Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

Comparative study of model tests on automatically formed roadway and gob-side entry driving in deep coal mines

Automatically formed roadway(AFR)by roof cutting with bolt grouting(RCBG)is a new deep coal mining technology.By using this technology,the broken roadway roof is strengthened,and roof cutting is applied to cut off stress transfer between the roadway and gob to ensure the collapse of the overlying strata.The roadway is automatically formed owing to the broken expansion characteristics of the collapsed strata and mining pressure.Taking the Suncun Coal Mine as the engineering background,the control effect of this new technology on roadways was studied.To compare the law of stress evolution and the surrounding rock control mechanisms between AFR and traditional gob-side entry driving,a comparative study of geomechanical model tests on the above methods was carried out.The results showed that the new technology of AFR by RCBG effectively reduced the stress concentration of the roadway compared with gob-side entry driving.The side abutment pressure peak of the solid coal side was reduced by 24.3%,which showed an obvious pressure-releasing effect.Moreover,the position of the side abutment pressure peak was far from the solid coal side,making it more beneficial for roadway stability.The deformation of AFR surrounding rock was also smaller than the deformation of the gob-side entry driving by the overload test.The former was more beneficial for roadway stability than the latter under higher stress conditions.Field application tests showed that the new technology can effectively control roadway deformation.Moreover,the technology reduced roadway excavation and avoided resource waste caused by reserved coal pillars.

Distribution Characteristics and Accumulation Model for the Coal-formed Gas Generated from Permo-Carboniferous Coal Measures in Bohai Bay Basin, China: A Review

Coal-formed gas generated from the Permo-Carboniferous coal measures has become one of the most important targets for deep hydrocarbon exploration in the Bohai Bay Basin,offshore eastern China.However,the proven gas reserves from this source rock remain low to date,and the distribution characteristics and accumulation model for the coal-formed gas are not clear.Here we review the coal-formed gas deposits formed from the Permo-Carboniferous coal measures in the Bohai Bay Basin.The accumulations are scattered,and dominated by middle-small sized gas fields,of which the proven reserves ranging from 0.002 to 149.4×108 m3 with an average of 44.30×108 m3 and a mid-point of 8.16×108 m3.The commercially valuable gas fields are mainly found in the central and southern parts of the basin.Vertically,the coal-formed gas is accumulated at multiple stratigraphic levels from Paleogene to Archaeozoic,among which the Paleogene and PermoCarboniferous are the main reservoir strata.According to the transporting pathway,filling mechanism and the relationship between source rocks and reservoir,the coal-formed gas accumulation model can be defined into three types:"Upward migrated,fault transported gas"accumulation model,"Laterally migrated,sandbody transported gas"accumulation model,and"Downward migrated,sub-source,fracture transported gas"accumulation model.Source rock distribution,thermal evolution and hydrocarbon generation capacity are the fundamental controlling factors for the macro distribution and enrichment of the coal-formed gas.The fault activity and the configuration of fault and caprock control the vertical enrichment pattern.

Kagome Project:Physical and Numerical Modeling Comparison for a Post-formed Elastic Gridshell

An elastic gridshell is an efficient constructive typology for crossing large spans with little material.A flat elastic grid is built before buckling the structure into shape,in active and post-formed bending.The design and structural analysis of such a structure requires a stage of form finding that can mainly be done:(1)With a physical model:either by a suspended net method,or an active bending model;(2)With a numerical model performed by dynamic relaxation.All these solutions have various biases and assumptions that make them reflect more or less the reality.These three methods have been applied by Happold and Liddell[1]during the design of the Frei Otto’s Mannheim Gridshell which has allowed us to compare the results,and to highlight the significant differences between digital and physical models.Based on our own algorithm called ELASTICA[2],our study focuses on:(1)Comparing the results of the ELASTICA’s numerical models to load tests on physical models;(2)The identification of the various factors that can influence the results and explain the observed differences,some of which are then studied;(3)Applying the results to build a full-scale interlaced lattice elastic gridshell based on the Japanese Kagome pattern.

Polycrystalline model for FE-simulation of micro forming processes

A new polycrystal model was presented from the viewpoint of polycrystal structure of the billets considering free surface effects.In the model,the billet was divided into three portions,such as free surface portion,transition portion and internal portion.The grains in free surface portion were considered the single grains,and the anisotropy of the grains was taken into account by introducing grain orientation to explain the inhomogeneous deformation.In the transition portion,the effects of the neighbouring grains were adopted in the model.The grains in the internal portion were considered the polycrystalline material.With the developed model,the upsetting deformation process was simulated by the MSC Superform software.The scatter of the flow stress and inhomogeneous deformation was observed by analysis of the model.The comparisons show that the computational results are good agreed with the experimental results.This means that the presented model is effective.

