Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Sea Level Rise and Tropical Cyclones in Dongzhaigang Mangroves,China

Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical cyclones(TCs).However,there is a lack of research addressing future simultaneous combined impacts of the slow-onset of SLR and rapid-onset of TCs on China's mangroves.In order to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method considering the superimposed effects of these two factors and analyze risk for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,Hainan Island,China,we used observational and climate model data to assess the risks to mangroves under low,intermediate,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(such as SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in 2030,2050,and 2100,and compiled a risk assessment scheme for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China.The results showed that the combined risks from SLR and TCs will continue to rise;however,SLRs will increase in intensity,and TCs will decrease.The comprehensive risk of the Dongzhaigang mangroves posed by climate change will remain low under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios by 2030,but it will increase substantially by 2100.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,the risks to mangroves in Dongzhaigang are projected to increase considerably by 2050,and approximately 68.8%of mangroves will be at very high risk by 2100.The risk to the Dongzhaigang mangroves is not only influenced by the hazards but also closely linked to their exposure and vulnerability.We therefore propose climate resilience developmental responses for mangroves to address the effects of climate change.This study for the combined impact of TCs and SLR on mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China can enrich the method system of mangrove risk assessment and provide references for scientific management.

Risk assessment and zoning of sea level rise in Shandong Province

Sea level rise is a slow-onset disaster.We collected information about the natural and ecological environments,tides and sea levels,and socio-economic aspects to investigate the distribution and zoning of the risks from sea level rise across Shandong Province.The trends in sea level in different counties of Shandong Province were predicted using moving averages and a random dynamic analysis forecasting model,and the model outputs and socio-economic indicators were combined to assess the risks.The results show that the risks of sea level rise along the western coast of Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay in Shandong Province were sufficiently large to warrant attention.

Evaluation of Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coast of Mohammedia(Morocco):Land at Risk of Flooding and Socioeconomic Impacts

One of the significant consequences of the climate change predicted for the next decades is the sea and ocean level rise.The coastal zone of Mohammedia (Morocco),a site of significant socio-economic activeties largely open to the Atlantic Ocean,is thus confronted with hydrodynamic agents and a possible sea level rise,whose impacts will result in an immersion of the low topography areas。

The effect of sea level rise on beach morphology of caspian sea coast

Study of beach morphology has been one of the most important issues in coastal engineering research projects. Because of the existence of two important coastal areas located in the north and south parts of the Iran, in the present study an analysis of the coastal zone behaviour is made. Bed level elevations are measured and compared with the theoretical equilibrium profile. It is shown that the behaviour of the coastal zone in the region is consistent with the Dean （1991） equilibrium profile. In the next stage, following extensive investigations, the bed level changes due to arise in sea level at different locations in the surf zone are estimated. The mechanism of beach re-treatment due to a rise in sea level is considered based on the simplified model of Dean （1991） in which the mass balance of the sediments is taken into account. Comparison of the equilibrium profiles for different cases of sea level rise, clearly shows that because of the sediment transport induced by the fluctuation of the water level, the beach profile in the surf zone changes accordingly resulting in an erosion in the inner region of the surf zone and an accumulation of sediments towards the offshore.

Methodological study of coastal geological hazard assessment based on GIS

The current researches on risk assessment of geological disasters mainly focus on unexpected disasters such as collapses, landslides and mud-rock flows etc. As the convergence zone of land and sea, coastal zone is the most active and complex area of interactions of lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere and anthroposphere. The ecological environment of coastal zone is very fragile, so further systematical research on coastal geological hazard assessment and prevention is in urgent need. The author begins with the definition and research contents and selects three typical coastal geological disasters, namely, the seawater intrusion, coastline change and sea-level rise as the objects of study. The systematic analysis and study on assessment system and methods are conducted, hazard assessment factors are selected, and a completely set of coastal disaster assessment system is established based on the technique of GIS. We took Bao’an District of Shenzhen City as an example and carried out a case study.

A global analysis of coastal flood risk to the petrochemical distribution network in a changing climate

The global petroleum distribution network already faces a significant threat of disruption due to annual coastal flooding of major refining centers,which is expected to further increase with the effects of climate change.This study considers the impacts that sea level rise projections might have on the annual flood risk to coastal refineries,and how regional disruptions propagate across the network.Both the annual regional risk in terms of expected production disruption under a range of climate scenarios,as well as the expected production disruption due to a major flood event impacting refining hubs of high importance are assessed throughout the 21 st century.These risks are propagated across the network to model the global impact of coastal flood-induced refining disruptions.This analysis provides insights on the relative risks that different climate scenarios and flood events pose globally,informing potential mitigation and adaptation needs of critical facilities.Due to the highly interconnected nature of the global petroleum product distribution network,these results highlight the need for mitigation considerations for even regions with low domestic production disruption risk due to coastal flood hazards,as disruptions in remote regions can have cascading consequences resulting in significant disruption to petroleum product supply around the world.Furthermore,such results can inform decisions regarding technology transitions or energy diversification in light of the new understanding of climate risks to coastal refineries and the global petroleum distribution network.

