Supply chain coordination with participators' risk bias under buy-back contract

Considering participators' risk bias,which is measured by the method of value at risk,the risk constraints in a two-echelon supply chain coordination under buy-back contract is equal to giving the order of an upper bound.With a risk-averse dominant enterprise(M)and a risk-neutral non-dominant one(R),the coordination which optimizes the supply chain under the risk constraints is achieved by a penalty mechanism L to reduce R's order.With risk-neutral M and risk-averse R,M can motivate R to increase his order by providing a risk subsidy K,and two cases are discussed.If the risk constraints of R cannot satisfy M's participation constraint to offer K,M will prefer to accept R's order to obtain a sub-optimization solution of the supply chain.Or else,with M's K,R's optimal order just coordinates the supply chain,which is equal to the case without risk bias,and in this situation R's risk bias only affects the profit distribution between the participators.

Methodological quality(risk of bias) assessment tools for primary and secondary medical studies: What are they and which is better?

Methodological quality(risk of bias)assessment is an important step before study initiation usage.Therefore,accurately judging study type is the first priority,and the choosing proper tool is also important.In this review,we introduced methodological quality assessment tools for randomized controlled trial(including individual and cluster),animal study,non-randomized interventional studies(including follow-up study,controlled before-and-after study,before-after/pre-post study,uncontrolled longitudinal study,interrupted time series study),cohort study,case-control study,cross-sectional study(including analytical and descriptive),observational case series and case reports,comparative effectiveness research,diagnostic study,health economic evaluation,prediction study(including predictor finding study,prediction model impact study,prognostic prediction model study),qualitative study,outcome measurement instruments(including patient-reported outcome measure development,content validity,structural validity,internal consistency,cross-cultural validity/measurement invariance,reliability,measurement error,criterion validity,hypotheses testing for construct validity,and responsiveness),systematic review and meta-analysis,and clinical practice guideline.The readers of our review can distinguish the types of medical studies and choose appropriate tools.In one word,comprehensively mastering relevant knowledge and implementing more practices are basic requirements for correctly assessing the methodological quality.

医联网下医源性风险偏差感知扩散模型及干预

首先,本研究从多重网络理论视角出发,构建医联网环境下医源性风险偏差感知多渠道扩散模型.该模型考虑了医联网环境下不同信息渠道之间医源性风险偏差感知扩散的交互影响;其次,得出区分医联网下医源性风险偏差感知在公众中扩散开来与否的阈值;最后,利用实际数据对所建立的理论模型进行参数估计及案例分析.研究结论表明:1)与仅进行正确认知的宣传推广相比,在正确认知宣传的同时进行认知纠偏,医联网下医源性风险偏差感知的扩散效率将降低的更加明显;2)与仅对一种或两种渠道中医源性风险偏差感知的扩散进行深度管控相比,如果同时对所有渠道中医源性风险偏差感知的扩散均进行适度干预,医源性风险偏差感知的扩散效率将更显著地降低.

传播的负性偏向:网络政治安全风险识别及消解理路

网络政治安全是政治安全的组成部分,是政治传播安全在互联网场域的延伸和扩展。网络政治传播安全本应创造新型政治文明生态。多元主体与社会因素相互作用、相互交织,打破了网络政治传播安全应有的稳定性,带来网络政治安全的负性偏向传播风险。在个体心理认知建设、社会公共服务建设、国家政治制度建设三者的影响下,出现网络政治安全的偏向传播。网络政治安全面临着技术偏向传播中的民主失序、权力偏向传播中的结构极化、意识形态偏向的参与抗争、地缘偏向的政治龃龉四个层次的负性偏向传播风险。应该通过适应性治理平衡技术幻象、调控规制平衡公权力监督、群己共协平衡意识形态撕裂、善政平衡圈地隐忧,对网络政治安全的负性偏向传播风险进行责任治理等,不断推进网络政治安全。

A newfangled study using risk silhouette and uncertainty approximation for quantification of acyclovir in diverse formulation

