Relationship Between Individuals’Epidemic Risk Perception Within Living Space and Subjective Well-Being:Empirical Evidence from China after the First Wave of COVID-19

It is common to observe the epidemic risk perception(ERP)and a decline in subjective well-being(SWB)in the context of public health events,such as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19).However,there have been few studies exploring the impact of individuals’ERP within living space on their SWB,especially from a geographical and daily activity perspective after the resumption of work and other activities following a wave of the pandemic.In this paper,we conducted a study with 789 participants in urban China,measuring their ERP within living space and examining its influence on their SWB using path analysis.The results indicated that individuals’ERP within their living space had a significant negative effect on their SWB.The density of certain types of facilities within their living space,such as bus stops,subway stations,restaurants,fast food shops,convenience shops,hospitals,and public toilets,had a significantly negative impact on their SWB,mediated by their ERP within living space.Additionally,participation in out-of-home work and other activities not only increased individuals’ERP within living space,but also strengthened its negative effect on their SWB.

Validation of nutritional risk index method against patientgenerated subjective global assessment in screening malnutrition in colorectal cancer patients

Objective：To validate malnutrition screening tool of nutrition risk index （NRI） against patent-generated subjective global assessment （PG-SGA） as a gold standard tool in colorectal cancer patients before radiotherapy.Methods：Nutritional status of 52 volunteer colorectal cancer patients with a mean age of 54.1±16.8 years who referred to radiotherapy center were assessed by PG-SGA （gold standard method） and NRI.Serum albumin levels of patients were determined by colorimetric method.A contingency table was used to determine the sensitivity,specificity,and predictive value of the NRI in screening patients at risk of malnutrition,in comparison with the PG-SGA in patients before radiotherapy.Results：The findings of PG-SGA and NRI showed that 52％ and 45％ of patients in our study were moderately or severely malnourished respectively.The NRI had a sensitivity of 66％ and a specificity of 60％ against PG-SGA.The positive predictive value was 64％ and the negative predicative value was 62％.The agreement between NRI and PG-SGA was statistically insignificant （kappa =0.267; P＞0.05）.Conclusions：The findings of present study showed that the prevalence of malnutrition was high in patients with colorectal cancer.Moreover,NRI method had low sensitivity and specificity in assessing nutritional status of patients with cancer.It seems that the combination of anthropometric,laboratory parameters and a subjective scoring system may be helpful tools in screening of malnutrition in cancer patients.

Prospective study evaluating the value of subjective global assessment and national risk score 2002 for post-operative risk detection in living related donor liver transplant recipients

Background: Chronic liver disease may be associated with protein energy malnutrition. Those malnourished patients undergoing liver transplantation suffer great morbidities and even mortalities. Estimating the degree of malnutrition in patients with end stage liver disease is a difficult job, Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) and Nutritional Risk Score-2002 (NRS-2002) are among many tools that can give an overview for the nutritional status of the patients. Aim: To detect the efficacy and the predictive validity of SGA and NRS 2002 for post-operative risk detection for liver transplant patients. Patients & Methods: 30 recipients of end stage liver disease had undergone a nutritional assessment by SGA score & NRS-2002 score, to be compared with the parameters of outcome of post-operative liver transplantation (ALT, AST, INR, Bilirubin, time spent in ICU, hospital infective episodes & number of antibiotic courses). Results: Patients declared as malnourished by SGA and NRS-2002 had higher post operative ALT & AST value, more prolonged INR, spent more time at ICU and hospital, suffered from more infective episodes and had more antibiotic courses in a significant statistical manner. Conclusion: SGA and NRS-2002 could be useful, simple and dependable tools to be used for risk detection of post-operative morbidities after liver transplantation.