钦江河口湿地茳芏分布变化及风险分析

茳芏是我国南方滨海湿地的特色代表种,具有护堤保滩、消减污染等重要生态价值。为了在海平面上升背景下更好地开展广西钦江河口湿地保护,本研究通过卫星遥感-无人机航拍-现场调查相结合的方法,明确了钦江河口湿地茳芏的分布变化及影响机制,并根据沉积速率、径流输入、海平面上升等信息分析了未来风险及对策建议。研究表明,2011—2022年,研究区内茳芏总面积由约0.28 km^(2)增加到了约0.36 km^(2),并呈现向海扩张的趋势。钦江河口湿地茳芏近期风险较小,但未来随着钦江径流量下降及悬浮物浓度降低,以及海平面上升,风险会逐步增加。建议定期开展海平面、滩面高程及茳芏分布区监测,并通过退养还滩、岸线修复等生态工程,为茳芏湿地应对中长期海平面上升提供缓冲空间。

Heterogeneous sea-level rises along coastal zones and small islands

Coastal zones and many small islands are highly susceptible to sea-level rise(SLR). Coastal zones have a large exposed population and integrated high-value assets, and islands provide diverse ecosystem services to millions of people worldwide. The coastal zones and small islands affected by SLR are likely to suffer from submergence, flooding and erosion in the future. However, very few studies have addressed the heterogeneity in SLR changes and the potential risk to coastal zones and small islands. Here we used the mean sea level(MSL) derived from satellite altimetry data to analyse the trends and accelerations of SLRs along global coastal zones and small islands. We found that except for the Antarctic coastal zone, the annual MSL within 50 km of the coasts presented an increasing trend of 3.09 ± 0.13 mm a^-1 but a decreasing acceleration of -0.02 ± 0.02 mm a^-2 from 1993 to 2017. The highest coastal MSL trend of3.85 ± 0.60 mm a^-1 appeared in Oceania, and the lowest trend of 2.32 ± 0.37 mm a^-1 occured in North America. Africa, North America and South America showed acceleration trends, and Eurasia, Australia and Oceania had deceleration trends. Further, MSLs around global small islands reflected an increasing trend with a rate of 3.01 ± 0.16 mm a^-1 but a negative acceleration of -0.02 ± 0.02 mm a^-2. Regional heterogeneity in the trends and accelerations of MSLs along the coasts and small islands suggests that stakeholders should take discriminating precautions to cope with future disadvantageous impacts of the SLR.

海平面上升对河北黄骅台风风暴潮漫滩影响的数值研究

基于河北省黄骅地区的风暴潮漫滩灾害风险评估模型,利用成熟的业务化台风风暴潮数值预报模式、100m分辨率的风暴潮漫滩数值模式,以及该地区的海平面上升和地面沉降结果数据,对台风登陆地点、路径、方向进行科学组合,利用各种组合参数条件进行数值计算,得到了995、985、975、965hPa四种台风强度下,海平面上升对风暴潮漫滩的影响。在相对海平面上升50cm和100cm情况下,四种台风强度的风暴潮平均最大漫滩面积分别增加了约35%和86%;台风强度中等,即985或975hPa时,风暴潮最大漫滩面积的增加更为显著。研究表明,海平面上升对该地区的漫滩影响非常明显,有效防范风暴潮灾害的同时,在气候变化的大背景下,应进一步研究和提出应对海平面上升的长效防治措施。

津冀沿海地区海平面上升的风险评估研究

气候变化引起的海平面上升将给沿海地区社会经济发展和生态环境带来严重的影响。津冀沿海地区地势低平极易受到海平面上升的直接影响,该文以津冀沿海地区为例,对海平面上升风险评估方法进行示范应用,评估该地区海平面上升的风险,区划海平面上升风险,并提出风险管理的建议。结果表明,天津滨海新区、河北黄骅市等地面临的海平面上升风险较高,在沿海发展规划和重大工程建设中应充分考虑海平面上升因素。

中国沿海海平面上升风险区划方法研究

气候变化引起的海平面上升将给沿海地区社会经济发展和生态环境带来严重的影响。中国沿海地区地势低平极易受到海平面上升的直接影响,本文研究提出了一套适用于中国沿海地区海平面上升风险区划的方法,评估中国地区海平面上升的风险,分别按照省级评估单元和市级评估单元区划中国沿海地区的海平面上升风险,并提出风险管理的建议。

