INFLUENCE OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON SHANGHAI ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND STORM SURGE AND ESTIMATION OF PROBABLE WATER LEVEL

A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai region and to estimate numerically the probable maximum water lerel for2010 - 2050. Evidence suggests tha SLR causes reduction of SS; that its influence on SS depends on theintensity and path of a tropical cyclone and the station locality; tha the SLR’s effects on AT vary periodi-cally, with the peried being the same as tha of the AT’s: and that as the SLR increment grows, its impactincreases; below mean sea level (MSL) the effect is positive at rising tide and negative at ebb tide, andvice versa for the effect above MSL. Study of the probable maximum water level (by assuming SLR, SSalong favorable tropical cyclone’s path, its possible maximum intensity and effectivee spring AT at a rangeof set paths of Cyclones 5612, 8114, 9417) showed that the probable maximum water level is 740, 745,and 751 cm in the years 2010, 2030, and 2050, respetively, over the target region.

FORECAST OF IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON THELOW COLONIZED ISLANDS AND THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER MOUTH

As a worldwide authoritative, IPCC forecasted in 1990 that the world- s sea level would most probably rise by 0. 66 m by the end of the 21 st century. Combined with the local depression caused by the sink of the earth’s crust and the human activity, the relative sea level in the Chanaiiang River mouth will rise by about 1. 0 m during the same peried. Based on this figure, the article forecasted the impacts of sea-level rise on the safety coefficient of coastal structures and civil facilities, loss of wetlands, flood hazard as well as water intrusion. The results show that: 1 ) 40% as large as the present engil1eering mass should be added to the coastal structures in order to maintain the safety coefficient; 2 ) a dynamic loss of 60 km2 of wetlands, as much as 15% of the present total area, would be caused; 3) to hinder the increase inflood hazard dy11amic capacity to drain water must increase by at least 34 times as large as the present; 4) to maintain the present navigation conditions, about 100 million yuan (RMB) is needed to reconstruct over 30(X) bridges and 30 sluices;and 5 ) the disastrous salt water intrusion caused by the sea-level rise could be encountered by the increase in water discharge from the Three Gorge Reservoir in the dry season.

Failure mechanism of a large-scale composite deposits caused by the water level increases

The failure of slope caused by variations in water levels on both banks of reservoirs is common.Reservoir landslides greatly threaten the safety of reservoir area.Taking large-scale composite deposits located on the Lancang River in Southwest China as a study case,the origin of the deposits was analyzed based on the field investigation and a multi-material model was established in the physical model test.Combined with numerical simulation,the failure mechanism of the composite deposits during reservoir water level variations was studied.The results indicate that the deformation of the large-scale composite deposits is a staged sliding mode during the impoundment process.The first slip deformation is greatly affected by the buoyancy weight-reducing effect,and the permeability of soil and variation in the water level are the factors controlling slope deformation initiation.The high water sensitivity and low permeability of fine grained soil play an important role in the re-deformation of deposits slope.During the impoundment process,the deformation trend of the deposit slope is decreasing,and vertical consolidation of soil and increasing hydrostatic pressure on the slope surface are the main reasons for deformation attenuation.It is considered that the probability of large-scale sliding of the deposits during the impoundment period is low.But the damage caused by local bank collapse of the deposit slope still needs attention.The results of this paper will further improve our understanding of the failure mechanism of composite deposits caused by water level increases and provide guidance for the construction of hydropower stations.

IMPACTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALT WATER INTRUSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARY

Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water.The implications of sea level rise for increasing salinity have been examined in the Changjiang(Yangtze)River estuary.By correlative analysis of chlorinity,discharge and tidal level and calculation of two-dimensional chlorinity,distribution of the Changjiang River estuary,the changes of the intensity and lasting hours of salt water intrusion at Wusong Station and the changes of chlorinity distribution in the South Branch of the Changjiang River estuary have been estimated when future sea level rises 50-100 cm.The intensity of salt water intrusion in the future will be far more serious than current trend.

Saline Intrusion Response to Sea Level Rise and Its Implications on Water and Coastal Management: A Case Study in Brazil

Global temperature is predicted to increase in the end of the century and one of the primary consequences of this warming is the sea level rise. Considering the vulnerabilities on coastal systems and water resources, it is important to evaluate the potential effects of this rising in coastal areas, since the saline intrusion on rivers would be intensified, leading to problems related to water quality. In this context, the present work aimed to verify saline intrusion changes along an important river, S&#227o Francisco Canal, located in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. For this purpose, a hydrodynamic modeling was performed using SisBaHiA, considering different sea levels and tide conditions. According to the results, it was verified the intensification on saline intrusion and higher salinity values due to a sea level rise of 0.5 m. These results show that new licenses for water withdrawals must be carefully analyzed as the fluvial flow plays an important role to contain the saltwater intrusion on the studied river. Accordingly, it is recommended the evaluation of climate change effects in order to choose best strategies to reduce coastal vulnerability, and the use of this theme on environmental licensing and territorial planning, integrating water planning with coastal management.

