Risk-taking path choice behaviors under ATIS in transportation networks with demand uncertainty

A new travel time reliability-based traffic assignment model is proposed to investigate the effects of an advanced transportation information system (ATIS) on drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. In the model, drivers are divided into two classes. The first class is not equipped with ATIS, while the second class is equipped with ATIS. Different risk-taking path choice behaviours of the two classes are studied, respectively. A corresponding mixed equilibrium traffic assignment model is formulated as a variational inequality problem in terms of path flows, which is solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Numerical results indicate that the ATIS can influence the drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours and the total system travel time in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. It is also found that under higher demand levels, the benefits of ATIS for network performance enhancement may be more obvious.

Modeling optimal oil production paths under risk service contracts

Due to the rigorous fiscal terms and huge potential risk of risk service contracts,optimizing oil production paths is one of the main challenges in designing oilfield development plans.In this paper,an oil production path optimization model is developed to maximize economic benefits within constraints of technology factors and oil contracts.This analysis describes the effects of risk service contract terms on parameters of inputs and outputs and quantifies the relationships between production and production time,revenues,investment and costs.An oil service development and production project is illustrated in which the optimal production path under its own geological conditions and contract terms is calculated.The influences of oil price,service fees per barrel and operating costs on the optimal production have been examined by sensitivity analysis.The results show that the oil price has the largest impact on the optimal production,which is negatively related to oil price and positively related to service fees per barrel and operating costs.

Risk Theta*:一种基于地形危险度的任意航向路径规划算法

提出了一种基于地形危险度的任意航向路径规划算法——Risk Theta*。首先以星球表面地形特征统计分析为基础提出了地形危险度指标,并建立地形危险度地图。在此基础上应用Basic Theta*搜索,以危险度最低为方向搜索最优路径。仿真实验证明,该算法能够在栅格地图上找到比A*和Basic Theta*算法危险度低得多、长度相当的任意航向路径,既显著提高了巡视器的安全性,又满足了星球巡视探测对任意航向行驶的迫切需求,因此具有较强的实用性。

Dynamic Risk Assessment Index System for Earth-Rock Dam during Construction

During the construction of earth-rock dam,mutual exclusive construction goals such as quality,safety,progress and cost all have influences on each other,with risk factors being everchanging as the construction progresses.Accurate identification of the risk factors,as well as clearing any possible effect that any risk factors might have on the construction project is the key and foundation to our cooperative control of the construction goals.According to the construction planning of earth-rock dam,the hall3 D structure was used to identify the potential changes of risk factors,and the possible means of any risk factors to interfere with the construction goals.The dynamic risk assessment index system is established by deploying the WBS-RBS(work breakdown structurerisk breakdown structure)method,aiming at the construction goals of earth-rock dam.The case study shows that the index system is very effective at risk management of earth-rock dam during construction,and relatively practicable.

党组织引领基层智治的外化效应及其风险治理

党组织引领基层智治是加快推进基层治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要途径,亦是顺应信息时代发展潮流、以中国式现代化推进中华民族伟大复兴的必然趋势。在这一治理实践中,呈现出智治主体全时空在场化、智治行为全过程流动化、智治平台全链条共通化、智治服务全方位一体化的外化效应;但同时也表现出从“简化”到“减化”的技术依赖风险、从“赋能”到“负能”的技术异化风险和从“提质”到“提绩”的信息形式主义风险。当下,应当坚持以党的领导引领基层智治价值理性回归、以素质培育带动干群智治思维同步提升、以多维技术集成共建基层智治融通平台、以完善制度供给有效保障基层智治秩序,共同推进基层治理迈向智慧新时代。

New SRLG-diverse path selection algorithm in survivable GMPLS networks

In conventional shared risk link group （SRLG）-diverse path selection （CSPS） algorithm in survivable GMPLS networks, SRLG is taken into account when selecting the backup paths, while the primary path selection method is the sarne as the algorithms without SRLG constraint. A problem of CSPS algorithm is that, after a primary path is selected, the success probability to select an SRLG-diverse backup path for it is low. If SRLG is taken into account when computing the primary path, then the probability to successfully select an SRLG-diverse backup path will be much increased. Based on this idea, an active SRLG-diverse path selection （ASPS） algorithm is proposed. To actively avoid selecting those SRLG links, when computing the primary path, a link that share risk with more links is assigned a larger link cost. To improve the resource utilization ratio, it is permitted that the bandwidth resources are shared among backup paths. What is more, differentiated reliability （DiR） requirements of different customers are considered in ASPS algorithm. The simulation results show that, compared with CSPS algorithm, ASPS algorithm not only increases successful protection probability but also improves resource utilization ratio.