Risk assessment and uncertainty approximation are two major and important parameters that need to be adopted for the development of pharmaceutical process to ensure reliable results.Additionally,there is a need to switch from the traditional method validation checklist to provide a high level of assurance of method reliability to measure quality attribute of a drug product.In the present work,evaluation of risk profile,combined standard uncertainty and expanded uncertainty in the analysis of acyclovir were studied.Uncertainty was calculated using cause-effect approach,and to make it more accurately applicable a method was validated in our laboratory as per the ICH guidelines.While assessing the results of validation,the calibration model was justified by the lack of fit and Levene＇s test.Risk profile represents the future applications of this method.In uncertainty the major contribution is due to sample concentration and mass.This work demonstrates the application of theoretical concepts of calibration model tests,relative bias,risk profile and uncertainty in routine methods used for analysis in pharmaceutical field.

Heterogeneous individuals’behavioral biases model and numerical simulation

A model of the relationships between individual cognitive biases and individual decision-making based on the analysis of cognitive biases of bonded rationality individual,has been established in this paper by introducing a set of new variables called overconfidence coefficient and attribution bias coefficient to the sentiment model. The irrational expectation and irrational risk aversion as two inseparable aspects of bonded rationality are expressed in an unified model,and a method of measuring individual cognitive biases is proposed,which overcomes the shortcomings of traditional normative models that can not describe the differences of behaviors among heterogeneous individuals. As a result,numerical simulations show that individual cognitive risk is a positive interaction with overconfidence coefficient,and a negative interaction with attribution bias coefficient.

突发公共卫生事件下偏颇质得分对生命质量的影响:疫情风险感知的中介作用

[目的]探讨疫情风险感知在8种偏颇质(气虚质、阳虚质、阴虚质、痰湿质、湿热质、血瘀质、气郁质、特禀质)与生命质量关系中的作用机制。[方法]于2022年初新型冠状病毒感染(COVID-19)疫情时期(2022年2月3—15日),以中医体质量表-30条目简短版、新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险感知评估量表和世界卫生组织生存质量测定量表简表进行网络调查,累计获得样本1181例。[结果]相关分析结果显示,偏颇质得分与生命质量得分均呈负相关(r为-0.321~-0.524,P<0.001),偏颇质得分与疫情风险感知均呈正相关(r为0.168~0.225,P<0.001),疫情风险感知与生命质量呈负相关(r=-0.202,P<0.001)。中介效应检验结果显示,疫情风险感知在偏颇质得分与生命质量间的中介效应均具有统计学意义(P<0.001),偏颇质得分对生命质量负面影响以直接效应为主,疫情风险感知的中介效应占总效应的比值从大到小依次是阳虚质(10.85%)、特禀质(8.88%)、湿热质(8.21%)、阴虚质(7.50%)、血瘀质(7.44%)、痰湿质(7.27%)、气虚质(6.36%)和气郁质(4.98%)。[结论]在突发公共卫生事件下,疫情风险感知在偏颇质得分与生命质量的关系中起不同程度的中介作用,但中介作用效果量均较小。

乳腺疾病中医体质分布及易患体质危险因素分析

目的:探索乳腺疾病中医体质分布规律,并分析易患体质的相关危险因素,为防治乳腺疾病提供参考。方法:选取126例乳腺疾病患者进行中医体质辨识,收集患者的一般资料,根据患者疾病类型分为乳腺恶性肿瘤组和乳腺良性疾病组,统计2组患者中医体质分布规律。结果:乳腺恶性肿瘤组分布最多的年龄段为50岁以上,乳腺良性疾病组分布最多的年龄段为35~50岁,2组年龄分布比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。乳腺恶性肿瘤组超重患者占52.5%,乳腺良性疾病组为32.3%,2组体质量指数(BMI)比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。乳腺恶性肿瘤组绝经率为78.7%,乳腺良性疾病组绝经率为21.5%,2组比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。2组体质类型分布均以气郁质、阳虚质、气虚质、痰湿质多见。通过二元Logistic回归分析发现,性情与气郁质呈正相关(P<0.05);超重与痰湿质呈正相关(P<0.05)。结论:相比乳腺良性疾病,恶性肿瘤患者年龄偏高,超重者占比较大,提示广大女性随着年龄增长,超重可能会增加罹患恶性肿瘤风险,要注意做好乳腺恶性肿瘤早期筛查工作。超重人群更易成为痰湿质,性情急躁人群更易成为气郁质,易患体质人群要及早进行偏颇体质的调整干预,减少乳腺恶性肿瘤的发生。

