Geostructures, dynamics and risk mitigation of high-altitude and long- runout rockslides

Long-runout rockslides at high altitude could cause disaster chain in river basins and destroy towns and major infrasturctures.This paper firstly explores the initiation mechanism of high-altitude and long-runout rockslides.Two types of sliding-prone geostructure models,i.e.the fault control type in orogenic belt and the fold control type in platform area,are proposed.Then,large-scale experimental apparatus and associated numerical simulations are conducted to understanding the chain-style dynamics of rockslide-debris avalanche-debris flow.The results reveal the fragmentation effects,the rheological behaviors and the boundary layer effect of long-runout avalanche-debris flow.The dynamic character-istics of quasi-static-transition-inertia state and solid-liquid coupling in rapid movement of rockslide-debris avalanche-debris flow are investigated.Finally,the risk mitigation strategy of the non-structure and structure for resilient energy dissipation are illustrated for initiation,transition and deposition zones.The structural prevention and mitigation methods have been successfully applied to the high-altitude and long-runout rockslides in Zhouqu and Maoxian of the Wenchuan earthquake zone,as well as the other major geohazards in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas.

Conceptual Strategy for Mitigating the Risk of Hydrogen as an Internal Hazard in Case of Severe Accidents at Nuclear Power Plant Considering Existing Risks and Uncertainties Associated with the Use of Traditional Strategies

Hydrogen challenge mitigation stands as one of the main objectives in the management of severe accidents at Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Key strategies for hydrogen control include atmospheric inertization and hydrogen removal with Passive Autocatalytic Recombiners (PARs) being a commonly accepted approach. However, an examination of PAR operation specificity reveals potential inefficiencies and reliability issues in certain severe accident scenarios. Moreover, during the in-vessel stage of severe accident development, in some severe accident scenarios PARs can unexpectedly become a source of hydrogen detonation. The effectiveness of hydrogen removal systems depends on various factors, including the chosen strategies, severe accident scenarios, reactor building design, and other influencing factors. Consequently, a comprehensive hydrogen mitigation strategy must effectively incorporate a combination of strategies rather than be based on one strategy, taking into consideration the probabilistic risks and uncertainties associated with the implementation of PARs or other traditional methods. In response to these considerations, within the framework of this research it has been suggested a conceptual strategy to mitigate the hydrogen challenge during the in-vessel stage of severe accident development.

Review of Empirical Studies on Climate Risk—Effects and Activism

This review focuses on major contemporary empirical studies that examine both the physical and regulatory sides of climate risk. These studies explore how climate risk affects firms’ operating performance and leverage, stock and bond valuation, cost of capital, and managerial behavior. We also discuss how the effect of climate risk on real estate markets depends on individuals’ beliefs about climate change. Furthermore, we summarize papers on climate risk activism and how firms can employ financial devices and technology to mitigate their climate risk. Finally, we make some recommendations for further research areas.

Risk Analysis of the Development of Sustainable Dongtan

Dongtan is set to be developed as a sustainable urban-rural integration,aiming to attract a wide range of commercial and leisure investments.The Shanghai Industrial Investment Corporation(SIIC),the largest international investment group owned by the Shanghai municipal government,is leading the Dongtan project in partnership with Arup.The project’s risks are categorized into eight major groups:(1)Force majeure,(2)people-related risks,(3)financial and economic risks,(4)political and country risks,(5)environmental risks,(6)completion-related risks,(7)design-related risks,and(8)technology risks.Among these,political risk is particularly notable for its high probability and significant impact.Effective project risk management is essential to foresee and address uncertainties that could jeopardize the project’s objectives and timelines.Appropriate strategies must be implemented to manage and mitigate these risks.

