Assessment of Dependent Performance Shaping Factors in SPAR-H Based on Pearson Correlation Coefficient

With the improvement of equipment reliability,human factors have become the most uncertain part in the system.The standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis(SPAR-H)method is a reliable method in the field of human reliability analysis(HRA)to evaluate human reliability and assess risk in large complex systems.However,the classical SPAR-H method does not consider the dependencies among performance shaping factors(PSFs),whichmay cause overestimation or underestimation of the risk of the actual situation.To address this issue,this paper proposes a new method to deal with the dependencies among PSFs in SPAR-H based on the Pearson correlation coefficient.First,the dependence between every two PSFs is measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient.Second,the weights of the PSFs are obtained by considering the total dependence degree.Finally,PSFs’multipliers are modified based on the weights of corresponding PSFs,and then used in the calculating of human error probability(HEP).A case study is used to illustrate the procedure and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Probabilistic back-analysis of rainfall-induced landslides for slope reliability prediction with multi-source information

Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source information(including test data,monitored data,field observation and slope survival records)is rarely used in current probabilistic back-analysis.Conducting the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating multi-source information is a challenging task since thousands of random variables and high-dimensional likelihood function are usually involved.In this paper,a framework by integrating a modified Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation(mBUS)method with adaptive Conditional Sampling(aCS)algorithm is established for the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction.Within this framework,the high-dimensional probabilistic back-analysis problem can be easily tackled,and the multi-source information(e.g.monitored pressure heads and slope survival records)can be fully used in the back-analysis.A real Taoyuan landslide case in Taiwan,China is investigated to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the established framework.The findings show that the posterior knowledge of soil parameters obtained from the established framework is in good agreement with the field observations.Furthermore,the updated knowledge of soil parameters can be utilized to reliably predict the occurrence probability of a landslide caused by the heavy rainfall event on September 12,2004 or forecast the potential landslides under future rainfalls in the Fuhsing District of Taoyuan City,Taiwan,China.

Non-crossing Quantile Regression Neural Network as a Calibration Tool for Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive performance.Nevertheless,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated forecasts.On this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without crossing.The overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive entries.The empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing models.Formal and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all competitors.Furthermore,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.

System Reliability Analysis Method Based on T-S FTA and HE-BN

For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertainty of fault states.To overcome these problems,this paper proposes a reliability analysismethod based on T-S fault tree analysis(T-S FTA)and Hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network(HE-BN).The method describes the connection between the various systemfault events by T-S fuzzy gates and translates them into a Bayesian network(BN)model.Combining the advantages of T-S fault tree modeling with the advantages of Bayesian network computation,a reliability modeling method is proposed that can fully reflect the fault characteristics of complex systems.Experts describe the degree of failure of the event in the form of interval numbers.The knowledge and experience of experts are fused with the D-S evidence theory to obtain the initial failure probability interval of the BN root node.Then,the Hyper-ellipsoidal model(HM)constrains the initial failure probability interval and constructs a HE-BN for the system.A reliability analysismethod is proposed to solve the problem of insufficient failure data and uncertainty in the degree of failure.The failure probability of the system is further calculated and the key components that affect the system’s reliability are identified.The proposedmethod accounts for the uncertainty and incompleteness of the failure data in complex multi-state systems and establishes an easily computable reliability model that fully reflects the characteristics of complex faults and accurately identifies system weaknesses.The feasibility and accuracy of the method are further verified by conducting case studies.

Belief reliability:a scientific exploration of reliability engineering

This paper systematically introduces and reviews a scientific exploration of reliability called the belief reliability.Beginning with the origin of reliability engineering,the problems of present theories for reliability engineering are summarized as a query,a dilemma,and a puzzle.Then,through philosophical reflection,we introduce the theoretical solutions given by belief reliability theory,including scientific principles,basic equations,reliability science experiments,and mathematical measures.The basic methods and technologies of belief reliability,namely,belief reliability analysis,function-oriented belief reliability design,belief reliability evaluation,and several newly developed methods and technologies are sequentially elaborated and overviewed.Based on the above investigations,we summarize the significance of belief reliability theory and make some prospects about future research,aiming to promote the development of reliability science and engineering.

