Prediction of petroleum exploration risk and subterranean spatial distribution of hydrocarbon accumulations

Investigation of spatial distribution of oil and gas resource and accurate prediction of the geographic location of its undiscovered resource is significant for reducing exploration risk and improving exploration benefit.A new method for predicting spatial distribution of oil resource is discussed in this paper.It consists of prediction of risk probability in petroleum exploration and simulation of hydrocarbon abundance. Exploration risk probability is predicted by multivariate statistics,fuzzy mathematics and information processing techniques.A spatial attribute database for sample wells was set up and the Mahalanobis distance and Fuzzy value of given samples were obtained.Then,the Bayesian formula was used to calculate the hydrocarbon-bearing probability at the area of exploration wells.Finally,a hydrocarbon probability template is formed and used to forecast the probability of the unknown area. The hydrocarbon abundance is simulated based on Fourier integrals,frequency spectrum synthesis and fractal theory.Firstly,the fast Fourier transformation（FFT） is used to transform the known hydrocarbon abundance from the spatial domain to the frequency domain,then,frequency spectrum synthesis is used to produce the fractal frequency spectrum,and FFT is applied to get the phase information of hydrocarbon-bearing probability.Finally,the frequency spectrum simulation is used to calculate the renewed hydrocarbon abundance in the play. This method is used to predict the abundance and possible locations of the undiscovered petroleum accumulations in the Nanpu Sag of the Bohai Bay Basin,China.The prediction results for the well-explored onshore area of the northern Nanpu Sag agree well with the actual situations.For the less-explored offshore areas in the southern Nanpu Sag,the prediction results suggest high hydrocarbon abundance in Nanpu-1 and Nanpu-2,providing a useful guiding for future exploration.

Elaborate Forecast about Fire Risk Grade in Forest and Grassland of Inner Mongolia Based on Intelligent Grid

Based on the fire and meteorological data of forest and grassland in Inner Mongolia in recent 30 years,a forest and grassland fire risk grade forecast model is established,and a refined forest and grassland fire risk level forecast system based on smart grid is developed. The results show that predictors are determined about forest and grassland fire risk grade,such as precipitation,minimum relative humidity,maximum temperature,maximum wind speed,number of sunny or rainy days,and forest and grassland combustible stock. According to fire risk division conclusion,forest and grassland areas are divided into 5 forecast areas. By using discriminant analysis and weighted factor overlay method,an elaborate fire risk grade forecast model is established in different forecast areas of Inner Mongolia forest and grassland. By using smart grid forecast field data,an elaborate fire risk grade forecasting system is established for making fire risk grade forecast during 24,48 and 72 h.

Rise of Cross-border E-commerce Exports in China

China＇s cross-border e-commerce industry has demonstrated stable and rapid development thanks to the implementation of appropriate policy support and the progressive establishment of e-commerce platforms. The industry＇s prosperity suggests unique advantages of cross-border e-commerce, which are a result of promoting industrial transformation and accelerating economic restructuring. Due to asymmetric information and insufficient data, little research has been conducted on the current status and the trends of the industry as well as the magnitude of risk in cross-border e-commerce. Using the cross-border e-commerce hosting service database of BizArk, the present study has constructed an index for China ＂s export e-commerce prosperity and magnitude of risk which reveals that the industry： （i） generally presents a tendency of solid growth; （ii） has had a relatively stable situation for logistics facilitation but a drastic fluctuation in customs facilitation; （iii） has gradually shifted to competing for cheaper and more efficient marketing techniques as well as channels; and （iv） has experienced a remarkable amelioration of risk magnitude.