Estimation of Peak Water Level in Pearl River Estuary under the Background of Sea Level Rise

[Objective] The study aimed to predict the peak water level in Pearl River Estuary under the background of sea level rise. [Method] The changing trends of peak water level at Denglongshan station and Hengmen station were analyzed firstly on the basis of regression models, and then sea level rise in Pearl River Estuary in 2050 was predicted to estimate the 1-in-50-year peak water level in the same year. [Result] Regression analyses showed that the increasing rate of peak water level over past years was 6.3 mm/a at Denglongshan station and 5.8 mm/a at Hengmen station. In addition, if sea level will rise by 20, 30 and 60 cm respectively in 2050, it was predicted that the 1-in-50-year peak water level will reach 3.04, 3.14 and 3.44 m at Denglongshan station, and 3.19, 3.29 and 3.59 m at Hengmen station separately. [Conclusion] The estimation of peak water level in Pearl River Estuary could provide theoretical references for water resources planning.

Impact of Grouting and Loading of Building Construction on the Water Level of Tangshan Mine Well

The water level rising rate of Tangshan mine well significantly accelerated in 2010,and the ascensional range was obviously higher than that of the same period in previous years.From the view of groundwater dynamics and loading effects,and based on the water pumping( pouring) water test model and semi-infinite elastic space theory model under uniform load,the effects of grouting and loading of nearby building construction on the well water level were analyzed. Results show that grouting at a distance of 200 ~ 700 m to the well,with amount of 2500m3 per day and duration of 270 d,can cause an 8 ~ 11 m rise of well water level; and loading of large-area building construction can cause about a 4m rise of well water level. Through the analysis of these factors,we find that the water level anomalous rising of Tangshan mine well was relevant to grouting and loading of the nearby building construction. This study provides a scientific basis for anomalous rising analysis of water level of Tangshan mine well.

Prediction of China's Submerged Coastal Areas by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change

Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 （IPCC, 2001）, and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21 st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year retum period. The total flooding areas are 98.3× 10^3 and 104.9× 10^3 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0× 10^3, 64.1×10^3 and 15.3 × 10^3 km2 in 2050 and 5.2 × 10^3, 67.8×10^3 and 17.2 × 10^3 km2 in 2080, respectively.

Case analysis of water exchange between the Bohai and Yellow Seas in response to high winds in winter

Based on the data from a special project titled China's Offshore Marine Integrated Investigation and Evaluation as well as Regional Ocean Modeling Systems(ROMS)diagnostic numerical model,we studied the influence of high wind processes on the circulation and water exchange between the Bohai and Yellow Seas(BYS)in winter.The results show that the vertical structure of the Yellow Sea Warm Current(YSWC)is relatively uniform under condition of high winds,showing obvious barotropic features.However,this flow is not a stable mean flow,showing strong paroxysmal and reciprocating characteristics.A comparison of the changes in sea level suggests that the intensity of the northwards upwind flow is consistent with the abnormal fluctuations in the sea level.It indicates that the upwind flow is closely related to the water exchange between the BYS.The impact of high wind processes on the water exchange between the BYS is enormous.It can make the flux through the Bohai Strait,as well as that through the mouth of each constituent bay(i.e.,Liaodong Bay,Bohai Bay,and Laizhou Bay)far greater than usual,resulting in a significant increase in the water exchange rate.The exchange capacity,which is about 8%of the total volume of the Bohai Sea,can be completed in a few days.Therefore,the water exchange of the Bohai Sea may be completed by only a few occasional high wind processes in winter.

