The Risk Evaluation of Agricultural High-tech Investment Project

The agricultural high-tech investment project (AHIP) is characterized by technology-intensive, high risk and great profit. This article analyzes essential factors of the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the traditional risk evaluation method of agricultural projects. We think that the applications of the sensitivity analysis and probability are defective. Therefore, this article introduces a structural model to evaluate the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the system of the concrete evaluation indexes.

Impacts of the Financial Factors on Schedule Delays Risk of the International Contracting Projects: Evidence from Highway BOT Pro-jects in Vietnam

Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse effects on local government and foreign investment companies. Based on international engineering contracting mode of Vietnam highway BOT construction projects, we discussed the drive financial factors of schedule delays, using the methods of exploratory factor analysis and questionnaire survey, and evaluated the effects of various factors which are through regression analysis. The empirical results show that the five categories of financial factors, including the policy change, slow payment, financial mismanagement, financial market changes and lack of fiscal, have significant effects on schedule delay. Furtherly, we suggested that strengthening policy research and improving financial management ability should be used to reduce the influence of relevant financial factors on schedule delay, to improve the profitability of international businesses and the motivation of foreign enterprises to participate in Vietnam highway project.

Estimation of Potential Risk of Reservoir-Induced Earthquake for the Proposed Hydroelectric Project on the Yangtze Gorges

The proposed hydroelectric project on the Yangtze Gorges will be one of the largest power stations in the world.The problem of induced seismicity to the project has attracted much attention throughout China and the world.A research program has been carried out by the State Seismological Bureau of China.Based on the size of the reservoir and the lithology,geological structure,permeability,stress state,and previous seismicity in the region,the potential risk of reservoir-induced seismicity has been estimated.The results suggest that,after impoundment in the reservoir area,the possibility of induced seismicity cannot be completely ruled out.The areas with potential risk may be in some gorges composed of karstified carbonate and plutonic granite around the dam site.However,the magnitude is expected to be limited owing to the small dimension of the induced seismogenic faults.

Research on Subcontractor Risk of EPC Hydropower Project in Vietnam

Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts are becoming the most popular form to undertake construction works on large-scale hydropower projects.?The EPC general contractors in Vietnam have been coped with lots of difficulties during the construction phase of hydropower projects, resulting in significant schedule delays and cost overrun. One of the reasons is poor Subcontractors capacity.?In order to overcome above, the current study attempts?to research on identification and control Subcontractors risks of delay process of EPC hydropower project in Vietnam.?Through summarizing international research achievements of previous researches relating on EPC hydropower projects combining with analysis characteristics of developing construction of EPC hydropower projects in Vietnam, the current study pointed out all kinds of subcontractor risk of delay process of EPC hydropower project in Vietnam;?a questionnaire with 18 risk elements was designed and then delivered to experts in EPC hydropower project management area. Based on the risk model, 11 main risk elements were identified which can be categorized into 3 groups.?Lastly, the current study proposed suggestions to reduce or avoid risks as well as approach to control risks.?Furthermore, the findings of this study can be a good managerial reference for project management teams who are working in other countries that have similar economic and investment environment to Vietnam to get their EPC construction project completed on schedule, thus ensuring the benefits to the government, the investor, the contractor, and the parties involved.

Research on Quality Risk of EPC Hydropower Projects in Vietnam

Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts are on the way to become the most usual form of contracting applied by the private sector to undertake construction works on large scale Hydropower projects. If EPC contract management is not implemented and controlled properly. Quality is the first important factor for any contractors who involve in the hydropower project execution. The purpose of this study is to investigate and evaluate risks causing not good quality of EPC hydropower projects in Vietnam. In addition, the study also provided the recommendations for project practitioners to mitigate the impacts of those identified risks. The findings of this study can be a good managerial reference for project management teams who are working in other countries that have similar economic and investment environments to Vietnam to get their EPC construction project completed on quality, thus will ensuring the benefits to the government, the investors, the contractors, and the parties involved.

Research on Risk Evaluation Method for International Engineering Projects

Risk evaluation is one of the important elements of international engineering project management. The risk factors of international engineering projects are systematically analyzed from multiple dimension features of the projects. The muhilayer evaluation index system for the international engineering project risk assessment is proposed and constructed, which consists of 8 I-grade indexes and 24 II-grade indexes as policy risk, market risk, resource risk, and technical scheme risk, schedule risk, funding risk, personnel risk and management risk. And then the self-evaluation and benchmarking evaluation methods are applied to evaluate the international engineering project risk, and established the corresponding mathematical models. Finally, a project evaluation example is given to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the mathematical models.

