Trade credit contracting in a risk-averse supply chain under adverse selection and moral hazard

Trade credit,as an effective tool for integrating and coordinating material,information,and financial flows in supply chain management,is becoming increasingly widespread.We explore how a manufacturer can design optimal trade credit contracts when a risk-averse retailer hides its sales cost information(adverse selection)and selling effort level(moral hazard).We develop incentive models for a risk-averse supply chain when adverse selection and moral hazard coexist,which are then compared with the results under single information asymmetry(moral hazard).Moreover,we analyze the effects of private information and risk-aversion coefficient on contract parameters,selling effort level and the profit or utility of the supply chain.The study shows that when the degree of retailer’s risk aversion is within a certain range,reasonable trade credit contracts designed by the manufacturer can effectively induce the retailer to report its real sales cost and encourage it to exert appropriate effort.Furthermore,we find that the optimal trade credit period,optimal transfer payment,and retailer’s optimal sales effort level under dual information asymmetry are less than those under single information asymmetry.Numerical analysis are conducted to demonstrate the effects of the parameters on decisions and profits.

Optimal Portfolio Selection of Wind Power Plants Using a Stochastic Risk-Averse Optimization Model, Considering the Wind Complementarity of the Sites and a Budget Constraint

This work focuses on the best financial resources allocation to define a wind power plant portfolio, considering a set of feasible sites. To accomplish the problem formulation and solution, the first step was to establish a long-term wind series reconstruction methodology for generating scenarios of wind energy, applying it to study five different locations of the Brazilian territory. Secondly, a risk-averse stochastic optimization model was implemented and used to define the optimal wind power plant selection that maximizes the portfolio financial results, considering an investment budget constraint. In a sequence, a case study was developed to illustrate a practical situation of applying the methodology to the portfolio selection problem, considering five wind power plants options. The case study was supported by the proposed optimization model, using the scenarios of generation created by the reconstruction methodology. The obtained results show the model performance in terms of defining the best financial resources allocation considering the effect of the complementarity between sites, making it feasible to select the optimal set of wind power plants, characterizing a wind plant optimal portfolio that takes into account the budget constraint. The adopted methodology makes it possible to realize that the diversification of the portfolio depends on the investor risk aversion. Although applied to the Brazilian case, this model can be customized to solve a similar problem worldwide.

Value-at-risk under ambiguity aversion

This study explored the effects of ambiguity on the calculation of Value-at-Risk(VaR)using a mathematical model based on the theory of Choquet-Brownian processes.It was found that while a moderate degree of ambiguity aversion yields a higher value for VaR and Expected Shortfall(ES),the result can be reversed in a deeply ambiguous environment.Additionally,some sufficient conditions are provided for the preservation of this effect under various forms of risk aggregation.This study offers a new perspective to full awareness on capital requirement calculation as requested by international regulation.

Risk Factors for Geo-Helminthiasis in Children Aged 6 - 36 Months in a Rural Health District in Cameroon

Introduction and Objectives: Soil-Transmitted-Helminthiasis (STH) is a public health problem in Cameroon. The control strategies currently in place, particularly chemoprevention, has shortcomings linked to the target population, which are school-age children. The objective was to determine the prevalence and the risk factors associated with geo-helminthiasis in children aged 0 to 3 years in a rural health district. Method: From December 2020 to May 2021, a descriptive and analytical cross-sectional study of 376 children between 6 and 36 months was carried out in the Akonolinga health district. This was a cluster sampling in 4 health areas. Stool samples were collected and analysed using the mini-FLOTAC method. The results expressed as the number of eggs per gram of stool. A questionnaire on socio-demographic and lifestyle data was administered to the parents. The Chi-squared test was used to measure the association between geo-helminth infection and the data collected. A multivariate analysis using logistic regression was performed (p 0.05). Results: The prevalence of STH was 19.4% (Ascaris lumbricoides: 16% and Trichuris trichiura: 8%). Risk factors were: consumption of contaminated water (AOR = 1.93 [1.03 - 3.6];p = 0.040), early contact of the child with the ground (before age of 4 months) (AOR = 4.9 [2.1 - 11.37];p .001), habit of walking barefoot (AOR = 2.91 [1.1 - 7.97];p = 0.038), and living in a habitat with unpaved ground (AOR = 7.4 [1.55 - 35.7];p = 0.012). Conclusion: The prevalence of STHs in infants was high. Preventive chemotherapy should be extended to this age-group, and other measures intensified.