Subject Area Risk Assessment of Four Hungarian Universities with a View to the QS University Rankings by Subject

Purpose:The aim of our paper is to investigate the role of a mentor leading a research team in the overall scientific performance of an academic institution and the possible risks of their departure with a special attention to their publication output.Design/methodology/approach:By using SciVal subject area data,we composed a formula describing the level of vulnerability of any given university in the case of losing any of its leading mentors,identifying other risk factors by dividing their careers into separate stages.Findings:It turns out that the higher field-weighed citation impact is,the better position universities reach in the rankings by subject and the vulnerability of institutions highly depends on the mentors,especially in view of their contribution to the topic clusters.Research limitations:The analysis covers the publication output of leading researchers working at four Hungarian universities,the scope of the analysis is worth being extended.Practical implications:Our analysis has the potential to give an applicable systemic approach as well as a data collection scheme to university managements so as to formulate an inclusive and comprehensive research strategy involving the introduction of a reward system aimed at publications and further encouraging national and international research cooperation.Originality/value:The methodology and the principles of risk assessment laid down in our paper are not restricted to measuring the vulnerability level of a limited group of academic institutions,they can be appropriately used for investigating the role of mentors or leading researchers at every university across the globe.

Risk Management Strategy for Agricultural Operation Subjects in Simple Scale Expansion Mode

Agricultural operation subject is a main body of the market economy. At present,the simple scale expansion mode is a major mode of agricultural operation in China. According to some hypothesis,scale expansion will inevitably bring high income,but such hypothesis has serious defects. The operation mechanism of the simple scale expansion mode includes farmer operation mechanism,professional farmer operation mechanism,and " company + farmers" operation mechanism. In the production and operation,they will be faced with different natural risks,technical risks,market risks and policy risks. Besides,their risk control ability is also varied. Therefore,it is required to take different agricultural risk management strategies. The " company + farmers" production and operation subjects have the highest ability of risk management. Other subjects should learn their experience.

Optimal Decision-Making of Trans-Provincial Electricity Market Subjects with Risks under Renewable Portfolio Standards

The randomness and uncertainty of renewable energy generation are expected to significantly change the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects.Therefore,it is beneficial to optimize the interests of each of these subjects,considering the unpredictable risks of renewable energy under the renewable portfolio standards(RPS)and researching their effects on the optimal decision-making of transprovincial electricity market multi-subjects.First,we develop a trans-provincial trading market mechanism for renewable energy and clarify the electricity supply and demand relation and the green certificates supply and demand relation of trans-provincial electricitymarketmulti-subjects.Then,under the RPS,we construct a multi-subject game model of the power supply chain that recognizes the risks,and adopt the reverse induction method to discuss the optimum risk-taking judgment of each subject in the trans-provincial electricity market.Finally,we useMATLAB to verify the viability and efficacy of the proposed gamemodel,and obtain a certain reference value for the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects.In summary,we consider the uncertainty risks of renewable energy under RPS,study the effects of the green certificate price and risk aversion coefficient in the RPS mechanism on the optimal decisionmaking of trans-provincial electricity market subjects,and obtain the changing trends of two different power products and those of different electricity market subjects under the influence of the green certificate price and risk aversion coefficient,which have a certain reference value for studying the factors affecting the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects.

EFFECT OF ADDED DIETARY CALCIUM ON ESOPHAGEAL EPITHELIAL-CELL PROLIFERATION IN SUBJECTS AT HIGH RISK FOR ESOPHAGEAL CANCER: A DOUBLE-BLIND INTER-VENTION STUDY

A randomized double-blind intervention trial was carried determine whether oral calcium supplementation could lower the proliferation of epithelial cells of the esophagus. 41 subjects identified with precancerous lesions by histopathology were randomized to receive oral supplementation of their conventional diets with 0.6 g of calcium as calcium carbonate or placebo. Both at the entry to the study and at the end of the treatment, seven months later, the subjects were examined, with an emphasis on the frequency and distribution of proliferating epithelial cells of the esophagus. Patterns of cell proliferation was defined by dividing the esophageal epithelium into cell columns oriented perpendicularly to the basal cell layer and by comparing the numbers and fractions of tritiated thymidine-labeled epithelial cells in the various cell columns and cell compartments.Before dietary supplementation with calcium, the profile of proliferating epithelial cells in the esophageal compartments in calcium group is similar to that in the placebo group, which is comparable to that previously observed in subjects with high risk for esophageal cancer. Seven months after supplementation having been started, in calcium group, proliferation was significantly reduced and the profile of the esophageal columns approached to that previously observed in subjects at low risk for esophageal cancer, however, in the placebo group, the proliferation and profile maintain at the same level as that before supplementation. Our findings indicate that oral calcium supplementation induces a more quiescent equilibrium in epithelial-cell proliferation in the esophageal mucosa of the subjects at high-risk for esophageal cancer, similar to that observed in subjects at low risk.

