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Carrying Capacity and Coupling Coordination of Water and Land Resources Systems in Arid and Semi-arid Areas: A Case Study of Yulin City, China
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作者 ZHANG Qianxi CAO Zhi +1 位作者 WANG Yongsheng HUANG Yijia 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第5期931-950,共20页
Quantitatively assessing the carrying capacity of water and land resources systems in arid and semi-arid areas is crucial for achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.In this work,taking Yulin City in China as... Quantitatively assessing the carrying capacity of water and land resources systems in arid and semi-arid areas is crucial for achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.In this work,taking Yulin City in China as a case study and employing the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method,a modified model of coupling degree was developed to evaluate the car-rying capacity of water and land resources systems endowment and utilization,as well as their coupling coordination degree from 2013 to 2020.Our findings indicate that the water and land resources of Yulin are diminishing due to declines in agriculture,higher industrial water use,and wetland shrinkage.However,reallocating domestic water for ecological sustainability and reducing sloping farmland can mitigate this trend of decline.Temporally,as the coupling coordination between water and land resources system endowment in Yulin continuously improved,the coupling coordination between water and land resources system utilization first decreased and then in-creased with 2016 as the turning point.Spatially,the carrying capacity of water and land resources systems,the coupling coordination degree between water and land resources system endowment,and the coupling coordination degree between water and land resources system utilization in Yulin exhibited the same pattern of being higher in the six northern counties than in the six southern counties.Improving the water resources endowment is vital for the highly efficient use of water and land resources. 展开更多
关键词 water and land resources systems carrying capacity coupling coordination human-earth system sustainable development Yulin City China
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Influence of Anthropogenic Activities on Surface Water Resources—Case of the Sub-Prefecture of Kamsar-Boké
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作者 Konate Daouda Kone Tidiani +1 位作者 Kamano Saa Moussa Diallo Mamadou Oury 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2024年第8期168-179,共12页
Living fishery resources, although rich and important for human populations, are subject to strong anthropization, thus causing a change in the environmental parameters of aquatic ecosystems. These multiple combined p... Living fishery resources, although rich and important for human populations, are subject to strong anthropization, thus causing a change in the environmental parameters of aquatic ecosystems. These multiple combined pressures: chemical, hydro-morphological, thermal or trophic, affect and disrupt the functioning of aquatic organisms. The objective of this study was to assess the main human pressures influencing the surface water resources of the Kamsar sub-prefecture, in order to propose mitigation measures. The following methodological approach was adopted: 1) Survey of managers and analysis records;2) Survey of stakeholders;3) Assessment of the effect of human activities on surface water resources;4) Data processing;5) Corrective measures. The survey farmers working near aquatic environments, revealed a low use of chemical substances, in particular 3 to 11 kg of fertilizer and 0 to 3 boxes of herbicide on fields of 40 m2 to 2 ha. Some physico-chemical parameters have been determined: Temperature (28.5˚C, 23.7˚C, 22.8˚C, 21.3˚C, 21.6˚C), Salinity (26.9‰, 21.9‰, 21.5‰, 15‰, 15.3‰) and Turbidity (21.3 UTN, 19.3 UTN, 17.8 UTN, 16.7 UTN, 17 UTN). These values show a fluctuation in the environmental parameters of aquatic ecosystems, which constitutes an obstacle to the development and survival of the resources. 展开更多
关键词 INFLUENCE Anthropogenic Activities water resources
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Assessing Water Resources Access of Nouhao Sub-Basin, Burkina Faso
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作者 Wendkuni Ghislain Noba Lucien Damiba +2 位作者 Ali Doumounia Inoussa Zongo François Zougmore 《Journal of Water Resource and Protection》 CAS 2023年第4期149-164,共16页
Water resource access in the Nouhao sub-basin, assessed based on the availability of drinking water mobilization facilities, the availability of water for uses and the quality of drinking water, revealed that in 2017 ... Water resource access in the Nouhao sub-basin, assessed based on the availability of drinking water mobilization facilities, the availability of water for uses and the quality of drinking water, revealed that in 2017 the basin was covered by 1249 modern water point, main drinking water sources. On average, the sub-basin shows a ratio of 271 users per drinking water point. Communal level shows some disparity with Bittou recording the highest number of people per drinking water point, i.e., around 537. Water that can be captured in the entire sub-basin meets only 42% of the total water needs from the three mains uses: irrigation, domestic consumption and livestock. The highest demander among these uses is Irrigation with 75% of the need, i.e., approximately 12,859,995 m<sup>3</sup>. Water in 33% drinking sources of this sub basin is of poor quality. Arsenic, one of the quality parameters studied, is found in some communes of the sub-basin. 11% of the water points in Bissiga are arsenic polluted making this commune the most arsenic contaminated location. The vulnerability maps deducted from lack of water for uses;lack of drinking water works and poor water quality shows so, the exposure level of the sub-basin’ communes to some potential risks related to low water resources access. 展开更多
