Evaluation of Deposit Insurance Fund Adequacy Using Credit Risk Model--An Indian Experience

There are two methods widely used for evaluating the adequacy of Deposit Insurance Fund： （i） Target Reserve Ratio and （ii） Credit Risk Model. Target Reserve Ratio is one of the macro level indicators more often set by Regulatory act on the basis of minimum Deposit Insurance Fund margin safety, Target Reserve Ratio is calculated as the ratio of Deposit Insurance Fund to the value of insured deposits. However, TRR does not take into consideration the level of Deposit Insurance potential liability, the Loss at Given Default （LGD） and the historical trend of default rate prevailing among the insured banks. It does not also consider the present condition of the economy and current scenario of the banking sector. This paper discusses primarily about development of Credit Risk Model for evaluating the Deposit Insurance Fund Adequacy. For this purpose, Econometric Credit Risk Model was developed based on the historical data of bank failures and the associated losses of the last 25 years from 1990-91 to 2014-15. The model assesses various possible factors impacting the Deposit Insurance Fund： Default rate, Deposit growth, Exposures, impact of macro-economic factors like GDP, GDS, Inflation and Interest rate changes, etc. on the Deposit Insurance Fund through econometric modeling. The model evaluates the adequacy of Deposit Insurance Fund under both （i） Normal scenarios where there is no （economic） systemic risk assumed and （ii） Worst case scenario at 1% level of significance using Monte Carlo Simulation. Since the model empirically validates all the critical factors impacting the assets and liabilities associated with Loss at Given Default, the model output can also be used to determine a suitable Target Reserve Ratio and such models are being used in countries like USA, Canada, Hong Kong, and Singapore, etc. （IADI, 2009）. More importantly, the model outputs are quite useful in determining the adequacy of deposit insurance fund which is an effective risk control measure that organization like Deposit Insurance Credit Guarantee Corporation （DICGC） can adopt both under normal economic scenario as well as worst case scenario, ensuring a strong financial safety net for the banking sector in India. The model also assesses the default probability and the Loss at Given Default of different types of banks： commercial banks, rural banks, cooperative banks, foreign banks, etc. A risk based on premium can possibly be determined for each type of banks in India.

Customer Asset Risk Discernment of E-commerce Enterprises Based on Case-based Reasoning

In the Internet economy of the twentieth century, the competition for customers between enterprises is stiffer so that they strive for customers by all means. As a kind of new thing in the Internet economy, E-commerce can attract customers and expand sales efficiently; therefore, E-commerce becomes a powerful means by which enterprises can improve customer asset rapidly. However, compared with customer asset of traditional commerce enterprises, E-commerce enterprises customer asset is more liable to be affected by the surroundings, which will result in risk. On the other hand, though enterprises pay close attention to the study of customer asset risk of E-commerce enterprises currently, the academic circles have made little research in this respect, which is not helpful for enterprises to improve customer asset by applying for E-commerce, nor can meet the actual requirement for the development of academic circles. Therefore, the customer asset risk discernment of E-commerce enterprises has been studied in this paper, and case-based reasoning（CBR） has been applied to the discernment of the customer asset risk of E-commerce enterprise, which provides quantitative basis for customer asset risk management of E-commerce enterprises and conduces to the prevention of customer asset risk and the efficiency improvement of E-commerce.

Risk Analysis of Information System Security Based on Distance of Information-State Transition

The configuration of information system security policy is directly related to the information asset risk, and the configuration required by the classified security protection is able to ensure the optimal and minimum policy in the corresponding security level. Through the random survey on the information assets of multiple departments, this paper proposes the relative deviation distance of security policy configuration as risk measure parameter based on the distance of information-state transition（DIT） theory. By quantitatively analyzing the information asset weight, deviation degree and DIT, we establish the evaluation model for information system. With example analysis, the results prove that this method conducts effective risk evaluation on the information system intuitively and reliably, avoids the threat caused by subjective measurement, and shows performance benefits compared with existing solutions. It is not only theoretically but also practically feasible to realize the scientific analysis of security risk for the information system.