主观体力疲劳在老年患者肌力与跌倒风险之间的中介效应分析

目的探究主观体力疲劳在老年患者肌力与跌倒风险之间的中介效应。方法以2019年1月至2022年12月在首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院老年医学科住院的老年患者为研究对象,选取入院前1年有跌倒史的167例患者为病例组,同时选取入院前1年无跌倒史的167例患者为对照组。比较分析两组患者的临床特征。分析主观体力疲劳、肌力与老年患者跌倒风险的相关性。分析老年患者跌倒风险的独立影响因素。分析主观体力疲劳在老年患者肌力与跌倒风险之间的中介效应。结果病例组患者的体重指数、肌力低于或小于对照组,年龄、主观体力疲劳比例大于或高于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。Pearson相关性分析结果显示,老年患者的主观体力疲劳与肌力呈显著负相关(r=-0.243,P<0.05),与跌倒风险呈显著正相关(r=0.160,P<0.05);老年患者的肌力与跌倒风险呈显著负相关(r=-0.240,P<0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,体重指数、肌力是老年患者跌倒风险的独立保护因素(P<0.05),主观体力疲劳是老年患者跌倒风险的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。Model 4中介模型分析结果显示,肌力对跌倒风险的直接预测作用显著(β=0.132,t=4.311,P=0.000),当加入中介变量后,肌力对跌倒风险的直接预测作用仍然显著(β=0.121,t=2.103,P=0.000),肌力对主观体力疲劳的预测作用显著(β=0.219,t=3.151,P=0.000),主观体力疲劳对跌倒风险的预测作用显著(β=0.052,t=3.912,P=0.000)。Bootstrap检验模型分析结果显示,肌力对跌倒风险的直接效应值为0.641(95%CI 0.615~0.853),主观体力疲劳对跌倒风险的中介效应值为0.326(95%CI 0.032~0.221),95%CI不包含0,表明中介效应成立,且中介效应值占总效应的33.72%。结论主观体力疲劳是老年患者肌力与跌倒风险之间的中介变量,临床应重视老年患者主观体力疲劳的评估与干预,从而有助于降低老年患者的跌倒风险。

全球人工智能风险治理的趋势与特征——基于25份政策文件的文本量化分析

人工智能已经成为新一轮科技革命和产业变革的重要驱动力量。选取2016年以来全球各国或组织出台的25份人工智能风险治理政策展开文本量化研究,构建“风险议题—治理主体—政策工具”三维分析框架,分析全球人工智能风险治理政策的主要内容、基本特征和发展趋势后发现,全球人工智能风险治理政策侧重于解决社会风险问题,对技术风险和法治风险的关注仍待强化;治理主体多样化,但参与度不均衡;以强制型政策工具为主,引导型、市场型政策工具为辅,自愿型政策工具运用偏少。因此,应优化政策工具整体布局,形成多元主体参与协调机制,健全人工智能安全等级和风险预估机制。

半潜式起重拆解平台建造风险评估

提出了一项包涵多数基本风险参数的整体风险评估模型,用于全面评估半潜式起重拆解平台的风险值.所应用的模型是三角模糊数、区间值毕达哥拉斯模糊(IVPFS)、优劣解距离法(TOPSIS)和灰色关联分析(GRA)的集成.将开发的IVPFS-TOPSIS-GRA应用到半潜式起重拆解平台建造风险评估的项目中:首先,应用三角模糊数获得了专家的重要性权重;其次,为避免决策者的主观性太强,提供了一种结合主观权重和基于相似度的客观权重的加权方法;再次,在区间值毕达哥拉斯模糊环境下结合TOPSIS-GRA获得已识别安全风险的最终排名.此外,进行了敏感性研究,验证所提出方法的鲁棒性和稳定性.通过对建造生产管理风险因素辨识的数据分析,得到建造生产管理风险的重点风险隐患区域:交叉作业生产管理区.结果表明,所提出的模型可以帮助专家在用模糊性和主观性语言处理的模糊环境中进行风险评估,克服了常见定量估计和定性估计的局限性.