装配式建筑吊装施工安全关键风险分析的改进DEMATEL方法

为了解决装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评估体系缺失、演化路径不清的共性问题,提高施工安全科学管理水平,提出了一种基于改进决策试验与实验室评估法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)的关键风险识别与演化路径分析方法。基于扎根理论构建装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评价指标体系,利用基于组合数有序加权算子(Combination Ordered Weighted Averaging,C-OWA)改进直接影响矩阵,建立DEMATEL模型决策矩阵,并通过因果关系图识别关键风险因素,探究关键风险演化路径,以武汉市某工程项目为背景开展实证研究。结果表明:该项目存在X_(1)(工人的专业水平与素质差)、X_(5)(工人的技能培训与安全教育不到位)、X_(15)(人员没有进行定期的安全培训)、X_(18)(现场施工安全管理水平低)、X_(19)(风险意识缺乏)等关键风险因素;在4条基础路径和2条复合路径中,复合路径的权重高于基础路径,随着关键风险之间直接和间接作用的复杂化,发生风险事件的可能性将逐步增加;复合路径除了通过基础路径与关键风险耦合得到以外,还可以通过基础路径的相互作用演化得到。

Research on the path of transitional development of liquor industry based on the background of "Internet +"

Liquor-making industry has stepped into the depths strategic transformation and faced more complex and versatile macro situation in recent years, which means that economy integration was accelerated, the spread of information technology sped up, consumer demand for products became complex and sophisticated, and product life cycle was shortened. The theory of "Internet +" highlights new turn in the strategic transformation of liquor-making industry. This paper, under the background of "Internet +", analyzes the existing situations of liquor-making industry, provides transition routes of strategic transformation in liquor-making industry, and gives prevention against transformation risks.

Influence Factors Concept Model for Public Participation in Nanotechnology Risk Communication

Based on risk social cognition theory and planned behavior theory, the influence factors of the public participation in the nanotechnology risk communication are analyzed,and the concept model is presented to analyze their relationships and functional mechanism. In the model,the risk communication behaviors are divided into two variables of the public opinion expression and information acquisition,and the subjective norm divided into the internal and external social networks. Then the questionnaire is designed so as to verify the proposed model and analyze their relationships. The survey data are analyzed using SMART PLS software. The validity analysis shows that the questionnaire has a high convergence and discriminant validity. In addition, the Cronbach'a coefficient of each item is more than 0. 70,which shows the questionnaire has a high credibility. Based on the statistical data analysis, relationships of the influence factors are obtained.Further,the influence path model of the public attitude,intention,self regulation and behavior control in the risk communication is established. According to the Bootstrap algorithm in SMART,the path coefficient and its explanation variance of each influence factor are obtained. The calculation results show that the explanation variance values are all bigger than 10% and the path is reliable.Based on the path model, the influence path and function relationships of the participation attitude, subjective norm and behavior control on the participation intention and behavior are obtained. This will provide theoretical and data supports for the risk management and strategy making of the public participation in nanotechnology risk communication.

Risk Control of Transmission Line Overload for Wind-Integrated Power Systems

With the rapid development of the wind generation,uncertainties of random wind and load bring some inevitable impacts on the security of power system. Once the uncertainty causes line power to exceed its limit, line overload will occur. The paper presents the risk control of transmission line overload for windintegrated power systems. Firstly, a risk control model of line overload is proposed considering the uncertainties of loads,generator outputs and wind powers. The generation cost and security level of system associated with overload can be optimally controlled. Then path following interior point method is employed to carry out the optimal control. Finally the simulation is made on the modified IEEE-30 bus system. Results show that the risk of line overload is effectively reduced through the optimization of control variables.

