Progress and prospects of EOR technology in deep,massive sandstone reservoirs with a strong bottom-water drive

The Triassic massive sandstone reservoir in the Tahe oilfield has a strong bottom-water drive and is characterized by great burial depth,high temperature and salinity,a thin pay zone,and strong heterogeneity.At present,the water-cut is high in each block within the reservoir;some wells are at an ultrahigh water-cut stage.A lack of effective measures to control water-cut rise and stabilize oil production have necessitated the application of enhanced oil recovery(EOR)technology.This paper investigates the development and technological advances for oil reservoirs with strong edge/bottom-water drive globally,and compares their application to reservoirs with characteristics similar to the Tahe oilfield.Among the technological advances,gas injection from the top and along the direction of structural dip has been used to optimize the flow field in a typical bottom-water drive reservoir.Bottom-water coning is restrained by gas injection-assisted water control.In addition,increasing the lateral driving pressure differential improves the plane sweep efficiency which enhances oil recovery in turn.Gas injection technology in combination with technological measures like channeling prevention and blocking,and water plugging and profile control,can achieve better results in reservoir development.Gas flooding tests in the Tahe oilfield are of great significance to identifying which EOR technology is the most effective and has the potential of large-scale application for improving development of deep reservoirs with a strong bottomwater drive.

Distribution rules of remaining oil by bottom water flooding and potential exploitation strategy in fault-controlled fractured-vuggy reservoirs

Based on the tectonic genesis and seismic data of fault-controlled fractured-vuggy reservoirs,the typical fractured-vuggy structure features were analyzed.A 3D large-scale visual physical model of“tree-like”fractured-vuggy structure was designed and made.The experiments of bottom-water flooding and multi-media synergistic oil displacement after bottom-water flooding were conducted with different production rates and different well-reservoir configuration relationships.The formation mechanisms and distribution rules of residual oil during bottom-water flooding under such fractured-vuggy structure were revealed.The producing characteristics of residual oil under different production methods after bottom-water flooding were discovered.The results show that the remaining oil in"tree-like"fractured-vuggy structure after bottom-water flooding mainly include the remaining oil of non-well controlled fault zones and the attic remaining oil at the top of well controlled fault zones.There exists obvious water channeling of bottom-water along the fault at high production rate,but intermittent drainage can effectively weaken the interference effect between fault zones to inhibit water channeling.Compared with the vertical well,horizontal well can reduce the difference in flow conductivity between fault zones and show better resistance to water channeling.The closer the horizontal well locates to the upper part of the“canopy”,the higher the oil recovery is at the bottom-water flooding stage.However,comprehensive consideration of the bottom-water flooding and subsequent gas injection development,the total recovery is higher when the horizontal well locates in the middle part of the“canopy”and drills through a large number of fault zones.After bottom water flooding,the effect of gas huff and puff is better than that of gas flooding,and the effect of gas huff and puff with large slug is better than that of small slug.Because such development method can effectively develop the remaining oil of non-well controlled fault zones and the attic remaining oil at the top of well controlled fault zones transversely connected with oil wells,thus greatly improving the oil recovery.

Study on Optimal Water ControlMethods for Horizontal Wells in Bottom Water Clastic Rock Reservoirs

The segmented water control technology for bottom water reservoirs can effectively delay the entry of bottom water and adjust the production profile.To clarify the impact of different methods on horizontal well production with different reservoir conditions and to provide theoretical support for the scientific selection of methods for bottom water reservoirs,a numerical simulation method is presented in this study,which is able to deal with wellbore reservoir coupling under screen tube,perforation,and ICD(Inflow Control Device)completion.Assuming the geological characteristics of the bottom-water conglomerate reservoir in the Triassic Formation of the Tahe Block 9 as a test case,the three aforementioned completion methods are tested to predict the transient production characteristics.The impact of completion parameters,reservoir permeability,bottom-water energy,and individual well control on the time to encounter water in horizontal wells(during a water-free production period)is discussed.A boundary chart for the selection of completion methods is introduced accordingly.The results show that the optimized ICD completion development effect for heterogeneous reservoirs is the best,followed by optimized perforation completion.Permeability is the main factor affecting the performances of completion methods,while bottom water energy and single well controlled reserves have a scarce impact.The average permeability of the reservoir is less than 500 mD,and ICD has the best water control effect.If the permeability is greater than 500 mD,the water control effect of perforation completion becomes a better option.

