Recognition and Measurement of Losses Caused by Systematic Risk in Damages of False Statements

Based on the single-factor market model, this paper examines the confirmation basis and measurement of the losses arising from systematic risk in the civil damages of false statements. The paper argues that the systematic risk not only affects the investment in securities during times of financial crisis, but also causes losses in daily securities trading. The paper carries out an empirical analysis on the existence of fl coefficient for China＇s listed companies within a period of one year, and examines the impact of systematic risk on the losses of investors. The civil damages of false statements should take full account of the losses arising from systematic risk. After analysis, the paper uses the correlation coefficient to represent the ratio of losses arising from systematic risk of all the transactions of a particular stock during a certain period of time, and tries to develop two methods to measure the damages after adjusting the losses caused by the systematic risk. The paper has a theoretical foundation for the estimation of losses caused by systematic risk, and matches the risks and returns. The result of the paper has provided an effective method of calculation in the determination of reasonable damages in the case of China Langfang Development Co., Ltd.

Phosphorus Fertilizer Effect in Sugarcane Red Soil and Its Loss Risk Assessment under Different Phosphorus Application Rates

[Objectives] The soil phosphorus balance and potential risk of phosphorus loss under different phosphorus application rates in sugarcane red soil in Guangxi were evaluated to provide reference for scientific and rational application of phos- phorus fertilizer and reduction of environmental pollution. [Methods] A field trial and simulated rainfall experiment were carried out. In the field experiment, five phospho- rus levels （0, 75, 150, 300 and 600 kg P2OJhm2） were set, the yield of sugarcane stems and leaves were measured, and their phosphorus content was determined to obtain aboveground P accumulation and P surplus in soil. After sugarcane harvest- ing, calcium magnesium phosphate and potassium dihydrogen phosphate were ap- plied to soil with different levels of phosphorus to conduct the simulated rainfall ex- periment based on monthly rainfall from May to September in Guangxi during 2000-2015. The leachate was collected to analyze the concentration and total amount of phosphorus to obtain the regression equations between available phos- phorus content in soil and the increase of phosphorus concentration in leachate. [Results] Sugarcane yield increased significantly when phosphorus application rate was 150 kg P：~OJhm2. When phosphorus application rate exceeded this value, the yield of sugarcane stems and aboveground part was also significantly higher than the treatment without phosphorus application, but the increase of yield was similar to the treatment with phosphorus application rate of 150 kg P2OJhm2. According to the relationship equation between phosphorus application rate and soil Olsen-P con- tent as well as the relationship equations between the increment of P concentration in leachate and soil Olsen-P content in the treatments with calcium magnesium phosphate and KH2PO4, the increment of P concentration in leachate was 0.02-0.04 mg/L when phosphorus application rate was 75 kg P2OJhm2; the increment of P concentration in leachate was 0.07-0.10 mg/L as phosphorus application rate was 600 kg P2OJhm2. [Conclusions] The reasonable application rate of phosphorus fer- tilizer for sugarcane is 150 kg P2Or/hm2. However, long-term continuous application of phosphorus fertilizer can promote the enhancement of available phosphorus con- tent in soil and increase the risk of phosphorus loss from sugarcane fields.

Effect of Phopshate Fertilizer and Manure on Crop Yield, Soil P Accumulation, and the Environmental Risk Assessment

Phosphorus （P） applied from fertilizer and manure is important in increasing crop yield and soil fertility; however, excessive uses of phosphate fertilizer and manure may also increase P loss from agricultural soils, posing environmental impact. A long term experiment was conducted on a calcareous soil （meadow cinnamon） in Hebei Province, China, from 2003 to 2006 to investigate the effects of phosphate fertilizer and manure on the yield of Chinese cabbage, soil P accumulation, P sorption saturation, soluble P in runoff water, and P leaching. P fertilizer （P2O5） application at a rate of 360 kg ha^-1 or manure of 150 t ha^-1 significantly increased Chinese cabbage yield as compared to the unfertilized control. However, no significant yield response was found with excessive phosphate or manure application. Soil Olsen-P, soluble P, bioavailable P, the degree of phosphorus sorption saturation in top soil layer （0-20 cm）, and soluble P in runoff water increased significantly with the increase of phosphate fertilizer and manure application rates, whereas the maximum phosphorus sorption capacity （Qm） decreased with the phosphate fertilizer and manure application rates. Soil Olsen-P and soluble P also increased significantly in the sub soil layer （20-40 cm） with the high P fertilizer and manure rates. It indicates that excessive P application over crop demand can lead to a high environmental risk owing to the enrichment of soil Olsen-P, soluble P, bioavailable P, and the degree of phosphorus sorption saturation in agricultural soils.