关键词 water resources Nouhao Sub-Basin Access to water Modern water Points VULNERABILITY
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Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model
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作者 Shuanbao LIN 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2023年第4期42-45,49,共5页
As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,the development and utilization of water resources is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.How to scientifically ev... As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,the development and utilization of water resources is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.How to scientifically evaluate the water resources carrying capacity is the premise to improve the regional water resources carrying capacity and ensure the regional water security.The Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is an important water conservation and recharge area.Whether the water resources in this area can ensure the normal operation of the ecosystem and whether it can carry the sustainable development of social economy is the key to realize the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.In this study,from the three dimensions of water consumption per capita,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and ecological water use rate,by constructing the evaluation index system and index grading standard of water resources carrying capacity,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,in order to provide theoretical decision-making basis for the comprehensive development,utilization and planning management of water resources in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin and even the whole basin,and help the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin. 展开更多
关键词 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model water resources carrying capacity EVALUATION Yellow River basin Gansu section
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Artificial Intelligence Technique in Hydrological Forecasts Supporting for Water Resources Management of a Large River Basin in Vietnam
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作者 Truong Van Anh 《Open Journal of Modern Hydrology》 2023年第4期246-258,共13页
Hydrological forecasting plays an important role in water resource management, supporting socio-economic development and managing water-related risks in river basins. There are many flow forecasting techniques that ha... Hydrological forecasting plays an important role in water resource management, supporting socio-economic development and managing water-related risks in river basins. There are many flow forecasting techniques that have been developed several centuries ago, ranging from physical models, physics-based models, conceptual models, and data-driven models. Recently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become an advanced technique applied as an effective data-driven model in hydrological forecasting. The main advantage of these models is that they give results with compatible accuracy, and require short computation time, thus increasing forecasting time and reducing human and financial effort. This study evaluates the applicability of machine learning and deep learning in Hanoi water level forecasting where it is controlled for flood management and water supply in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Accordingly, SANN (machine learning algorithm) and LSTM (deep learning algorithm) were tested and compared with a Physics-Based Model (PBM) for the Red River Delta. The results show that SANN and LSTM give high accuracy. The R-squared coefficient is greater than 0.8, the mean squared error (MSE) is less than 20 cm, the correlation coefficient of the forecast hydrology is greater than 0.9 and the level of assurance of the forecast plan ranges from 80% to 90% in both cases. In addition, the calculation time is much reduced compared to the requirement of PBM, which is its limitation in hydrological forecasting for large river basins such as the Red River in Vietnam. Therefore, SANN and LSTM are expected to help increase lead time, thereby supporting water resource management for sustainable development and management of water-related risks in the Red River Delta. 展开更多
关键词 Hydrological Forecast water resources Management Machine Learning Deep Learning Red River Basin
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Analysis of the Status and Rational Allocation of Water Resources in China in View of the New Era
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作者 Yizhe Li 《Journal of World Architecture》 2023年第6期89-94,共6页