Risk identification and risk mitigation during metro station construction by enlarging shield tunnel combined with cut-and-cover method

Constructing a metro station by enlarging shield tunnels combined with a mining/cut-and-cover method provides a new method to solve the contradictions of construction time limits of shield tunnels and stations. As a new-style construction method, there are several specific risks involved in the construction process. Based on the test section of Sanyuanqiao station on Beijing metro line 10, and combined with the existing methods of risk identification at present, including a review of world-wide operational experience of similar projects, the study of generic guidance on hazards associated with the type of work being undertaken, and discussions with qualified and experienced staff from the project team, etc., the specific risks during the construction process of the metro station constructed by enlarging shield tunnels combined with the cut-and-cover method are identified. The results show that the specific risks mainly come from three construction processes which include constructing upper enclosure structures, excavating the soil between shield tunnels and demolishing shield segments. Then relevant risk mitigation measures are put forward. The results can provide references for scheme improvement and a comprehensive risk assessment of the new-style construction method.

Risk Allocation and Mitigation in Nigeria’s Privatisation Programme—A Case Study of Electric Power Sector Privatisation

Under the Nigerian privatisation programme, the issues of risk allocation and mitigation were never always properly handled. Historically, there had always been a tendency to dump all the project risks on the private sector partner without properly evaluating whether it was capable of managing them. Extant literature has shown that where the comparative advantages of parties to handle risks are not properly taken into consideration, the allocation of risk is unbalanced and the tendency for the project to run into difficulties and/or fail increases. This paper looks at the electric power sector privatisation, distilling how key project risks were handled under the exercise. This should be a good pointer as to whether the privatisation exercise would be a success in the long run.

Understanding the Importance of Effective Third-Party Risk Management on Data Governance

With a view to adopting to the globalized business landscape,organizations rely on third-party business relationships to enhance their operations,expand their capabilities,and drive innovation.While these collaborations offer numerous benefits,they also introduce a range of risks that organizations must carefully mitigate.If the obligation to meet the regulatory requirements is added to the equation,mitigating the third-party risk related to data governance,becomes one of the biggest challenges.

Development of CONTHAC-3D and hydrogen distribution analysis of HPR1000

An in-house code,CONTHAC-3D,was developed to calculate and analyze thermal-hydraulic phenomena in containments during severe accidents.CONTHAC-3D is a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code that can be applied to predict gas flow,diffusion,and steam condensation in a containment during a severe hypothetical accident,as well as to obtain an estimate of the local hydrogen concentration in various zones of the containment.CONTHAC-3D was developed using multiple models to simulate the features of the proprietary systems and equipment of HPR1000 and ACP100,such as the passive cooling system,passive autocatalytic recombiners and the passive air cooling system.To validate CONTHAC-3D,a GX6 test was performed at the Battelle Model Containment facility.The hydrogen concentration and temperature monitored by the GX6 test are accurately predicted by CONTHAC-3D.Subsequently,the hydrogen distribution in the HPR1000 containment during a severe accident was studied.The results show that the hydrogen removal rates calculated using CONTHAC-3D for different types of PARs agree well with the theoretical values,with an error of less than 1%.As the accident progresses,the hydrogen concentration in the lower compartment becomes higher than that in the large space,which implies that the lower compartment has a higher hydrogen risk than the dome and large space at a later stage of the accident.The amount of hydrogen removed by the PARs placed on the floor of the compartment is small;therefore,raising the installation height of these recombiners appropriately is recommended.However,we do not recommend installing all autocatalytic recombiners at high positions.The study findings in regard to the hydrogen distribution in the HPR1000 containment indicate that CONTHAC-3D can be applied to the study of hydrogen risk containment.

Seismic pattern treatment method through calculation of seismic density at grid nodes

Analysis of seismic data and seismicity characteristics in China, we gave a method to deal with seismic patterns by calculating density at grid nodes. Number of earthquakes and epicenter distribution are considered comprehensively in this method. Effect of datum accuracy is stressed on parameter confirmation. Seismic patterns from this method are stable and can reflect seismic characteristics reliably. These seismic patterns are the base of quantitative analysis of seismicity. It can be applied in seismic tendency analysis and medium-long term earthquake prediction, earthquake countermeasure and risk mitigation.