Constitutive model for thin sheet metal with one or several grains across thickness in micro-forming

Effects of four factors on thin sheet metal flow stress were considered, including grain size d, thickness t, grain number across thickness （t/d ratio） and surface property. Surface model was adopted to quantitatively describe the effect of t/d ratio on flow stress for pure copper. It is predicted that when t/d ratio is larger than a critical value, effect of t/d ratio on flow stress can be neglected. Existence of critical t/d ratio changes the Hall-Petch relationship and evolution of flow stress with thickness. A criterion was proposed to determine critical t/d ratio. Then a comprehensive constitutive model was developed to consider all the four factors, with parameters determined by fitting experimental data of high purity Ni. The predicted results show the same tendencies with experiment results. Particularly when t/d ratio decreases, Hall-Petch relationship and evolution of true stress show varied slopes with two transition points.

Constitutive modeling and springback simulation for 2524 aluminum alloy in creep age forming

The constitutive modeling and springback simulation for AA2524 sheet in creep age forming（CAF） process were presented.A series of creep aging tests were performed on AA2524 at the temperature of 180-200 °C and under the stress of 140-210 MPa for 16 h.Based on these experimental data,material constitutive equations which can well characterize creep aging behaviors of the tested alloy were developed.The effect of interior stress distributed along the sheet thickness on springback was simulated using FE software MSC.MARC by compiling the established constitutive models into the user subroutine.The simulation results showed that the amount of sheet springback was 61.12% when merely considering tensile stress existing along the sheet thickness;while sheet springback was up to 65.93% when taking both tensile and compressive stresses into account.In addition,an AA2524 rectangular sheet was subjected to CAF experiment in resistance furnace.The springback value of the formed rectangular sheet was 68.2%,which was much closer to 65.93%.This confirms that both tensile and compressive stresses across the sheet thickness should be considered in accurately predicting springback of the sheet after forming,which can be more consistent with experimental results.

A Review on Ultrasonic-Assisted Forming:Mechanism,Model,and Process

Compared with conventional forming processes,ultrasonic-assisted forming technology with a high frequency and small amplitude can significantly improve the forming quality of materials.Owing to the advantages of reduced forming force,improved surface quality,avoidance of forming defects,and strengthened surface structure,ultrasonic-assisted forming technology has been applied to increasingly advanced forming processes,such as incremental forming,spinning,and micro-forming.However,in the ultrasonic-assisted forming process,there are multiple ultrasonic mechanisms,such as the volume effect and surface effect.The explanation of the effect of ultrasonic vibration(UV)on plastic deformation remains controversial,hindering the development of related technologies.Recently,many researchers have proposed many new theories and technologies for ultrasonic-assisted forming.To summarize these developments,systematic discussions on mechanisms,theoretical models,and forming performances are provided in this review.On this basis,the limitations of the current study are discussed.In addition,an outlook for ultrasonic-assisted forming is proposed:efficient and stable UV systems,difficulty forming components with complex geometry,explanation of the in-depth mechanism,a systematic theoretical prediction model,and multi-field-coupling energy-assisted forming are considered to be hot spots in future studies.The present review enhances existing knowledge of ultrasonic-assisted forming,and facilitates a fast reference for related researchers.

Shape-predicted model of spray forming rod under scanning atomization

A model for simulating the spray forming process with scanning atomizer was developed.Models for the scanning atomization and the deposition processes were coupled together in order to obtain a new description of the spray forming process.The model,which is able to predict the shape of a spray-formed billet prepared with scanning atomizer,was established after analyzing the changes in droplet size and density distribution along the r-axis in the spray cone in scanning atomization.The effects of the two kinds of atomization were compared,showing that the scanning atomization is good for deposition.

