Risk-based water quality decision-making under small data using Bayesian network

A knowledge-based network for Section Yidong Bridge,Dongyang River,one tributary of Qiantang River,Zhejiang Province,China,is established in order to model water quality in areas under small data.Then,based on normal transformation of variables with routine monitoring data and normal assumption of variables without routine monitoring data,a conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network is constructed.A "two-constraint selection" procedure is proposed to estimate potential parameter values under small data.Among all potential parameter values,the ones that are most probable are selected as the "representatives".Finally,the risks of pollutant concentration exceeding national water quality standards are calculated and pollution reduction decisions for decision-making reference are proposed.The final results show that conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network and "two-constraint selection" procedure are very useful in evaluating risks when there is limited data and can help managers to make sound decisions under small data.

Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Characteristics of groundwater and urban emergency water sources optimazation in Luoyang,China

The construction of emergency water sources is the material basis for ensuring urban water safety,and it is also an inherent requirement for maintaining social stability and development.The hydrogeological characteristics of groundwater in Luoyang City from the aspects of the division of groundwater aquifer groups,water yield property and groundwater dynamics were described in this paper.Two emergency water sources were selected on basis of comprehensively considering groundwater resources and ecological environmental effects,groundwater quality and exploitation technology,etc.Then it further analysed the aquifer types,water yield properties and groundwater recharge,runoff and discharge conditions of the two emergency water sources,and evaluate the groundwater resources quantity of the water sources.The results are that the shallow underground aquifer in Luoyang City is thick,coarse,and stable in lithology and thickness.The two water sources enjoy good exploitation potential and can be used as backup water sources to supply water in the event of a water source crisis.

Reservoir-induced landslides and risk control in Three Gorges Project on Yangtze River,China

The Three Gorges region in China was basically a geohazard-prone area prior to construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir （TGR）. After construction of the TGR, the water level was raised from 70 m to 175 m above sea level （ASL）, and annual reservoir regulation has caused a 30-m water level difference after impoundment of the TGR since September 2008. This paper first presents the spatiotemporal distribution of landslides in six periods of 175 m ASL trial impoundments from 2008 to 2014. The results show that the number of landslides sharply decreased from 273 at the initial stage to less than ten at the second stage of impoundment. Based on this, the reservoir-induced landslides in the TGR region can be roughly classified into five failure patterns, i.e. accumulation landslide, dip-slope landslide, reversed bedding landslide, rockfall, and karst breccia landslide. The accumulation landslides and dip-slope landslides account for more than 90%. Taking the Shuping accumulation landslide （a sliding mass volume of 20.7 × 106 m^3） in Zigui County and the Outang dip-slope landslide （a sliding mass volume of about 90 × 106 m^3） in Fengjie County as two typical cases, the mechanisms of reactivation of the two landslides are analyzed. The monitoring data and factor of safety （FOS） calculation show that the accumulation landslide is dominated by water level variation in the reservoir as most part of the mass body is under 175 m ASL, and the dip-slope landslide is controlled by the coupling effect of reservoir water level variation and precipitation as an extensive recharge area of rainfall from the rear and the front mass is below 175 m ASL. The characteristics of landslide-induced impulsive wave hazards after and before reservoir impoundment are studied, and the probability of occurrence of a landslide-induced impulsive wave hazard has increased in the reservoir region. Simulation results of the Ganjingzi landslide in Wushan County indicate the strong relationship between landslide-induced surge and water variation with high potential risk to shipping and residential areas. Regarding reservoir regulation in TGR when using a single index, i.e. 1-d water level variation, water resources are not well utilized, and there is also potential risk of disasters since 2008. In addition, various indices such as 1-d, 5-d, and 10-d water level variations are proposed for reservoir regulation. Finally, taking reservoir-induced landslides in June 2015 for example, the feasibility of the optimizing indices of water level variations is verified.

Study on Risk Assessment Method of Informal Landfill

At present,there are a large number of informal landfills to be treated all over the country. Under the condition of limited treatment funds,it is necessary to prioritize the treatment of informal landfills. In this paper,the pollution risk of waste dump,surrounding soil,groundwater and surface water is analyzed,and a set of comprehensive risk assessment method system of informal landfill is established,which could provide reference for decision making department deciding landfill disposal.

Risk assessment of agricultural green water security in Northeast China under climate change

