Albacore tuna(Thunnus alalunga)is one of the target species of tuna longline fishing,and waters near the Cook Islands are a vital albacore tuna fishing ground.Marine environmental data are usually presented with diffe...Albacore tuna(Thunnus alalunga)is one of the target species of tuna longline fishing,and waters near the Cook Islands are a vital albacore tuna fishing ground.Marine environmental data are usually presented with different spatial resolutions,which leads to different results in tuna fishery prediction.Study on the impact of different spatial resolutions on the prediction accuracy of albacore tuna fishery to select the best spatial resolution can contribute to better management of albacore tuna resources.The nominal catch per unit effort(CPUE)of albacore tuna is calculated according to vessel monitor system(VMS)data collected from Chinese distantwater fishery enterprises from January 1,2017 to May 31,2021.A total of 26 spatiotemporal and environmental factors,including temperature,salinity,dissolved oxygen of 0–300 m water layer,chlorophyll-a concentration in the sea surface,sea surface height,month,longitude,and latitude,were selected as variables.The temporal resolution of the variables was daily and the spatial resolutions were set to be 0.5°×0.5°,1°×1°,2°×2°,and 5°×5°.The relationship between the nominal CPUE and each individual factor was analyzed to remove the factors irrelavant to the nominal CPUE,together with a multicollinearity diagnosis on the factors to remove factors highly related to the other factors within the four spatial resolutions.The relationship models between CPUE and spatiotemporal and environmental factors by four spatial resolutions were established based on the long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network model.The mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE)were used to analyze the fitness and accuracy of the models,and to determine the effects of different spatial resolutions on the prediction accuracy of the albacore tuna fishing ground.The results show the resolution of 1°×1°can lead to the best prediction accuracy,with the MAE and RMSE being 0.0268 and 0.0452 respectively,followed by 0.5°×0.5°,2°×2°and 5°×5°with declining prediction accuracy.The results suggested that 1)albacore tuna fishing ground can be predicted by LSTM;2)the VMS records the data in detail and can be used scientifically to calculate the CPUE;3)correlation analysis,and multicollinearity diagnosis are necessary to improve the prediction accuracy of the model;4)the spatial resolution should be 1°×1°in the forecast of albacore tuna fishing ground in waters near the Cook Islands.展开更多
This study investigated the impacts of increasing model resolutions and shortening forecast lead times on the quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF)for heavy-rainfall events over south China during the rainy seasons...This study investigated the impacts of increasing model resolutions and shortening forecast lead times on the quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF)for heavy-rainfall events over south China during the rainy seasons in 2013-2020.The control experiment,where the analysis-forecast cycles run with model resolutions of about 3 km,was compared to a lower-resolution experiment with model resolutions of about 9 km,and a longer-term experiment activated 12 hours earlier.Rainfall forecasting in the presummer rainy season was significantly improved by improving model resolutions,with more improvements in cases with stronger synoptic-scale forcings.This is partially attributed to the improved initial conditions(ICs)and subsequent forecasts for low-level jets(LLJs).Forecasts of heavy rainfall induced by landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)benefited from increasing model resolutions in the first 6 hours.Forecast improvements in rainfall due to shortening forecast lead times were more significant at earlier(1-6 h)and later(7-12 h)lead times for cases with stronger and weaker synoptic-scale forcings,respectively,due to the area-and case-dependent improvements in ICs for nonprecipitation variables.Specifically,significant improvements mainly presented over the northern South China Sea for low-level onshore wind of weak-forcing cases but over south China for LLJs of strong-forcing cases during the presummer rainy season,and over south China for all the nonprecipitation variables above the surface during the TC season.However,some disadvantages of higher-resolution and shorter-term forecasts in QPFs highlight the importance of developing ensemble forecasting with proper IC perturbations,which include the complementary advantages of lower-resolution and longer-term forecasts.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.32273185)the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2020YFD0901205)the Marine Fishery Resources Investigation and Exploration Program of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China in 2021(No.D-8006-21-0215)。
文摘Albacore tuna(Thunnus alalunga)is one of the target species of tuna longline fishing,and waters near the Cook Islands are a vital albacore tuna fishing ground.Marine environmental data are usually presented with different spatial resolutions,which leads to different results in tuna fishery prediction.Study on the impact of different spatial resolutions on the prediction accuracy of albacore tuna fishery to select the best spatial resolution can contribute to better management of albacore tuna resources.The nominal catch per unit effort(CPUE)of albacore tuna is calculated according to vessel monitor system(VMS)data collected from Chinese distantwater fishery enterprises from January 1,2017 to May 31,2021.A total of 26 spatiotemporal and environmental factors,including temperature,salinity,dissolved oxygen of 0–300 m water layer,chlorophyll-a concentration in the sea surface,sea surface height,month,longitude,and latitude,were selected as variables.The temporal resolution of the variables was daily and the spatial resolutions were set to be 0.5°×0.5°,1°×1°,2°×2°,and 5°×5°.The relationship between the nominal CPUE and each individual factor was analyzed to remove the factors irrelavant to the nominal CPUE,together with a multicollinearity diagnosis on the factors to remove factors highly related to the other factors within the four spatial resolutions.The relationship models between CPUE and spatiotemporal and environmental factors by four spatial resolutions were established based on the long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network model.The mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE)were used to analyze the fitness and accuracy of the models,and to determine the effects of different spatial resolutions on the prediction accuracy of the albacore tuna fishing ground.The results show the resolution of 1°×1°can lead to the best prediction accuracy,with the MAE and RMSE being 0.0268 and 0.0452 respectively,followed by 0.5°×0.5°,2°×2°and 5°×5°with declining prediction accuracy.The results suggested that 1)albacore tuna fishing ground can be predicted by LSTM;2)the VMS records the data in detail and can be used scientifically to calculate the CPUE;3)correlation analysis,and multicollinearity diagnosis are necessary to improve the prediction accuracy of the model;4)the spatial resolution should be 1°×1°in the forecast of albacore tuna fishing ground in waters near the Cook Islands.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1501603)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975136,42075014)+2 种基金Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST(2023r121)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2019A1515011118)Guangzhou Municipal Science and Technology Planning Project of China(202103000030)。
文摘This study investigated the impacts of increasing model resolutions and shortening forecast lead times on the quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF)for heavy-rainfall events over south China during the rainy seasons in 2013-2020.The control experiment,where the analysis-forecast cycles run with model resolutions of about 3 km,was compared to a lower-resolution experiment with model resolutions of about 9 km,and a longer-term experiment activated 12 hours earlier.Rainfall forecasting in the presummer rainy season was significantly improved by improving model resolutions,with more improvements in cases with stronger synoptic-scale forcings.This is partially attributed to the improved initial conditions(ICs)and subsequent forecasts for low-level jets(LLJs).Forecasts of heavy rainfall induced by landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)benefited from increasing model resolutions in the first 6 hours.Forecast improvements in rainfall due to shortening forecast lead times were more significant at earlier(1-6 h)and later(7-12 h)lead times for cases with stronger and weaker synoptic-scale forcings,respectively,due to the area-and case-dependent improvements in ICs for nonprecipitation variables.Specifically,significant improvements mainly presented over the northern South China Sea for low-level onshore wind of weak-forcing cases but over south China for LLJs of strong-forcing cases during the presummer rainy season,and over south China for all the nonprecipitation variables above the surface during the TC season.However,some disadvantages of higher-resolution and shorter-term forecasts in QPFs highlight the importance of developing ensemble forecasting with proper IC perturbations,which include the complementary advantages of lower-resolution and longer-term forecasts.