Mathematical model of cylindrical form tolerance

Tolerance is essential for integration of CAD and CAM. Unfortunately, the meaning of tolerances in the national standard is expressed in graphical and language forms and is not adaptable for expression, processing and data transferring with computers. How to interpret its semantics is becoming a focus of relevant studies. This work based on the mathematical definition of form tolerance in ANSI Y 14.5.1 M-1994, established the mathematical model of form tolerance for cylindrical feature. First, each tolerance in the national standard was established by vector equation. Then on the foundation of toler-ance's mathematical definition theory, each tolerance zone's mathematical model was established by inequality based on degrees of feature. At last the variance area of each tolerance zone is derived. This model can interpret the semantics of form tolerance exactly and completely.

Comparative study on forming limit prediction of AA7075-T6 sheet with M−K model and Lou−Huh criterion

In order to effectively predict the fracture of AA7075-T6 sheet, the forming limit curves of AA7075-T6 high-strength sheet were drawn according to Morciniak Kuczyski (M K) model and Lou Huh criterion, respectively. The errors between the predicted values of the two theoretical prediction models and experimental values were calculated by error analysis. The forming limit curves were verified by the punch stretch test to evaluate the prediction accuracy of M K model and Lou Huh criterion. The error analysis results show that the mean error of Lou Huh criterion with the optimal parameters for all tensile specimens is 25.04%, while the mean error of M K model for all tensile specimens is 74.24%. The prediction accuracy of Lou Huh criterion in predicting the fracture of AA7075-T6 sheet is higher. The punch stretch test results show that the forming limit curve drawn by Lou Huh criterion can effectively predict the fracture of AA7075-T6 sheet, but the prediction accuracy of M K model is relatively poor.

PRICING CATASTROPHE OPTIONS WITH COUNTERPARTY CREDIT RISK IN A REDUCED FORM MODEL

In this paper, we study the price of catastrophe Options with counterparty credit risk in a reduced form model. We assume that the loss process is generated by a doubly stochastic Poisson process, the share price process is modeled through a jump-diffusion process which is correlated to the loss process, the interest rate process and the default intensity process are modeled through the Vasicek model： We derive the closed form formulae for pricing catastrophe options in a reduced form model. Furthermore, we make some numerical analysis on the explicit formulae.

Prediction of fracture limits of Ni-Cr based alloy under warm forming condition using ductile damage models and numerical method

The stretch forming and the deep-drawing processes were carried out at 300 and 673 K to determine the safe forming and fracture limits of IN625 alloy.The experimentally obtained strain-based fracture forming limit diagram(FFLD)was transformed into a stress-based(σ-FFLD)and effective plastic strain(EPS)vs triaxiality(η)plot to remove the excess dependency of fracture limits over the strains.For the prediction of fracture limits,seven different damage models were calibrated.The Oh model displayed the best ability to predict the fracture locus with the least absolute error.Though the experimentally obtained fracture limits have only been used for the numerical analysis,none of the considered damage models predicted the fracture strains over the entire considered range of stress triaxiality(0.33<η<0.66).The deep drawing process window helped to determine wrinkling,safe and fracture zones while drawing the cylindrical cups under different temperature and lubricating conditions.Further,the highest drawing ratio of 2 was achieved at 673 K under the lubricating condition.All the numerically predicted results of both stretch forming and deep drawing processes using the Hill 1948 anisotropic yielding function were found to be good within the acceptable range of error.

DEPENDENCE OF PREDICTION MODEL OF FORMING LIMIT STRAINS ON FORMING METHOD AND MECHANICAL PROPERTIES OF SHEET METALS

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Modeling and Simulation of the Microstructure Evolution of the Gas-atomized Alloy Droplets during Spray Forming

In order to understand the solidification process of an atomized droplet and predict the fraction solidification of droplets with flight distance during spray forming, a numerical model based on the population dynamics approach is developed to describe the microstructure evolution under the common action of the nucleation and growth of grains. The model is coupled with droplets heat transfer controlling equations and solved for AI-4.5 wt pct Cu alloy. It is demonstrated that the numerical results describe the solidification process well.

Effect of strain rate difference between inside and outside groove in M-K model on prediction of forming limit curve of Ti6Al4V at elevated temperatures

The influence of initial groove angle on strain rate inside and outside groove of Ti6Al4V alloy was investigated.Based on the evolution of strain rate inside and outside groove,the effect of strain rate difference on the evolution of normal stress and effective stress inside and outside groove was also analyzed.The results show that when linear loading path changes from uniaxial tension to equi-biaxial tension,the initial groove angle plays a weaker role in the evolution of strain rate in the M-K model.Due to the constraint of force equilibrium between inside and outside groove,the strain rate difference makes the normal stress inside groove firstly decrease and then increase during calculation,which makes the prediction algorithm of forming limit convergent at elevated temperature.The decrease of normal stress inside groove is mainly caused by high temperature softening effect and the rotation of groove,while the increase of normal stress inside groove is mainly due to strain rate hardening effect.