Counteracting the Effects of Sea Level Rise in Southeast Florida

Over the past 100 years, worldwide surface temperatures have increased at an unprecedented rate, contributing to warming of the oceans, melting ice fields and glaciers, and other adverse climatic effects. Southeast Florida＇s vulnerability derives from its geographic location, low elevation, porous geology, unusual ground and surface water hydrology, subtropical weather patterns, and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. The region is especially susceptible to sea level rise. After several millennia of stable sea levels prior to the 20th century, sea levels have been rising at accelerating rates due to thermal expansion of the oceans and from land-based ice melt The Everglades ecosystem and the water supplies for southeast Florida are particularly vulnerable as neither can be protected without significant expenditures of public dollars, and even these efforts may not prove to be successful. New approaches may be required to improve the resilience and prolong the sustainability of the region＇s water resources and ecosystem. The efforts to adapt to sea level changes in both the urban area and ecosystem as outlined herein are date and incident based-climate changes may occur earlier or later so instead of spending limited public dollars early, expenditures can be adjusted given future information.

Water Intrusion in the Chesapeake Bay Region: Is It Caused by Climate-Induced Sea Level Rise?

Sea level rise due to climate change is a contentious issue with profound geographic and economic implications. One region in the USA identified as being particularly susceptible to seal level rise is the Chesapeake Bay region, and it has been estimated that by the end of the century Norfolk, Virginia could experience sea level rise of 0.75 meters to more than 2.1 meters. Water intrusion is a serious problem in much of the Chesapeake Bay region. The question addressed here is whether this water intrusion is the result of climate-induced seal level rise or is being caused by other factors. Our findings indicate that the water intrusion problems in the region are due not to “sea level rise”, but primarily to land subsidence due to groundwater depletion and, to a lesser extent, subsidence from glacial isostatic adjustment. We conclude that water intrusion will thus continue even if sea levels decline. These findings are critical because the water intrusion problems in the Chesapeake Bay—and elsewhere—cannot be successfully solved unless their causes are correctly identified and appropriate remedies are devised. For the Chesapeake Bay region, the required remedy is the reversal of groundwater withdrawal rates, which has been used successfully elsewhere in the USA and other nations to solve water intrusion problems.

Empirical Assessment of Coastal Environmental Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise (SLR) could critically endanger the environment along all the world’s sea coasts. Although sudden SLRs of meters-high waves that might have apocalyptic results would generally be limited to specific areas, on-going SLR of dozens of cms over decades is likely to have adverse impact on coastal environments throughout the world. This study’s objective is to assess relative regional vulnerability of global sea coasts to SLR. The study focuses upon key natural and anthropogenic parameters that might either cause or enhance SLR and thus significantly influence regional coastal environments. Careful assessment can enable reasonable estimates of relative vulnerability of such environments. An initial step involves specifying key parameters and assigning their weightings and ratings. To demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, six seacoast regions from various parts of the world have been considered in this paper, assessing their natural and anthropogenic parameters vis-à-vis general global data. The results emphasize the relative vulnerability of these areas’ environments to SLR. Recommendations are then made for improving global SLR modeling and monitoring.

Study of Water Flow in a Single Clay Crack

A model has been constructed to study water flow in a single clay crack, and a new concept of the critical rise rate of water level in the crack has been put forward. When the water level rises faster than this critical rate, the flow in a crack will increase, and vice versa. The flow in a crack is not in proportion to the water level. The maximium water flow in clay is 30-40 times smaller than that in a rock fissure under the same condition. In the process of water discharge, the flow in a crack will lessen gradually, and the crack will grow narrower by 3.0-4.0cm, with its depth reducing by over 50%.

Impact of Tidal River Management (TRM) for Water Logging: A Geospatial Case Study on Coastal Zone of Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a floodplain dominated country. Coastal delta areas of Bangladesh convey multiple impacts of climate change worth-hit. Most of the rivers carry a huge amount of sediment from upstream piedmont area. The river bed rises due to insufficient upstream water supply. Similarly, the deposited sedimentation creates a large number of sandbars inside the river. That’s why, water logging and siltation turn into a serious problem in the south-western region of Bangladesh, especially in Satkhira, Khulna and Jessore district. In the middle of September, 2011 the Tidal River Management (TRM) project approved at the study site for four years to develop the water logging problem with basic consideration of silt management. In this circumstance, this study focused on the consequences of the TRM on water logging in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Primary and secondary data have been used. Geospatial analyses have been used following the NDWI in Arc GIS for water logging area detestation using Landsat Enhance Thematic Mapper (ETM) and Landsat Operational land Image (OLI) satellite images. The geo-spatial analysis denoted, about 5090 acres of agricultural land and about 729 acres of homestead land have been water logged during TRM implementation period.

