This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not qu...This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events）.Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that（a）project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,（b）while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,（c）improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and（d）projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution.Almost by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause problems.Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns.Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals.This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.展开更多
There are standard procedures for collecting data on numbers of birds at sites being proposed for wind farm development and evaluating collision risk for each key species. However, methods do not work well for all spe...There are standard procedures for collecting data on numbers of birds at sites being proposed for wind farm development and evaluating collision risk for each key species. However, methods do not work well for all species. Where a local bird population is depleted, empirical data cannot provide estimates of likely collision mortality numbers if that population returns to satisfactory conservation status. Field survey methods are also inadequate for cryptic bird species. Both these problems can be important for evaluation of impacts of proposed wind farms on bird populations protected by the EU Birds Directive. We present an alternative method, based on energy constrained activity budgets and natural history, which permits assessment of likely collision numbers where empirical data are inadequate. Two case studies are presented where this approach has been successfully used to resolve disputed planning applications, one for a hen harrier population where numbers present are much below the population size at designation, and one for a cryptic species (greenshank). Our novel method helps reduce uncertainty in assessments constrained by difficulties in collecting suitable empirical data.展开更多
文摘This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events）.Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that（a）project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,（b）while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,（c）improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and（d）projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution.Almost by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause problems.Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns.Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals.This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.
文摘There are standard procedures for collecting data on numbers of birds at sites being proposed for wind farm development and evaluating collision risk for each key species. However, methods do not work well for all species. Where a local bird population is depleted, empirical data cannot provide estimates of likely collision mortality numbers if that population returns to satisfactory conservation status. Field survey methods are also inadequate for cryptic bird species. Both these problems can be important for evaluation of impacts of proposed wind farms on bird populations protected by the EU Birds Directive. We present an alternative method, based on energy constrained activity budgets and natural history, which permits assessment of likely collision numbers where empirical data are inadequate. Two case studies are presented where this approach has been successfully used to resolve disputed planning applications, one for a hen harrier population where numbers present are much below the population size at designation, and one for a cryptic species (greenshank). Our novel method helps reduce uncertainty in assessments constrained by difficulties in collecting suitable empirical data.