Energy-Based Approach to Structural Robustness

The robustness analysis is conducted from the viewpoint of energy. A new method to robustness appraisal is developed, in which a dimensionless form of the amount of energy that the structure absorbs serves as a robustness index. A flexural member is adopted for illustrative purpose. Furthermore, the relationships between the robustness index and the ratio of ultimate strain to yield strain of four typical members are defined. It is shown that the index proposed herein can reflect the influence of member behavior in terms of robustness. Finally, methods of ensuring structural robustness are discussed.

The Neglected Role of Risk Mitigation Perception in the Risk Governance of Underground Technologies——The Example of Induced Seismicity

Subsurface technologies,such as geothermal energy and carbon capture and storage,are options to help limit global warming.Subsurface tech no logies involve the risk of induced seismicity.The successful implementation of these technologies depends on the public perception of these risks.Risk governance frameworks propose assessing the level of public concern and designing adapted risk mitigation measures.We propose that concerns should not only be investigated with respect to the perceived risks but also with respect to the potential mitigation measures.We explore this by analyzing the perception of risk mitigation measures for different subsurface technologies.With an online survey(N=808)in Switzerland we analyzed four technologies(in-between subject design)and four mitigation measures(within subject design).We found that risk mitigation measures are perceived differently,within and across technologies.Thus,public concerns about risk mitigation really matter.We suggest that future research should focus on how risk mitigation measures can be applied and communicated to realize the full potential of risk governance frameworks.

Long-Term Improvement in Precautions for Flood Risk Mitigation:A Case Study in the Low-Lying Area of Central Vietnam

Local actors appear as inseparable components of the integrated flood risk mitigation strategy in Vietnam.Recognizing this fact,this study examined the long-term improvement in precautions taken by commune authorities and households between two major floods in 1999 and 2017 by applying both quantitative and qualitative methods.Two flood-prone villages were selected for a survey;one in a rural area and the other in a suburban area of Thua Thien Hue Province,central Vietnam.The findings indicate that most villagers doubted the structural works’efficacy and were dissatisfied with the current efforts of local authorities.Households’self-preparation thus became the decisive factor in mitigating risk.While most households have paid greater attention to flood precautions in 2017,others seem to be lagging.Poverty-related barriers were the root causes restraining households in both rural and suburban villages.The suburban riverine residents were further identified as vulnerable by their limitations in upgrading structural measures,which was ascribed to the inconsistency in the ancient town’s preservation policy.This multidimensional comparison,in terms of vulnerability,emphasized the importance of space-function links in the suburb and the contradictions of different policy initiatives,such as landscape rehabilitation,disaster prevention,and livelihood maintenance.

The“Urban Water Machine”:A Landscape-Based Approach for Urban Planning

Climate change is confronting cities across the globe,resulting in extreme weather conditions:floods,droughts,forest fires,and hurricanes.These natural hazards have become so severe that it is increasingly difficult to manage them.Urbanization,which has marginalized nature and water over time,has exacerbated these conditions.By replacing natural features with hardscape,cities are less adaptive to environmental fluctuations,and climate-related hazards are intensified,through heat island effect for example.Streets,squares,and parts of the city are inundated by water.The need to give space to water and nature in the city is more urgent than ever.The essential relationship between water and humans gave birth to our cities.This relationship has evolved across time and geography,and our current climate and ecological crises are calling us to take the next step in this evolution.Improving natural systems within the city,including a holistic approach for rivers,waterways,and green corridors,will improve resilience to flash floods and drought,contribute to heat mitigation,and improve urban living conditions.It will create possibilities for new economic,environmental,community,and social developments.A contemporary and healthy relationship between humanity and nature requires creating a basic,sustainable,spatial framework that upgrades and connects larger green and water(blue)structures.These blue-green structures should also be linked within the city and within its neighborhoods.The new mechanism to balance water in the city will be an integrated system,what we call the“urban water machine”.By integrating our natural and man-made water systems with each other,and with green spaces in and around the urban environment,we can regenerate the“urban water machine”and use it as the basis for a truly holistic approach to spatial planning.To shape our contemporary relationship with water,it is important to develop both innovative design tools and spatial typologies.A design approach based on the“urban water machine”provides climate adaptive solutions with nature-based design tools within the green landscape framework combined with blue-green design tools in public spaces.Such a holistic approach will help to care for the city as a whole,making them more beautiful,vibrant,and resilient.