太原市垃圾处理PPP项目物有所值定量评价优化研究

以太原市垃圾处理PPP项目为研究对象,对物有所值定量评价方法进行优化。折现率方面,选择资本资产定价模型,计算体现行业特色的基础折现率,考虑通货膨胀因素,采用时间序列分析加以修正;风险分担方面,采用ANP——模糊综合评价法计算共担风险因素的政府和项目公司分担比例;风险量化方面,运用梯形模糊层次法确定风险损失权重,运用集值统计法确定风险发生概率。

Research on the risk-evaluation model of power transmission and transformation projects based on multilevel fuzzy-thought weighting for cloud-model improvement

The risk evaluation of power transmission and transformation projects is a complex and comprehensive evaluation process influenced by many factors and involves many indicators.In order to solve the uncertainty and fuzziness problems in the process of the multilevel fuzzy risk evaluation of power transmission and transformation projects,this paper introduces the cloud theory,which is specialized in the study of uncertainty problems and constructs the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive risk-evaluation model of power transmission and transformation projects based on the improved multilevel fuzzy-thought weighting based on the cloud model.Finally,the risk of the Beijing 220-kV Tangyu power transmission and transformation project is evaluated and the feasibility of the evaluation model is verified.The results of the evaluation and the evaluation layer cloud model are combined with MATLAB simulation to show that the risk level of the project is between large risk and general risk.

基于改进FAHP的水利工程EPC总承包项目风险管理研究

结合水利工程EPC总承包项目的自身特点,建立改进FAHP的风险评判模型,最后,进行实证分析。结果表明,基于改进FAHP的水利工程EPC总承包项目风险评判模型具有一定的科学性和适用性,同时,研究结果对提高水利工程EPC总承包项目风险管理水平具有一定的参考意义。

水电工程定量综合风险评价方法优化研究及应用

针对目前水电工程定量综合风险评价方法存在的主观性缺陷问题,建立了定量综合风险评价方法计算的模型,通过构建模糊关系矩阵和风险互判矩阵,从而定量求得综合风险值及等级,结合建立的综合风险等级与安全评价结论之间的判定准则,得到工程整体风险等级及评价结论。以新疆若羌抽水蓄能电站工程安全预评价为例,对定量综合风险评价方法进行了验证,结果表明,评价结论符合工程实际,水电工程定量综合风险评价优化方法可应用于工程安全预评价和安全验收评价。

煤矿智能化项目风险评价云模型及其应用

为解决煤矿智能化项目风险评价过程中,指标量化困难和评价系统难以兼顾随机性和模糊性的问题,采用云模型理论,对系统进行定量综合评价。首先,基于煤矿智能化系统建设项目进行多维度分析,建立项目风险多指标多维度的评价体系;然后,运用层次分析法(AHP)确定主观权重,CRITIC法确定客观权重,通过组合赋权方式确定指标权重矩阵;采用云模型实现指标定量与定性之间的转换,完成煤矿智能化项目的风险评价,并根据评价结果提出针对性的政策建议,最大程度降低项目现有风险;最后,以国家能源集团某煤矿为例,开展煤矿智能化项目建设和实施过程的风险评价,验证文中所提方法的科学性和有效性。结果表明:云模型可定量评价煤矿智能化项目风险,评价结果有助于化解现场风险隐患,提高风险管控能力,且具有一定的科学性和有效性。

供给主体视角下红树林碳汇项目全生命周期风险测度与评价研究——以湛江红树林造林项目为例

发展海洋碳汇对于建设人与自然和谐共生的美好世界具有重要意义,红树林作为海洋碳汇的重要来源,拥有强大的固碳和储碳能力,具有较高的生态价值和经济价值,因此,加快开发红树林碳汇是应对气候变化的重要战略选择。本文基于三角模糊数和结构方程构建红树林碳汇项目风险测度模型,选取湛江红树林造林项目这一我国的代表性项目,采用净现值方法和肯定当量法对其进行实证对比分析,测度风险因素对项目价值及其投资决策的影响,从而助力红树林碳汇的高质量发展。结果表明:(1)红树林碳汇项目的开发存在一定的风险,各阶段风险按照影响由高到低,依次为核查备案阶段、决策阶段、施工阶段、运营维护阶段和设计阶段,核查备案阶段的技术风险、决策阶段的政策风险、施工阶段的市场风险、运营维护阶段的市场风险和设计阶段的人类行为风险是各阶段中影响较大的风险种类;(2)风险的发生会使红树林碳汇项目的价值降低,相比传统净现值法,肯定当量法更符合红树林碳汇项目的开发和运行情况。

大型工程项目风险管理与应对策略

为保障大型工程项目建设的安全性,本文研究了大型工程项目风险管理与应对策略。为此,本文以风险管理流程体系为核心构建大型工程项目风险管理体系架构,分析大型工程项目开展过程中存在的各种风险因素;以风险因素分析结果为大型工程项目风险评价指标,采用模糊层次分析法对大型工程项目风险进行评价;基于风险评价结果,从优化全面风险管理环境和强化全方位的全面风险管理理念两方面提出风险应对策略,结合风险监控形成一个全面、动态、完善、循环的风险管理流程。实验结果显示:通过该研究能够显著降低大型工程项目风险,保障大型工程项目建设安全性。

