Influencing Factors and Prediction of Risk of Returning to Ecological Poverty in Liupan Mountain Region,China

China has resolved its overall regional poverty in 2020 by attaining moderate societal prosperity.The country has entered a new development stage designed to achieve its second centenary goal.However,ecological fragility and risk susceptibility have increased the risk of returning to ecological poverty.In this paper,the Liupan Mountain Region of China was used as a case study,and the counties were used as the scale to reveal the spatiotempora differentiation and influcing factors of the risk of returning to poverty in study area.The indicator data for returning to ecological poverty from 2011-2020 were collected and summarized in three dimensions:ecological,economic and social.The autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)time series and exponential smoothing method(ES)were used to predict the multidimensional indicators of returning to ecological poverty for 61 counties(districts)in the Liupan Mountain Region for 2021-2030.The back propagation neural network(BPNN)and geographic information system(GIS)were used to generate the spatial distribution and time variation for the index of the risk of returning to ecological poverty(RREP index).The results show that 1)ecological factors were the main factors in the risk of returning to ecological poverty in Liupan Mountain Region.2)The RREP index for the 61 counties(districts)exhibited a downward trend from 2021-2030.The RREP index declined more in medium-and high-risk areas than in low-risk areas.From 2021 to 2025,the RREP index exhibited a slight downward trend.From 2026 to2030,the RREP index was expected to decline faster,especially from 2029-2030.3)Based on the RREP index,it can be roughly divided into three types,namely,the high-risk areas,the medium-risk areas,and the low-risk areas.The natural resource conditions in lowrisk areas of returning to ecological poverty,were better than those in medium-and high-risk areas.

Using Return and Risk Model for Choosing Perfect Portfolio Applied Study in Cairo Stock Exchange

Modern financial theory, commonly known as portfolio theory, provides an analytical framework for the investment decision to be made under uncertainty. It is a well-established proposition in portfolio theory that whenever there is an imperfect correlation between returns risk is reduced by maintaining only a portion of wealth in any asset, or by selecting a portfolio according to expected returns and correlations between returns. The major improvement of the portfolio approaches over prior received theory is the incorporation of 1) the riskiness of an asset and 2) the addition from investing in any asset. The theme of this paper is to discuss how to propose a new mathematical model like that provided by Markowitz, which helps in choosing a nearly perfect portfolio and an efficient input/output. Besides applying this model to reality, the researcher uses game theory, stochastic and linear programming to provide the model proposed and then uses this model to select a perfect portfolio in the Cairo Stock Exchange. The results are fruitful and the researcher considers this model a new contribution to previous models.

Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall and Flood Risks in Yopougon, Abidjan, Southeast Côte d’Ivoire from 1971 to 2022

Yopougon, located in the western part of the Autonomous District of Abidjan, is the most heavily populated municipality in Côte d’Ivoire. However, this area is prone to floods and landslides during the rainy season. The study aims to assess recent flood risks in the municipality of Yopougon of the Autonomous District of Abidjan. To achieve this objective, the study analyzed two types of data: daily rainfall from 1971 to 2022 and parameters derived from a Numerical Field and Altitude Model (NFAM). The study examined six rainfall parameters using statistical analysis and combined land use maps obtained from the NFAM of Yopougon. The results indicated that, in 67% of cases, extreme rainfall occurred mainly between week 3 of May and week 1 of July. The peak of extreme rainfall was observed in week 2 of June with 15% of cases. These are critical periods of flood risks in the Autonomous District of Abidjan, especially in Yopougon. In addition, there was variability of rainfall parameters in the Autonomous District of Abidjan. This was characterized by a drop of annual and seasonal rainfall, and an increase of numbers of rainy days. Flood risks in Yopougon are, therefore, due to the regular occurrence of rainy events. Recent floods in Yopougon were caused by normal rains ranging from 55 millimeters (mm) to 153 mm with a return period of less than five years. Abnormal heavy rains of a case study on June 20-21, 2022 in Yopougon were detected by outputs global climate models. Areas of very high risk of flood covered 18% of Yopougon, while 31% were at high risk. Climate information from this study can assist authorities to take in advance adaptation and management measures.