FEM simulation of flexible roll forming based on different material models

Flexible roll forming is a new roll forming process that produces parts with variable cross sections. This forming process is proposed to meet the demand of weight reduction of automobile industry. In order to study the mechanisms and material flow rules in this new forming process,the finite element mothod( FEM) model of a nine-step flexible roll forming of an ultra-high-strength steel bumper is established based on deep understanding and reasonable simplification of the process.Given that the material model is an important factor that influences the simulation accuracy,three material models which consist of different yield criteria and hardening models are adopted in the FEM models. Sheet thickness and springback amount calculated with three material models are studied comparatively. According to sheet thickness reduction and springback amounts,it is found that the MKi( Mises yield criterion and kinematic hardening law) model's result is larger than MI( Mises yield criterion and isotropic hardening law) model and HI( Hill's yield criterion and isotropic hardening law) model. Therefore,it is concluded that material models do have influences on the flexible roll forming simulation and need to be determined carefully.

Influence of material models on theoretical forming limit diagram prediction for Ti-6Al-4V alloy under warm condition

Forming limit diagram (FLD) is an important performance index to describe the maximum limit of principal strains that can be sustained by sheet metals till to the onset of localized necking. It offers a convenient and useful tool to predict the forming limit in the sheet metal forming processes. In the present study, FLD has been determined experimentally for Ti?6Al?4V alloy at 400 °C by conducting a Nakazima test with specimens of different widths. Additionally, for theoretical FLD prediction, various anisotropic yield criteria (Barlat 1989, Barlat 1996, Hill 1993) and different hardening models viz., Hollomon power law (HPL), Johnson?Cook (JC), modified Zerilli–Armstrong (m-ZA), modified Arrhenius (m-Arr) models have been developed. Theoretical FLDs have been determined using Marciniak and Kuczynski (M?K) theory incorporating the developed yield criteria and constitutive models. It has been observed that the effect of yield model is more pronounced than the effect of constitutive model for theoretical FLDs prediction. However, the value of thickness imperfection factor (f0) is solely dependent on hardening model. Hill (1993) yield criterion is best suited for FLD prediction in the right hand side region. Moreover, Barlat (1989) yield criterion is best suited for FLD prediction in left hand side region. Therefore, the proposed hybrid FLD in combination with Barlat (1989) and Hill (1993) yield models with m-Arr hardening model is in the best agreement with experimental FLD.

Solubility measurement and thermodynamic modeling of carbamazepine(form III)in five pure solvents at various temperatures

In this work,the solubilities of carbamazepine(CBZ)(form III)in ethyl acetate,methyl acetate,ethylene glycol,chloroform and cyclohexylamine were determined by laser monitoring techniques at pressure above sea level,and the solubility data of CBZ(form III)in different pure solvents were fitted by the Modified Apelblat model andλh model.The result shows that the solubility of CBZ(form III)in five solvents increases as temperature rises,and the solubility in chloroform was the largest.The experimental solubility values of CBZ(form III)in ethyl acetate,methyl acetate,chloroform and cyclohexylamine were in better agreement with the simulated fitting values of theλh model.For ethylene glycol,the r value was much larger than the other four solvents,and it can be seen from theλh model that ethylene glycol was closer to the ideal solution system than the other four solvents.

Model Analysis of Initial Hydration and Strueture Forming of Portland Cement

The auto efficiently hydration heat arrangement and the non-contacting electrical resistivity device were used to test the therrnology effect and the resistivity variation of Portland cement hydration. The structure forming model of Portland cement initial hydration was established through the systematical experiments with different cements, the amount of mixing water and the chemical admixture. The experimental results show that, the structure forming model of cement could be divided into three stages, i e, solution-solution equilibrium period, structure forming period and structure stabilizing period. Along with the increase of mixing water, the time of inflexion appeared is in advance for thermal process of cement hydration and worsened for the structure forming process. Comparison with the control specimen, adding Na2SO4 makes the minimum critical point lower, the flattening period shorter and the growing slope after stage one steeper. So the hydration and structure forming process of Portland cement could be described more exactly by applying the thermal model and the structure-forming model.