Analysis and evaluation of enterprise risk management capability elements

Research on enterprise risk management capability is conducted with a view of discerning and processing risks, in which an evaluation index system and an evaluation model of enterprise risk management capabilities are constructed. The risk management capability consists of four aspects, i.e. risk identification capability, risk assessment capability, risk planning capability and risk control capability. Risk identification and assessment capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on finding and analyzing risks efficiently, while risk planning and control capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on resolving risks effectively. Each of capabilities is then further divided into more detailed elements based on the characteristics of enterprise development for a quantitative analysis of enterprise risk management capability. The approach adopted is a quantitative technique based on the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Finally, a case is pulled in to illustrate the feasibility of the method from an empirical perspective. This study is expected to be helpful for enterprises in cultivating their core capabilities.

Authorization Management Framework Based on Joint Trust-Risk Evaluation

Authorization management is important precondition and foundation for coordinating and resource sharing in open networks. Recently, authorization based on trust is widely used whereby access rights to shared resource are granted on the basis of their trust relation in distributed environment. Nevertheless, dynamic change of the status of credential and chain of trust induces to uncertainty of trust relation. Considering uncertainty of authorization and analyzing deficiency of authorization model only based on trust, we proposes joint trust-risk evaluation and build the model based on fuzzy set theory, and make use of the membership grade of fuzzy set to express joint trust-risk relation. Finally, derivation principle and constraint principle of joint trust-risk relationships are presented. The authorization management model is defined based on joint trust-risk evaluation, proof of compliance and separation of duty are analyzed. The proposed model depicts not only trust relationship between principals, but also security problem of authorization.

Study on the evaluation system for the coal safety management based on risk pre-control

The new type of risk management is process management. First, the hazardsources are identified before coal mine accidents occur, and then the pre-control measureand information monitoring method based on classifying the hidden hazard sources aregiven. Lastly, the risk pre-alarm and risk control method are confirmed, the managementstandard and management measure are used to eliminate the hidden hazard sources. Inthis study, an evaluation system is built to evaluate the result of risk management.

Evaluation of supply chain default risk based on fuzzy influence diagram

After introducing the supply chain default risk and its causes,based on the literature review of the evaluation methods of supply chain risks,a new evaluation method called the fuzzy influence diagram which combines fuzzy sets with influence diagram theory and considers the interaction among risk factors is proposed.Furthermore,an evaluation model of the supply chain default risk is established based on the research of default risk evaluation and the fuzzy influence diagram.First,the model takes the loss of risk as a valuable node,risk factors as random nodes,drawing a risk analysis influence diagram.Then,three kinds of fuzzy sets are defined,including state fuzzy sets,probabilistic fuzzy sets and a relation fuzzy matrix.Finally,by using the fuzzy algorithm to evaluate nodes,the probability of risk occurrence and the degrees of risk loss are obtained.On the basis of the model,an instance application is used to prove its utility and effectiveness.

Equipment Development Risk Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

The equipment development risk evaluation refers to evaluating the equipment risks in the equipment development phase based on risk analysis,risk score calculation,and risk level identification.The results could lead the direction of future work.The risk management in equipment development phase was studied.The risk management model in equipment development phases was established on the base of basic theories in risk management and some interrelated risk management models in other fields.The application of the established model was illuminated by an instance.

Research on Risk Evaluation Method for International Engineering Projects

Risk evaluation is one of the important elements of international engineering project management. The risk factors of international engineering projects are systematically analyzed from multiple dimension features of the projects. The muhilayer evaluation index system for the international engineering project risk assessment is proposed and constructed, which consists of 8 I-grade indexes and 24 II-grade indexes as policy risk, market risk, resource risk, and technical scheme risk, schedule risk, funding risk, personnel risk and management risk. And then the self-evaluation and benchmarking evaluation methods are applied to evaluate the international engineering project risk, and established the corresponding mathematical models. Finally, a project evaluation example is given to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the mathematical models.