This paper examines the current status of water resource management and conservation in China,along with strategies to address the water resource crisis.Given the current situation,the paper highlights issues such as ... This paper examines the current status of water resource management and conservation in China,along with strategies to address the water resource crisis.Given the current situation,the paper highlights issues such as incomplete legal mechanisms,limited environmental awareness among enterprises,and insufficient government investment.To ad-dress these challenges,the paper proposes a series of strategies,including improving the ecological environment,enhanc-ing production techniques,strengthening management systems,rationalizing water resource allocation,and implementing water-saving measures in both industrial and agricultural production.These strategies serve to achieve sustainable water resource management,reduce water pollution,and effectively tackle the pressing water resource issues faced in China currently. 展开更多
关键词 water resources Ecological environment water security protection and utilization
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The Relationship between Water Resources Use Efficiency and Scientific and Technological Innovation Level: Case Study of Yangtze River Basin in China
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作者 Guangming Yang Qingqing Gui +2 位作者 Junyue Liu Fengtai Zhang Siyi Cheng 《Journal of Environmental & Earth Sciences》 2023年第2期15-35,共21页
The Yangtze River Basin’s water resource utilization efficiency(WUE)and scientific and technological innovation level(STI)are closely connected,and the comprehension of these relationships will help to improve WUE an... The Yangtze River Basin’s water resource utilization efficiency(WUE)and scientific and technological innovation level(STI)are closely connected,and the comprehension of these relationships will help to improve WUE and promote local economic growth and conservation of water.This study uses 19 provinces and regions along the Yangtze River’s mainstream from 2009 to 2019 as its research objects and uses a Vector Auto Regression(VAR)model to quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of the coupling coordination degree(CCD)between the two subsystems of WUE and STI.The findings show that:(1)Both the WUE and STI in the Yangtze River Basin showed an upward trend during the study period,but the STI effectively lagged behind the WUE;(2)The CCD of the two subsystems generally showed an upward trend,and the CCD of each province was improved to varying degrees,but the majority of regions did not develop a high-quality coordination stage;(3)The CCD of the two systems displayed apparent positive spatial autocorrelation in the spatial correlation pattern,and there were only two types:high-high(H-H)urbanization areas and low-low(L-L)urbanization areas;(4)The STI showed no obvious response to the impact of the WUE,while the WUE responded greatly to the STI,and both of them were highly dependent on themselves.Optimizing their interaction mechanisms should be the primary focus of high-quality development in the basin of the Yangtze River in the future.These results give the government an empirical basis to enhance the WUE and promote regional sustainable development. 展开更多
关键词 water resource utilization efficiency(WUE) Scientific and technological innovation level(STI) Coupling coordination Interactive response Yangtze River Basin
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Optimization of water-urban-agricultural-ecological land use pattern:A case study of Guanzhong Basin in the southern Loess Plateau of Shaanxi Province,China
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作者 Sai Wang Bin Wu +6 位作者 Hai-xue Li Min-min Zhao Lei Yuan Xi Wu Tao Ma Fu-cheng Li Shuang-bao Han 《China Geology》 CAS CSCD 2024年第3期480-493,共14页
Extensive land use will cause many environmental problems.It is an urgent task to improve land use efficiency and optimize land use patterns.In recent years,due to the flow decrease,the Guanzhong Basin in Shaanxi Prov... Extensive land use will cause many environmental problems.It is an urgent task to improve land use efficiency and optimize land use patterns.In recent years,due to the flow decrease,the Guanzhong Basin in Shaanxi Province is confronted with the problem of insufficient water resources reserve.Based on the Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model(GSFLOW),this paper evaluates the response of water resources in the basin to changes in land use patterns,optimizes the land use pattern,improves the ecological and economic benefits,and the efficiency of various spatial development,providing a reference for ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.The research shows that the land use pattern in the Guanzhong Basin should be further optimized.Under the condition of considering ecological and economic development,the percentage change of the optimum area of farmland,forest,grassland,water area,and urban area compared with the current land use area ratio is+2.3,+2.4,-6.1,+0.2,and+1.6,respectively.The economic and ecological value of land increases by14.1%and 3.1%,respectively,and the number of water resources can increase by 2.5%. 展开更多
关键词 Coupled Ground-water and Surface-water Flow Model(GSFLOW) Land use patterns water resources optimization Ecological and economic benefits Coupling model Hydrological environmental engineering Guanzhong Basin Southern Loess Plateau Yellow River basin
