Burden of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors on Cerebrovascular Events in a Southern Italian Population

Background: Stroke is the second leading cause of death in the world and the third due to disability. However, there are few data available that identify the risk factors associated with it and their weight in different populations (population risk). Aim: Contribute to the knowledge of burden risk factors in stroke in a large cohort of Southern Italy. Methods: The data refer to a randomized Campania cohort of 1200 subjects (35 - 74 years) enrolled in 2008-09. Ten years later (2018-19) they were re-evaluated. We analyzed data from 32 patients who reported a cerebrovascular event (stroke or TIA) with the event-free group of subjects (804 subjects: 378 men and 426 women). We evaluated: absolute risk, Odds Ratio (OR), Additional Risk (AR), Risk Attributable to the Population (PAR) and, finally, the Population Attributable risk Fraction (FAP). Results: In the comparison between the two groups (patients with events and patients without events) the risk factors with statistically significant differences were: age, Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP), BMI, cholesterol, triglycerides, glycemia and hyperinsulinemia. The ORs with the greatest impact were: blood glucose (5.1), BMI (3.3) and BPS (2.9). Linear regression analysis identified Glycemia and BMI as the only independent variables. The FAPs with the greatest impact were SBP (47.4%) and BMI (42.6%). Discussion and Conclusions: Our data confirm that the high incidence of stroke in Campania is particularly related to the high prevalence of obesity and hypertension. In the single patient, however, the risk factors with the greatest impact are: glycaemia BMI an SBP.

Optimal Portfolio Selection of Wind Power Plants Using a Stochastic Risk-Averse Optimization Model, Considering the Wind Complementarity of the Sites and a Budget Constraint

This work focuses on the best financial resources allocation to define a wind power plant portfolio, considering a set of feasible sites. To accomplish the problem formulation and solution, the first step was to establish a long-term wind series reconstruction methodology for generating scenarios of wind energy, applying it to study five different locations of the Brazilian territory. Secondly, a risk-averse stochastic optimization model was implemented and used to define the optimal wind power plant selection that maximizes the portfolio financial results, considering an investment budget constraint. In a sequence, a case study was developed to illustrate a practical situation of applying the methodology to the portfolio selection problem, considering five wind power plants options. The case study was supported by the proposed optimization model, using the scenarios of generation created by the reconstruction methodology. The obtained results show the model performance in terms of defining the best financial resources allocation considering the effect of the complementarity between sites, making it feasible to select the optimal set of wind power plants, characterizing a wind plant optimal portfolio that takes into account the budget constraint. The adopted methodology makes it possible to realize that the diversification of the portfolio depends on the investor risk aversion. Although applied to the Brazilian case, this model can be customized to solve a similar problem worldwide.

Modeling Cyber Loss Severity Using a Spliced Regression Distribution with Mixture Components

Cyber losses in terms of number of records breached under cyber incidents commonly feature a significant portion of zeros, specific characteristics of mid-range losses and large losses, which make it hard to model the whole range of the losses using a standard loss distribution. We tackle this modeling problem by proposing a three-component spliced regression model that can simultaneously model zeros, moderate and large losses and consider heterogeneous effects in mixture components. To apply our proposed model to Privacy Right Clearinghouse (PRC) data breach chronology, we segment geographical groups using unsupervised cluster analysis, and utilize a covariate-dependent probability to model zero losses, finite mixture distributions for moderate body and an extreme value distribution for large losses capturing the heavy-tailed nature of the loss data. Parameters and coefficients are estimated using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Combining with our frequency model (generalized linear mixed model) for data breaches, aggregate loss distributions are investigated and applications on cyber insurance pricing and risk management are discussed.

金融法视阈下的行政执法和解制度探析

《中华人民共和国金融稳定法(草案)》规定了行政执法当事人承诺制度,正在为金融领域行政执法和解制度的构建提供法律依据。与此同时,虽然行政和解暂未形成理论共识,但金融法视阈下行政执法和解的实践已然先行于理论。针对金融风险处置和证券期货领域中的金融纠纷,行政机关在符合依法行政的要求下通过行使自由裁量权,借助协商民主、公众参与等私法化手段采取的行政执法和解措施,可有效化解纠纷且实现各方获益的经济及社会效果。通过对金融领域行政执法和解措施的实践检视,提出以各方均可获益作为启动行政执法和解制度的前提,通过举证责任的倾斜、“自认”的可适用性与行刑衔接的合规机制相结合,将有助于构建更加符合实践理性的行政执法和解制度。