Factors Affecting Disease Risk Perception and Self-Management Behaviors among Japanese Long-Term Overseas Volunteers

Introduction: Many overseas volunteers have worked in low and middle-income countries. However traveling abroad and staying in an unfamiliar environment with inadequate medical infrastructure exposes volunteers to a wide range of health risks. The aim of this study was to clarify the relationships among disease knowledge and symptoms, disease risk perception, and self-management skills. Methods: This was a questionnaire survey of 189 Japanese who were preparing to volunteer abroad. A factor analysis was conducted on 13 items (six general risk events and seven major diseases) of risk perception. Correlation analysis was performed between the identified risk perception factors and disease knowledge and symptoms. Risk perception scores by factors from the seven disease items were compared between the Self-management Score (SMS) group and disease knowledge and risk of symptoms group, using T-tests. St. Luke’s International University Ethics Committee (19-A092) approved this study. Results: Many participants expected to suffer from digestive diseases (69.3%) and dermatitis (55%) in the field. On the other hand, few expected high risk of malaria (26.5%) or dengue fever (36%). Factor analysis yielded robust factor loadings creating a “Dread” and an “Unknown” factor accounting for 62.2% of total variance. Strong correlation was not found between SMS and disease risk perception. A weak negative correlation was observed in dengue fever, digestive disorders, and dermatitis (r = −0.20 to −0.25, p < 0.001) on the “Unknown” factor. A high SMS score was associated with a lower “Unknown” factor score for malaria, diarrhea, dermatitis, and dental disorders. In addition, higher disease knowledge was significantly associated with higher “Dread” factor score for dental disorders. Conclusions: Self-management skills and disease knowledge will enable higher risk awareness of common diseases and high lethality diseases.

Impacts of the Financial Factors on Schedule Delays Risk of the International Contracting Projects: Evidence from Highway BOT Pro-jects in Vietnam

Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse effects on local government and foreign investment companies. Based on international engineering contracting mode of Vietnam highway BOT construction projects, we discussed the drive financial factors of schedule delays, using the methods of exploratory factor analysis and questionnaire survey, and evaluated the effects of various factors which are through regression analysis. The empirical results show that the five categories of financial factors, including the policy change, slow payment, financial mismanagement, financial market changes and lack of fiscal, have significant effects on schedule delay. Furtherly, we suggested that strengthening policy research and improving financial management ability should be used to reduce the influence of relevant financial factors on schedule delay, to improve the profitability of international businesses and the motivation of foreign enterprises to participate in Vietnam highway project.

Existing European Buildings and Cities： Economic Improvement and Evaluation of the Cost-Benefit Related to Lifecycle and Performance

In this study, the interdependency is presented between the characteristics of the buildings and the relative economic value, in order to plan economic policies and preconditions for improving the quality of the European buildings heritage through access, by an holistic approach, to the necessary f＇mancial resources. The economic value of a real estate asset is closely connected to the construction features and their performance over time （lifecycle）. Safer, more comfortable and productive buildings for inhabitants are at the same time more operationally efficient and economically convenient for the owners. Solidity characteristics and static resistance to earthquakes, eco-efficiency and other constructive qualities of the building will provide benefits in the long term, and they are directly related the LCC （life cycle cost） including specific construction and/or maintenance costs. Moreover, these characteristics have an impact on the ＂market value＂ and on the ＂mortgage lending value＂ of properties, as well as on the possibility of financing the purchase through access to more affordable mortgages, and to make really feasible conversions even in the absence of public financial resources. This study introduces a new approach for conversions involving whole buildings or city areas. This research identifies the economic sustainability of a project by combining principles and suitable methodologies, together with performance and other characteristics. These aspects constitute the essential prerequisite for obtaining mortgages from banks and/or financial resources from international investors.