变化条件下长江口防洪御潮及供水保障研究进展与展望

近一个世纪以来,全球气候变暖导致海平面持续上升,增加了整个长江口的水深,抬高了潮汐和风暴潮的基础水位,使得河口咸潮入侵,洪水和风暴潮发生的频率和强度增加。同时,由于长江流域水土保持和水库群建设,进入河口的泥沙量锐减,加剧了河口咸潮上溯,对区域人群生产生活产生一定影响。从全球气候变暖背景下长江口海平面上升和演变规律、长江口人类活动与气候变化影响下的动力要素变化、河口咸潮入侵时空分布和水盐交换机制及供水安全风险、海平面上升对海堤防洪御潮能力的影响、长江口地区防洪御潮韧性等5个方面总结归纳了现有研究成果,提出未来研究的方向,以期对保障河口地区水资源安全利用和防洪御潮能力提升提供参考。

水位升降和潮汐水位作用下围堰的安全稳定性

为了分析水位升降和潮汐水位作用下滨海区域围堰的安全稳定性,基于厦门市集美岛车站工程实例,应用Plaxis有限元程序的非饱和土渗流理论,采用有限元强度折减法,进行不同水位升降速度及潮汐水位循环作用下围堰的稳定性分析,通过围堰的安全系数变化曲线分析水位变化对围堰稳定性影响的机理。结果表明:围堰安全系数在水位升高时减小,水位上升速度越快,围堰安全系数减小速率越大;水位下降时存在临界水位降速,临界水位降速为1.0 m·d^(-1),当水位下降速度超过临界水位降速时,围堰安全系数先减小后增大,当水位下降速度小于临界水位降速时,围堰安全系数逐渐增大;围堰安全系数在落潮时增大,在涨潮时减小,潮汐振幅越大,围堰安全系数增值越大,随着循环次数的增加,相邻两次循环间围堰安全系数增量逐渐减小并趋于稳定。

海面上升导致泄洪延时-子牙新河案例分析

【研究目的】尽管人们普遍认为全球变化背景下的海面上升是海岸带环境变化的重要驱动因素,但对一个具体地区而言,仍缺少定量化的影响评估,以至于气候变化基础研究与海岸带实际经济社会活动之间存在日渐明显的脱节。本文是试图弥合这种脱节的一次探索。【研究方法】2023年夏秋京冀津地区大暴雨,达到了1963年之后60年一遇的量级,造成生命财产和区域经济的重大损失。本文根据子牙新河洪水闸口泄洪的具体案例,探寻海面上升潮位升高泄洪延时之间可能存在的因果关系。【研究结果】研究发现在21世纪海面上升背景下,渤海湾西岸存在潮位升高1 cm、泄洪时间减少0.02小时的潮位上升与泄洪延时之间的定量时空关系。【结论】提出潮位高于洪水位时不能泄洪的“临界点”概念,并根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)关于海面上升的最新预案,尝试做出了今后三个时间节点(2030、2040和2050年)的泄洪延时预测。

不同水位升降速率对库岸桥基边坡稳定性影响分析

为了研究库水位升降下桥基岸坡的稳定性,以西南地区某桥基岸坡为例,开展室内物理试验,并基于非饱和渗流理论,应用geostudio软件计算不同水位升降速率下桥基岸坡的渗流场、位移场与稳定性系数变化规律。结果表明:水位升降,坡内浸润线既有同步性,又有滞后性,滞后性随水位升降速率增大而增强。岸坡横向位移在水位升降时,先快速增加后缓慢减少,最大横向位移发生于桥基左侧岸坡上;水位升降速率增加,前期横向位移变化速率加快、变化幅度增大。桥基岸坡稳定性系数在水位上升时先快速增加后逐渐减小,在水位下降时先快速减小后缓慢增加。

水位变动和杆塔荷载对水电站源端输电线路区域边坡稳定性的影响

针对库区及河道沿岸岸堤和边坡由于水力作用侵蚀和水位变动影响边坡稳定性的问题,基于Geo-Studio有限元软件,采用极限平衡原理对某水库岸坡进行稳定性分析,重点考察水位骤降对岸坡稳定性的影响,得到了岸坡安全系数随水位骤降的时间变化关系以及不同库岸水位升降速率下边坡浸润线的变化规律。同时,分析了库水位变化耦合杆塔荷载对水电站源端输电线路区域的边坡稳定性的影响。结果表明:岸坡稳定系数随水位的骤降迅速下降后缓慢增大最后趋于平稳;岸坡稳定系数随水位的上升迅速增大后缓慢减小,最后趋于平稳;水位变动耦合杆塔荷载共同作用时,边坡稳定系数变化趋势与无杆塔荷载作用时基本一致,但临界滑动面安全系数显著降低。此外,水位上升和下降的速率对边坡均具有显著影响。