Effect of CO_(2)flooding in an oil reservoir with strong bottom-water drive in the Tahe Oilfield,Tarim Basin,Northwest China

The dissolution and diffusion of CO_(2)in oil and water and its displacement mechanism were investigated by laboratory experiment and numerical simulation for Block 9 in the Tahe oilfield,a sandstone oil reservoir with strong bottom-water drive in Tarim Basin,Northwest China.Such parameters were analyzed as solubility ratio of CO_(2)in oil,gas and water,interfacial tension,in-situ oil viscosity distribution,remaining oil saturation distribution,and oil compositions.The results show that CO_(2)flooding could control water coning and increase oil production.In the early stage of the injection process,CO_(2)expanded vertically due to gravity differentiation,and extended laterally under the action of strong bottom water in the intermediate and late stages.The CO_(2)got enriched and extended at the oil-water interface,forming a high interfacial tension zone,which inhibited the coning of bottom water to some extent.A miscible region with low interfacial tension formed at the gas injection front,which reduced the in-situ oil viscosity by about 50%.The numerical simulation results show that enhanced oil recovery(EOR)is estimated at 5.72%and the oil exchange ratio of CO_(2)is 0.17 t/t.

Phase-matching enhanced quantum phase and amplitude estimation of a two-level system in a squeezed reservoir

Squeezed reservoir engineering is a powerful technique in quantum information that combines the features of squeezing and reservoir engineering to create and stabilize non-classical quantum states. In this paper, we focus on the previously neglected aspect of the impact of the squeezing phase on the precision of quantum phase and amplitude estimation based on a simple model of a two-level system(TLS) interacting with a squeezed reservoir. We derive the optimal squeezed phase-matching conditions for phase φ and amplitude θ parameters, which are crucial for enhancing the precision of quantum parameter estimation. The robustness of the squeezing-enhanced quantum Fisher information against departures from these conditions is examined, demonstrating that minor deviations from phase-matching can still result in remarkable precision of estimation. Additionally, we provide a geometric interpretation of the squeezed phase-matching conditions from the classical motion of a TLS on the Bloch sphere. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding of the operational requirements for employing squeezed reservoir engineering to advance quantum parameter estimation.

Carboniferous-Early Permian heterogeneous distribution of porous carbonate reservoirs in the Central Uplift of the South Yellow Sea Basin and its hydrocarbon potential analysis

Mesozoic-Palaeozoic marine carbonate rocks are crucial hydrocarbon reservoirs in the Central Uplift area of the South Yellow Sea Basin(SYSB).Due to the scarcity of boreholes and the significant heterogeneity of carbonate reservoirs,the distribution of porous carbonate reservoirs and their related key controlling factors remain unclear.In this study,factors affecting the distribution of porous Carboniferous-Early Permian carbonate reservoirs in the SYSB were investigated through seismic inversion and isotope analysis.The log-seismic characteristics of porous carbonate reservoirs,sensitive lithology parameters,and physical property parameters were extracted and analyzed.The pre-stack simultaneous inversion technique was applied to predict the lithology and physical properties of porous carbonate reservoirs.Moreover,the sedimentary of carbonate was analyzed using isotopes of carbon,oxygen,and strontium.The results show that porous carbonate reservoirs are mainly developed in the open platform sediments with porosities of 3%-5%and are mainly distributed in the paleo-highland(Huanglong Formation and Chuanshan Formation)and the slope of paleo-highland(Hezhou Formation).The porous carbonate reservoirs of the Qixia Formation are only locally developed.In addition,the negativeδ13C excursions indicate a warm and humid tropical climate with three sea-level fluctuations in the study area from the Carboniferous to Early Permian.The favorable conditions for developing porous carbonate rocks include the sedimentary environment and diagenetic process.The primary pore tends to form in high-energy environments of the paleo-highland,and the secondary pore is increased by dissolution during the syngenetic or quasi-syngenetic period.According to the hydrocarbon potential analysis,the Late Ordovician Wufeng Formation and Lower Silurian Gaojiabian Formation are the source rocks in the high-maturity-over-maturity stage,the Carboniferous-Lower Permian carbonate is the good reservoirs,and the Late Permian Longtan-Dalong Formation is the stable seal,ensuring a huge hydrocarbon accumulation potential in SYSB.The methods proposed in this study can be applied to other carbonate-dominated strata worldwide.