Ultra Reliable Load-Aware Connection Management(LACM)Algorithm in WIA-FA Systems

The increasing demand for industrial automation and intelligence has put forward higher requirements for the reliability of industrial wireless communication technology.As an international standard based on 802.11,Wireless networks for Industrial Automation-Factory Automation(WIA-FA)greatly improves the reliability in factory automation scenarios by Time Division Multiple Access(TDMA).However,in ultra-dense WIA-FA networks with mobile users,the basic connection management mechanism is inefficient.Most of the handover and resource management algorithms are all based on frequency division multiplexing,not suitable for the TDMA in the WIA-FA network.Therefore,we propose Load-aware Connection Management(LACM)algorithm to adjust the linkage and balance the load of access devices to avoid blocking and improve the reliability of the system.And then we simulate the algorithm to find the optimal settings of the parameters.After comparing with other existing algorithms,the result of the simulation proves that LACM is more efficient in reliability and maintains high reliability of more than 99.8%even in the ultra-dense moving scenario with 1500 field devices.Besides,this algorithm ensures that only a few signaling exchanges are required to ensure load bal-ancing,which is no more than 5 times,and less than half of the best state-of-the-art algorithm.

Transparency:The Missing Link to Boosting AI Transformations in Chemical Engineering

The issue of opacity within data-driven artificial intelligence(AI)algorithms has become an impediment to these algorithms’extensive utilization,especially within sensitive domains concerning health,safety,and high profitability,such as chemical engineering(CE).In order to promote reliable AI utilization in CE,this review discusses the concept of transparency within AI utilizations,which is defined based on both explainable AI(XAI)concepts and key features from within the CE field.This review also highlights the requirements of reliable AI from the aspects of causality(i.e.,the correlations between the predictions and inputs of an AI),explainability(i.e.,the operational rationales of the workflows),and informativeness(i.e.,the mechanistic insights of the investigating systems).Related techniques are evaluated together with state-of-the-art applications to highlight the significance of establishing reliable AI applications in CE.Furthermore,a comprehensive transparency analysis case study is provided as an example to enhance understanding.Overall,this work provides a thorough discussion of this subject matter in a way that—for the first time—is particularly geared toward chemical engineers in order to raise awareness of responsible AI utilization.With this vital missing link,AI is anticipated to serve as a novel and powerful tool that can tremendously aid chemical engineers in solving bottleneck challenges in CE.

Mechanical Properties and Thermal Shock Resistance of SrAl_(2)Si_(2)O_(8) Reinforced BN Ceramic Composites

Hexagonal boron nitride(h-BN)ceramics have become exceptional materials for heat-resistant components in hypersonic vehicles,owing to their superior thermal stability and excellent dielectric properties.However,their densification during sintering still poses challenges for researchers,and their mechanical properties are rather unsatisfactory.In this study,SrAl_(2)Si_(2)O_(8)(SAS),with low melting point and high strength,was introduced into the h-BN ceramics to facilitate the sintering and reinforce the strength and toughness.Then,BN-SAS ceramic composites were fabricated via hot press sintering using h-BN,SrCO_(3),Al_(2)O_(3),and SiO_(2) as raw materials,and effects of sintering pressure on their microstructure,mechanical property,and thermal property were investigated.The thermal shock resistance of BN-SAS ceramic composites was evaluated.Results show that phases of as-preparedBN-SAS ceramic composites are h-BN and h-SrAl_(2)Si_(2)O_(8).With the increase of sintering pressure,the composites’densities increase,and the mechanical properties shew a rising trend followed by a slight decline.At a sintering pressure of 20 MPa,their bending strength and fracture toughness are(138±4)MPa and(1.84±0.05)MPa·m^(1/2),respectively.Composites sintered at 10 MPa exhibit a low coefficient of thermal expansion,with an average of 2.96×10^(-6) K^(-1) in the temperature range from 200 to 1200℃.The BN-SAS ceramic composites prepared at 20 MPa display higher thermal conductivity from 12.42 to 28.42 W·m^(-1)·K^(-1) within the temperature range from room temperature to 1000℃.Notably,BN-SAS composites exhibit remarkable thermal shock resistance,with residual bending strength peaking and subsequently declining sharply under a thermal shock temperature difference ranging from 600 to 1400℃.The maximum residual bending strength is recorded at a temperature difference of 800℃,with a residual strength retention rate of 101%.As the thermal shock temperature difference increase,the degree of oxidation on the ceramic surface and cracks due to thermal stress are also increased gradually.