特种设备风险控制管理模型研究

为提高特种设备安全管理的效率,实现特种设备管理资源的高效配置,提高特种设备企业的安全管理水平,首先,建立特种设备的三级风险评价指标体系;其次,基于层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)计算各级风险评价指标的权重,进而建立三级风险评价模型;最后,结合分类预警及协同治理2个环节,构建了特种设备风险控制管理模型,并运用所建模型剖析具体案例。研究表明,特种设备风险控制管理模型可为开展特种设备安全管理工作提供重要的数据支持和技术方法,具有一定的科学性和有效性。

基于装置运行平稳性的石油化工安全管理策略研究

为了找出并评价石化装置支配性风险因素,实现安全生产风险源头控制和管理,满足石化装置安全生产风险控制的高效性要求,通过建立石化装置事故风险影响模型,运用决策试验与评估实验室方法(DEMATEL)从“现代事故因果连锁理论”视角分析发现人、机(物)等风险因素都受管理因素支配。进而,基于工艺稳定性、工艺稳定性修正、非计划停工3个指标建立石化装置平稳性模型,对装置运行平稳率进行追踪统计,并通过实例对该模型进行了分析和验证。结果表明:该石化装置运行平稳性模型可以量化追踪事故风险支配性因素的控制效果,可展示石化装置不同阶段下的风险特点,可作为装置事故风险预警指标和安全管理绩效指标,可提高装置的安全管理水平。

大型综合医院施工动火消防管理的安全风险评价与应用

随着大型综合医院快速发展,各类施工、改造、动火项目中的安全管理至关重要,尤其是长峰医院“4·18”事故更是将医院施工动火的安全管理提到前所未有的高度。本文以北京市某大型综合医院开展施工动火消防管理的安全风险评价与应用为例,运用文献调研、访谈调查和实地观察等方法,综合LEC模型结论对医院施工动火消防安全管理进行安全风险评价。针对评价结果对施工动火开展有效管控,通过完善动火制度、形成标准化安全监管和检查流程、应用信息化手段加强全过程监管,降低安全风险,提升管理成效。

地铁施工安全状态智能分析与动态分级系统研究与设计

通过对既有安全风险管理基础数据进行标准化和数值化处理,包括巡视数据、监测数据、工程风险等级、工程风险类型以及工程设计参数等,借助案例库和神经网络研究,将传统依赖监测与巡视的单一预警判别方法升级为基于多源信息融合的工程安全状态综合智能分析。此外,设计一套定期动态评估与分级的工程安全状态智能分析系统,该系统以既有安全风险管理基础数据为基础,通过自动数据采集、智能分析、自动发布建议措施以及形象化展示等模块功能,实现对工程安全状态的智能判定。这一创新取代传统的人工判定方法,促进安全风险管控向智能化方向转变,为现场安全风险管理提供更为便捷、科学的管控决策和技术支持。

超大型城市安全韧性发展面临的挑战及思考

作为我国超大型城市,重庆市地形地貌复杂、气候环境独特、自然灾害频发,对城市的安全韧性发展有更高的要求。该文围绕城市安全韧性发展的理论研究基础、评价指标及体系、面临的若干挑战及引发的相关思考进行讨论。探讨了城市安全韧性评价指标的原则性要求及评价体系的构成方法;针对构建“能监测、会预警、快处置”的城市风险综合管理平台建设,提出了具体建设内容及技术指标要求;同时,针对目前存在的数据信息孤岛以及城市安全意识不足的问题,提出了相关的处置建议和措施。研究结论可为推进我国城市安全发展,提升我国城市安全治理体系与治理能力现代化水平,提供借鉴意义和参考。

基于潜在风险的管理模式对小儿外科门诊医生专业技能的影响研究

目的探讨基于潜在风险的管理模式在小儿外科门诊中的应用效果及对医生专业技能的影响。方法选取2021年9月—2022年8月潍坊市人民医院小儿外科门诊医生29名为对照组;2022年9月—2023年8月同一批小儿外科门诊医生29名为观察组。对照组采用常规管理,观察组联合基于潜在风险的管理模式,比较两组专业技能、迷你临床评估(Mini Clinical Evaluation,mini-CEX)及满意度。结果观察组药品清点、健康体检、病历记录、医患沟通、治疗方案决定及消毒隔离得分高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P均<0.05);观察组mini-CEX得分高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);观察组管理方法、技能提升、绩效考核、定期培训及考核方法满意度高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P均<0.05)。结论基于潜在风险的管理模式用于小儿外科门诊中效果显著,能提高医生专业技能及综合素质水平,可获得较高的管理满意度。