The contribution of maps to the challenges of risk communication to the public

Risk communication is a significant challenge in risk management.It serves different purposes;an important one is to improve the public risk awareness and mitigation.Because of the strong spatio-temporal component of natural hazards,maps can play a decisive role in communicating risk information.The application and design of maps for risk communication especially to the public has not been investigated comprehensively.Specific constraints and challenges of risk communication have not been considered systematically in the map design process so far.This study aims at developing a frame for the application and design of interactive risk and hazard maps for the public which is based on the specific constraints and challenges of risk communication.In a literature review it introduces concepts and methods from social sciences and psychology,which have been assessed as important for communicating risk information.The concepts and methods are adapted to map-mediated risk communication according to the approaches of Activity Theory.Communication objectives and tasks which are essential to improve risk mitigation are identified and geovisualization methods for information presentation are related according to the degree which they are able to serve them.Based on this,some principles for map-based risk communication are established.

How far have we come?Review of main public policies to reduce landslide impacts in Brazil

During the rainy season in Brazil,landslides can have catastrophic consequences,including loss of life,damage to urban infrastructure and significant economic impacts.Now,more than eight million people in Brazil live in disaster-prone areas.The objective of this article is to present a chronological review of the principal policies and programmes at the national,state,and municipal levels,with an emphasis on their key actions aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters related to natural hazards,particularly landslides.Our analysis was based on official records of public policies from the national,state,and municipal governments.The results show that several initiatives were initially developed at the local and regional level.However,it was not until the late 1980s that a comprehensive organisation of civil protection at the national level emerged as a response measure.It is possible to highlight three phases(understanding,coexistence,and prevention)of institutional action focused on risk management in the face of disasters.Despite the growing knowledge of risk scenarios,disasters continue to occur in Brazil on an annual basis,revealing several obstacles to reducing their impact,particularly given the social and economic disparities between Brazilian regions and the applicability of public policies that must overcome the limitations of each municipality.

Tourism Developments Increase Tsunami Disaster Risk in Pangandaran, West Java, Indonesia

On 17 July 2006,the tourist resort of Pangandaran on Java’s south coast was hit by a tsunami,resulting in 413 fatalities and severe damage to buildings.The tsunami resulted in major rebuilds with a focus on mass tourism.Assessments of the impact of a future tsunami focussed on building development and suggest limited change since 2006.This article presents a case study on the development of(largely domestic)tourism in Pangandaran and how this has increased the tsunami disaster risk.Tourist numbers were stable at about 900,000 visitors a year prior to the tsunami,down to slightly over 250,000 visitors a year in its aftermath,and from 2007 onwards numbers are doubling every three years to about 4 million visitors in 2019.The increase has been most pronounced during weekends.Prior to 2006,Pangandaran was characterized by wooden structures and one-and two-story buildings of clay-brick masonry;by 2019,14 three to sixstory hotels have been erected along the waterfront.With many more visitors,most of whom are unfamiliar with tsunami risks,and shelter facilities for less than a quarter of visitors during peak times,future impacts and the potential cost to life are considerably higher now than in 2006,especially if a tsunami were to hit over a weekend.All tourists upon arrival and throughout their stay should be better informed about the risks of tsunamis,and of the location of tsunami shelters and evacuation routes.

Key knowledge gaps for One Health approach to mitigate nanoplastic risks

There are increasing concerns over the threat of nanoplastics to environmental and human health.However,multidisciplinary barriers persist between the communities assessing the risks to environmental and human health.As a result,the hazards and risks of nanoplastics remain uncertain.Here,we identify key knowledge gaps by evaluating the exposure of nanoplastics in the environment,assessing their bio-nano interactions,and examining their potential risks to humans and the environment.We suggest considering nanoplastics a complex and dynamic mixture of polymers,additives,and contaminants,with interconnected risks to environmental and human health.We call for comprehensive integration of One Health approach to produce robust multidisciplinary evidence to nanoplastics threats at the planetary level.Although there are many challenges,this holistic approach incorporates the relevance of environmental exposure and multi-sectoral responses,which provide the opportunity to identify the risk mitigation strategies of nanoplastics to build resilient health systems.