On the relationship between imprint and reliability in Hf_(0.5)Zr_(0.5)O_(2) based ferroelectric random access memory

The detrimental effect of imprint,which can cause misreading problem,has hindered the application of ferroelectric HfO_(2).In this work,we present results of a comprehensive reliability evaluation of Hf_(0.5)Zr_(0.5)O_(2)-based ferroelectric random access memory.The influence of imprint on the retention and endurance is demonstrated.Furthermore,a solution in circuity is pro-posed to effectively solve the misreading problem caused by imprint.

Evaluation Test Research of DR Inspection System for Circumferential Welds in Long Distance Pipeline

Digital radiographic(DR)testing equipment has been widely promoted and applied in the inspection of circumferential welds in oil and gas pipelines.In order to establish a comprehensive quality control system for digital radiographic testing and fully evaluate the integrated system inspection ability of equipment,personnel,and processes,a scientific and standardized evaluation method to the system is very necessary.Here investigates the precedents of relevant non-destructive testing evaluation methods at home and abroad,considers the testing characteristics of DR equipment,develops a complete set of DR testing system evaluation procedures.It deeply studies the adaptability methods of program processes from defect production to slicing processing and data statistical calculation for digital radiographic testing evaluation.To check the repeatability and reliability of the detectable system,five process welds with 200 real metallographic defects were fabricated in the laboratory.From the detected results,the DR system has good repeatability in image quality,and the detectable defect size reaches 0.85 mm under achieving 90%detection probability at a confidence level of 95%,the error of detected defect length is±2 mm,and the error of detected defect localization is±5 mm.The qualitative and quantitative detection of defects are accurate and reliable.The test further confirmed the reliable detection ability of the DR detection system,and fully validated the scientific and practical evaluation method designed.The research on the evaluation test method can serve as an important link in the quality control system for the on-site application of digital ray equipment in long-distance pipelines.The designed program,test,and evaluation content can serve as an important basis for the formulation of relevant specifications or standards.

Spatial Coded Modulation:Coding over Antennas

In spatial modulation systems,the reliability of the active antenna detection is of vital importance since the modulated symbols tend to be correctly demodulated when the active antennas are accurately identified.In this paper,we propose a spatial coded modulation(SCM)scheme,which improves the accuracy of the active antenna detection by coding over the transmit antennas.Specifically,the antenna activation pattern in the SCM corresponds to a codeword in a properly designed codebook with a larger minimum Hamming distance than the conventional spatial modulation.As the minimum Hamming distance increases,the reliability of the active antenna detection is directly enhanced,which yields a better system reliability.In addition to the reliability,the proposed SCM scheme also achieves a higher capacity with the identical antenna configuration compared to the conventional counterpart.The optimal maximum likelihood detector is first formulated.Then,a low-complexity suboptimal detector is proposed to reduce the computational complexity.Theoretical derivations of the channel capacity and the bit error rate are presented in various channel scenarios.Further derivation on performance bounding is also provided to reveal the insight of the benefit of increasing the minimum Hamming distance.Numerical results validate the analysis and demonstrate that the proposed SCM outperforms the conventional spatial modulation techniques in both channel capacity and system reliability.

Reliability analysis of carbon fiber rod-reinforced umbilical cable under tension using an improved sampling method

The umbilical cable is a vital component of subsea production systems that provide power,chemical agents,control signals et al.,and its requirement for reliability is exceedingly high.However,as the umbilical cable is a composite structure comprising multiple functional units,the reliability analysis of such cables involves numerous parameters that can impact calculation efficiency.In this paper,the reliability analysis of a new kind of umbilical cable with carbon fiber rod under tension is analyzed.The global dynamic analytical model is first established to determine the maximum tension load,then the local analytical model of umbilical cable including each unit are constructed by finite element method(FEM).Based on the mechanical analytical model,the reliability of umbilical cable under tension load is studied using response surface method(RSM)and Monte Carlo method.During the calculation process,a new tangent plane sampling method to calculate the response surface function(RSF)is proposed in this paper,which could make sampling points faster come close to the RSF curve,and it is proved that the calculation efficiency increases about 33%comparing with traditional method.