3种营养筛查工具在骨与软组织肿瘤患者营养不良风险评估中的临床价值

目的:调查骨与软组织肿瘤患者营养不良风险的发生情况,探索营养风险筛查2002(NRS2002)、通用筛查工具(MUST)、患者主观整体评估简表(PG-SGASF)等3种营养筛查工具在骨与软组织肿瘤患者营养不良风险评估中的临床价值。方法:对山西省肿瘤医院骨与软组织科2023年8月—2024年5月的所有入院成年患者进行问卷调查,调查内容包括:患者一般情况(年龄、性别、身高、体重);患者体重在近2周、1个月、2个月、3个月、6个月的变化情况;饮食改变情况以及影响饮食的原因等。整理完成NRS2002、MUST、PG-SGASF得分。结合患者临床资料疾病诊断、治疗情况进行统计分析。率的比较采用卡方检验,定量资料两组比较采用Mann-Whitney检验,多组比较采用Kruskal-WallisH检验,绘制韦恩图、ROC曲线。结果:合格问卷633份,男性327例、女性306例,平均年龄(54.41±14.35)岁。骨与软组织肿瘤患者营养不良风险在14%~22%之间,恶性肿瘤患者营养不良风险发生率更高。3种筛查结果绘制韦恩图显示,NRS2002与MUST一致性更高。以NRS2002为基础绘制ROC曲线(曲线下面积:MUST:0.9287,PG-SGASF:0.596)。结论:骨与软组织肿瘤患者营养不良风险发生率较其他类型肿瘤患者偏低,但恶性度越高营养不良风险越大。NRS2002有一定的漏诊情况,MUST简易且全面,PG-SGASF更适合用于评估。

水电工程定量综合风险评价方法优化研究及应用

针对目前水电工程定量综合风险评价方法存在的主观性缺陷问题,建立了定量综合风险评价方法计算的模型,通过构建模糊关系矩阵和风险互判矩阵,从而定量求得综合风险值及等级,结合建立的综合风险等级与安全评价结论之间的判定准则,得到工程整体风险等级及评价结论。以新疆若羌抽水蓄能电站工程安全预评价为例,对定量综合风险评价方法进行了验证,结果表明,评价结论符合工程实际,水电工程定量综合风险评价优化方法可应用于工程安全预评价和安全验收评价。

我国环境责任保险风险社会化分配机制的构建与完善——以风险社会化分配为视角

在环境风险问题日益严峻的形势下,环境责任保险制度不仅是环境风险管理与防控的重要手段之一,而且具有风险社会化分配的重要功能,即通过合理的责任主体风险分配,让原先过度集中在企业个体的风险责任可以分散给保险公司、社会等主体共同承担,以促进各责任主体之间的利益平衡与协调。然而,目前我国环境风险责任分配机制中存在企业投保积极性缺乏、保险人承担风险压力过大及承保能力欠佳、政府的监督管理机制有待加强等问题。在借鉴国外风险分配与利益协调机制有益经验的基础上,提出完善环境责任保险风险分配机制的建议与对策:完善相关法律法规,增强环境责任保险的强制性,明确投保企业的风险责任;扩大承保范围,创新保险险种,促进承保风险再分散,增强保险公司的风险承担能力;加强风险评估与监管,建立并完善环境补偿基金机制,充分发挥政府风险分配的主导作用。

