Factors influencing hybrid maize farmers' risk attitudes and their perceptions in Punjab Province,Pakistan

Hybrid maize farmers have to face diverse kinds of climate, biological, price and financial risks. Farmers＇ risk perceptions and risk attitudes are essential elements influencing farm operations and management decisions. However, this important issue has been overlooked in the contemporary studies and therefore there is a dearth of literature on this important issue. The present research is therefore, an attempt to fill this gap. This study aims to quantify hybrid maize farmers＇ perceptions of disastrous risks, their attitudes towards risk and to explore the impacts of various farm and farm household factors on farmers＇ risk attitudes and risk perceptions. The present study is conducted in four hybrid maize growing districts of Punjab Province, Pakistan, using cross-sectional data of 400 hybrid maize farmers. Risk matrix and equally likely certainty equivalent （ELCE） method are used to rank farmers＇ perceptions of four catastrophic risk sources including climate, biological, price and financial risks and to investigate farmers＇ risk aversion attitudes, respectively. Furthermore, probit regression is used to analyze the determinants affecting farmers＇ risk attitudes and risk perceptions. The results of the study showed that majority of farmers are risk averse in nature and perceive price, biological and climate to be potential sources of risks to their farm enterprise. In addition, analysis divulges that distance from farm to main market, off-farm income, location dummies for Sahiwal and Okara, age, maize farming experience, access to extension agent, significantly （either negatively or positively） influence farmers＇ risk attitudes and risk perceptions. The study delivers valuable insights for farmers, agricultural insurance sector, extension services researchers and agricultural policy makers about the local understanding of risks to hybrid maize crop in developing countries, like Pakistan, and have implications for research on farmers＇ adaptation to exposed risks.

Risk Attitudes and Self-employment in China

Using the 2006 wave of the Chinese General Social Survey, the present paper examines the effect of risk attitudes on the likelihood of entrepreneurship in China. Our results show that risk attitudes have a nonlinear effect on the likelihood of being entrepreneurs. Risk neutral people are most likely to be entrepreneurs, while both risk averse and risk seeking people prefer to work for wages. When we further divide entrepreneurs into necessity and opportunity entrepreneurs, we find only a marginal difference in risk attitudes between wage workers and necessity entrepreneurs, while less risk averse individuals tend to be opportunity entrepreneurs. Our results have important poliey implications for the government ＂s efforts to promote entrepreneurial activities.

Past Experiences,Personality Traits,and Risk Aversion:Evidence from Individual Risk Attitudes during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Individuals’risk attitudes play an important role in economic decision making and policy evaluation,particularly in the midst of unprecedented uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.We adopt a multiple-price-list elicitation method with real money incentives to measure precisely individuals’risk attitudes at different stake levels and the extent to which they are affected by personal and social shocks following the COVID-19 outbreak in China.We find that subjects who had previously experienced negative personal shocks are more risk-averse at medium and large stakes but more risk loving at very small stakes.For our sample,COVID-19 has no significant impact on risk attitudes,as it is more likely to be regarded as a social shock.The result indicates that the impact of COVID-19 on individual risk attitudes is not as influential as expected,unless the individual’s personal life is affected directly.

Alpha-reliable combined mean traffic equilibrium model with stochastic travel times

Based on the reliability budget and percentile travel time(PTT) concept, a new travel time index named combined mean travel time(CMTT) under stochastic traffic network was proposed. CMTT here was defined as the convex combination of the conditional expectations of PTT-below and PTT-excess travel times. The former was designed as a risk-optimistic travel time index, and the latter was a risk-pessimistic one. Hence, CMTT was able to describe various routing risk-attitudes. The central idea of CMTT was comprehensively illustrated and the difference among the existing travel time indices was analyzed. The Wardropian combined mean traffic equilibrium(CMTE) model was formulated as a variational inequality and solved via an alternating direction algorithm nesting extra-gradient projection process. Some mathematical properties of CMTT and CMTE model were rigorously proved. Finally, a numerical example was performed to characterize the CMTE network. It is founded that that risk-pessimism is of more benefit to a modest(or low) congestion and risk network, however, it changes to be risk-optimism for a high congestion and risk network.

Public Risk Perception Attitude and Information-Seeking Efficacy on Floods:A Formative Study for Disaster Preparation Campaigns and Policies

Floods are among the most frequent and devastating natural hazards and disasters in many southern states in the United States.This study examined the relationship and reciprocal predictability between two theoretical constructs-risk perception attitude(RPA)and informationseeking efficacy(ISE)——in regard to pluvial floods.In addition,this study extended these theoretical constructs to investigate differences in RPA and ISE among potential audience segments,providing practitioners with applicable insights for designing effective flood prevention and risk management campaigns.Analysis of data from 716 residents in south Louisiana revealed a statistically strong relationship between RPA and ISE.This research also identified specific audience segments that would benefit from an increase in RPA and ISE concerning floods.These meaningful findings infonn a discussion of the theoretical and practical implications of the relationship between RPA and ISE and guide future disaster preparation campaigns and policies.

Bubbles and incentives:an experiment on asset markets

We explore the effects of competitive incentives and of their time horizon on the evolution of both asset prices and trading activity in experimental asset markets.We compare(i)a no-bonus treatment;(ii)a short-term bonus treatment in which bonuses are assigned to the best performers at the end of each trading period;(iii)a long-term bonus treatment in which bonuses are assigned to the best performers at the end of the 15 periods of the market.We find that the existence of bonus contracts does not increase the likelihood of bubbles but it affects their severity,depending on the time horizon of bonuses.Markets with longterm bonus contracts experience lower price deviations and a lower turnover of assets than markets with either no bonuses or long-term bonus contracts.Short-term bonus contracts increase price deviations but only when markets include a higher share of male traders.At the individual level,the introduction of bonus contracts increases the trading activity of males,probably due to their higher competitiveness.

A Stochastic Concession Model for Infrastructure Projects Under Build-Operate-Transfer Schemes

Concession period is a key factor in the arrangement of a build-operate-transfer(BOT) contract. This paper proposes a stochastic concession period model for infrastructure projects under a BOT scheme, which takes into account the impact of risks and the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. A hypothetical case is simulated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method to illustrate the proposed model. The results indicate that even for a project with the same estimations, the concession interval can be different and depends a lot on the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. The proposed model provides a more reasonable concession interval based on which a specific concession period can be obtained through negotiation between the two parties.

An Equilibrium Approach to the Aggregation of Beliefs

This paper presents a new answer to the old question of how to aggregate individual beliefs. We construct a model which allows agents to take arbitrage oppor- tunities against the aggregated belief by making contingent claims against the states, and the aggregator （market maker） regulates the probability of states. When all claims from the agents are mutually covered for every realization of the state, an aggregation of individual beliefs is thus obtained. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium aggregation, and also show that the aggregate belief lies in the convex hull of individual beliefs. This model allows us to address some important problems such as how individual agent＇s attitude toward risk and wealth endowment affect the outcome of the aggregation process, and whether the aggregate belief satisfies the well-known properties like equal treatment.