Set Pair Analysis (SPA) is a new methodology to describe and process system uncertainty. It is different from stochastic or fuzzy methods in reasoning and operation, and it has been applied in many areas recently. In ...Set Pair Analysis (SPA) is a new methodology to describe and process system uncertainty. It is different from stochastic or fuzzy methods in reasoning and operation, and it has been applied in many areas recently. In this paper, the application of SPA in risk ranking is presented, which includes review of risk ranking, introduction of Connecting Degree (CD) that is a key role in SPA., Arithmetic and Tendency Grade (TG) of CDs, and a risk ranking approach proposed. Finally a case analysis is presented to illustrate the reasonability of this approach. It is found that this approach is very convenient to operate, while the ranking result is more comprehensible.展开更多
A number of risk ranking systems for contaminated sites have been developed by different jurisdictions. While the intent of each of these systems is similar, it is not clear whether they provide results that are compa...A number of risk ranking systems for contaminated sites have been developed by different jurisdictions. While the intent of each of these systems is similar, it is not clear whether they provide results that are comparable. In this paper, 20 contaminated sites are used to assess the United States’ Preliminary Assessment (PA) system, Sweden’s Methods for Inventories of Contaminated Sites (MICS) and New Zealand’s Risk Screening System (RSS) methods. The results were compared with each other and with Canada’s National Classification System for Contaminated Sites (NCSCS) as well as preliminary quantitative risk assessment (PQRA) results. The objectives were to determine if the systems yield similar recommendations regarding further actions, and to assess if there are acceptable correlations between different methods. The study concludes that PA, MICS and NCSCS methods can achieve similar conclusions, although there is a certain degree of inconsistency that is present, RSS can distinguish the very high and very low risk sites and, acceptable correlations exists among the methods except for PA and PQRA.展开更多
Security measures for a computer network system can be enhanced with better understanding the vulnerabilities and their behavior over the time. It is observed that the effects of vulnerabilities vary with the time ove...Security measures for a computer network system can be enhanced with better understanding the vulnerabilities and their behavior over the time. It is observed that the effects of vulnerabilities vary with the time over their life cycle. In the present study, we have presented a new methodology to assess the magnitude of the risk of a vulnerability as a “Risk Rank”. To derive this new methodology well known Markovian approach with a transition probability matrix is used including relevant risk factors for discovered and recorded vulnerabilities. However, in addition to observing the risk factor for each vulnerability individually we have introduced the concept of ranking vulnerabilities at a particular time taking a similar approach to Google Page Rank Algorithm. New methodology is exemplified using a simple model of computer network with three recorded vulnerabilities with their CVSS scores.展开更多
The presence of pesticide residues in pears is a serious health concern. This study presents the results from a 2-year investigation （2013-2014） that used gas chromatography, GS/MS and UPLC/MS-MS to measure the leve...The presence of pesticide residues in pears is a serious health concern. This study presents the results from a 2-year investigation （2013-2014） that used gas chromatography, GS/MS and UPLC/MS-MS to measure the levels of 104 pesti- cides in 310 pear samples. In 93.2% of the samples, 43 pesticides were detected, of which the maximum residue levels （MRLs） were exceeded in 2.6% of the samples. Multiple residues （two to eight compounds） were present in 69.7% of the samples; one sample contained nine pesticides and one sample contained 10. Only 6.8% of the samples did not contain residues. To assess the health risks, the pesticide residue data have been combined with daily pear consumption data for children and adult populations. A deterministic model was used to assess the chronic and acute exposures based on the Joint Meeting on Pesticide Residues （JMPR） method. A potential acute risk was demonstrated for children in the case of bifenthrin, which was found to be present at 105.36% of the acute reference dose （ARfD） value. The long- term exposure of the Chinese consumer to pesticide residues through the consumption of raw pears was far below the acceptable daily intake （ADI） criterion. Additionally, the matrix ranking scheme was used to classify risk subgroups of pesticides and pear samples. In general, 95.5% of samples were deemed to be safe and nine pesticides were classified as being of a relatively high risk. The findings indicated that the occurrence of pesticide residues in pears should not be considered a serious public health problem. Nevertheless, a more detailed study is required for vulnerable consumer groups, especially children. Continuous monitoring of pesticides in pears and tighter regulation of pesticide residue standards are recommended.展开更多
Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objec...Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objective generally includes three elements: time, cost, quality. Risk occurrin g in the projects will affect these three factors to some various degrees in the end. There are different emphases in each stage and integrated balanced goals b etween the three factors. A large complex engineering project generally consists of several stages each of which has variable objective combinations leading to variable important risks. In order to achieve strategic goals on the schedule under the restriction of lim ited resources, the paper gives the analysis of the so-called risk identificati on-assessment process on the basis of objective orientation. In this paper the set of involved mostly hazards is presented in terms of given objective weight v ector, and so is the model of risk ranking .By reducing the range of risk factor s step by step, risk manager could pay more attention to important ventures and effectively control of them. According to different objective combination at different stages, primary risk f actor sets at different stages are given. With the probability and their various effects to project objectives, evaluation of these sets is made aiming to r educing of the scope of risks and providing decision maker with a better decisio ns support. Successful projects are those, which focus on the relevant business objectives t hroughout the whole process and seek to information integration across project l ife cycle. This paper also introduces the idea of real time process of risk iden tification-assessment and presents a flow chart as a demonstration.展开更多
Guanting Reservoir, one of the drinking water supply sources of Beijing, suffers from water eutrophication. It is mainly supplied by Guishui River. Thus, to investigate the reasons of phosphorus （P） loss and improve...Guanting Reservoir, one of the drinking water supply sources of Beijing, suffers from water eutrophication. It is mainly supplied by Guishui River. Thus, to investigate the reasons of phosphorus （P） loss and improve the P management strategies in Guishui River watershed are important for the safety of drinking water in this region. In this study, a Revised Field P Ranking Scheme （PRS） was developed to reflect the field vulnerability of P loss at the field scale based on the Field PRS. In this new scheme, six factors are included, and each one was assigned a relative weight and a determination method. The affecting factors were classified into transport factors and source factors, and, the standards of environmental quality on surface water and soil erosion classification and degradation of the China were used in this scheme. By the new scheme, thirty-four fields in the Guishui River were categorized as ＂low＂, ＂medium＂ or ＂high＂ potential for P loss into the runoff. The results showed that the P loss risks of orchard and vegetable fields were higher than that of corn and soybean fields. The source factors were the main factors to affect P loss from the study area. In the study area, controlling P input and improving P usage efficiency are critical to decrease P loss. Based on the results, it was suggested that more attention should be paid on the fields of vegetable and orchard since they have extremely high usage rate of P and high soil test of P. Compared with P surplus by field measurements, the Revised Field PRS was more suitable for reflecting the characteristics of fields, and had higher potential capacity to identify critical source areas of P loss than PRS.展开更多
文摘Set Pair Analysis (SPA) is a new methodology to describe and process system uncertainty. It is different from stochastic or fuzzy methods in reasoning and operation, and it has been applied in many areas recently. In this paper, the application of SPA in risk ranking is presented, which includes review of risk ranking, introduction of Connecting Degree (CD) that is a key role in SPA., Arithmetic and Tendency Grade (TG) of CDs, and a risk ranking approach proposed. Finally a case analysis is presented to illustrate the reasonability of this approach. It is found that this approach is very convenient to operate, while the ranking result is more comprehensible.
文摘A number of risk ranking systems for contaminated sites have been developed by different jurisdictions. While the intent of each of these systems is similar, it is not clear whether they provide results that are comparable. In this paper, 20 contaminated sites are used to assess the United States’ Preliminary Assessment (PA) system, Sweden’s Methods for Inventories of Contaminated Sites (MICS) and New Zealand’s Risk Screening System (RSS) methods. The results were compared with each other and with Canada’s National Classification System for Contaminated Sites (NCSCS) as well as preliminary quantitative risk assessment (PQRA) results. The objectives were to determine if the systems yield similar recommendations regarding further actions, and to assess if there are acceptable correlations between different methods. The study concludes that PA, MICS and NCSCS methods can achieve similar conclusions, although there is a certain degree of inconsistency that is present, RSS can distinguish the very high and very low risk sites and, acceptable correlations exists among the methods except for PA and PQRA.
文摘Security measures for a computer network system can be enhanced with better understanding the vulnerabilities and their behavior over the time. It is observed that the effects of vulnerabilities vary with the time over their life cycle. In the present study, we have presented a new methodology to assess the magnitude of the risk of a vulnerability as a “Risk Rank”. To derive this new methodology well known Markovian approach with a transition probability matrix is used including relevant risk factors for discovered and recorded vulnerabilities. However, in addition to observing the risk factor for each vulnerability individually we have introduced the concept of ranking vulnerabilities at a particular time taking a similar approach to Google Page Rank Algorithm. New methodology is exemplified using a simple model of computer network with three recorded vulnerabilities with their CVSS scores.