生成式人工智能作为叙事主体的社会风险及治理

生成式人工智能通过语言输出建构的叙事主体有不断超越现实主体的可能性,这将会挑战现实社会作为真实存在的基础,因此需要分析产生这些风险的根源。在独立存在论和平行存在论两种传统叙事主体存在观基础上,指出人工智能作为叙事主体是可能的,并表现出生成性、交织性以及在世性等超越性特征。生成式人工智能作为叙事主体的不同存在特征,也带来不同层面的社会风险。在个体层主要有认知与情感能力削减、自我身份认同困难和自我存在意义消解等风险;在组织层主要有冲击主体间关系、影响组织的公共决策和加速后真相时代到来等风险;在社会层主要有大量职业消失、劳动方式改变和社会安全风险加大等风险。面对生成式人工智能作为叙事主体所带来的风险,可以通过建立现实主体语言池、划定叙事主体语料界限和培养自我反思实践能力作为应对方案。

主观认知下降的相关因素及其与Alzheimer’s病进展的关系

主观认知下降(SCD)指个体持续自我感知认知功能下降,但相关神经心理检测均在正常范围,可能是Alzheimer’s病(AD)疾病谱中最早可被发现的临床前阶段。SCD的影响因素众多,如何早期识别AD进展型SCD以便进行超早期干预是目前研究的重点。本文旨在对SCD的相关概念、临床特征、相关影响因素及其与AD进展的关系进行总结分析,从而为后续的相关研究提供参考。

土地二级市场的风险特征、传导路径与监管策略——基于2045份裁判文书的实证分析

研究目的:探索土地二级市场的风险特征及传导路径并提出监管策略,为要素市场化改革背景下的用地市场监管提供思路。研究方法:文本分析法,统计分析法,案例分析法,系统分析法。研究结果:(1)土地二级市场存在交易规则、主体行为、主体诚信、主体能力、交易标的、合约效力、市场环境7大类风险以及土地违法行为风险等17个风险因素。(2)从交易类型看,土地转让、出租、抵押三种交易类型的风险数量、风险爆发阶段以及风险类型差异显著;从交易过程看,土地二级市场风险贯穿于事前、事中、事后全过程,集中爆发于交易执行阶段;从市场主体看,交易主体所导致的风险占据主导地位,且贯穿交易全过程;从空间分布看,西部地区高风险事件类型多于东、中部地区。(3)基于结构—过程—主体构建的土地二级市场风险传导理论框架分析表明,主体的能力、诚信、行为等能动性要素会影响土地二级市场结构性要素的构建,制度、市场等结构性要素会作用于主体行动,土地二级市场风险从潜伏、累积到爆发受主体与结构要素的共同作用。研究结论:以“有为政府”联袂“有效市场”为导向,构建基于交易全过程和涵盖制度环境、监管主体、监管手段等监管要素的土地二级市场监管体系,探索完善土地二级市场制度体系、构建土地二级市场全过程动态监管体系、完善土地二级市场运行机制、加强市场主体约束机制等监管策略。

基于XGBoost和组合权重方法的桂林市野火灾害风险性评估

野火灾害风险性评估工作可以定量评估野火灾害对社会经济和自然生态造成损失的风险。以桂林市为研究区,以2017—2021年的历史野火数据为基础。首先,基于XGBoost算法结合所选取的15项评价因子进行野火易发性分析。其次,对选取的8项灾害易损性因子利用主客观组合权重法对野火易损性进行评估。最后,基于所构建的易发和易损性评估模型,开展桂林市野火灾害风险性评估分析。结果表明:(1)野火易发性模型AUC为0.993,预测准确率为0.9698,表明该易发性预测模型拥有优秀的预测性能,气温、高程、坡度和风速因子是影响野火灾害发生的最重要因素;(2)野火灾害易损性评估结果与客观事实相符合,具有良好的可信度;(3)桂林市野火灾害风险性评价结果与桂林市的野火灾害的空间发生概率和社会承灾能力吻合程度高,验证了所提模型的可行性和有效性,为桂林市灾害管理部门的防灾减灾提供了决策支持。