A non-probabilistic reliability topology optimization method based on aggregation function and matrix multiplication considering buckling response constraints

A non-probabilistic reliability topology optimization method is proposed based on the aggregation function and matrix multiplication.The expression of the geometric stiffness matrix is derived,the finite element linear buckling analysis is conducted,and the sensitivity solution of the linear buckling factor is achieved.For a specific problem in linear buckling topology optimization,a Heaviside projection function based on the exponential smooth growth is developed to eliminate the gray cells.The aggregation function method is used to consider the high-order eigenvalues,so as to obtain continuous sensitivity information and refined structural design.With cyclic matrix programming,a fast topology optimization method that can be used to efficiently obtain the unit assembly and sensitivity solution is conducted.To maximize the buckling load,under the constraint of the given buckling load,two types of topological optimization columns are constructed.The variable density method is used to achieve the topology optimization solution along with the moving asymptote optimization algorithm.The vertex method and the matching point method are used to carry out an uncertainty propagation analysis,and the non-probability reliability topology optimization method considering buckling responses is developed based on the transformation of non-probability reliability indices based on the characteristic distance.Finally,the differences in the structural topology optimization under different reliability degrees are illustrated by examples.

Establishment of quantitative evaluation system for cochlear implant effectiveness for hearing-impaired children

Introduction:Cochlear implant is currently the most widely proven interventions for auditory rehabilitation for children with severe sensorineural hearing impairment.However,there are obvious limitations in these current evaluation methods.This study aims to develop an evaluation system for quantitatively evaluating the effectiveness of cochlear implants for hearing-impaired children.Methods:A correspondence questionnaire was developed based on an initial indicator system that was developed based on the literature focused on the evaluation of cochlear implant outcomes in children.Twenty-five experts in otology,clinical audiology,rehabilitation audiology,and mental health from nine provinces in China were consulted.The degree of authority and coordination of experts and the indicators and weights of the quantitative evaluation system were analyzed.Seventy-eight children aged 3–11 years after cochlear implantation were recruited from two centers in Hubei province to evaluate the reliability and validity of the quantitative evaluation system.Results:The opinions of experts converged after the second round of correspondence,and the coordination and authority of the expert consensus were met.The recall rate of the questionnaire was 100%for both rounds.Five secondary indicators,including auditory ability,verbal ability,behavioral assessment,learning capabilities,and quality of life,and 13 tertiary indicators were reserved for the evaluation of cochlear implant effectiveness.The weight of each indicator was calculated.The Cronbach’sαcoefficient of the quantitative evaluation system based on the standardized items was 0.930,and the three extracted common factors could explain 78.86%of the total variance.Conclusions:An expert consensus-based evaluation system that can quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of cochlear implants in children has been developed with good reliability and validity.

Hybrid response surface method for system reliability analysis of pilereinforced slopes

To consider the complex soil-structure interaction in a pile-slope system,it is necessary to analyze the performance of pile-slope systems based on a three-dimensional(3D)numerical model.Reliability analysis of a pile-slope system based on 3D numerical modeling is very challenging because it is computationally expensive and the performance function of the pile failure mode is only defined in the safe domain of soil stability.In this paper,an efficient hybrid response surface method is suggested to study the system reliability of pile-reinforced slopes,where the support vector machine and the Kriging model are used to approximate performance functions of soil failure and pile failure,respectively.The versatility of the suggested method is illustrated in detail with an example.For the example examined in this paper,it is found that the pile failure can significantly contribute to system failure,and the reinforcement ratio can effectively reduce the probability of pile failure.There exists a critical reinforcement ratio beyond which the system failure probability is not sensitive to the reinforcement ratio.The pile spacing affects both the probabilities of soil failure and pile failure of the pile-reinforced slope.There exists an optimal location and an optimal length for the stabilizing piles.

Development and validation of a novel questionnaire regarding vision screening among preschool teachers in Malaysia

AIM:To develop and evaluate the validity and reliability of a knowledge,attitude,and practice questionnaire related to vision screening(KAP-VST)among preschool teachers in Malaysia.METHODS:The questionnaire was developed through a literature review and discussions with experts.Content and face validation were conducted by a panel of experts(n=10)and preschool teachers(n=10),respectively.A pilot study was conducted for construct validation(n=161)and test-retest reliability(n=60)of the newly developed questionnaire.RESULTS:Based on the content and face validation,71 items were generated,and 68 items were selected after exploratory factor analysis.The content validity index for items(I-CVI)score ranged from 0.8-1.0,and the content validity index for scale(S-CVI)/Ave was 0.99.Internal consistency was KR^(2)0=0.93 for knowledge,Cronbach’s alpha=0.758 for attitude,and Cronbach’s alpha=0.856 for practice.CONCLUSION:The KAP-VST is a valid and reliable instrument for assessing knowledge,attitude,and practice in relation to vision screening among preschool teachers in Malaysia.