水利水电EPC项目业主发包前风险评价

基于对水利水电EPC项目业主发包前风险评价的相关文献分析,结合专家咨询和对水利水电EPC项目的调查研究,确立了项目成果风险、咨询成果风险、监管成果风险和业主自身情况风险4个影响水利水电EPC项目业主发包前风险评价的决定因素,构建了水利水电EPC项目业主发包前风险评价指标体系,采用熵权法确定了各个风险指标的权重。最后,采用云模型方法,对某水利水电EPC项目业主发包前风险进行了综合评价,合理地确定了该水利水电EPC项目业主发包前的风险水平。

基于改进的G2-AEW-UMT模型的水工隧洞施工安全风险评价及障碍因子诊断

为降低滇中引水工程隧洞施工安全风险,预防安全事故的发生,对风险因子须提前预判。考虑隧洞施工孕险环境和水文、气象、工程地质等因素,结合规范和工程实际,遴选出8个一级指标和19个二级指标构建水工隧洞施工安全风险评价指标体系。采用改进G2、反熵权法(AEW)计算指标主客观权重,通过未确知测度理论(UMT)并引入障碍因子诊断,建立改进的G2-AEW-UMT水工隧洞施工安全风险评价模型。以某工程7^(#)隧洞为例进行模型验证,结果表明:隧洞斜井段、进口段和出口段障碍度最高的是气候条件,障碍度分别为27.79%,32.97%,29.75%;上游段主要障碍因子为地质条件,障碍度为28.93%;下游段主要障碍因子为水文条件,障碍度为22.96%;综合诊断表明影响7^(#)隧洞施工安全的主要障碍因子为气候、水文和环境条件,其障碍度均值之和达到49.55%,风险范围程度为62.5%,综合评价该水工隧洞施工安全风险等级为Ⅱ级,属于中风险,对比模糊综合评价结果与前人的研究,该模型评价结果符合工程实际,验证了模型的可行性。将未确知测度理论结合障碍因子诊断模型应用于水工隧洞施工安全风险评价的适用性好、计算精度高,可为滇中引水工程水工隧洞施工安全风险评价与诊断提供新思路。

基于区块链的电网工程数据差异化风险评估

电网工程地理位置复杂、跨越距离大、周期长,受外界环境、市场及人为等因素影响,数据变化频繁,电网工程造价管控困难。基于区块链技术构建电网工程数据链结构,可实现数据完整性、过程监督、事后追溯等管理。建立电网工程数据的概率分析模型,研究了不同随机因素对工程数据变化影响的灵敏度计算模型。基于改进差分进化算法可计算电网工程最优风险水平,提出基于区块链的电网工程造价数据的差异化风险管理流程。工程实例表明,本文方法可提高电网工程造价数据可信度,主动应对造价变化风险,实现对不同电网工程数据的差异化管理。

基于决策者风险偏好的模糊鲁棒性项目调度优化

不确定条件下模糊鲁棒性项目调度计划的生成受决策者风险偏好影响。本文研究模糊活动工期下考虑决策者风险偏好的鲁棒性项目调度优化问题,目标是合理安排活动开始时间,生成特定风险偏好下鲁棒性最大的进度计划。首先界定问题,构建优化模型;随后针对问题NP-hard属性和模型特点设计交替禁忌搜索启发式算法,求解得到不同风险偏好下满意的进度计划;最后用实例验证说明,并分析关键参数影响。结论如下:决策者风险偏好由规避转乐观时,项目冲突区间总和增多;截止日期、资源可用量较紧张时,风险偏好变化对冲突区间总和变化影响更大;风险偏好乐观时,截止日期变化对冲突区间总和变化影响更大。研究成果可为不同风险偏好决策者在不具历史数据的高不确定环境中制定合理前摄性计划提供决策支持。

中国大型灌区工程风险分析与安全评价研究

中国大型灌区输水线路长,建筑物数量庞大且种类繁多,部分骨干工程老化失修严重,一些灌区往往处于带病或超期服役状态,安全状况不容乐观。在介绍中国大型灌区安全现状的基础上,重点论述了大型灌区工程风险源识别、安全评价、加固改造等方面的研究现状,并对大型灌区工程安全管理模式的发展趋势和若干关键问题进行了归纳总结,认为今后应在灌区风险识别和控制技术、服役条件下建筑物混凝土损伤演化、风险管控机制及数字化和智慧化管理等方面进行深入研究,确保大型灌区工程安全长效运行。

基于变权公路路基工程施工风险模糊综合评价

路基工程作为公路工程的一个重要分项工程,其施工风险在公路工程中占有很大的比例。为防范事故发生,对路基工程施工风险客观评价具有重要意义。首先,通过路基工程施工特点和风险来源构建了路基工程施工风险评价指标体系和评判标准。其次,针对常权不能全面反映极差因素信息,引入变权模糊综合评价法,构建路基工程施工风险变权模糊综合评价模型。最后,引入工程实例。结果表明:路基工程施工风险评价中采用变权模糊综合评价能够将避免“极端”指标被淹没现象,有效体现评价指标的均衡性,评价结果更具离散性,客观反映路基工程施工风险。