当局者迷,旁观者清? 自我-他人决策的理性差异及其机制

生活充满抉择,由于知识经验的局限,人们常需寻求他人建议,抑或直接请他人代己决策。诸多研究探讨了自我决策、向他人建议,以及代他人决策之间的差异。探究这种差异的动因之一在于考察何种条件下的决策更优或更"理性"。以往研究表明,自我决策或他人决策(向他人建议或代他人决策)均有可能更易违背理性决策原则,隐含着他人决策优于自我决策的"当局者迷,旁观者清"这一传统智慧有一定的边界条件。研究者一般从认知(建构水平理论)、情绪(类型和卷入度),以及动机(调节聚焦理论)三种视角对自我-他人决策差异进行解释。本文作者提出基于理由的决策(reason-based account)假设来解释自我-他人决策在理性程度上的差异。未来研究可从决策过程及脑机制上深入考察自我-他人决策差异及其机制。

认知偏差视角的管理创新引进机制实证研究

引进型管理创新的风靡突显其在提高组织绩效和获取持续竞争优势中不可替代的作用,与此同时,失败率居高不下的问题亦日益显现,究其原因在于作为管理创新决策直接负责人的核心管理者受到认知偏差的影响,导致所感知的创新风险偏低。由此,从认知偏差视角出发,收集237位企业核心管理者的数据,分析得出:过度自信、控制错觉和代表性法则与管理者管理创新风险感知负相关;风险感知与管理创新引进水平负相关;风险感知部分中介过度自信和控制错觉对管理创新引进水平的影响,并完全中介代表性法则对管理创新引进水平的影响。

消费者食品安全风险的认知偏差研究

借鉴行为经济学的研究成果,从信息获取、信息加工、信息输出和信息反馈阶段,系统分析了消费者食品安全风险认知偏差。基于江苏省消费者660份实地问卷调查数据,实证检验了消费者食品安全风险认知偏差。研究发现:消费者食品安全风险认知过程中存在严重的认知偏差,在信息获取阶段存在易记性偏差、易得性偏差和次序效用;在信息输出阶段存在过度自信;在信息加工阶段的简化信息处理过程中存在代表性启发、易得性启发和框架依赖;在信息反馈阶段存在损失厌恶。实证检验表明,消费者在信息输出阶段存在过度自信、信息加工阶段存在框架依赖,政府和企业食品安全风险沟通需要考虑到认知偏差的存在。

主观期望效用理论的发展

主观期望效用理论对人的决策的描述性效度一直受到怀疑,越来越多的实证研究表明与主观期望效用理论的公理相背离。文章指出主观期望效用理论的系统违背,并从当前实验经济学和心理学的两种研究取向上介绍主观期望效用理论的发展。

投资者预期偏误对投资收益的影响——以风险中性投资者为例

由于市场信息的不完全及投资者认知上的不足,投资者对风险资产的预期收益与实际收益总会存在不同程度的偏离。投资者对风险资产收益的预期偏误往往会影响其在金融市场上的投资决策,并最终影响到投资者实际的投资组合收益。那么,投资者的预期偏误会对投资者实际的投资组合收益产生怎样的影响?本文以风险中性投资者为例,给出投资者预期偏误大小的度量方法,建立出投资者预期偏误与投资收益的回归模型,用模拟论证的方法对二者的关系进行分析。

基于广义病例-队列设计方案的长度偏差数据回归分析

利用加权估计方程方法,在广义病例-队列设计方案下,针对长度偏差数据,给出Cox模型中回归系数的估计,并证明在适当的条件下,所得估计量具有相合性和渐近正态性,且渐近方差具有显式表达,在实际应用中可由plug-in方法估计.