Northeast China is an important base for grain production,dominated by rain-fed agriculture that relies on green water.However,in the context of global climate change,rising regional temperatures,changing precipitation patterns,and increasing drought frequency pose threats and challenges to agricultural green water security.This study provides a detailed assessment of the spatiotemporal characteristics and development trends of green water security risks in the Northeast region under the base period(2001-2020)and the future(2031-2090)climate change scenarios(SSP245 and SSP585)using the green water scarcity(GWS)index based on raster-scale crop spatial distribution data,Delta downscaling bias-corrected ERA5 data,and CMIP6 multimodal data.During the base period,the green water risk-free zone for dry crops is mainly distributed in the center and east of the Northeast region(72.4% of the total area),the low-risk zone is primarily located in the center(14.0%),and the medium-risk(8.3%)and high-risk(5.3%)zones are mostly in the west.Under SSP245 and SSP585 future climate change scenarios,the green water security risk shows an overall expansion from the west to the center and east,with the low-risk zone increasing to 21.6% and 23.8%,the medium-risk zone increasing to 16.0% and 17.9%,and the high-risk zone increasing to 6.9% and 6.8%,respectively.Considering dry crops with GWS greater than 0.1 as in need of irrigation,the irrigated area increases from 27.6%(base period)to 44.5%(SSP245)and 48.6%(SSP585),with corresponding increases in irrigation water requirement(IWR)of 4.64 and 5.92 billion m~3,respectively,which further exacerbates conflicts between supply and demand of agricultural water resources.In response to agricultural green water security risks,coping strategies such as evapotranspiration(ET)-based water resource management for dry crops and deficit irrigation are proposed.The results of this study can provide scientific basis and decision support for the development of Northeast irrigated agriculture and the construction planning of the national water network.

Comprehensive comparison of water quality risk and microbial ecology between new and old cast iron pipe distribution systems

The effects of cast iron pipe corrosion onwater quality risk and microbial ecology in drinking water distribution systems(DWDSs)were investigated.It was found that trihalomethane(THMs)concentration and antibiotic resistance genes(ARGs)increased sharply in the old DWDSs.Under the same residual chlorine concentration conditions,the adenosine triphos-phate concentration in the effluent of old DWDSs(Eff-old)was significantly higher than that in the effluent of newDWDSs.Moreover,stronger bioflocculation ability andweaker hy-drophobicity coexisted in the extracellular polymeric substances of Eff-old,meanwhile,iron particles could be well inserted into the structure of the biofilms to enhance the mechanical strength and stability of the biofilms,hence enhancing the formation of THMs.Old DWDSs significantly influenced the microbial community of bulk water and triggered stronger mi-crobial antioxidant systems response,resulting in higher ARGs abundance.Corroded cast iron pipes induced a unique interaction system of biofilms,chlorine,and corrosion prod-ucts.Therefore,as the age of cast iron pipes increases,the fluctuation of water quality and microbial ecology should be paid more attention to maintain the safety of tap water.

Water Shortage Risk Assessment in the Haihe River Basin, China

This paper studies water balance in the Haihe River Basin, China and assesses water shortage risk for the period 1994–2007. The authors identify that there is a water shortage problem in this area and propose that the non-intake water consumption （NIWC） is a very important water balance element. The NIWC in the Haihe River Basin flow is 5.91×109m3 in normal years. It was concluded from our evaluation that the water shortage risk during 1994–2007 was very high. Using international water risk assessment theory, multiyear risk indicators in Haihe River Basin can be calculated. Water risk rate, resiliency, stability, and vulnerability for the Haihe River Basin for the period 1994–2007 were 0.786, 0.000, 0.154 and 0.173 respectively. With the use of counter-force factors and adoption of different priorities to different water consumers, the water shortage risk can be decreased. The integrated water shortage risk indicators of the Haihe River Basin are 0.095–0.328. In this study, water availability from the South-North Water Diversion Project is also considered. By the year 2014, about 5×109m3 of water will be diverted from the Yangtse River, and the water shortage risk in the Haihe River Basin will drop from 0.229–0.297 to 0.152–0.234 under an inflow water frequency of 50%–75%. However, a risk of water shortage in this area will persist.

Water erosion risk mapping using derived parameters from digital elevation model and remotely sensed data

The aim of this study is to map the areas exposed to water erosion risks in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco around the Hassan-I dam.The methodology is based on the analysis of the water power index(WPI)as a hydrological parameter,the vegetation cover,and the litho-logical units.The WPI was derived from a Digital Elevation Model(DEM)and the litho-logical units and vegetation cover were derived from Advanced Land Imager sensor on the Earth Observing-1 satellite platform.The image was corrected from radiometric and atmospheric effects,and geometrically rectified using a DEM and grounds control points.These variables were integrated in a Geographical Information Systems environment,and Multi-Criteria Analyses were used to derive the water erosion risks map pointing out the most exposed areas requiring the implementation of suitable conservation measures.The validation of the obtained results shows the simplicity and the potential of this approach for water erosion risks mapping.