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A multi-objective fuzzy optimization model for cropping structure and water resources and its method 被引量:3
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作者 马建琴 陈守煜 邱林 《Hunan Agricultural Science & Technology Newsletter》 2004年第1期5-10,共6页
Cropping structure has a close relationship with the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources. Based on the analysis of the relationship between agricultural water resources and sustainable development, this... Cropping structure has a close relationship with the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources. Based on the analysis of the relationship between agricultural water resources and sustainable development, this paper presents a multi objective fuzzy optimization model for cropping structure and water allocation, which overcomes the shortcoming of current models that only considered the economic objective,and ignored the social and environmental objectives. During the process, a new method named fuzzy deciding weight is developed to decide the objective weight. A case study shows that the model is reliable, the method is simple and objective, and the results are reasonable. This model is useful for agricultural management and sustainable development. 展开更多
关键词 cropping structure multi objective fuzzy optimization fuzzy deciding weight agricultural water resources
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Assessment on the Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Karst Area Based on the Cosine Vector Included Angle 被引量:5
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作者 袁子勇 焦树林 +1 位作者 杨萍 金开梅 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第12期1-2,13,共3页
[Objective] The research aimed to assess the water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province based on the cosine vector included angle method. [Method] By using the cosine vector included angle method, the index... [Objective] The research aimed to assess the water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province based on the cosine vector included angle method. [Method] By using the cosine vector included angle method, the index weight was determined. The projection value of water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province was counted by using the multi-objective gray relational projection method. Moreover, the projection value which was counted by the index weight determined by the mean-variance method was as the control. [Result] The projection values which were obtained by two kinds of methods were very close, and the ordering result was consistent. [Conclusion] In the assessment of water resources carrying capacity, it was feasible to use the cosine vector included angle method to determine the index weight. 展开更多
关键词 Cosine vector included angle Index weight Gray relational projection water resources carrying capacity China
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Analysis on the Contribution of Artificial Precipitation Enhancement Amount to Annual Water Resources in Liaoning
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作者 班显秀 王吉宏 +1 位作者 胡伟 李帅彬 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第10期69-70,100,共3页
Based on the water resource balance,the correlation between both the Liaoning water resource and precipitation and total amount of water resource from 1991 to 2004 was analyzed by assuming Liaoning to be an enclosed r... Based on the water resource balance,the correlation between both the Liaoning water resource and precipitation and total amount of water resource from 1991 to 2004 was analyzed by assuming Liaoning to be an enclosed region.And the calculation methods were developed to quantitatively determine the increase of rainfall due to artificial precipitation,and consequently ascertain the contribution of artificial rainfall amount to water resources. 展开更多
关键词 Precipitation Artificial precipitation enhancement Assessment Amount of water resource China
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Evaluation Model of Carrying Capacity of Water Resources Based on Standardized Indices of Radial Basis Function
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作者 臧蕾 李祚泳 刘伟 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2012年第6期1365-1367,共3页
[Objective] The aim was to study on RBF model about evaluation on carrying capacity of water resources based on standardized indices. [Method] The indices were transformed and the averages of standard values in differ... [Objective] The aim was to study on RBF model about evaluation on carrying capacity of water resources based on standardized indices. [Method] The indices were transformed and the averages of standard values in different levels were taken as the standardized values of components of central vectors for basic functions of RBF hidden nodes. Hence, the basic functions are suitable for most indices, simplifying expression and calculation of basic functions. [Result] RBF models concluded through Monkey-king Genetic Algorithm with weights optimization are used in evaluation on water carrying capacity in three districts in Changwu County in Shaanxi Province, which were in consistent with that through fuzzy evaluation. [Conclusion] RBF, simple and practical, is universal and popular. 展开更多
关键词 Indices standardization RBF water resource Carrying capacity Evaluation model