A Monte Carlo-based framework for risk-return analysis in mineral prospectivity mapping

Quantification of a mineral prospectivity mapping(MPM)heavily relies on geological,geophysical and geochemical analysis,which combines various evidence layers into a single map.However,MPM is subject to considerable uncertainty due to lack of understanding of the metallogenesis and limited spatial data samples.In this paper,we provide a framework that addresses how uncertainty in the evidence layers can be quantified and how such uncertainty is propagated to the prediction of mineral potential.More specifically,we use Monte Carlo simulation to jointly quantify uncertainties on all uncertain evidence variables,categorized into geological,geochemical and geophysical.On stochastically simulated sets of the multiple input layers,logistic regression is employed to produce different quantifications of the mineral potential in terms of probability.Uncertainties we address lie in the downscaling of magnetic data to a scale that makes such data comparable with known mineral deposits.Additionally,we deal with the limited spatial sampling of geochemistry that leads to spatial uncertainty.Next,we deal with the conceptual geological uncertainty related to how the spatial extent of the influence of evidential geological features such as faults,granite intrusions and sedimentary formations.Finally,we provide a novel way to interpret the established uncertainty in a risk-return analysis to decide areas with high potential but at the same time low uncertainty on that potential.Our methods are illustrated and compared with traditional deterministic MPM on a real case study of prospecting skarn Fe deposition in southwestern Fujian,China.

Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investment. By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return, together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investment is established. The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

A Study on Equivalence of Return-risk and Risk-return Models for Investment Strategies

1 Introduction It is known that the Capital Asset Pricing Model was first proposed by Markowitz and he was awarded the Nobel Prize

Risk Assessment and Simulation on Storm Flood of the 100-Year Return Period in Hunhe River Basin

Based on the meteorological and geographic information data, with statistical method and the FloodArea model, the extreme daily rainfall of the 100-year return period in Hunhe River basin was established, through the simulation of rainstorm and flood disaster, characteristics of flood depth in warning spot Cangshi village in the upstream of the river were analysed, and possible effect on community economy was also evaluated. Results showed that, the precipitation of 100-year return period occurred, the flood depth has been below 1.0 meter in the most areas of Hunhe River basin, the depth was between 1.0 meter and 2.5 meters in the part areas of Hunhe River basin, and the flood depth has been exceed 2.5 meters in a small part of Hunhe River basin. After the beginning of precipitation, the flood was concentrated in the upper reaches of the river. With the accumulation of precipitation and the passage of time, the flood pools into midstream and downstream. Precipitation lasted for 24 hours, the warning spot was flooded in the beginning of precipitation. With the accumulation of precipitation, water level of the river increases gradually. The depth of warning spot has passed 1.0 meter at the 07 time of the whole process, and the maximum value of flood depth at warning spot was 1.083 meters that occurred at the 19 time. The flood depth of warning spot decreased gradually after the precipitation stopping, and the depth has been below 0.2 meters, the flood of upstream ended. Up to the end of the upstream flood process, in the whole river, about one million five hundred and sixty thousand people were affected by flooding, and thirty-eight billion and two hundred million RMB of gross domestic product were lost, in addition, dry land and paddy field were affected greatly, but woodland and grassland were less affected.

恩施州乡村旅游地农户返贫风险评估及其影响因素研究

有效预防返贫风险是后脱贫时代脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴战略有效衔接的关键.该研究将风险的概率纳入返贫风险评估体系,从发生概率和破坏程度两方面综合评估其返贫风险,系统反映返贫风险的可能性和破坏性,进而探究其影响因素.研究发现:1)农户各维度的返贫风险水平从高到低依次为个体风险、家庭风险、社会风险和自然风险,农户受家庭风险和个体风险影响较大,存在明显的内生性、个体化特征.2)依据风险的发生概率和破坏程度,返贫风险可分为“高概率-高破坏”型、“高概率-低破坏”型和“低概率-低破坏”型3种类型,其中,“高概率-高破坏”型风险包括非农就业能力和教育负担,返贫风险指数最高,对农户返贫的威胁最大.3)抚养人数和户主的文化程度等家庭特征是影响返贫风险的主要因素,乡村旅游扶贫开发模式不同导致农户的返贫风险存在显著差异.在返贫防治实践中,应因户施策,重点防治内生性返贫,同时要根据返贫风险发生概率及破坏程度的差异,制定合理的返贫风险预警机制及防治措施.

气候风险对企业价值的影响

极端天气事件频发不但给全球经济增长与金融稳定带来了严峻挑战,而且实体企业也受到多维度的负向影响。科学度量并缓解气候风险对企业价值的负向冲击已成为企业风险管理的重要内容,亦是实现经济可持续发展的重要微观基础。该研究以2012—2022年中国A股上市公司为样本,通过文本分析法刻画企业面临的气候风险,运用固定效应模型实证检验了气候风险对企业价值的影响及其机制。研究发现:①气候风险对企业价值具有显著的负向影响,这一结论在经过一系列稳健性检验和处理内生性问题后依然稳健。②企业收益率和企业信用风险均是气候风险负向冲击企业价值的有效渠道,气候风险可通过降低企业的资产收益率以及增加企业的信用风险进而对企业价值产生负向影响。③气候风险对企业价值的负向影响因行业特性、区域位置和企业规模差异而具有异质性。气候风险对重污染行业企业、非东部地区企业以及中小型企业的负向影响更大,上述企业经营过程中更应注重气候风险所带来的负面影响。④企业绿色经营、提升风险管理与内控能力、机构投资者持股,有助于抑制气候风险对企业价值的不利影响。调节效应研究发现,企业ESG表现、企业风险管理能力、企业内部控制水平以及机构投资者持股比例对气候风险与企业价值之间的关系具有正向调节作用,显著抑制了气候风险对企业价值的负面影响。因此,企业应密切关注气候风险冲击,建立气候风险管理的长效机制,逐步强化对可持续发展理念的认知、提升风险管理与内控水平,多措并举加强对气候风险的管理。