生成式人工智能赋能数字检察的路径、风险与纾解

数字时代,生成式人工智能技术成为发展人工智能刑事司法的重要技术力量。理论层面,数字检察改革以数字技术推动法律监督模式改革为核心的理念与生成式人工智能技术具备融合基础。应用路径层面,生成式人工智能可从构建应对预测性侦查的法律监督模式、完善类案监督机制、辅助认罪认罚量刑建议程序、赋能检察机关参与社会治理方面为数字检察改革提供技术支撑。由于技术的两面性,在风险层面,生成式人工智能数字检察可能会引发司法“工具主义”、技术风险因素、非传统国家安全风险问题,可从保证检察人员的司法亲历性、搭建联盟区块链破除数据壁垒、算法监管与安全法治体系建设并重等路径纾解应用风险,推动生成式人工智能赋能数字检察,助力检察机关成为实现数字时代国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要力量。

基于Pareto蚁群算法的双目标路径规划研究

针对复杂建筑环境人员应急疏散单一路径不能满足火灾环境变化需求的问题,基于改进蚁群算法,结合Pareto双目标解集思想,提出一种组合优化解集的双目标蚁群算法,通过排序优化的思想,实现人员多路径动态疏散规划。在构造Pareto解集的阶段协同考虑疏散路径长度以及火灾风险程度2个优化目标,计算各个解之间的支配关系。利用排序优化蚁群算法的正反馈机制将各组解的信息素按一定比例作为最优路径信息素的积累,加快解集的寻找。最后将其与传统双目标蚁群算法相比较,结果表明:优化后的双目标算法更加适合复杂建筑人员疏散路径规划问题,在寻找多组满足要求解的同时展示目标之间的利弊关系,供决策者选择合适的路径,提高疏散效率。

基于危险天气不确定性的最小风险路径规划方法

为降低飞行过程中遭遇危险天气的概率,同时避免大范围绕飞导致的路径与耗油增加,针对航路中的雷暴、积冰和颠簸天气,使用数值预报和概率预报,面向航前飞行计划,提出一种基于危险天气不确定性的最小风险路径规划方法.首先,基于概率预报数据使用配料法和C-F模型计算雷暴发生概率,基于数值预报数据计算积冰预测指数和颠簸预测指数;然后,融合多类型危险天气,提出一种具备风险标识的栅格化地图;在此基础上,改进传统路径最短的规划算法,构建以风险最小化为目标的Dijkstra和A^(*)算法;最后,使用2023年4月3日华中地区强对流天气预测数据建立风险地图,使用上述改进算法与传统Dijkstra、A^(*)和RRT算法进行路径规划并对比分析.结果表明,传统Dijkstra和A^(*)算法可计算得到最短飞行路径,而改进的A^(*)算法可计算得到总风险最小路径;若综合考虑飞行风险与路径长度,改进的Dijkstra算法最为适合.

结合STPA和DEMATEL-ISM的民机起落架收放系统风险研究

为从系统整体角度完成对起落架收放系统的风险辨识和影响分析,将系统理论过程分析(Systematic Theory Process Analysis,STPA)与决策实验室分析-解释结构模型(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Interpretive Structural Modeling,DEMATEL-ISM)相结合来开展分析。首先,定义事故和系统级危险,以民机进近阶段放下起落架为例,运用STPA完成对风险因素的系统化辨识;其次,基于最大平均熵减(Maximum Mean De-entropy,MMDE)算法帮助DEMATEL-ISM模型确定阈值,完成对风险因素影响的重要性分析并识别可能引发系统级危险的风险传递路径,据此挖掘关键致因场景,以给出风险预防建议。结果显示:线路性能退化或失效、位置作动控制组件(Position Action Control Unit,PACU)核心处理器故障为关键原因因素,收放作动筒作动异常、机组成员操作不当、起落架指示灯显示异常、起落架液压选择阀作动异常、PACU信息接收有误为关键结果因素,这些因素均涉及多条可能引发系统级危险的风险传递路径,应予以重点控制。

山区铁路隧道钻爆法施工安全风险演化路径及防控研究

山区铁路隧道钻爆法施工安全风险突出,探索安全风险演化路径并提出安全风险防控措施,对减少安全事故发生意义重大。针对山区铁路隧道钻爆法施工特点,运用文本挖掘分析历史安全事故资料、铁路标准规范资料、现场安全风险评估报告、相关研究文献资料等,结合“4M1E”理论和专家经验识别山区铁路隧道钻爆法施工主要安全风险因素和安全风险事件。采用质性分析法,结合现场调研和专家访谈,提取安全风险因素间、安全风险事件间、安全风险因素及事件间相互关系,构建山区铁路隧道钻爆法施工安全风险演化网络模型。基于风险演化理论、复杂网络理论等,利用度中心性、介数中心性、聚类系数、特征向量中心性、中间中心度等多项指标分析山区铁路隧道钻爆法施工安全风险演化网络节点重要度、边的关键性,从而确定关键链演化路径,并提出安全风险防控措施。研究结果表明:山区铁路隧道钻爆法施工安全风险包括人员、设备、技术、管理、环境5类共41个主要安全风险因素和塌方、突泥涌水等6个主要安全风险事件,确定了安全风险演化网络中8个关键节点、20条关键边和3条关键链,针对关键链风险演化路径提出了安全风险防控措施,为提高山区铁路隧道钻爆法施工安全风险管理水平提供参考。