Systematic Reform and Risk Aversion in the Interregional Flow of Chinese Rural Labor Force --Wuhan Case Study

Based on Wuhan city investigation, this paper makes a positive analysis to the uncertainty of shifting rural labors to urban areas, and put forward thoughts and countermeasures to avert the risk of the interregional flow of rural labors.

存货质押融资中考虑银行Downside-risk的回购契约设计

本文研究供应链金融中存货质押融资模式下回购契约的设计问题,即在需求不确定和银行下侧风险(Downside-risk)规避的前提下,通过对契约合同中变量范围的控制实现供应链的协调。文中首先给出了考虑银行利息与风险规避在内的供应链契约模型,然后分别分析了银行下侧风险控制模型下供应商的促销成本分担比例的下限值和在不减少供应商期望收益原则下该比例的上限值,最终得出该下限值由银行下侧风险控制指标和质押量共同决定,而当销售商的订购量越多时,供应商愿意接受的努力成本分担比例上限值也越大,并给出相应的上下限值。

Analysis of Conditional Value-at-Risk for Newsvendor with Holding and Backorder Cost under Market Search

We consider a distribution system with one supplier and two retailers. For the two retailers, they face different demand and are both risk averse. We study a single period model which the supplier has ample goods and the retailers order goods separately. Market search is measured as the fraction of customers who unsatisfied with their ＂local＂ retailer due to stock-out, and search for the goods at the other retailer before leaving the system. We investigate how the retailers game for order quantity in a Conditional Value-at-Risk framework and study how risk averse degree, market search level, holding cost and backorder cost influence the optimal order strategies. Furthermore, we use uniform distribution to illustrate these results and obtain Nash equilibrium of order strategies.

Applications of the Aversion Order of Risks in Reinsurance

The aversion order is a way of ordering of risks. Is there the optimal in aversion order in reinsurance contracts of reinsurance？ This paper discusses these objects and gives some optimal reinsurance contracts in certain sets of feasible reinsurance contracts.

Activity of the Fungicide JS399-19 Against Fusarium Head Blight of Wheat and the Risk of Resistance

This report reviews the characteristics of JS399-19, a novel cyanoacrylate fungicide. JS399-19 strongly inhibits the mycelial growth of the fungal plant pathogens of the genus Fusarium and exhibits great potential in controlling Fusarium head blight （FHB） on wheat and other cereals. The mode of action of JS399-19 is evidently different from that of benzimidazole （for example, carbendazim） and other sort of fungicides, making it a possible replacement for carbendazim in China to manage carbendazim-resistant subpopulations of Fusarium graminearum and F. asiaticum. JS399-t9 has excellent protective and curative activity against these pathogens. Incorrect use of this fungicide, however, is likely to select for resistance. Among JS399-19-resistant mutants of F. asiaticum induced in the laboratory, the resistant level of mutants was high and the phenotype of resistance against JS399-19 was conferred by a major gene by genetic analysis. The fitness of laboratory-induced JS399-19-resistant mutants of F. asiaticum was nearly equal to that of their parents. JS399-19 lacks cross resistance with other sort fungicides. To control FHB with JS399-19 and to delay the development of the fungicide-resistance, farmers should use tank mixtures containing JS399-19 and carbendazim, metconazole, tebuconazole, or prothioconazole.