结构性资产负债表衰退及其宏观经济效应与政策协整

疫后恢复政策组合拳,有力承托了中国宏观经济运行的积极因素,但当前经济下行压力依然突出,部分领域发展呈现明显波动,亟须有能够“对症下药”的理论解释和宏观政策应对。构建NK-DSGE模型,探讨结构性资产负债表衰退的宏观经济效应以及相应政策协整问题。研究结果展示,典型事实蕴含中国不存在总体资产负债表衰退,但存在结构性资产负债表衰退的证据。在宏观层面,结构性资产负债表衰退冲击会导致宏观经济较长时期下滑,乃至引发债务-通缩风险,而在微观层面,减轻资产负债表衰退企业的债务厌恶和改善正常经营企业的融资约束有助于减弱上述影响。调节效应分析表明,结构性资产负债表衰退会抑制技术进步与需求扩张对产出的促进作用,但在技术进步情形下,上述抑制作用有限。为减小福利损失,财政政策应盯住衰退类企业债务,货币政策应锚定高融资约束企业债务,并提高政策反应力度,宏观审慎政策应提高对资产价格的敏感度。上述结论为理解微观层面债务厌恶所产生的宏观合力以及设计实施相应政策搭配提供参考。

基于多层级条件风险价值的高渗透可再生能源电力系统低碳运行联合优化

在双碳目标下,风电渗透率增加给新型电力系统的安稳运行带来挑战,而条件风险价值法(Conditional Value-at-Risk,CVaR)可对风电的随机风险进行分类量化评估,以用于系统调度运行。根据CVaR提出了改进的多层级条件风险价值法(Multi-layer Conditional Value-at-Risk,MCVaR),并建立了基于MCVaR的高渗透可再生能源电力系统低碳运行联合优化模型。仿真算例结果表明,MCVaR相较于CVaR能够显著降低系统的弃风与切负荷量,同时系统的极端损失下降了49.45%。所提方法能够在满足系统可控风险约束的前提下,实现运行经济效益与低碳环保收益的综合最优化。

数字经济背景下企业社会责任信息披露、风险承担与创新投入

本文基于社会资本理论,以2007~2022年我国A股上市公司为样本,运用Heckman两阶段模型,探讨数字经济背景下,企业社会责任信息披露影响创新投入的内在机理,解释了企业风险承担能力和管理者风险承担意愿的中介作用,以及公司治理的调节效应,以拓展战略性慈善行为推动企业创新的相关研究。结果表明:社会责任信息披露促进创新投入;管理者风险承担意愿和企业风险承担水平均发挥中介作用;CEO二元性、董事会规模、管理层持股比和股权制衡度均对社会责任信息披露与创新投入的关系起促进作用。本文将社会责任信息披露的影响从伦理层面拓展到战略层面,为企业数字化战略、社会责任战略和创新战略的协同作用提供了重要启示。

基于矩不确定模糊集的分布鲁棒风险-回报优化模型研究

本文研究随机变量分布不确定下的风险-回报优化模型。针对传统的风险-回报三类典型问题和分布不确定性背景,提出了更一般性条件下的分布鲁棒风险-回报优化新模型;基于矩不确定集合和优化对偶理论,化简复杂的新优化模型为常规结构的非线性优化问题。理论上证明了分布鲁棒风险-回报三类优化模型效率前沿的等价性。数值实验验证了理论分析的有效性。

Identification and Cu Enrichment Capacity of TLSB_2-K, a Cu-tolerant Strain

[Objective] The Cu-tolerance and Cu enrichment capacity of TLSB2-K were investigated. [Method] The previously isolated TLSB2-K strain was identified though morphological observation, gram staining and 16S rDNA sequence alignment. In ad- dition, the effects of temperature, pH and osmotic pressure on the growth of strain were also investigated by using shaking culture. The Cu-tolerance and Cu enrich- ment capacity of TLSB2-K strain under Cu stress were also studied. [Result] The results showed TLSB2-K belongs to Bacillus spp., and its optimum growth conditions were as follows： temperature, 27 ~C; pH, 7.0; osmotic pressure, 1.1% NaCI. When the Cu concentration ranged from 100 mg/L to 500 mg/L, the strain grew well; when the Cu concentration ranged from 100 mg/L to 400 mg/L, the Cu content in bacteria was increased with the increase of Cu concentration; when the Cu con- centration was 400 mg/L and the incubation time was 30 h, the Cu content in bac- teria reached the peak （2 250 mg/kg）; the highest tolerant concentration was 700 mg/L. [Conclusion] TLSB2-K strain had relatively high Cu tolerance and Cu enrich- ment capacity. They had important theoretical research and engineering application values.

