In offshore engineering design, it is considerably significant to have an adequately accurate estimation of marine environmental parameters, in particular, the extreme wind speed of tropical cyclone （TC） with differ...In offshore engineering design, it is considerably significant to have an adequately accurate estimation of marine environmental parameters, in particular, the extreme wind speed of tropical cyclone （TC） with different return periods to guarantee the safety in projected operating life period. Based on the 71-year （1945-2015） TC data in the Northwest Pacific （NWP） by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） of US, a notable growth of the TC intensity is observed in the context of climate change. The fact implies that the traditional stationary model might be incapable of predicting parameters in the extreme events. Therefore, a non-stationary model is proposed in this study to estimate extreme wind speed in the South China Sea （SCS） and NWP. We find that the extreme wind speeds of different return periods exhibit an evident enhancement trend, for instance, the extreme wind speeds with different return periods by non- stationary model are 4.1%-4.4% higher than stationary ones in SCS. Also, the spatial distribution of extreme wind speed in NWP has been examined with the same methodology by dividing the west sea areas of the NWP 0°-45°N, 105°E-130°E into 45 subareas of 5° × 5°, where oil and gas resources are abundant. Similarly, remarkable spacial in-homogeneity in the extreme wind speed is seen in this area： the extreme wind speed with 50-year return period in the subarea （15°N-20°N, 115°E-120°E） of Zhongsha and Dongsha Islands is 73.8 m/s, while that in the subarea of Yellow Sea （30°N-35°N, 120°E-125°E） is only 47.1 m/s. As a result, the present study demonstrates that non-stationary and in-homogeneous effects should be taken into consideration in the estimation of extreme wind speed.展开更多
Return periods calculated for different environmental conditions are key parameters for ocean platform design.Many codes for offshore structure design give no consideration about the correlativity among multi-loads an...Return periods calculated for different environmental conditions are key parameters for ocean platform design.Many codes for offshore structure design give no consideration about the correlativity among multi-loads and over-estimate design values.This frequently leads to not only higher investment but also distortion of structural reliability analysis.The definition of design return period in existing codes and industry criteria in China are summarized.Then joint return periods of different ocean environmental parameters are determined from the view of service term and danger risk.Based on a bivariate equivalent maximum entropy distribution,joint design parameters are estimated for the concomitant wave height and wind speed at a site in the Bohai Sea.The calculated results show that even if the return period of each environmental factor,such as wave height or wind speed,is small,their combinations can lead to larger joint return periods.Proper design criteria for joint return period associated with concomitant environmental conditions will reduce structural size and lead to lower investment of ocean platforms for the exploitation of marginal oil field.展开更多
基金financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology(863 program)(2006AA09A103-4)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11232012)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)knowledge innovation program(KJCXYW-L02)
文摘In offshore engineering design, it is considerably significant to have an adequately accurate estimation of marine environmental parameters, in particular, the extreme wind speed of tropical cyclone （TC） with different return periods to guarantee the safety in projected operating life period. Based on the 71-year （1945-2015） TC data in the Northwest Pacific （NWP） by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） of US, a notable growth of the TC intensity is observed in the context of climate change. The fact implies that the traditional stationary model might be incapable of predicting parameters in the extreme events. Therefore, a non-stationary model is proposed in this study to estimate extreme wind speed in the South China Sea （SCS） and NWP. We find that the extreme wind speeds of different return periods exhibit an evident enhancement trend, for instance, the extreme wind speeds with different return periods by non- stationary model are 4.1%-4.4% higher than stationary ones in SCS. Also, the spatial distribution of extreme wind speed in NWP has been examined with the same methodology by dividing the west sea areas of the NWP 0°-45°N, 105°E-130°E into 45 subareas of 5° × 5°, where oil and gas resources are abundant. Similarly, remarkable spacial in-homogeneity in the extreme wind speed is seen in this area： the extreme wind speed with 50-year return period in the subarea （15°N-20°N, 115°E-120°E） of Zhongsha and Dongsha Islands is 73.8 m/s, while that in the subarea of Yellow Sea （30°N-35°N, 120°E-125°E） is only 47.1 m/s. As a result, the present study demonstrates that non-stationary and in-homogeneous effects should be taken into consideration in the estimation of extreme wind speed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51279186)the National Program on Key Basic Research Project (2011CB013704)
文摘Return periods calculated for different environmental conditions are key parameters for ocean platform design.Many codes for offshore structure design give no consideration about the correlativity among multi-loads and over-estimate design values.This frequently leads to not only higher investment but also distortion of structural reliability analysis.The definition of design return period in existing codes and industry criteria in China are summarized.Then joint return periods of different ocean environmental parameters are determined from the view of service term and danger risk.Based on a bivariate equivalent maximum entropy distribution,joint design parameters are estimated for the concomitant wave height and wind speed at a site in the Bohai Sea.The calculated results show that even if the return period of each environmental factor,such as wave height or wind speed,is small,their combinations can lead to larger joint return periods.Proper design criteria for joint return period associated with concomitant environmental conditions will reduce structural size and lead to lower investment of ocean platforms for the exploitation of marginal oil field.