基于深度森林算法的返贫风险预警及防范

为巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接,打好实施乡村振兴战略的基础,文章选取2020年中国乡村振兴综合调查(CRRS)数据为样本,以可持续生计理论为指导构建返贫风险评价指标体系,使用集成学习的多种算法构建返贫风险预警模型。结果表明:各模型经过参数优化后,深度森林算法识别效果最佳,对返贫风险识别整体准确率为0.98,对构建动态返贫风险预警系统有一定的技术帮助;各地区不同风险等级生计资本存在显著差异性,应因地制宜出台返贫帮扶政策,并为精准帮扶防范返贫提出相应建议。

乡村集体土地制度对返贫风险治理的影响及优化路径

乡村集体土地制度是一个承载着历史印记的制度安排,其变迁对中国农村经济社会发展产生了深远的影响。在乡村振兴战略背景下,乡村集体土地制度对治理返贫风险尤为关键。当前,乡村集体土地使用存在权属不清、流转不畅、利用效率低下等问题,制约了乡村经济的进一步发展。文章基于这些问题分析了乡村集体土地制度对返贫风险治理的多维效应,包括收入效应、就业效应、社会效应和环境效应,并针对乡村集体土地使用的问题和改革的局限性,从完善集体土地所有权制度、使用权制度、经营权制度,创新土地利用方式,强化土地空间规划布局等方面提出了一系列治理路径设计,以提高土地使用效率,保障农民权益,有效降低返贫风险,激活乡村内生动力,增强乡村发展韧性。

基于县域乡村振兴视角的甘青川藏族聚居县返贫风险研究

文章旨在对甘青川藏族聚居县的返贫风险进行研究。样本数据和资料源于对甘青川藏族聚居县精准扶贫及脱贫工作的田野调查。通过调研甘青川三省藏族聚居县的脱贫攻坚工作,从中总结出一些具有地方特色的精准扶贫模式,如迭部县“特色产业模式”、泽库县“拉格日模式”、若尔盖县“跨地域协作模式”,发现在实践层面,甘青川藏族聚居县存在扶贫项目的立项随意性的问题、部分脱贫技能培训脱离实际的问题、易地搬迁扶贫模式带来的问题。文章通过返贫风险分析,针对巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果与乡村振兴有效衔接的实现路径提出相关意见建议。

四川涉藏地区返贫风险治理与乡村振兴衔接机制探讨

四川涉藏地区是原典型的深度贫困区,存在诸多诱发返贫风险的因素。返贫风险治理是乡村振兴建设的一个重要任务,二者衔接推进具有重要的现实意义。返贫风险治理同乡村振兴衔接在理论逻辑上,目标、主体、内容和制度上有机契合;在现实价值上,对巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,促进乡村振兴等具有协同推进作用。通过调查研究认为,四川涉藏地区当前存在产业性、能动性、文化性、生态性和组织性等返贫风险。鉴于此,应创建产业升级机制、完善能力提升机制、优化文化繁荣机制、健全生态保护机制、强化组织治理机制,实现返贫风险治理与产业、人才、文化、生态和组织振兴等的衔接,有效巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,促进乡村振兴建设。

乡村振兴背景下脱贫农户返贫风险治理

在可行能力理论和可持续生计框架的基础上,构建了“返贫风险识别-返贫风险应对-可行能力发展”的分析框架。在此框架的指导下,基于云南省昭通市M跨县搬迁安置区的实地调研,分析脱贫农户返贫风险治理中存在的问题,并提出优化路径。研究发现,脱贫农户面临多重返贫风险,生计转型困难;安置区产业与就业不匹配,脱贫农户缺乏就近就业机会;基层网格员数据采集困难,动态监测评估指标滞后;脱贫农户内生动力不足,可行能力发展困难。针对这些问题,应建立“以建立防止返贫动态监测机制为基础,以促进脱贫农户增收为根本要求,以推动县域产业发展为主攻方向,以增强脱贫农户可行能力、实现全面发展为核心”的返贫风险治理体系,促进巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果与乡村振兴的有效衔接。