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Evaluation of Environmental Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Jiangxi Province
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作者 叶志平 孟丽红 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2015年第12期2849-2853,共5页
In order to quantitatively evaluate the sustainable development status of water resources in Jiangxi Province, the dynamic changes in ecological footprint, carrying capacity and load index of water resources in Jiangx... In order to quantitatively evaluate the sustainable development status of water resources in Jiangxi Province, the dynamic changes in ecological footprint, carrying capacity and load index of water resources in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2013 were analyzed according to the primary principle and calculation model of ecological footprint. The results showed that in Jiangxi Province during 2009- 2013, the water resources ecological footprint per capita was relatively low; the wa- ter resources utilization level was relatively low; the overall development potential of water resources was great; the water resources ecological carrying capacity per capita and ecological footprint per capita were trended to be increased overall. The changes in water resources ecological footprint are closely related to the social and economic development. Therefore, the industrial structure should be fully adjusted, and the water resources should be scheduled and utilized reasonably so as to pro- mote the protection of water resources and sustainable development of society and economic in Jiangxi Province. 展开更多
关键词 Ecological footprint water resource load index Ecological carrying ca- pacity
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Conception of Allocating Farming Water Resource with Option System
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作者 Jilian Hu Yanxiang Ge Xiaoli Ma 《Chinese Business Review》 2006年第1期44-46,共3页
The uncertainty of natural fall results in the uncertainty of water resource, which brings difficulty in allocating farming water resource characterized by "more use when it is lack but less when enough". By analyzi... The uncertainty of natural fall results in the uncertainty of water resource, which brings difficulty in allocating farming water resource characterized by "more use when it is lack but less when enough". By analyzing the endurance of farming households of water price and the shortcoming of transaction system of farming water fight, options of farming water are deviated from water fight market, which allows farming households to evade the natural and market risks by means of purchasing call or put option contracts in order to raise the utilization ratio of water and to realize the allocation optimum. 展开更多
关键词 options farming water resource water fight contract
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Ecological Significance of Developing Cloud Water Resource in Liaoning Province 被引量:1
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作者 王华 班显秀 +1 位作者 张玉书 张淑杰 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第8期80-83,共4页
The potential evapotranspiration of main ecosystems and its relationship with precipitation during the same period were studied,the results showed that precipitation did not meet the water requirement of main ecosyste... The potential evapotranspiration of main ecosystems and its relationship with precipitation during the same period were studied,the results showed that precipitation did not meet the water requirement of main ecosystems influencing ecosystem construction.Based on the data from Liaoning Provincial Department of Water Resources and Liaoning Meteorological Archives,the characteristics of water inflow and each component were analyzed,and it showed that the imbalance between supply and demand of water resource in main ecosystems was improved by means of developing cloud water resource to increase atmospheric precipitation. 展开更多
关键词 ECOSYSTEM Potential evapotranspiration Artificial precipitation enhancement Cloud water resource China
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Study on the Multi-dimension Evaluation Index System of Agricultural Water Resources in Liaoning Province 被引量:2
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作者 陈金良 石丽忠 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2013年第5期780-782,共3页
[Objective] This study aimed to establish the multi-dimensional evaluation index system of agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province. [Method] Delphi method in conjunction with AHP method was adopted to establ... [Objective] This study aimed to establish the multi-dimensional evaluation index system of agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province. [Method] Delphi method in conjunction with AHP method was adopted to establish the multi-dimensional evaluation index system of agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province, and all the indexes in each hierarchy were ranked overall according to their weights. [Result] There were three hierarchies in this index system, totally including 21 indexes, among which water resource exploitation and utilization rate, sewage treatment rate and utilization of available water resources were the three crucial factors influencing the sustainable development. [Conclusion] This evaluation index system can reflect the true sustainable situation of the agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province. 展开更多