Research Progress and Identification Method of Apple Stress Resistance

In the research, changes of apple chemistry, and molecule, under stresses, are n terms of morphology, physiology, bio- illustrated and research and identifica- tion methods of apple resistance are explored involving drought-resistance, flood-re- sistance, salt-stress resistance, cold-hardiness and heat-resistance. In addition prospects of apple resistance research are proposed, as well.

ST段抬高型心肌梗死术后彩超左心房容积指数的检测及其与复发心房颤动的关系

目的探讨ST段抬高型心肌梗死(STEMI)经皮冠状动脉支架置入术后患者彩超下左心房容积指数(LAVI)检测的意义及其与复发心房颤动的关系。方法选取2019年5月至2021年5月萍乡市人民医院收治的82例经皮冠状动脉支架置入术治疗的STEMI患者作为研究对象,根据术后随访结果是否复发心房颤动分为未复发组(n=61)与复发组(n=21)。比较STEMI患者治疗前后左心房参数[左心房容积(LAV)、LAVI、左心室射血分数(LVEF)及左心房内径(LAD)],比较两组左心房参数,采用多元Logistic回归分析STEMI患者术后复发心房颤动的影响因素。结果治疗后,患者LAV、LAVI、LAD低于治疗前,而LVEF高于治疗前,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。复发组LAV、LAVI大于未复发组,LAD长于未复发组,LVEF低于未复发组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多元Logistic逐步回归分析结果显示,LAVI、LAV、LAD是心房颤动复发的危险因素(OR>1,P<0.05),而LVEF心房颤动复发的保护因素(OR<1,P<0.05)。结论经皮冠状动脉支架置入术可改善STEMI患者心肌结构,且术后心房颤动复发与左心房参数相关,临床可根据LAV、LAVI及LAD指标的监测,为疾病诊治及术后预防心房颤动复发提供依据,值得临床推广。

老年股骨粗隆间骨折髓内固定术后髋关节功能恢复影响因素的Meta分析

目的系统评价老年股骨粗隆间骨折髓内固定术后髋关节功能恢复障碍的影响因素。方法系统检索The Co⁃chrane Library、EMbase、PubMed、Web of Science、中国知网、中国生物医学数据库、万方数据库、维普数据库中公开发表的关于老年股骨粗隆间骨折髓内固定术后髋关节功能恢复影响因素的研究,检索时限为2017年1月1日至2023年3月10日。由2名研究员根据纳入和排除标准独立进行文献筛选和数据提取,进行质量评价后使用Review Manager 5.4软件进行Meta分析。结果最终纳入7篇文献。Meta分析结果显示,骨折类型(OR=4.81,95%CI 1.64~14.11,P=0.004<0.01)、超早期负重(OR=29.95,95%CI 16.05~55.88,P<0.00001)、年龄(OR=4.32,95%CI 1.48~12.54,P=0.007<0.01)、骨密度(OR=7.36,95%CI 1.91~28.34,P=0.004<0.01)、ASA分级(OR=3.40,95%CI 2.15~5.38,P<0.00001)、血浆蛋白(OR=6.80,95%CI 1.99~23.22,P=0.002<0.01)、康复师指导(OR=4.59,95%CI 2.08~10.14,P=0.0002<0.01)、复位质量(OR=12.24,95%CI 3.84~38.98,P<0.00001)、术后并发症(OR=4.15,95%CI 1.79~9.63,P=0.0009<0.00001)、合并基础疾病(OR=12.28,95%CI 8.91~16.92,P<0.00001)、麻醉方式(全麻)(OR=5.19,95%CI 3.15~8.54,P<0.00001)、麻醉方式(椎管内麻醉)(OR=14.69,95%CI 8.23~26.23,P<0.00001)为髋关节功能恢复的影响因素。手术时机(OR=2.65,95%CI 0.16~43.16,P=0.49>0.01)不是术后髋关节功能恢复的影响因素。结论稳定型骨折、超早期负重、年龄<70岁、骨密度≥-2.5SD、ASA分级低风险、血浆蛋白水平≥30g/L、有康复师指导、良好复位、术后并发症发生率低、合并基础疾病少、选择全麻或椎管内麻醉均为老年股骨粗隆间骨折髓内固定术后髋关节功能恢复的促进因素,尚无较多证据证明手术时机为髋关节功能恢复的影响因素。

