Multi-parameters uncertainty analysis of logistic support process based on GERT

The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique（MTP-GERT） is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis,a global sensitivity analysis（GSA） method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.

ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model for mission effectiveness of joint operation system

Effectiveness evaluation of the joint operation system is an important basis for the demonstration and development of weapon equipment.With the consideration that existing models of system effectiveness evaluation seldom describe the structural relationship among equipment clearly as well as reflect the dynamic,the analog-to-digital converter-graphical evaluation and review technique(ADC-GERT)network parameter estimation model is proposed based on the ADC model and the joint operation system structure.Firstly,analysis of the joint operation system structure and operation process is conducted to build the GERT network,where equipment subsystems are nodes and activities are directed arches.Then the mission effectiveness of equipment subsystems is calculated by the ADC model.The probability transfer parameters are modified by the mission effectiveness of equipment subsystems based on the Bayesian theorem,with the ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model constructed.Finally,a case study is used to validate the efficiency and dynamic of the ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model.

PS-G-GERT Effectiveness Evaluation Model of Link-Based GEO Satellite Communication Constellation under Poor Information Background

The effectiveness evaluation of GEO satellite communication constellation not only characterizes the communication capability of the constellation but also provides a basis for optimizing the constellation structure.Whether due to information poverty or the complexity of the system,the impact of uncertain information on the effectiveness evaluation needs to be considered to ensure the accuracy of the evaluation results.To address this issue,this paper develops a model for evaluating the GEO satellite communication constellation’s effectiveness in the context of poor information.Firstly,it analyses the GEO satellite communication constellation plus system based on communication links with an in-depth analysis of the constellation structure.Secondly,an equivalent transfer function algorithm based on the characteristic function and transfer probability is proposed with the help of graphical evaluation and review technique.Then,by analyzing the communication link importance connotation,the algorithm formula of communication link effectiveness and its importance is derived,and the constellation effectiveness and variance are found.Finally,the model constructed in this paper is used to evaluate the effectiveness of a GEO satellite communication constellation,further verifying the accuracy and validity of the model.Through comparative analysis,it is shown that the model can not only solving the effectiveness of the constellation but also analyzing the variation of its effectiveness.It lays a theoretical foundation for the analysis and optimization of the GEO satellite communication constellation effectiveness.

PERT and CPM in Project Management with Practical Examples

This paper reviewed the concepts of Project Evaluation Review Technique and Critical Path Method in project management with practical examples. The methods and success of quantitative decision-making approaches in project management through the use of project evaluation review technique and the critical path method as regards project duration and critical activities of a project, were discussed. The review found that while both methods are effective in achieving success in project management, the relationship and connectivity of activities involved in a project life cycle are key aspects. The paper concludes that the project evaluation review technique is more effective when the duration of the project is uncertain, while the critical path method is effective when the project’s end time is certain. The paper, therefore, recommends that to achieve maximum operative efficiency in utilizing resources in project management, prior to commencing the execution of a project, all required resources to cover every activity must be assembled and prioritized to eliminate interruptions that could bring delay and unnecessary cost implications. Again, policies focused on improving project execution should be implemented in developing nations to minimize the many cases of failed and delayed projects. Subsequently, stakeholders in projects must be given the right, under the law, to prosecute the government, its agencies and/or the executors of projects for failure to execute a project on schedule.

A Brief Review on Application of Information Technique to Agrometeorological Disaster Reduction

Disaster reduction strategy of agrometeorological disasters is a very complicated systematic project. The system is divided into two subsystems: agrometeorological disaster subsystem and dis aster reduction strategy subsystem. The agrometeorological disaster subsystem incIudes the whole process of disaster from occurrence, development to extinction. The subsystem of disaster reduction strategy is strategy measures included prevention, resistance and remedy of disaster The system involves monitoring, forecasting, prevention, resistance, control, loss assessment of disaster and efficiency analysis of disaster reduction. Therefore, modern information techniques (remote sensing, artificial intelligence, crop simulation etc. ) are necessary for improving the a bility of prevention and reduction of