FMEA模型和6S管理方法在降低儿童专科医院PIVAS调剂差错中的应用

目的降低儿童专科医院静脉药物配置中心(PIVAS)的调剂差错。方法采用失效模式和效应分析(FMEA)模型,对我院PIVAS调剂流程进行风险识别,找出各环节中可能导致调剂差错的潜在失效模式,分析其失效原因,并对潜在失效模式的严重度、发生率和检测度进行量化评分,计算其风险优先指数,从而筛选需要优先改善的失效模式;应用6S管理方法,从整理(seiri)、整顿(seiton)、清扫(seiso)、清洁(seiketsu)、素养(shitsuke)和安全(safety)6个方面制定相应的改善措施,并对实施前后的干预效果进行评价。结果根据风险优先指数评估筛选出32个潜在失效模式,其中需要优先改善的关键失效模式共18个。根据6S管理方法采取相应措施后,18个关键失效模式的风险优先指数均有所下降,风险优先指数值由497降至142,降幅达71.43%;其中15个关键失效模式的差错率均较实施前显著降低(P<0.05)。结论应用FMEA模式和6S管理方法对PIVAS工作流程的各环节进行风险管控的预测和改进,能有效降低PIVAS调剂差错风险,保障儿童静脉用药安全。

长江上游临江河流域颗粒态磷流失风险评价

磷流失风险评价是磷流失治理的重要依据。基于修正的土壤流失方程,结合土壤全磷含量、颗粒泥沙的磷富集系数和泥沙输移比构建颗粒态磷指数模型,估算长江上游临江河流域2010年、2015年和2020年颗粒态磷流失量分布并识别关键源区。结果表明,2010年、2015年和2020年临江河流域面源颗粒态磷流失量最大值分别为495.9、815.8和936.1 kg/hm^(2),平均值分别为0.8、0.9和2.2 kg/hm^(2);以面源磷流失阈值2 kg/hm^(2)为标准识别关键源区,2010年、2015年、2020年的关键源区面积分别为86.7、77.6、182.5 km^(2);识别出的关键源区面积分别占流域面积的11.8%、10.6%、24.9%,贡献了流域84.7%、92.0%和92.6%的面源颗粒态磷流失量。关键源区主要分布在临江河上游、圣水河、大竹溪和金门河子流域的低丘缓坡区,对关键源区进行分区治理,提出以化肥减量、工程拦截为主的临江河流域颗粒态磷流失治理措施。

基于改进FAHP的水利工程EPC总承包项目风险管理研究

结合水利工程EPC总承包项目的自身特点,建立改进FAHP的风险评判模型,最后,进行实证分析。结果表明,基于改进FAHP的水利工程EPC总承包项目风险评判模型具有一定的科学性和适用性,同时,研究结果对提高水利工程EPC总承包项目风险管理水平具有一定的参考意义。

既有建筑现场检测的风险研究——基于模糊层次综合评价法

针对中国既有建筑现场检测的工作特点,将现场检测的风险因素归纳为现场环境因素、技术因素、人员因素和管理因素四个方面。通过运用模糊层次综合评价法,建立既有建筑现场检测的风险模型,分析计算出整体风险模型分数。根据该风险模型评价结果提出了既有建筑现场检测的风险应对策略,为既有建筑现场检测风险管理提供借鉴。

复杂有机污染场地地下水风险管控工程效果评估研究——以常州市某污染场地为例

以常州某典型复杂有机污染场地为例,该场地地下水中1,2-二氯乙烷、三氯甲烷以及苯系物等多种复合有机污染物严重超标。2020年经场地调查与风险评估划定了重点管控区,自2021年3月起采取地下水抽提结合自然衰减的风险管控措施。通过对管控修复工程效果进行评估,结果表明:管控修复工程有效控制了污染羽的扩散,对于单组分污染物管控区,污染物的削减明显,地下水污染物的管控修复取得明显成效;场地污染物的去除主要通过自然衰减过程实现,抽提对污染物去除的贡献较低。对于复合污染场地,在调查阶段应对污染特征进行精细刻画,以减少非水相污染源遗漏以及多组分溶解增强效应对风险管控效果的影响,制定合理有效的管控修复决策。本研究为复杂有机物污染场地风险管控体系建设与风险管控效果评估提供借鉴和科学指导。