社区干预—治未病模式预防脑卒中研究

目的:观察社区干预-治未病模式预防脑卒中的效果。方法:从广州市越秀区大东街社区(A区)和白云区新市街社区(B区)筛选出脑卒中高危人群各200例,对A区中研究人群采取治未病+常规干预措施,对B区中研究人群采取常规干预措施,观察不同干预模式对脑卒中防治效果的影响。结果:①A区高危人群脑卒中KAP比B区脑卒中高危人群增高,而偏颇体质积分、危险因素控制水平则分别下降,两者统计学比较具有显著差异(P<0.05);②A区高危人群脑卒中发病率、致残率、死亡率较B区明显下降,两组比较具有显著差异;③治未病+常规干预组预防脑卒中效益成本比为3.77。结论:脑卒中社区干预治未病模式的运作能明显降低脑卒中的发病率,致残率和死亡率,发挥社区卫生服务中心服务功能,减轻家庭和社会的经济负担,促进社会和谐。其运作简便,居民容易接受,可复制性强,易于推广。

大肠癌高危人群中医体质分布特点

目的:总结上海市浦东新区惠南镇地区大肠癌高危人群的中医体质分布特点。方法:选择1092例在上海市浦东新区光明中医医院接受肠镜检查的大肠癌高危患者为研究对象,在肠镜检查前由专人先进行中医体质辨识,体质辨识结束再接受肠镜检查。结果:1092例大肠癌高危人群中平和质为41.2%,基本平和质为7.9%,介于平和质与偏颇体质之间为21.9%,偏颇体质倾向为8.2%,偏颇体质为20.8%。偏颇体质中阳虚质为74.0%,气郁质为9.7%,阴虚质为5.3%,痰湿质为4.8%,气虚质为3.1%,湿热质为1.8%,血瘀质为1.3%,特禀质为0%。肠镜结果阳性患者中,平和质41.9%,基本平和质8.8%,平和质和偏颇体质之间19.4%,偏颇体质倾向8.1%,偏颇体质21.7%。偏颇体质类型中气虚质2.3%,阳虚质75.7%,阴虚质6.2%,痰湿质5.1%,湿热质1.7%,血瘀质1.1%,气郁质7.9%。结论:大肠癌高危患者的中医体质分布特点为阳虚质占第1位,气郁质占第2位,为防治大肠息肉、腺瘤发生发展及癌变提供临床指导。

我国消费行业间风险度量及相依性研究

对食品加工制造、饮料制造、服装家纺、白色家电、汽车整车行业板块指数进行风险度量及相依性研究,构建ARMA-GARCH-偏t模型,求得95%、99%置信水平下的VaR序列检验风险度量效果,采用C-Vine Copula与D-Vine Copula模型对由经验累积分布函数转化的99%置信水平下的VaR序列进行相依性研究,结果表明:ARMA-GARCH-偏t模型风险度量效果较好;C-Vine Copula表明服装家纺为风险传递的中心行业;D-Vine Copula表明饮料制造与汽车整车行业相关性最弱,D-Vine Copula模型更能体现行业间的风险相依关系。

Trial characteristics and treatment effect estimates in randomized controlled trials of Chinese herbal medicine: A meta-epidemiological study