A Planning Method for Operational Test of UAV Swarm Based on Mission Reliability

The unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)swarm plays an increasingly important role in the modern battlefield,and the UAV swarm operational test is a vital means to validate the combat effectiveness of the UAV swarm.Due to the high cost and long duration of operational tests,it is essential to plan the test in advance.To solve the problem of planning UAV swarm operational test,this study considers the multi-stage feature of a UAV swarm mission,composed of launch,flight and combat stages,and proposes a method to find test plans that can maximize mission reliability.Therefore,a multi-stage mission reliability model for a UAV swarm is proposed to ensure successful implementation of the mission.A multi-objective integer optimization method that considers both mission reliability and cost is then formulated to obtain the optimal test plans.This study first constructs a mission reliability model for the UAV swarm in the combat stage.Then,the launch stage and flight stage are integrated to develop a complete PMS(Phased Mission Systems)reliability model.Finally,the Binary Decision Diagrams(BDD)and Multi Objective Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization(MOQPSO)methods are proposed to solve the model.The optimal plans considering both reliability and cost are obtained.The proposed model supports the planning of UAV swarm operational tests and represents a meaningful exploration of UAV swarm test planning.

A review of extreme condition effects on solder joint reliability:Understanding failure mechanisms

Solder joint,crucial component in electronic systems,face significant challenges when exposed to extreme conditions during applications.The solder joint reliability involving microstructure and mechanical properties will be affected by extreme conditions.Understanding the behaviour of solder joints under extreme conditions is vital to determine the durability and reliability of solder joint.This review paper aims to comprehensively explore the underlying failure mechanism affecting solder joint reliability under extreme conditions.This study covers an in-depth analysis of effect extreme temperature,mechanical stress,and radiation conditions towards solder joint.Impact of each condition to the microstructure including solder matrix and intermetallic compound layer,and mechanical properties such as fatigue,shear strength,creep,and hardness was thoroughly discussed.The failure mechanisms were illustrated in graphical diagrams to ensure clarity and understanding.Furthermore,the paper highlighted mitigation strategies that enhancing solder joint reliability under challenging operating conditions.The findings offer valuable guidance for researchers,engineers,and practitioners involved in electronics,engineering,and related fields,fostering advancements in solder joint reliability and performance.

Introduction to the Special Issue on Computer-Aided Uncertainty Modeling and Reliability Evaluation for Complex Engineering Structures

1 Summary With the advancement of science and technology,complex engineering structures are widely used in extreme environments[1].In equipment service,many uncertainty factors significantly affect safety and reliability[2–5].Therefore,ensuring high reliability of structures has become an important research direction in engineering design.At the same time,the importance of equipment health management of complex engineering structures is becoming increasingly prominent[6–8].Computer-aided uncertainty modeling and reliability assessment have become key tools,and finite element simulation and algorithmic innovation play a key role in the reliability analysis of complex equipment[9,10].These techniques can accurately simulate stress and damage accumulation under various operating environments,providing engineers with important decision support and optimization solutions.

Probabilistic-Ellipsoid Hybrid Reliability Multi-Material Topology Optimization Method Based on Stress Constraint

This paper proposes a multi-material topology optimization method based on the hybrid reliability of the probability-ellipsoid model with stress constraint for the stochastic uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty of mechanical loads in optimization design.The probabilistic model is combined with the ellipsoidal model to describe the uncertainty of mechanical loads.The topology optimization formula is combined with the ordered solid isotropic material with penalization(ordered-SIMP)multi-material interpolation model.The stresses of all elements are integrated into a global stress measurement that approximates the maximum stress using the normalized p-norm function.Furthermore,the sequential optimization and reliability assessment(SORA)is applied to transform the original uncertainty optimization problem into an equivalent deterministic topology optimization(DTO)problem.Stochastic response surface and sparse grid technique are combined with SORA to get accurate information on the most probable failure point(MPP).In each cycle,the equivalent topology optimization formula is updated according to the MPP information obtained in the previous cycle.The adjoint variable method is used for deriving the sensitivity of the stress constraint and the moving asymptote method(MMA)is used to update design variables.Finally,the validity and feasibility of the method are verified by the numerical example of L-shape beam design,T-shape structure design,steering knuckle,and 3D T-shaped beam.