基金financially supported by the National Program for Quality and Safety Risk Assessment of Agricultural Products of China (GJFP2014002, GJFP2015002)the Core Research Budget of the Non-Profit Governmental Research Institution of China (0032014013)
文摘The presence of pesticide residues in pears is a serious health concern. This study presents the results from a 2-year investigation （2013-2014） that used gas chromatography, GS/MS and UPLC/MS-MS to measure the levels of 104 pesti- cides in 310 pear samples. In 93.2% of the samples, 43 pesticides were detected, of which the maximum residue levels （MRLs） were exceeded in 2.6% of the samples. Multiple residues （two to eight compounds） were present in 69.7% of the samples; one sample contained nine pesticides and one sample contained 10. Only 6.8% of the samples did not contain residues. To assess the health risks, the pesticide residue data have been combined with daily pear consumption data for children and adult populations. A deterministic model was used to assess the chronic and acute exposures based on the Joint Meeting on Pesticide Residues （JMPR） method. A potential acute risk was demonstrated for children in the case of bifenthrin, which was found to be present at 105.36% of the acute reference dose （ARfD） value. The long- term exposure of the Chinese consumer to pesticide residues through the consumption of raw pears was far below the acceptable daily intake （ADI） criterion. Additionally, the matrix ranking scheme was used to classify risk subgroups of pesticides and pear samples. In general, 95.5% of samples were deemed to be safe and nine pesticides were classified as being of a relatively high risk. The findings indicated that the occurrence of pesticide residues in pears should not be considered a serious public health problem. Nevertheless, a more detailed study is required for vulnerable consumer groups, especially children. Continuous monitoring of pesticides in pears and tighter regulation of pesticide residue standards are recommended.
文摘Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objective generally includes three elements: time, cost, quality. Risk occurrin g in the projects will affect these three factors to some various degrees in the end. There are different emphases in each stage and integrated balanced goals b etween the three factors. A large complex engineering project generally consists of several stages each of which has variable objective combinations leading to variable important risks. In order to achieve strategic goals on the schedule under the restriction of lim ited resources, the paper gives the analysis of the so-called risk identificati on-assessment process on the basis of objective orientation. In this paper the set of involved mostly hazards is presented in terms of given objective weight v ector, and so is the model of risk ranking .By reducing the range of risk factor s step by step, risk manager could pay more attention to important ventures and effectively control of them. According to different objective combination at different stages, primary risk f actor sets at different stages are given. With the probability and their various effects to project objectives, evaluation of these sets is made aiming to r educing of the scope of risks and providing decision maker with a better decisio ns support. Successful projects are those, which focus on the relevant business objectives t hroughout the whole process and seek to information integration across project l ife cycle. This paper also introduces the idea of real time process of risk iden tification-assessment and presents a flow chart as a demonstration.
基金Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2005CB121107)the Innovation Research Group of National Basic Research Program of China(No.2005).
文摘Guanting Reservoir, one of the drinking water supply sources of Beijing, suffers from water eutrophication. It is mainly supplied by Guishui River. Thus, to investigate the reasons of phosphorus （P） loss and improve the P management strategies in Guishui River watershed are important for the safety of drinking water in this region. In this study, a Revised Field P Ranking Scheme （PRS） was developed to reflect the field vulnerability of P loss at the field scale based on the Field PRS. In this new scheme, six factors are included, and each one was assigned a relative weight and a determination method. The affecting factors were classified into transport factors and source factors, and, the standards of environmental quality on surface water and soil erosion classification and degradation of the China were used in this scheme. By the new scheme, thirty-four fields in the Guishui River were categorized as ＂low＂, ＂medium＂ or ＂high＂ potential for P loss into the runoff. The results showed that the P loss risks of orchard and vegetable fields were higher than that of corn and soybean fields. The source factors were the main factors to affect P loss from the study area. In the study area, controlling P input and improving P usage efficiency are critical to decrease P loss. Based on the results, it was suggested that more attention should be paid on the fields of vegetable and orchard since they have extremely high usage rate of P and high soil test of P. Compared with P surplus by field measurements, the Revised Field PRS was more suitable for reflecting the characteristics of fields, and had higher potential capacity to identify critical source areas of P loss than PRS.