Impact of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services Values in Danjiangkou Reservoir Area,China in the Context of National Water Network Project Construction

Investigating the ecological impact of land use change in the context of the construction of national water network project is crucial,as it is imperative for achieving the sustainable development goals of the national water network and guaranteeing regional ecological stability.Using the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area(DRA),China as the study area,this paper first examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of natural landscape patterns and ecosystem service values(ESV)in the DRA from 2000 to 2018 and then investigated the spatial clustering characteristics of the ESV using spatial statistical analysis tools.Finally,the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model was used to simulate the natural landscape and future changes in the ESV of the DRA from 2018 to 2028 under four different development scenarios:business as usual(BAU),economic development(ED),ecological protection(EP),and shoreline protection(SP).The results show that:during 2000-2018,the construction of water facilities had a significant impact on regional land use/land cover(LULC)change,with a 24830 ha increase in watershed area.ESV exhibited an increasing trend,with a significant and growing spatial clustering effect.The transformation of farmland to water bodies led to accelerated ESV growth,while the transformation of forest land to farmland led to a decrease in the ESV.Normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)had the strongest effect on the ESV.ESV exhibited a continuous increase from 2018 to 2028 under all the simulation scenarios.The EP scenario had the greatest increase in ESV,while the ED scenario had the smallest increase.The findings suggest that projected land use patterns under different scenarios have varied impacts on ecosystem services(ESs)and that the management and planning of the DRA should balance social,economic,ecological,and security benefits.nomic,ecological,and security benefits.

The critical rate of horizontal wells in bottom-water reservoirs with an impermeable barrier

Barrier impacts on water cut and critical rate of horizontal wells in bottom water-drive reservoirs have been recognized but not investigated quantitatively. Considering the existence of impermeable barriers in oil formations, this paper developed a horizontal well flow model and obtained mathematical equations for the critical rate when water cresting forms in bottom-water reservoirs. The result shows that the barrier increases the critical rate and delays water breakthrough. Further study of the barrier size and location shows that increases in the barrier size and the distance between the barrier and oil-water contact lead to higher critical rates. The critical rate gradually approaches a constant as the barrier size increases. The case study shows the method presented here can be used to predict the critical rate in a bottom-water reservoir and applied to investigate the water cresting behavior of horizontal wells.

A novel steady-state productivity equation for horizontal wells in bottom water drive gas reservoirs

It is known that there is a discrepancy between field data and the results predicted from the previous equations derived by simplifying three-dimensional（3-D） flow into two-dimensions（2-D）.This paper presents a new steady-state productivity equation for horizontal wells in bottom water drive gas reservoirs.Firstly,the fundamental solution to the 3-D steady-state Laplace equation is derived with the philosophy of source and the Green function for a horizontal well located at the center of the laterally infinite gas reservoir.Then,using the fundamental solution and the Simpson integral formula,the average pseudo-pressure equation and the steady-state productivity equation are achieved for the horizontal section.Two case-studies are given in the paper,the results calculated from the newly-derived formula are very close to the numerical simulation performed with the Canadian software CMG and the real production data,indicating that the new formula can be used to predict the steady-state productivity of such horizontal gas wells.

