A Scenario-Based Evaluation of COVID-19-Related Essential Clinical Resource Demands in China

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic is a global crisis,and medical systems in many countries are overwhelmed with supply shortages and increasing demands to treat patients due to the surge in cases and severe illnesses.This study aimed to assess COVID-19-related essential clinical resource demands in China,based on different scenarios involving COVID-19 spreads and interventions.We used a susceptible–exposed–infectious–hospitalized/isolated–removed(SEIHR)transmission dynamics model to estimate the number of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations with corresponding essential healthcare resources needed.We found that,under strict non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)or mass vaccination of the population,China would be able to contain community transmission and local outbreaks rapidly.However,under scenarios involving a low intensity of implemented NPIs and a small proportion of the population vaccinated,the use of a peacetime–wartime transition model would be needed for medical source stockpiles and preparations to ensure a normal functioning healthcare system.The implementation of COVID-19 vaccines and NPIs in different periods can influence the transmission of COVID-19 and subsequently affect the demand for clinical diagnosis and treatment.An increased proportion of asymptomatic infections in simulations will not reduce the demand for medical resources;however,attention must be paid to the increasing difficulty in containing COVID-19 transmission due to asymptomatic cases.This study provides evidence for emergency preparations and the adjustment of prevention and control strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic.It also provides guidance for essential healthcare investment and resource allocation.

Analysis of Water Resources Supply and Demand and Security of Water Resources Development in Irrigation Regions of the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

Based on the data for meteorology, hydrology, soil, planting, vegetation, and socio-economic development of the irrigation region in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China, the model of balance of water supply and demand in the region was established, and the security of water resource was assessed, from which the results that the effects of unified management of water resources in the Heihe River basin between Gansu Province and Inner Mongolia on regional hydrology are significant with a decrease in water supply diverted from Heihe River and an increase in groundwater extracted. In addition, it was found that the groundwater level has been steadily decreasing due to over pumping and decrease in recharges. In present year （2003）, the volume of potential groundwater in the irrigation districts is far small because of the groundwater overdraft; even in the particular regions, there is no availability of groundwater resources for use. By 2003, water supply is not sufficient to meet the water demand in the different irrigation districts, the sustainable development and utilization of water resources are not secured, and the water supply crisis occurs in Pingchuan irrigation district. Achieving water security for the sustainable development of society, agriculture, economy, industry, and livelihoods while maintaining or improving the abilities of the management and planning of water resources, determining of the reasonable percentage between water supply and groundwater utilization and water saving in agricultural irrigation are taken into account. If this does not occur, it is feared that the present performance of water development and planning may further aggravate the problem of scarcities of water resources and further damage the fragile ecological system.

Optimal flexibility dispatch of demand side resources with high penetration of renewables:a Stackelberg game method

To promote the utilization of renewable energy,such as photovoltaics,this paper proposes an optimal flexibility dispatch method for demand-side resources(DSR)based on the Stackelberg game theory.First,the concept of the generalized DSR is analyzed and flexibility models for various DSR are constructed.Second,owing to the characteristics of small capacity but large-scale,an outer approximation is proposed to describe the aggregate flexibility of DSR.Then,the optimal flexibility dispatch model of DSR based on the Stackelberg game is established and a decentralized solution algorithm is designed to obtain the Stackelberg equilibrium.Finally,the actual data are utilized for the case study and the results show that,compared to the traditional centralized optimization method,the proposed optimal flexibility dispatch method can not only reduce the net load variability of the DSR aggregator but is beneficial for all DSR owners,which is more suitable for practical applications.

Prospect of Lithium Resources Supply and Demand

1 Introduction The conflict between resources and the environment has been increasingly outstanding as the population,economy and society around the globe have developed rapidly since the 21st century.An important challenge that the human

Status and Perspective of Demand Resource Market in Korea＇s Electric Power Industry

This paper calls attention to the demand resource market in Korea which opened in 2008 to reduce customers＇ consumption at critical times and, at the same time, secure the load that can be shut down. In Korea, the demand resource market is operated by either forward market or spot market. The discussion here is limited to the operations of the demand resource spot market. As the demand response program has matured in the smart grid environment, KPX （Korea Power Exchange） will shortly complete the development of the real-time demand resource trading system, taking into account an integrated dispatch system.