Risk Assessment M ode of Sale-Leaseback——Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Sale-leaseback is paid special focus on for its great application in China in recent years.By giving a detailed analysis,an analysis of the features of sale-leaseback and a study of the risks of it are given in this paper.Then a quantitative analysis of commercial real estate sale-leaseback is carried out.The scientific theoretical analysis is provided in this paper for risk assessment in commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode in China.An effective approach is put forward for sale-leaseback project evaluation and prevention of risk.A useful means is given to supervise commerciai real estate sale-leaseback mode for relevant departments and a certain contribution is made to a further sound development of commercial real estate sale-leaseback mode.

Some Likelihood Based Properties in Large Samples: Utility and Risk Aversion, Second Order Prior Selection and Posterior Density Stability

The likelihood function plays a central role in statistical analysis in relation to information, from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. In large samples several new properties of the likelihood in relation to information are developed here. The Arrow-Pratt absolute risk aversion measure is shown to be related to the Cramer-Rao Information bound. The derivative of the log-likelihood function is seen to provide a measure of information related stability for the Bayesian posterior density. As well, information similar prior densities can be defined reflecting the central role of likelihood in the Bayes learning paradigm.

The risk aversion measures in Architectural Engineering Project Management

With the continuous development of the construction industry, the scale and volume of the construction project is expanding. And the project management of the construction project still has the big risk problem which influenced by many factors. These risks will not only bring unnecessary interference to the construction of the project, but also may jeopardize the safety of people＇s life and property. It is the focus of this article to do a good job in risk aversion in the management of construction projects.

BAX G(-248)A Gene Polymorphism and Its Association with Risk of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer—A Case Control Study

Pro-apoptotic Bcl-2 protein BAX is an important member of mitochondrial dependent apoptosis regulation and ultimately plays a pivotal role in malignancies. A promoter G(-248)A polymorphism in the TP53 binding region of BAX results in differential binding capacity of TP53 protein there by regulating its expression, which has been found to be associated with different clinical outcomes in various malignancies. Presently we aimed to analyze the possible impact of the BAX G(-248)A polymorphism on the risk and other clinical features of non-small cell lung cancer in Indian population. The BAX promoter polymorphism was analyzed in blood samples of 320 subjects with 1:1 case/control ratio by primer-introduced restriction analysis PCR and survival curves were plotted using Kaplan-Meier analysis. It was observed that more than 3-fold increased risk of developing non-small cell lung cancer was associated with homozygous AA genotype of BAX G(-248)A promoter polymorphism in Indian population, with more predominant in smokers with pack-year > 45 (heavy) and using cigarette or huka as their smoking source than homozygous GG genotype. Significant associations was observed between TNM stage (p = 0.037) and histological type (0.02), of non-small cell lung cancer patients with the polymorphism. Patients homozygous for A allele exhibited a significant poor overall survival compared with patients displaying GA + AA or GA or GG genotype [median survival 6.0 vs 9.0, 11.0, and 30.0 months, respectively (p < 0.0001)]. Adenocarcinoma and advanced stage patients with AA genotype showed lower median survival time than squamous cell carcinoma and early stage non-small cell lung cancer patients (median 3.0 and 5.0 vs 8.0 and 9.0 months, respectively). We conclude that the genetic polymorphism G(-248)A in the TP53 binding promoter region of pro-apoptotic genes BAX may contribute to the risk of developing non-small cell lung cancer in Indian population and also may be an important factor for adverse clinical outcome for patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

United States Healthcare Data Breaches: Insights for NIST SP 800-66 Revision 2 from a Review of the NIST SP 800-66 Revision 1

Healthcare security and privacy breaches are occurring in the United States (US), and increased substantially during the pandemic. This paper reviews the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) publication base as an effective solution. The NIST Special Publication 800-66 Revision 1 was an essential standard in US healthcare, which was withdrawn in February 2024 and superseded by SP 800-66 Revision 2. This review investigates the academic papers concerning the application of the NIST SP 800-66 Revision 1 standard in the US healthcare literature. A systematic review method was used in this study to determine current knowledge gaps of the SP 800-66 Revision 1. Some limitations were employed in the search to enforce validity. A total of eleven articles were found eligible for the study. Consequently, this study suggests the necessity for additional academic papers pertaining to SP 800-66 Revision 2 in the US healthcare literature. In turn, it will enhance awareness of safeguarding electronic protected health information (ePHI), help to mitigate potential future risks, and eventually reduce breaches.