Geological and surfacial processes and major disaster effects in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB) is characterized by active geological and tectonic processes, rapid geomorphological evolution, and distinct climatic diversity. Correspondingly, major disasters in the YRB are characterized by varied types,extensive distributions, and sudden occurrences. In addition, major disasters in the YRB usually evolve into disaster chains that cause severe consequences. Therefore, major disasters in the YRB destroy ecologies and environments and influence geological and ecological safety in the basin. This paper systematically reviews research on geological and surface processes, major disaster effects, and risk mitigation in the YRB, discusses the trends and challenges of relevant research, analyzes the key scientific problems that need to be solved, and suggests prospects for future research based on the earth system science concept. Themes of research that should be focused on include geological, surface and climatic processes in the YRB and their interlinking disaster gestation mechanisms;formation mechanisms and disaster chain evolutions of giant landslides in the upper reach of the YRB;mechanisms and disaster chain effects of loess water-soil disasters in the middle reach of the YRB;occurrence patterns and amplifying effects of giant flood chains in the lower reach of the YRB;and risk mitigations of major disasters in the YRB. Key scientific problems that need to be solved are as follows: how to reveal the geological, surface and climatic processes that are coupled and interlinked with gestation mechanisms of major disasters;how to clarify the mutual feedback effects between major disasters and ecology;and how to develop a human-environmental harmony-based integrated risk mitigation system for major disasters. Prospects for future studies that follow the earth system science concept include the following: highlighting interdisciplinary research to reveal the interlinked disaster gestation mechanisms of the geology, surface and climate in the YRB in the past, present, and future;forming theories to clarify the regional patterns, dynamic mechanisms, and mutual-feedback effects between disaster chains and ecology in the YRB on land and in rivers in the region;solving technological bottlenecks to develop assessment models and mitigation theories for integrated risks in the YRB by following the human-environment harmony concept;and finally, establishing a demonstratable application pattern characterized by "whole-basin coverage" and "zonal controls", thereby guaranteeing ecological and geological safety in the basin and providing scientific support for ecological conservation and high-quality development of the YRB.

地缘环境系统模拟研究（英文）

Geographical circumstances are the fundamental background for all kinds of geopolitical events. The geopolitical environment system（GES） refers to a system that combines both physical and anthropogenic subsystems. Research on the geopolitical environment system simulation is a key to understanding the international geopolitical phenomenon. The theory of GES arose from the integration of the traditional geopolitics and earth system sciences. As an interdisciplinary system composed of many different fields, integrated reviews and a metadata study of GES are urgently needed. This paper presents a comprehensive view into the origination and advance of the GES theory. The conceptual framework of the GES is described in detail. The methodology for simulating and forecasting geopolitical events is also provided. It is proposed that the core topics of the GES science may include, but are not limited to, issues as data acquisition technologies; principles on the interactions between multiple subsystems（or factors） at different scales; evaluating and mitigating the global geopolitical risks, including the political risks, economic risks, the social risks, the environmental risks and the technological risks; and forecasting the geopolitical events with machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques.

Role of multi-purpose cyclone shelters in India: Last mile or neighbourhood evacuation

India follows a strategy of having Multi-Purpose Cyclone Shelters along the coastline for tropical cyclone risk mitigation.These shelters are meant to provide refuge to vulnerable populations at the time of a cyclonic storm and otherwise to be used as school,community centres etc.This paper aims to examine the exact role which these Multi-Purpose Cyclone Shelters seek to perform;as a safe shelter for people living in a tropical cyclone threatened region or meant for those who fail to evacuate due to various reasons.Based on qualitative method and field work conducted after four cyclones which made landfall on India’s east coast during 2013 e19,this study argues that lack of clarity over its role has led to an emphasis on increasing number of Multi-Purpose Cyclone Shelters proportionate to the population size without due examination of its safety and sustainability aspects.