Theory and Application of Loss of Life Risk Analysis for Dam Break

The loss of life risk evaluation model for dam break is built in this paper.By using an improved Monte Carlo method,the overtopping probability induced by concurrent flood and wind is calculated,and the Latin Hypercube Sampling is used to generate random numbers.The Graham method is used to calculate the loss of life resulting from dam failure.With Dongwushi reservoir located at Hebei Province taken as an example,the overtopping probability induced by concurrent flood and wind is calculated as 4.77×10-6.Los...

Evolution of seismic risk management for insurance over the past 30 years

During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing ＂Insur Tech＂ tools to address the much needed ＂Insurance for the Masses＂, especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and scientists.This paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing financial risk due to natural catastrophes. Historical losses and the share of those losses covered by insurance will be presented. How such risk sharing can help the nation share the burden of losses between tax paying public, the ＂at risk＂ property owners, the insurers and the reinsurers will be discussed. The paper will summarize the tools that are used by the insurance and reinsurance companies for estimating their future losses due to catastrophic natural events. The paper will also show how the results of loss estimation technologies developed by engineers are communicated to the business flow of insurance/reinsurance companies. Finally, to make it possible to grow ＂Insurance for the Masses - IFM＂, the role played by parametric insurance products and Insur Tech tools will be discussed.

Effects of Orlistat - induced Weight Loss on Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Obese Chinese Subjects

Objectives To observe the influence of weight loss induced by orlistat on several cardiovascular diseases risk factors in obese Chinese subjects. Methods Sixty obese Chinese patients participated in a 24 week clinical trial. Participants were prescribed a slightly hypocaloric diet and exercise, then they were randomly assigned double -blind treatment with either orlistat 120 mg three times a day or placebo. Their body weight, blood pressure, fasting glucose, insulin, HbA1c, and serum lipid profile were performed before and after the weight loss intervention. Results After 24 weeks, orlistat -treated group lost more of their body weight than placebo group (6. 66 ± 0. 52 kg, 8. 44±4.08% and 1. 98 ± 0. 44 kg, 2. 44±1. 74 % , respectively, P < 0. 05) . Moreover, after treatment, orlistat - treated patients showed significant decreases in serum levels of total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein - cholesterol and high density lipoprotein - cholesterol ( P < 0.01), but in placebo group we found no change. Both systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure fell significantly in orlistat - treated group. Fasting glucose and HOMA - IR in orlistat - treated group was distinctly reduced if compared with placebo group. Conclusions Weight loss resulting from orlistat treatment and slightly hypocaloric diet has produced favorable effects on several cardiovascular risk factors in obese Chinese subjects.

Modeling Patch Characteristics of Farmland Loss for Site Assessment in Urban Fringe of Beijing, China

Farmland protection and delimitation in the urban fringe considers not only natural factors but also the spatial characters and site factors. Taking Daxing District, Beijing in China as a case study, this paper used landscape ecology and power-law methods to ana- lyze and evaluate farmland loss during the period of 2004~2007 based on the interpretation results of SPOT5 remote sensing images in 2004 and 2007. At the patch level, we selected four landscape indices, namely patch size, shape index, the nearest neighbor distance between farmland and construction land （including residential land and other construction land）, and cropping type, to evaluate the risk of farmland loss and establish a farmland site analysis indicator system. The results showed that patch size and shape index have a sig- nificant positive correlation with farmland loss, whereas the distance to construction land has a clear negative correlation with farmland loss. As regards cropping type, fallow farmland is much easier for non-agriculUlral use than cultivated farmland. The relative transition ratio among vegetable land, fallow farmland and cultivated farmland is 1 ： 5.6 ： 1. The patch size of lost farmland follows a power-law distribution, indicating that not only small parcels but also large parcels can be lost. Patch size less than 4 ha or more than 15 ha is in high loss risk, between 4 ha and 10 ha in medium loss risk, and larger than 10 ha and less than 15 ha in low risk. Farmland with a more regular shape has a higher likelihood of loss. Patch shape index less than 2.0 is in high loss risk, between 2.0 and 3.0 in medium loss risk, and larger than 3.0 in low risk. Construction land has a varying impact on farmland loss, the residential land effeeted distance is 1000 m, and that of the other construction land is 2000 m. This analysis showed the relationships between site factors and farmland loss, and the analysis framework can provide support and reference for farmland protection and delimitation of prime farmland in China.