Control of aliphatic halogenated DBP precursors with multiple drinking water treatment processes： Formation potential and integrated toxicity

The comprehensive control efficiency for the formation potentials（FPs） of a range of regulated and unregulated halogenated disinfection by-products（DBPs）（including carbonaceous DBPs（C-DBPs）, nitrogenous DBPs（N-DBPs）, and iodinated DBPs（I-DBPs）） with the multiple drinking water treatment processes, including pre-ozonation, conventional treatment（coagulation–sedimentation, pre-sand filtration）, ozone-biological activated carbon（O_3-BAC） advanced treatment, and post-sand filtration, was investigated. The potential toxic risks of DBPs by combing their FPs and toxicity values were also evaluated.The results showed that the multiple drinking water treatment processes had superior performance in removing organic/inorganic precursors and reducing the formation of a range of halogenated DBPs. Therein, ozonation significantly removed bromide and iodide,and thus reduced the formation of brominated and iodinated DBPs. The removal of organic carbon and nitrogen precursors by the conventional treatment processes was substantially improved by O_3-BAC advanced treatment, and thus prevented the formation of chlorinated C-DBPs and N-DBPs. However, BAC filtration leads to the increased formation of brominated C-DBPs and N-DBPs due to the increase of bromide/DOC and bromide/DON.After the whole multiple treatment processes, the rank order for integrated toxic risk values caused by these halogenated DBPs was haloacetonitriles（HANs）》haloacetamides（HAMs） 〉haloacetic acids（HAAs） 〉 trihalomethanes（THMs） 〉 halonitromethanes（HNMs） 》I-DBPs（I-HAMs and I-THMs）. I-DBPs failed to cause high integrated toxic risk because of their very low FPs. The significant higher integrated toxic risk value caused by HANs than other halogenated DBPs cannot be ignored.

Risk assessment of Giardia from a full scale MBR sewage treatment plant caused by membrane integrity failure

Membrane bioreactors（MBR） are highly efficient at intercepting particles and microbes and have become an important technology for wastewater reclamation. However, many pathogens can accumulate in activated sludge due to the long residence time usually adopted in MBR, and thus may pose health risks when membrane integrity problems occur.This study presents data from a survey on the occurrence of water-borne Giardia pathogens in reclaimed water from a full-scale wastewater treatment plant with MBR experiencing membrane integrity failure, and assessed the associated risk for green space irrigation. Due to membrane integrity failure, the MBR effluent turbidity varied between 0.23 and 1.90 NTU over a period of eight months. Though this turbidity level still met reclaimed water quality standards（≤ 5 NTU）, Giardia were detected at concentrations of 0.3 to 95 cysts/10 L, with a close correlation between effluent turbidity and Giardia concentration. All β-giardin gene sequences of Giardia in the WWTP influents were genotyped as Assemblages A and B, both of which are known to infect humans. An exponential dose–response model was applied to assess the risk of infection by Giardia. The risk in the MBR effluent with chlorination was9.83 × 10-3, higher than the acceptable annual risk of 1.0 × 10^-4. This study suggested that membrane integrity is very important for keeping a low pathogen level, and multiple barriers are needed to ensure the biological safety of MBR effluent.

Recent advances in pharmaceuticals and personal care products in the surface water and sediments in China

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products （PPCPs） have been regarded as an emerging problem in the surface water environment in the past few decades. In China, although related studies were initiated several years ago, an increasing number of studies on this topic have been conducted in recent years. These studies have expanded knowledge of their occurrence, behavior and associated risk in the surface water environment in China. This review compiles the most recent literature related to the studies of PPCPs in the surface water environment in China. It includes PPCP occurrence in surface water and sediments, their geographical distribution, and outcomes of the associated risk assessment. It shows that antibiotics have received much more attention in both surface water and sediments than other PPCPs. Compared to other countries; most antibiotics in the collected sediments in China showed higher contamination levels. Many more study areas have been covered in recent years; however, attention has been given to only specific areas. Environmental risk assessment based on risk quotients indicated that sulfamethoxazole presents the most significant environmental risk to relevant aquatic organisms; followed by ofloxacin, ciprofloxacin, enrofloxacin, 17α-ethynylestradiol, ibuprofen and diclofenac. Despite limited research on the environmental risk assessment of PPCPs in sediments, higher risks posed by PPCPs in the sediments rather than surfhce water were identified highlighting the need for further risk assessment of PPCPs in sediment samples.

Predicting the aquatic risk of realistic pesticide mixtures to species assemblages in Portuguese river basins

Although pesticide regulatory tools are mainly based on individual substances, aquatic ecosystems are usually exposed to multiple pesticides from their use on the variety of crops within the catchment of a river. This study estimated the impact of measured pesticide mixtures in surface waters from 2002 and 2008 within three important Portuguese river basins（＇Mondego＇, ＇Sado＇ and ＇Tejo＇） on primary producers, arthropods and fish by toxic pressure calculation. Species sensitivity distributions（SSDs）, in combination with mixture toxicity models, were applied. Considering the differences in the responses of the taxonomic groups as well as in the pesticide exposures that these organisms experience, variable acute multi-substance potentially affected fractions（ms PAFs） were obtained. The median msP AF for primary producers and arthropods in surface waters of all river basins exceeded 5%, the cut-off value used in the prospective SSD approach for deriving individual environmental quality standards. A ranking procedure identified various photosystem II inhibiting herbicides, with oxadiazon having the relatively largest toxic effects on primary producers, while the organophosphorus insecticides, chlorfenvinphos and chlorpyrifos, and the organochloride endosulfan had the largest effects on arthropods and fish, respectively. These results ensure compliance with European legislation with regard to ecological risk assessment and management of pesticides in surface waters.