A new mathematical model for horizontal wells with variable density perforation completion in bottom water reservoirs

Horizontal wells are commonly used in bottom water reservoirs,which can increase contact area between wellbores and reservoirs.There are many completion methods used to control cresting,among which variable density perforation is an effective one.It is difficult to evaluate well productivity and to analyze inflow profiles of horizontal wells with quantities of unevenly distributed perforations,which are characterized by different parameters.In this paper,fluid flow in each wellbore perforation,as well as the reservoir,was analyzed.A comprehensive model,coupling the fluid flow in the reservoir and the wellbore pressure drawdown,was developed based on potential functions and solved using the numerical discrete method.Then,a bottom water cresting model was established on the basis of the piston-like displacement principle.Finally,bottom water cresting parameters and factors influencing inflow profile were analyzed.A more systematic optimization method was proposed by introducing the concept of cumulative free-water production,which could maintain a balance（or then a balance is achieved）between stabilizing oil production and controlling bottom water cresting.Results show that the inflow profile is affected by the perforation distribution.Wells with denser perforation density at the toe end and thinner density at the heel end may obtain low production,but the water breakthrough time is delayed.Taking cumulative free-water production as a parameter to evaluate perforation strategies is advisable in bottom water reservoirs.

A novel method for predicting breakthrough time of horizontal wells in bottom water reservoirs

Dimensional analysis and numerical simulations were carried out to research prediction method of breakthrough time of horizontal wells in bottom water reservoir. Four dimensionless independent variables and dimensionless time were derived from 10 influencing factors of the problem by using dimensional analysis. Simulations of horizontal well in reservoir with bottom water were run to find the prediction correlation. A general and concise functional relationship for predicting breakthrough time was established based on simulation results and theoretical analysis. The breakthrough time of one conceptual model predicted by the correlation is very close to the result by Eclipse with less than 2% error. The practical breakthrough time of one well in Helder oilfield is 10 d, and the predicted results by the method is 11.2 d, which is more accurate than the analytical result. Case study indicates that the method could predict breakthrough time of horizontal well under different reservoir conditions accurately. For its university and ease of use, the method is suitable for quick prediction of breakthrough time.

Critical parameters of horizontal well influenced by semi-permeable barrier in bottom water reservoir

It is well-known that barriers have a significant impact on the production performance of horizontal wells developed in a bottom water drive reservoir. In most cases, reservoir barriers are semi-permeable. Based on previous research on impermeable reservoir barrier, a mathematical flow model was derived for a horizontal well of a bottom water drive reservoir with a semi-permeable barrier. Besides, analytical equations were also presented to calculate critical parameters, such as production rate,pressure and potential difference. The effects of barrier, well and reservoir parameters on our model results were further investigated.The results show that the larger the barrier size is or the higher the barrier location is, the higher the critical production rate and potential difference of a horizontal well are. When the barrier permeability equals the formation permeability or the barrier width equals zero, the critical production rates converge to the values same to that of the case with no barrier. When the barrier permeability equals zero, the problem is regarded as a case of impermeable barrier. This model can be applied to predicting horizontal wells' critical production parameters in reservoirs with semi-permeable barriers.

Experimental and Numerical Assessment of the Influence of Bottomhole Pressure Drawdown on Terrigenous Reservoir Permeability and Well Productivity

During oil and gas fields development,a decrease in reservoir and bottomhole pressure has often a detrimental effect on reservoir properties,especially permeability.This study presents the results of laboratory tests conducted to determine the response of terrigenous reservoir core-sample permeability to changes in the effective stresses and a decrease in the reservoir pressure.The considered samples were exposed for a long time to a constant high effective stress for a more reliable assessment of the viscoplastic deformations.According to these experiments,the decrease of the core samples permeability may reach 21%with a decrease in pressure by 9.5 MPa from the initial reservoir conditions.Numerical simulations have been also conducted.These have been based on the finite element modeling of the near-wellbore zone of the terrigenous reservoir using poroelasticity relations.The simulation results show a limited decrease in reservoir permeability in the near-wellbore zone(by 17%,which can lead to a decrease in the well productivity by 13%).