New Maintenance Strategies for Generating Companies in Power Market

A new approach to maintenance scheduling of generating units(MSU)in competitive electricity markets was presented,which was formulated as a noncooperative game with complete information.The payoff of each generating company(Genco)was defined as the profit from the energy auction market minus maintenance cost and risk loss.The compensation fee of interruptible load was a part of the maintenance cost when the permitted maintenance capacity in the system was insufficient.Hourly energy auction was incorporated in the computation of both revenues from energy market and risk loss of maintenance strategy as a nested game.A new heuristic search algorithm for the calculation of the game equilibrium of MSU was presented,which coordinates the solutions of non-equilibrium,unique equilibrium and multiple equilibria.Numerical results for a two-Genco system and a realistic system were used to demonstrate the basic ideas and the applicability of the proposed method,as well as its computational efficiency.

Mapping and ranking global mortality,affected population and GDP loss risks for multiple climatic hazards

Coping with extreme climate events and its related climatic disasters caused by climate change has become a global issue and drew wide attention from scientists, policy-makers and public. This paper calculated the expected annual multiple climatic hazards intensity index based on the results of nine climatic hazards including tropical cyclone, flood, landslide, storm surge, sand-dust storm, drought, heat wave, cold wave and wildfire. Then a vulnerability model involving the coping capacity indicator with mortality rate, affected population rate and GDP loss rate, was developed to estimate the expected annual affected population, mortality and GDP loss risks. The results showed that： countries with the highest risks are also the countries with large population or GDP. To substantially reduce the global total climatic hazards risks, these countries should reduce the exposure and improving the governance of integrated climatic risk; Without considering the total exposure, countries with the high mortality rate, affected population rate or GDP loss rate, which also have higher or lower coping capacity, such as the Philippines, Bangladesh and Vietnam, are the hotspots of the planning and strategy making for the climatic disaster risk reduction and should focus on promoting the coping capacity.

Evaluation of acute kidney injury as defined by the risk, injury, failure, loss, and end-stage criteria in critically ill patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

Background Acute kidney injury （AKI） is considered as a common and significant complication following abdominal aortic aneurysm （AAA） repair. This study aimed to assess the associated risk factors of AKI in the critically ill patients undergoing AAA repair and to evaluate the appropriate AKI management in the specific population. Methods We retrospectively examined data from all critically ill patients undergoing AAA repairs at our institution from April 2007 to March 2012. Multivariable analysis was used to identify factors associated with postoperative AKI, which was defined by risk, injury, failure, loss and end-stage （RIFLE） kidney disease criteria. The goal-directed hemodynamic optimization （maintenance of optimal hemodynamics and neutral or negative fluid balance） and renal outcomes were also reviewed. Results Of the 71 patients enrolled, 32 （45.1%） developed AKI, with 30 （93.8%） cases diagnosed on admission to surgical intensive care unit （SICU）. Risk factors for AKI were ruptured AAA （odds ratio （OR）=5.846, 95% confidence interval （CI）： 1.346-25.390）, intraoperative hypotension （OR=6.008, 95% CI： 1.176 to 30.683）, and perioperative blood transfusion （OR=4.611, 95% CI： 1.307-16.276）. Goal-directed hemodynamic optimization resulted in 75.0% complete and 18.8% partial renal recovery. Overall in-hospital mortality was 2.8%. AKI was associated with significantly increased length of stay （（136.9±24.5） hours vs. （70.4±11.3） hours） in Surgical Intensive Care Unit. Conclusions Critically ill patients undergoing AAA repair have a high incidence of AKI, which can be early recognized by RIFLE criteria. Rupture, hypotension, and blood transfusion are the significant associated risk factors. Application of goal-directed hemodynamic optimization in this cohort appeared to be effective in improving renal outcome.

Towards a Local-Level Resilience Composite Index: Introducing Different Degrees of Indicator Quantification

Within disaster resilience research there is a trend of developing quantitative metrics for resilience analysis. Quantitative indicators can be useful for decision makers in the field of resilience building to prioritize preventive actions to target the least resilient. This study explores possibilities and constraints in quantifying disaster resilience at the local level. While national or regionallevel indicators mostly employ existing secondary source data, at the local level it is necessary to collect new data in most cases. The main aim of this study is to investigate how resilience indicators with different stages of operationalization can be developed at the local level. Using the example of the Swiss canton of Grisons, three local-level partial indicators for community resilience against natural hazard are developed. In this process qualitative research is the necessary basis to construct quantitative indicators. For each partial indicator different stages of quantification are offered to illustrate how quantitatively operationalized indicators can be developed and to examine their strengths and weaknesses. For this purpose a classification of different indicator operationalization stages is proposed,ranging from vague qualitative criteria to fully quantified criteria.