我国海外投资中国家安全教育问题研究

在世界经济全球化进程的加快,我国积极推进“走出去”战略,中国经济迅速崛起,中国企业逐步成为世界舞台的重要力量,海外投资活动日益频繁。然而,在此过程中,我国企业对国家安全教育的重视不足,未能全面考量投资目的国的政治、经济、社会和文化等因素,导致海外投资企业面临诸多困境。为此,加强海外投资企业的风险识别、抵御和防范能力已成为当务之急,只有这样才能获得更大的经济和社会效益,助力中国企业树立良好形象,推动中国经济发展迈向新台阶。

比伐卢定用于经皮冠状动脉介入术围手术期高出血风险患者的安全性

目的探讨比伐卢定用于经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(PCI)围手术期高出血风险患者的安全性评价。方法选取2020年3月至2021年2月萍乡矿业集团有限责任公司总医院的60例进行PCI治疗并在围手术期使用肝素抗凝的高出血风险患者作为对照组,选取2021年3月至2022年2月萍乡矿业集有限责任公司总医院的60例进行PCI治疗的高出血风险患者作为观察组,观察组使用比伐卢定进行抗凝治疗。随访12个月,观察两组患者术后心血管不良事件(MACE)、出血事件的发生情况、心肌损伤相关指标水平、围手术期活化凝血时间(ACT)。结果随访12个月期间,观察组患者MACE总发生率低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);观察组患者出血事件总发生率低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);术后24 h,两组患者肌酸激酶同工酶(CK-MB)、心肌肌钙蛋白(cTnⅠ)水平低于本组术前,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);两组患者ACT水平在用药前、用药后5 min、30 min,手术结束后6 h比较,差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05),手术结束后1 h,观察组患者ACT水平低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论比伐卢定应用于PCI围手术期高出血风险患者心肌保护效果与肝素相似,且能够减少MACE和术后出血事件的发生,抗凝作用更稳定,具有较高的安全性。

Paleo-earthquake studies on the eastern section of the Kunlun fault

Roughly along the Animaqing Maji peak, the Kunlun fault section between the Tuosuo Lake and Kendingna (east Maqin) can be subdivided into two geometric segments: the Huashixia and the Maqin segments. These two segments behave differently in their Holocene slip rates and paleo-earthquake activities, with obviously higher paleo-seismic activity on the Huashixia segment than on Maqin segment. As many as four strong Holocene earthquakes are identified on the Huashixia segment from trenching and geomorphic studies. The recurrent interval for the latest three earthquakes are at about 500 a and 640 a, respectively. On the Maqin segment, at least three paleo-earthquake events can be defined from trenching, with a recurrent interval for the latest two events at about 1000 a. M = 7.5 earthquakes on Huashixia segment recur at every 411 a to 608 a with a characteristic slip at 5.75±0.57 m. Although the Maqin segment is less active, its accumulated strain energy during the long time period since last earthquake occurred (about 1070 a BP) deserves enough notice on its future earthquake probabilities.

急性缺血性脑血管病患者脑动脉粥样硬化性狭窄分布及危险因素

目的分析急性缺血性脑血管病患者脑动脉粥样硬化性狭窄的分布情况及危险因素。方法选取江苏大学附属徐州医院神经外科2018-02—2021-02收治的256例急性缺血性脑血管病患者为研究对象,分析病例资料和数字血管造影检查结果,探讨动脉粥样硬化性狭窄分布情况和危险因素。结果256例患者有狭窄病变600支,407支为颅内动脉狭窄,占67.83%;193例为颅外动脉狭窄,占32.17%。前循环和后循环分别为412支和188支,分别占68.67%和31.33%;107支血管累及大脑中动脉,占17.83%,为最常见累及血管。重度狭窄患者C反应蛋白(2.45±0.48)ng/L,白细胞介素-6水平(268.96±37.12)pg/L,中度狭窄患者C反应蛋白和白细胞介素-6水平分别为(2.36±0.54)mg/L和(252.55±43.72)pg/L;轻度狭窄患者C反应蛋白和白细胞介素-6水平分别为(2.21±0.32)mg/L和(244.78±40.32)pg/L,组间对比有统计学差异(P<0.05)。Logistic多因素分析显示,颅内动脉狭窄以高血压和糖尿病为独立危险因素;颅外动脉狭窄以性别、年龄、高血压和糖尿病为独立危险因素;同时狭窄者以性别、年龄、高血压、冠心病和糖尿病为独立危险因素,均存在统计学差异(P<0.05)。结论急性缺血性脑血管病患者脑动脉粥样硬化性狭窄以颅内动脉狭窄为主,前循环狭窄更为多发,主要累及大脑中动脉,脑动脉粥样硬化性狭窄以高血压和糖尿病为独立危险因素。