A SEMI-ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR CHARACTERISTICS OF A DAMRESERVOIR SYSTEM WITH ABSORPTIVE RESERVOIR BOTTOM

In this study, a semi-analytical formulation based on the Scaled Boundary Finite Element Method （SBFEM） was proposed and used to obtain the solution for the characteristics of a two-dimensional dam-reservoir system with absorptive reservoir bottom in the frequency domain. For simplicity, the dam with arbitrary upstream faces was assumed to be rigid and was subjected to a horizontal ground acceleration, while the reservoir with absorptive bottom was assumed to be semi-infinite. The reservoir was divided into two sub-domains： a near-field sub-domain and a far-field sub-domain. The near-field sub-domain with arbitrary geometry was modelled by the Finite Element Method （FEM）, while the effects of the far-field sub-domain which was assumed to be horizontal were described by a semi-analytical formation. The semi-analytical formulation involved the effect of absorptive reservoir bottom, as well as the radiation damping effect of a semi-infinite reservoir. A FEM/SBFEM coupling formulation was presented to solve dam-reservoir coupled problems. The accuracy and efficiency of the coupling formulation were demonstrated by computing some benchmark examples. Highly accurate results are produced even if the near-field sub-domain is very small.

Identification of Interlayer in Strong Bottom Water Reservoir and Its Influence on Development Effect

X oilfield is located in Bohai Sea area, in which G oil formation is a typical drape anticline structure, which is composed of multiple sets of thick sandy conglomerate and multiple sets of argillaceous intercalation. From the perspective of development effect, muddy interlayer has a great impact on the oilfield. In this paper, through core identification and well logging identification, the electrical discrimination standard is summarized to identify the interlayer. Through statistics and analysis of the production performance of actual wells, the influence of muddy interlayer on the development performance of oil wells is summarized. This study provides guidance for the development of strong bottom water reservoirs with interlayer.

A review of reservoir damage during hydraulic fracturing of deep and ultra-deep reservoirs

Deep and ultra-deep reservoirs have gradually become the primary focus of hydrocarbon exploration as a result of a series of significant discoveries in deep hydrocarbon exploration worldwide.These reservoirs present unique challenges due to their deep burial depth(4500-8882 m),low matrix permeability,complex crustal stress conditions,high temperature and pressure(HTHP,150-200℃,105-155 MPa),coupled with high salinity of formation water.Consequently,the costs associated with their exploitation and development are exceptionally high.In deep and ultra-deep reservoirs,hydraulic fracturing is commonly used to achieve high and stable production.During hydraulic fracturing,a substantial volume of fluid is injected into the reservoir.However,statistical analysis reveals that the flowback rate is typically less than 30%,leaving the majority of the fluid trapped within the reservoir.Therefore,hydraulic fracturing in deep reservoirs not only enhances the reservoir permeability by creating artificial fractures but also damages reservoirs due to the fracturing fluids involved.The challenging“three-high”environment of a deep reservoir,characterized by high temperature,high pressure,and high salinity,exacerbates conventional forms of damage,including water sensitivity,retention of fracturing fluids,rock creep,and proppant breakage.In addition,specific damage mechanisms come into play,such as fracturing fluid decomposition at elevated temperatures and proppant diagenetic reactions at HTHP conditions.Presently,the foremost concern in deep oil and gas development lies in effectively assessing the damage inflicted on these reservoirs by hydraulic fracturing,comprehending the underlying mechanisms,and selecting appropriate solutions.It's noteworthy that the majority of existing studies on reservoir damage primarily focus on conventional reservoirs,with limited attention given to deep reservoirs and a lack of systematic summaries.In light of this,our approach entails initially summarizing the current knowledge pertaining to the types of fracturing fluids employed in deep and ultra-deep reservoirs.Subsequently,we delve into a systematic examination of the damage processes and mechanisms caused by fracturing fluids within the context of hydraulic fracturing in deep reservoirs,taking into account the unique reservoir characteristics of high temperature,high pressure,and high in-situ stress.In addition,we provide an overview of research progress related to high-temperature deep reservoir fracturing fluid and the damage of aqueous fracturing fluids to rock matrix,both artificial and natural fractures,and sand-packed fractures.We conclude by offering a summary of current research advancements and future directions,which hold significant potential for facilitating the efficient development of deep oil and gas reservoirs while effectively mitigating reservoir damage.