关键词 Delphi method Analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method Agricultural water resources Index system
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Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China 被引量:56
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作者 MENG Lihong CHEN Yaning +1 位作者 LI Weihong ZHAO Ruifeng 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2009年第1期89-95,共7页
This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature,society,e... This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature,society,economics and water resources of the Tarim River Basin in 2002,we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the basin by means of the model. The results show that the comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 for Aksu and Kashi prefectures respectively,where the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity,0.620 for Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture,where water resources carrying capacity is much higher,and in between for Hotan Prefecture and Bayingolin Mongo-lian Autonomous Prefecture. As a whole,the comprehensive grade of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508 and the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. Thus,we suggest that the integrated management of the water resources in the basin should be strengthened in order to utilize water resources scientifically and sustainably. 展开更多
关键词 water resources capacity fuzzy comprehensive evaluation membership degree Tarim River Basin XINJIANG
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Hydrology and water resources variation and its response to regional climate change in Xinjiang 被引量:18
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作者 XU Changchun CHEN Yaning +2 位作者 YANG Yuhui HAO Xingming SHEN Yongping 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2010年第4期599-612,共14页
Based on the surface runoff, temperature and precipitation data over the last 50 years from eight representative rivers in Xinjiang, using Mann-Kendall trend and jump detection method, the paper investigated the long-... Based on the surface runoff, temperature and precipitation data over the last 50 years from eight representative rivers in Xinjiang, using Mann-Kendall trend and jump detection method, the paper investigated the long-term trend and jump point of time series, the surface runoff, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Meanwhile, the paper analyzed the relationship between runoff and temperature and precipitation, and the flood frequency and peak flow. Results showed that climate of all parts of Xinjiang conformably has experienced an increase in temperature and precipitation since the mid-1980s. Northern Xinjiang was the area that changed most significantly followed by southern and eastern Xinjiang. Affected by temperature and precipitation variation, river runoff had changed both inter-annually and intra-annually. The surface runoff of most rivers has increased significantly since the early 1990s, and some of them have even witnessed the earlier spring floods, later summer floods and increasing flood peaks. The variation characteristics were closely related with the replenishment types of rivers. Flood frequency and peak flow increased all over Xinjiang. Climate warming has had an effect on the regional hydrological cycle. 展开更多
关键词 hydrology and water resources climate change XINJIANG
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A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin 被引量:14
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作者 ShanShan DAI LanHai LI +2 位作者 HongGang XU XiangLiang PAN XueMei LI 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2013年第1期118-131,共14页
The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to m... The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors: 1 ) natural surface and groundwater resources; 2) water demand; 3) the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4) water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin. 展开更多
关键词 water resources management sustainable development system dynamics modeling water stress arid river basin
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Climate Change and Its Impact on Water Resources in North China 被引量:8
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作者 高歌 黄朝迎 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2001年第5期718-732,共15页
In the context of climate, water resources and areas of farmland suffered from drought and flood data, features and changes of climate and water resources as well as correlation between them are analyzed for the past ... In the context of climate, water resources and areas of farmland suffered from drought and flood data, features and changes of climate and water resources as well as correlation between them are analyzed for the past 50 years in North China. Assessment models of water resources are developed. Impacts of extreme climate events on water resources and impacts of drought and flood on agriculture are further studied. In the end, possible impacts of climate change in coming years are discussed on the basis of climate model simulation. Countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for realizing water resources sustainable utilization. 展开更多
关键词 climate change IMPACT water resources North China
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