成山角水域动态自适应自主航行决策方法

为研究成山角分道通航制水域船舶自主航行方法,本文数字化了该水域交通环境,探究了碰撞危险度量化模型和动态避碰机理。建立了耦合船舶航向控制方法、非线性操纵运动模型和航线跟踪方法的自动航行模型。基于时序滚动提出了能适应目标船机动和自校正误差的自主航行决策方法,该方法考虑了避碰规则和良好船艺的要求。实验结果表明:本船可让清所有目标船并按计划航线航行;预设场景中,本船在31 s、3762 s右转14°、5°可安全通过。本文提出的方法可为分道通航制水域的自主航行提供理论基础。

基于贝叶斯反馈修正云模型的虚拟电厂运营风险综合评价方法

研究了虚拟电厂运营风险综合评价体系,为虚拟电厂建设运营提供支撑与指导。首先以运行风险、经济风险、安全风险和管理风险为一级指标构建了虚拟电厂风险综合评价指标库,为虚拟电厂安全可靠运行评价提供了支撑。其次提出了虚拟电厂风险综合评价模型,选用有序加权平均(ordered weighted average,OWA)—改进的层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)对指标进行赋权,进而通过基于贝叶斯反馈修正的云模型评价方法得出各级指标的评价分数,用以评价虚拟电厂的风险程度,为虚拟电厂运行改进与优化提供判断依据。最后选取某虚拟电厂进行算例分析验证了所提基于贝叶斯改进云模型的虚拟电厂风险评价指标体系的有效性及优越性。

老年高血压脑出血患者再出血的风险预测模型构建与验证

目的构建老年高血压脑出血患者再出血的风险预测模型,并验证其效能。方法回顾性分析郑州大学第五附属医院2019-01-2021-12收治的336例老年高血压脑出血患者的临床资料,随机分为建模集(n=224)与验证集(n=112)。随访12个月,根据是否发生再出血将建模集分为发生组(n=40)和未发生组(n=184),Logistic回归分析探讨再出血的危险因素;R软件rms程序包绘制风险预测列线图模型,Bootstrap法和受试者工作特征(ROC)对构建的模型的预测效能进行验证。结果再出血发生率18.15%,建模集与验证集再出血发生率分别为17.86%、18.75%,且多发生于发病后1周内;发生组高血压病程长于未发生组[(15.15±3.20)a比(10.28±2.04)a,P<0.05],脑出血量多于未发生组[(79.91±15.56)mL比(51.12±10.58)m L,P<0.05],血肿形态不规则、合并糖尿病、凝血功能障碍、降压治疗不依从占比均高于未发生组(42.50%比22.83%,45.00%比23.91%,35.00%比15.76%,27.50%比10.33%,P<0.05),上述均为再出血的影响因素(OR=1.836、1.193、3.733、5.114、3.451、3.317,P<0.05);基于再出血的危险因素Logistic回归分析结果,构建再出血的风险预测模型,经验证C-index=0.846,校正曲线与标准曲线拟合度理想,且该模型预测再出血的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.952(95%CI:0.895~0.984),灵敏度和特异度分别为90.48%、91.21%。结论高血压病程、脑出血量、血肿形态不规则、合并糖尿病、凝血功能障碍、降压治疗不依从均是老年高血压脑出血患者再出血的危险因素,基于此构建的风险预测模型可准确预测再出血风险。

城市地下综合管廊施工风险耦合评价方法

为研究一套适用于城市地下综合管廊施工风险耦合评价方法,文中从人为、机械设备、材料、管理、环境、施工技术6个维度分析城市地下综合管廊施工风险,构建一套31个指标的城市地下综合管廊施工风险指标体系。引入风险耦合理论、机理,根据C-OWA算子可削弱专家主观经验判断的极值影响、相互作用矩阵法可同时考虑多因素之间交互作用对系统的影响,建立基于C-OWA算子理论和相互作用矩阵理论的风险评价模型,可更加科学合理地为风险指标赋值。最后以某市地下综合管廊为例,应用这种评价方法,计算得出施工风险强度为中等风险,与实际相符,验证文中方法的可行性。对高风险因素提出管控措施,有助于各单位有效控制措施、降低施工风险事故发生的概率,推进现场安全管理。