偏好的异质性与一致性--基于损失厌恶和脑刺激的神经经济学研究

行为经济学家通过经验观察发现了个体风险决策中的损失厌恶现象,从而对经济学理性假说的公理体系构成了挑战。我们运用神经经济学的研究方法,通过经颅直流电刺激(t DCS)技术,从因果关系角度进一步验证了损失厌恶的神经机制。我们的研究发现,大脑神经系统对收益和损失的信息处理是非对称性的,从而使风险决策者的偏好表现出明显的逆转;但在给定的情境(收益或损失)下,决策者的行为偏好仍然服从一致性公理的要求。这一研究结果既可以拓展经济学对人类行为偏好的传统认识,又可以容纳行为经济学家对人类行为偏好的经验观察,从而为经济学基础理论的发展提供了一种可行的范式。

基于委托-代理理论的团队运作条件模型分析

分析了团队工作的协同效应与"搭便车"效应。建立了员工独立工作与团队工作的委托-代理模型。通过对比不同工作方式下委托人的收益,得出结论:团队合作是否优于个人单独工作取决于合作的协同系数、外生随机变量的方差、成员的风险规避度及努力成本系数;只有工作性质与人员特征相互匹配,使得4种因素满足一定条件时,团队运作才是有利的,否则独立工作是最佳选择。

信任是一种冒险行为吗？--实验经济学的检验

信任是人们合作的基础,是建立社会秩序的主要工具之一,但信任行为总是和风险决策相关联的。本文运用实验经济学的方法,设计信任博弈、风险博弈、彩票对选择等实验测度人们的信任程度与风险态度,探讨风险态度对信任行为的影响程度,考察人们在自然风险状态下和人际交往风险状态下的决策行为。结果发现风险厌恶对信任行为有抑制作用,但二者是情景依赖的;与人际交往风险状态相比人们更喜欢自然风险状态,背叛厌恶心理导致信任程度的降低;不同性别被试的风险态度存在显著差异,进而影响他们的信任程度;利他偏好对信任行为有着重要的促进作用。

黑河分水后张掖绿洲“生态-经济”系统风险规避研究

绿洲“生态-经济”系统具有先天脆弱性和敏感性,水资源任何形式的改变都会给绿洲“生态-经济”系统产生一定的扰动。2000年国家实施的黑河分水,给张掖绿洲农业、地下水循环、生态环境等方面带来一定的风险。作者以风险分析理论为主,提出“循环型经济社会”节水模式、“节水农业+轻工业+枢纽型城镇”发展模式、“水价+水权”水资源管理模式三种模式规避风险,促使“生态-经济”系统达到最大的稳定。

中国股权溢价之谜的检验──Hansen-Jagannathan方法的应用

通过对中国证券市场的实证研究,估计的中国投资者的相对风险回避系数远远大于10,即远大于Mehra和Prescott(1985)所认可的最高水平,证实了中国股市存在股权溢价之谜,并指出了解释中国股权溢价之谜的潜在研究路径。

基于双边风险厌恶及存在监督的委托-代理模型研究

研究了委托人与代理人双边风险厌恶及存在监督情形下的委托-代理问题.结论表明非对称信息下最优风险分担系数是委托人风险厌恶程度的递增函数,是代理人风险厌恶程度的递减函数,代理人努力水平是其风险厌恶程度的递减函数.监督措施的存在提高了对代理人的激励强度.