System Dynamics Approach to Urban Water Demand Forecasting—A Case Study of Tianjin

A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system, which was characterized by multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions among sys-tem elements. As an example, Tianjin water resources system dynamic model was set up to forecast water resources demand of the planning years. The practical verification showed that the relative error was lower than 10%. Fur-thermore, through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results under different development modes pre-sented in this paper, the forecasting results of the water resources demand of Tianjin was achieved based on sustain-able utilization strategy of water resources.

System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.

Study on Supply Drive and Demand Drive of the Telecommunication Operation

This paper analyzes the total movement period of the development of the world telecommunication industry, and points out the basic principles of the supply and demand regulation and the market drive are important and useful to the telecommunication industry. The thesis puts forward the pertinent evaluation and the positive suggestions according to the general characteristics and individual characteristics of Chinese telecommunication industry and emphasizes the meaning of the demand drive.

IRP/DSM and Sustainable Development

This paper introduces the energy consumption status in China, elaborate the affects of the unreasonable energy consumption structure on energy environment and sustainable development of economy. Simultaneously, it points out the solution, i.e., to implement integrated resources planning (IRP)/demand side management (DSM), and gives some recommendations on the way of implementing IRP/DSM.

Optimization research on supply and demand system for water resources in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration

Using system analysis theory and methods, a dynamic model of a water resource supply and demand system was built to simulate trends in the supply and demand of water in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan （Chang-Zhu-Tan） urban agglomeration for the period 2012 to 2030. Four scenarios were examined; namely, a traditional development model, an economic development model, a water-saving model, and a coordinated development model. （i） The problem of balancing water resource supply and demand is becoming increasingly conspicuous with a growing population and a rapidly developing economy. （ii） By 2030, water demand is set to reach a total of 105.1 × 10^8 m^3, with a water supply of 5.4 × 10^8 m^3. A coordinated development model for water resource supply could meet the growing demands of socio-economic development, and generate huge comprehensive benefits. This will be the best solution for the development and utilization of a water resource supply and demand system in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. （iii） We should accelerate the construction of water conservation projects, strengthen the management of water conservation, optimize economic structures, enhance our awareness of the importance of protecting water resources, hasten the recycling of waste water and environmental improvement, and promote utilization efficiency, and support the capabilities of water resources to meet our expectations.

Bi-level Coordinated Planning of Active Distribution Network Considering Demand Response Resources and Severely Restricted Scenarios

Due to the uncertainty and fluctuation of distributed generation(DG)and load,the operation of active distribution network(ADN)is affected by multi-dimension factors which are described by massive operation scenarios.Efficient and accurate screening of severely restricted scenarios(SRSs)has become a new challenge in ADN planning.In this paper,a novel bi-level coordinated planning model which combines the short-time-scale operation problem with the long-time-scale planning problem is proposed.At the upper level,the demand response(DR)resource,an effective non-component planning resource characterized by low capacity price,high energy price,and short contract term,is co-optimized with the configuration of lines and energy storage systems(ESSs)to achieve the economic trade-off between the investment cost and the operation cost under SRSs.At the lower level,with the planning scheme obtained from the upper level,massive operation problems are optimized to minimize the daily operation cost;and the SRSs are provided to the upper level through a shadow-price-based scenario screening method,which simulates the planning information(i.e.,the restricted degrees of operation scenarios)feedback process from ADN operators to ADN planners.Case studies on a 62-node distribution system in Jianshan New District,Zhejiang Province,China,illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed bi-level coordinated planning model considering DR resources and SRSs.

Modeling demand/supply of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China during the late 1980s to 2010

Water demand increases continuously with an increasing population and economic development. As a result, the difference between water supply and demand becomes a sig- nificant issue, especially in arid regions. To figure out the utilization of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China （ARNWC）, and also to provide methodologies to predict the water use in future, three models were established in this study to calculate agricultural irri- gation, industrial and domestic water use in the ARNWC from the late 1980s to 2010. Based on river discharges in the region, the supply and demand of water resources at the river basin level were analyzed. The results indicated that agricultural irrigation demand occupies more than 90% of the total water use in the ARNWC. Total water demand increased from 31.97 km3 in the late 1980s to 48.19 km3 in 2010. Most river basins in this arid region were under me- dium and high water stress. Severe-risk river basins, such as the Shiyang river basin and the eastern part of the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, were found in this region. It was revealed that the water supply became critical from April to May, which was the season of the lowest water supply as determined by comparing monthly water consumption.