消费者风险厌恶的运费险分担机制与供应链定价研究

考虑消费者的退货行为、风险厌恶态度和运费险价值敏感,建立零售商承担、消费者承担、零售商与消费者共同承担、零售商与制造商共同承担4种不同运费险承担方式的Stackelberg价格博弈模型,研究供应链的定价决策和在线零售商的最优退货运费险策略。研究表明:低退货率和高运费险敏感性有助于提高供应链的整体利润;低退货率时,在线零售商主动为消费者购买运费险优于消费者自行购买;运费险的分担机制不能实现供应链协调。

儿童肝移植受者重返重症监护室的危险因素分析

目的探讨儿童肝移植受者重返重症监护室(ICU)的危险因素,为儿童肝移植术后临床决策提供参考。方法回顾性分析2019至2021年上海交通大学医学院附属仁济医院接受肝移植手术后所有转入ICU患儿的临床资料,统计住院期间重返ICU的情况,以及重返的原因。以1∶3比例匹配未发生重返ICU的患儿作为对照组,比较两组患儿基本信息、移植后转出ICU当天的生命体征及各项实验室指标、免疫抑制剂种类及药物浓度等。采用多因素Logistic回归分析探讨儿童肝移植受者重返ICU的危险因素。结果儿童肝移植术后ICU重返率为4.36%,其中48 h内重返率为16.00%,主要原因包括呼吸系统并发症、腹腔感染和肝血管栓塞。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,术后输注红细胞(OR=4.554,95%CI=1.743~11.901,P=0.002)、高血尿酸(OR=1.005,95%CI=1.001~1.009,P=0.014)是重返ICU的危险因素;高舒张压(OR=0.922,95%CI=0.885~0.960,P<0.001)和高总蛋白水平(OR=0.937,95%CI=0.891~0.986,P=0.012)是重返ICU的保护因素。结论术后输注红细胞、高血尿酸水平是儿童肝移植受者重返ICU的独立危险因素。

“双碳”背景下气候情绪对四川矿产行业影响路径及风险研究

本文以“双碳”为背景,研究气候风险对四川省矿产上市公司的影响。首先,本文以2014—2022年东方财富网络数据为样本,采用朴素贝叶斯模型构建气候情绪指数。其次,采用多元模型进一步研究气候情绪对四川省上市矿产公司总资产报酬率的影响。实证结果表明:本文构建的气候情绪指数与四川矿产上市公司的总资产报酬率存在显著正向关系;气候风险对不同公司类型影响不同,气候情绪对大规模矿产公司的总资产报酬率有显著的促进作用,而对小规模矿产公司总资产报酬率不存在显著影响。因此,为了更好地应对气候变化风险,矿业企业应积极实施低碳战略,主动披露排放信息,提高品牌价值,为长期发展创造新的竞争优势。

考虑消费者风险规避的供应链退货运费险与定价策略

针对线上买卖双方的退货运费承担纠纷,电商平台引入退货运费险来分摊商品退货风险,但宽松的退货政策又增加了消费者的退货行为。为此,将第三方保险公司引入制造商主导和网络零售商跟随的斯坦克尔伯格博弈中,考虑风险规避型消费者的退货行为和运费险敏感性,建立多方决策主体共同参与的卖家运费险、买家运费险和运费险共同分担等3种定价退货模型,研究网络零售商的定价决策和运费险策略。结果表明:消费者的风险规避态度有助于降低商品售价和运费险价格,提高市场需求和企业利润;运费险共同分担机制能够有效缓解客户流失;退货率较低时,消费者的运费险偏好有利于供应链总利润的增长。

借贷便利创新工具、资产收益率与商业银行信用风险

本文基于2014—2021年中国203家银行的非平衡面板数据,考察借贷便利创新工具对商业银行信用风险的影响。实证分析发现:借贷便利创新操作会显著增加商业银行信用风险,该结论在考虑内生性问题以及进行一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性检验显示,这一政策效应在区域性商业银行、规模较小的商业银行中表现得更为明显。中介效应模型检验表明,借贷便利创新工具通过抑制商业银行资产收益率的渠道增加信用风险。调节效应模型检验结果说明,资本监管力度和银行家乐观度的提高均会减弱借贷便利创新工具对商业银行信用风险的加剧效应。该研究结论对于中央银行适时适量地进行借贷便利操作和商业银行信用风险管理防控具有借鉴意义。

第三方负责回收的Downside-Risk闭环供应链协调性研究

以风险中性制造商、第三方物流服务商和具有下行风险特性的销售商组成的闭环供应链系统为背景,证明了在Downside-Risk约束下收益费用共享契约不能使闭环供应链协调。通过将补偿策略附加到该契约,设计了风险共享契约,既能满足下行风险约束,又保证供应链参与方利润均有增量,实现了Downside-Risk约束下闭环供应链的协调。最后通过应用算例说明了风险共享契约的有效性和可行性。