从单一管制到复合风控:中国儿童数字游戏风险治理的历史演进与变迁逻辑

儿童数字游戏风险治理已成为儿童研究的重点领域与全球性数字议题。梳理并总结我国儿童数字游戏风险治理的经验与特征,有利于完善和创新儿童数字游戏风险治理方案。文章对1990—2023年国家层面出台的179份政策文本进行分析,试图呈现我国儿童数字游戏风险治理的历史进程与演进脉络。研究发现:我国儿童数字游戏风险的治理趋势是从单一场所管理走向复合性数字风险管理;从单一部门监管走向多元主体的协同共治;从单一政策工具走向多种政策工具的策略组合;从以数字安全为目标走向以数字保护与数字参与的适度平衡为目标。

NRS-2002与PG-SGA在中晚期肿瘤患者营养筛查及评估中的应用

目的 研究欧洲营养风险筛查工具(NRS-2002)与主观整体评估量表(PG-SGA)在中晚期肿瘤患者营养筛查及评估中的应用效果。方法 回顾性分析2020年1月至2022年1月长安医院收治的116例中晚期肿瘤患者的临床资料,根据其在入院后接受的营养状况筛查和评估结果的不同分为营养正常组72例和营养不良组44例。比较两组患者的NRS-2002与PG-SGA评分情况、NRS-2002与PG-SGA不同分组患者的营养指标水平、应用NRS-2002与PG-SGA评分分组后两组患者近期的疗效及远期生存情况;采用Spearman秩相关分析法分析NRS-2002与PG-SGA评分与中晚期肿瘤患者营养指标的相关性。结果 营养正常组患者的NRS-2002与PG-SGA评分分别为(2.07±0.79)分、(3.52±1.01)分,明显低于营养不良组的(4.69±0.74)分、(5.22±1.14)分,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);NRS-2002评分中营养正常组患者的基础代谢、总水分、体质量指数、腰臀比、血红蛋白、白蛋白、前白蛋白、红细胞计数、血糖等营养指标水平明显高于营养不良组,PG-SGA评分中营养正常组的基础代谢、总水分、体质量指数、腰臀比、血红蛋白、白蛋白、前白蛋白、红细胞计数、血糖等营养指标水平也明显高于营养不良组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);经Spearman秩相关分析法分析结果显示,NRS-2002和PG-SGA评分均与患者体质量指数、红细胞计数、血红蛋白、白蛋白、前白蛋白呈负相关(P<0.05);营养正常组患者的近期总有效率为94.44%,明显高于营养不良组的70.45%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);营养正常组患者的中位生存时间为(12.86±2.27)个月,明显长于营养不良组的(8.26±1.41)个月,生存率为93.06%,明显高于营养不良组的65.91%,而局部复发和远处转移率分别为16.67%、6.94%,明显低于营养不良组患者的34.09%、34.09%,差异均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论 NRS-2002与PG-SGA均是筛查和评估中晚期肿瘤患者营养状态的有效方法,能及时发现患者的营养风险,以便及时对患者营养不良状况进行纠正,值得临床推广应用。

知识共生产框架下科技伦理治理主体的基础性功能与其对应的实现方式

发达的经济不仅为科技创新带来了肥沃的土壤,同时也带来了科技伦理方面的隐患。在面对越来越严峻的科技伦理治理挑战时,政府、专家和公众等主体如何达成合作来共同打开科技伦理治理的“黑箱”,是学界关注的重点。选择科技伦理治理中政府、专家和公众这3类具有代表性的重要主体,基于科技伦理治理的内容,对“知识共生产”的概念进行总结,在此基础上,进一步建构科技伦理治理主体的知识共生产研究框架,分析科技伦理治理主体的基础性功能与其对应的实现方式。研究认为,政府(治理知识型生产者)、专家(专业知识型生产者)和公众(助力知识型生产者)共同参与到科技伦理风险问题的治理过程,分别具有政策架构支持、知识储备运用和外在助力推动的基础性功能,并分别通过政策支持实现方式与宏观架构治理方式、知识储备作用方式与知识实践运用方式、现实动因推动方式与外在助力参与方式来发挥政府知识的治理作用、专家知识的专业作用和公众知识的辅助作用,从而实现知识共生产,进而推动科技伦理风险问题的有效解决。进一步提出,未来相关研究可以从框架、视角和理念三方面深入展开。