生成式人工智能赋能高校招生模式创新:价值逻辑、实现路径与潜在风险

生成式人工智能(AIGC)为数字化时代高校招生模式创新提供技术支持,赋能高校重塑招考目标、升级招生方式、更新招生内容和落实招生正义,提升高校招生的科学性与专业性。同时,AIGC所具有的开放源码、多模态模型、内容创作和生成算法等高阶智能功能可推动招生理念转为高校与学生的双向选择,招生考查方式走向多元工具融合并用,招生考查内容转向综合立体考查,招生指导迈向精准适配。然而,高校过度将AIGC引入招生工作亦会产生风险,包括主体异化下的招生偏见、效率逻辑下的考查工具单一、技术依赖下的考查内容泛化和数据共享下的教育数据泄漏等。应强化制度建设、推动招生考查技术研发、提升招生工作人员的智能素养等,以消解过度引入AIGC后可能引发的潜在风险。

新时代高校网络意识形态风险治理路径研究

互联网是高校网络意识形态工作最前沿的主阵地、主战场,管好、用好互联网是新形势下高校网络意识形态风险治理的关键。高校网络意识形态风险治理有助于引导学生形成正确的价值导向、落实学校立德树人的根本任务、营造风清气正的网络环境、推进高校治理体系和治理能力的现代化。高校网络意识形态治理在取得成效的同时仍面临风险挑战,需要落实高校网络意识形态治理责任制、加强网络意识形态话语权建设、加强高校网络意识形态多元主体协同治理、完善高校网络意识风险防控机制和考评机制,进一步推进新时代高校网络意识风险治理。

收缩型历史城镇的系统风险评估及保护路径——以渝东地区典型历史城镇为例

在分析收缩型历史城镇系统风险构成的基础上,探索收缩型历史城镇系统风险评估方法,并以渝东地区典型历史城镇为例开展评估。结果显示,收缩型历史城镇整体上呈现“功能—物质—文化”螺旋式负向转化的规律,个体呈现“空心化、异质化、弃置化”的风险分异特征,并分别引发了活力、特色、消亡的危机。根据评估结果,从要素分类治理、风险分级响应两个方面提出收缩型历史城镇的保护路径,以期为破解历史城镇收缩困境、化解其系统风险提供借鉴。

自动化行政法律风险及优化路径研究

将互联网、大数据、云计算、人工智能等数字技术广泛应用于政府自动化行政过程之中,对推进政府决策科学化、社会治理精准化、公共服务高效化,实现政府治理信息化与法治化的深度融合,具有十分重要的作用和意义。通过自动化法律风险的样态观察,自动化行政存在算法引发的风险、责任认定引发的风险及数据和个人隐私引发的风险等法律风险。风险存在的主要原因在于存在过程不确定性、结果偏向性的算法黑箱困境,以及新技术应用导致“工具思维”的依赖盲从和传统“权力-权利”观的失衡等带来的思想冲击。为化解自动化行政法律风险,提出优化路径:明确自动化行政责任划分,唤醒人的主体意识,于责任承担层面需严格划定责任性质;保障行政相对人的程序参与权,并对其权利进行救济;算法全透明公开,使其更加符合行政法中程序正当的要求;设立独立审查监督机构,防止行政机关不作为或权力滥用和数据流失。

元宇宙安全的内涵及治理路径研究

为明晰元宇宙安全的内涵及治理路径,丰富和完善元宇宙安全理论,立足大安全格局,提出元宇宙安全概念,并分析元宇宙安全的基本特征。在此基础上,提出元宇宙安全的治理路径。结果表明:元宇宙安全是指元宇宙的重塑时空稳定、社会文明进阶与人类福祉提升免遭不利因素影响的状态或能力,它具有相对性、复杂性、震荡性、广泛性、即时性、关联性、公共性与多面性8个基本特征。元宇宙安全治理应统筹元宇宙发展和安全,坚持共商共建共享原则,构建技术-规则-社会三位一体治理模式,着力提升元宇宙数字安全能力。