Thermo-hydro-poro-mechanical responses of a reservoir-induced landslide tracked by high-resolution fiber optic sensing nerves

Thermo-poro-mechanical responses along sliding zone/surface have been extensively studied.However,it has not been recognized that the potential contribution of other crucial engineering geological interfaces beyond the slip surface to progressive failure.Here,we aim to investigate the subsurface multiphysics of reservoir landslides under two extreme hydrologic conditions(i.e.wet and dry),particularly within sliding masses.Based on ultra-weak fiber Bragg grating(UWFBG)technology,we employ specialpurpose fiber optic sensing cables that can be implanted into boreholes as“nerves of the Earth”to collect data on soil temperature,water content,pore water pressure,and strain.The Xinpu landslide in the middle reach of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China was selected as a case study to establish a paradigm for in situ thermo-hydro-poro-mechanical monitoring.These UWFBG-based sensing cables were vertically buried in a 31 m-deep borehole at the foot of the landslide,with a resolution of 1 m except for the pressure sensor.We reported field measurements covering the period 2021 and 2022 and produced the spatiotemporal profiles throughout the borehole.Results show that wet years are more likely to motivate landslide motions than dry years.The annual thermally active layer of the landslide has a critical depth of roughly 9 m and might move downward in warmer years.The dynamic groundwater table is located at depths of 9e15 m,where the peaked strain undergoes a periodical response of leap and withdrawal to annual hydrometeorological cycles.These interface behaviors may support the interpretation of the contribution of reservoir regulation to slope stability,allowing us to correlate them to local damage events and potential global destabilization.This paper also offers a natural framework for interpreting thermo-hydro-poro-mechanical signatures from creeping reservoir bank slopes,which may form the basis for a landslide monitoring and early warning system.

Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

Synergistic anionic/zwitterionic mixed surfactant system with high emulsification efficiency for enhanced oil recovery in low permeability reservoirs

Emulsification is one of the important mechanisms of surfactant flooding. To improve oil recovery for low permeability reservoirs, a highly efficient emulsification oil flooding system consisting of anionic surfactant sodium alkyl glucosyl hydroxypropyl sulfonate(APGSHS) and zwitterionic surfactant octadecyl betaine(BS-18) is proposed. The performance of APGSHS/BS-18 mixed surfactant system was evaluated in terms of interfacial tension, emulsification capability, emulsion size and distribution, wettability alteration, temperature-resistance and salt-resistance. The emulsification speed was used to evaluate the emulsification ability of surfactant systems, and the results show that mixed surfactant systems can completely emulsify the crude oil into emulsions droplets even under low energy conditions. Meanwhile,the system exhibits good temperature and salt resistance. Finally, the best oil recovery of 25.45% is achieved for low permeability core by the mixed surfactant system with a total concentration of 0.3 wt%while the molar ratio of APGSHS:BS-18 is 4:6. The current study indicates that the anionic/zwitterionic mixed surfactant system can improve the oil flooding efficiency and is potential candidate for application in low permeability reservoirs.

Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

Historically,landslides have been the primary type of geological disaster worldwide.Generally,the stability of reservoir banks is primarily affected by rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations.Moreover,the stability of reservoir banks changes with the long-term dynamics of external disastercausing factors.Thus,assessing the time-varying reliability of reservoir landslides remains a challenge.In this paper,a machine learning(ML)based approach is proposed to analyze the long-term reliability of reservoir bank landslides in spatially variable soils through time series prediction.This study systematically investigated the prediction performances of three ML algorithms,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM).Additionally,the effects of the data quantity and data ratio on the predictive power of deep learning models are considered.The results show that all three ML models can accurately depict the changes in the time-varying failure probability of reservoir landslides.The CNN model outperforms both the MLP and LSTM models in predicting the failure probability.Furthermore,selecting the right data ratio can improve the prediction accuracy of the failure probability obtained by ML models.