Background:Previously published meta-epidemiological studies focused on Western medicine have identified some trial characteristics that impact the treatment effect of randomized controlled trials(RCTs).Nevertheless,it remains unclear if similar associations exist in RCTs on Chinese herbal medicine(CHM).Further,Chinese medicine-related characteristics have not been explored yet.Objective:To investigate trial characteristics related to treatment effect estimates on CHM RCTs.Search strategy:This meta-epidemiological study searched 5 databases for systematic reviews on CHM treatment published between January 2011 and July 2021.Inclusion criteria:An eligible systematic review should only include RCTs of CHM and conduct at least one meta-analysis.Data extraction and analysis:Two reviewers independently conducted data extraction on general characteristics of systematic reviews,meta-analyses and included RCTs.They also assessed the risk of bias of RCTs using the Cochrane risk of bias tool.A two-step approach was used for data analyses.The ratio of odds ratios(ROR) and difference in standardized mean differences (dSMD) with 95%confidence interval (CI) were applied to present the difference in effect estimates for binary and continuous outcomes,respectively.Results:Ninety-one systematic reviews,comprising 1338 RCTs were identified.For binary outcomes,RCTs incorporated with syndrome differentiation (ROR:1.23;95%CI:[1.07,1.39]),adopting Chinese medicine formula (ROR:1.19;95%CI:[1.03,1.34]),with low risk of bias on incomplete outcome data (ROR:1.29;95%CI:[1.06,1.52]) and selective outcome reporting (ROR:1.12;95%CI:[1.01,1.24]),as well as a trial size≥100 (ROR:1.23;95%CI:[1.04,1.42]) preferred to show larger effect estimates.As for continuous outcomes,RCTs with Chinese medicine diagnostic criteria (dSMD:0.23;95%CI:[0.06,0.41]),judged as high/unclear risk of bias on allocation concealment (dSMD:-0.70;95%CI:[-0.99,-0.42]),with low risk of bias on incomplete outcome data (dSMD:0.30;95%CI:[0.18,0.43]),conducted at a single center (dSMD:-0.33;95%CI:[-0.61,-0.05]),not using intention-to-treat analysis (dSMD:-0.75;95%CI:[-1.43,-0.07]),and without funding support (dSMD:-0.22;95%CI:[-0.41,-0.02]) tended to show larger effect estimates.Conclusion:This study provides empirical evidence for the development of a specific critical appraisal tool for risk of bias assessments on CHM RCTs.

Participant Heterogeneity of Systemic Scleroderma Interventional Trials Worldwide

Objective:Heterogeneity of participants in clinical trials distorts intervention efficacy.However,factors associated with participant heterogeneity in randomized clinical trials(RCTs)focusing on systemic sclerosis(SSc)are not clear.We conducted this systematic review to establish normative standards for future research and help develop management guidelines.Methods:Three databases and 4 registries were searched to identify characteristics of SSc RCTs across different countries.Risk of bias was assessed by the Cochrane Collaboration’s tool and logistic regression was performed to calculate crude and adjusted odds ratios.Results:In total,261 trials met our inclusion criteria.The quality of SSc RCTs worldwide was relatively poor,with no trend of improvement in recent years,and only 12.2%were ranked as having a low risk of bias.Trials with a low risk of bias as well as single-center,single-country,or open-label trials tended to have better participant adherence than trials with a high risk of bias and multiple-center,multiple-country,or double-blind trials.Interestingly,trial registration and primary outcome definition contributed to high withdrawal.National income was also relevant;participant adherence in high-income countries,but not in upper-and lower-middle-income countries,was significantly altered by different variables.Conclusion:Overall,the risk of bias,national income,and trial design may lead to participant heterogeneity of SSc RCTs and ultimately confound the general clinical utility of the results.Trials with a rigorous design and transparent conduction protocol are crucial for obtaining unbiased data that can serve as a reference and for maintaining the fundamental repeatability of SSc RCTs.

A novel biased proportional navigation guidance law for close approach phase

A novel biased proportional navigation guidance （BPNG） law is proposed for the close approach phase, which aims to make the spacecraft rendezvous with the target in specific relative range and direction. Firstly, in order to describe the special guidance requirements, the concept of zero effort miss vector is proposed and the dangerous area where there exists collision risk for safety consideration is defined. Secondly, the BPNG, which decouples the range control and direc- tion control, is designed in the line-of-sight （LOS） rotation coordinate system. The theoretical anal- ysis proves that BPNG meets guidance requirements quite well. Thirdly, for the consideration of fuel consumption, the optimal biased proportional navigation guidance （OBPNG） law is derived by solving the Schwartz inequality. Finally, simulation results show that BPNG is effective for the close approach with the ability of evading the dangerous area and OBPNG consumes less fuel compared with BPNG.