2030年上海地区相对海平面变化趋势的研究和预测

从全球气候变化区域响应角度，依据1912—2000年吴淞验潮站年平均潮位资料，构建灰色线性回归组合模型，并将其与最小二乘法和小波变换相结合，分析以吴淞为代表的上海绝对海平面长期变化趋势和周期变化规律。由此预测2030年上海绝对海平面相对2011年的上升值为4cm，结合已公布的构造沉降和城市地面沉降、流域水土保持和大型水利工程及人工挖沙导致的河口河槽冲刷、河口围海造地和深水航道及跨江跨海大桥导致水仇抬升等叠加效应及其变化趋势，预测2030年上海市相对海平面上升10～16cm，陆地海平面上升有7个风险分阮。

渤海西岸平原海平面上升危害性评估

本文按照ＩＰＣＣ第三工作组海岸管理小组拟定的国际共同研究大纲与方法，在对渤海西岸平原海平面上升的危害性进行评估时，应用ＴＭ遥感影像与地理信息系统，由土地利用类型、海岸蚀积动态叠加１─６ｍ等高线编制成环境地形图，再与地面形变图等辅助图件对照分析，预测海平面上升对环境和社会经济的危害。

中国沿海地区海平面上升脆弱性区划

以沿海县级行政单元为评估单元,分别从海岸带自然环境和沿海社会经济两个方面,评估中国沿海各地区海平面上升背景下的海岸带脆弱程度,综合区划我国沿海海平面上升的脆弱性。结果表明,海平面上升对我国沿海城市群密集的地带影响甚大,尤其是环渤海沿岸、珠江三角洲和长江三角洲等三个区域是典型的海平面上升影响的脆弱区,沿海地区的发展应充分考虑海平面上升的影响。

海岸带脆弱性评估方法研究进展

海岸带脆弱性源于气候变化、海平面上升、人类活动的共同作用,而海岸带脆弱性评估的误差主要是来自海岸环境演化预案和社会经济发展预案的不确定性。为了提高评估精度,应确定海岸系统内、外部驱动力及其关键变量,研究自然和人类活动共同作用下的海岸系统演化过程、海岸系统风险发生的机制、以及海岸系统承载力和阈值,通过遥感和地理信息系统技术集成,建立适用的预案,用于脆弱性综合评估。

海岸带侵蚀灾害研究进展及思考

在当今全球海平面上升的背景下,海岸侵蚀灾害已严重威胁着海岸带生存和生活环境,逐渐成为各相关领域的一个热点研究课题。因此,在总结中国典型海岸段侵蚀灾害的基础上,深刻探讨国内外海岸带侵蚀研究现状,并就此提出存在的两个关键性问题。最后,指出今后应重点加强以下5个方面的研究:(1)海岸侵蚀与地质环境条件的相关关系;(2)海岸侵蚀分区特征与发育分布规律;(3)侵蚀海岸的变形破坏模式;(4)岩土体在各种侵蚀因子作用下力学特性变化;(5)海岸稳定性的评价机制。

海平面上升的淹没效应和岸滩冲淤对潮间带湿地面积影响的分离估算

海平面上升的淹没效应导致潮间带湿地面积损失,泥沙淤积可以抵消海平面上升的影响而使潮间带湿地面积持续增长。潮间带湿地面积的实际变化取决于这两个因素的抗衡。本文通过对崇明东滩固定断面高程的重复测量,结合海平面上升速率和潮间带坡度,尝试分离海平面上升和泥沙淤积两因子对潮间带湿地面积变化的影响。结果表明,2005～2010年间,泥沙淤积使崇明东滩潮间带湿地面积增加1.79km2(平均0.36km2/a),而相对海平面上升的"淹没"效应导致崇明东滩潮间带湿地面积损失约0.44～0.64km2(0.09～0.13km2/a),潮间带面积实际增长1.15～1.35km2(0.23～0.27km2/a)。今后几十年,受全球海平面加速上升和长江入海泥沙进一步减少的影响,崇明东滩潮间带湿地的净淤涨速率可能进一步下降,崇明东滩湿地的开发利用将面临新的挑战。

中国海岸20 ka以来的演替过程及趋势分析:对现代海岸生态保护修复的启示

【研究目的】为支撑海岸带生态保护修复,提出科学修复方案,需要掌握中国海岸自然演替总体规律和趋势。【研究方法】本文在系统梳理总结中国海岸演化相关成果的基础上,采用钻孔综合研究、遥感解译和ArcGIS空间分析等手段,定量重建了末次盛冰期以来的海岸演化过程。【研究结果】结果显示,近200多万年以来海水频繁进出中国海岸带地区,其中最后一次大规模海退-海侵发生在近20 ka以来,当时,中国海岸整体经历了末次盛冰期—中全新世早期的海侵、中全新世早期—1850年的海退、~1850年以来的海侵3个阶段。【结论】基于现有器测资料分析显示,中国乃至世界海岸未来将面临海面上升加快、海岸侵蚀加剧、风暴潮威胁增大的自然过程,这些将是海岸带生态保护修复面临的核心问题。有鉴于此,针对海岸带生态保护修复建议如下:一是顺应砂质岸线整体侵蚀的自然规律,将具有重要生态和/或经济价值的岸段作为修复重点,避免大规模过度修复。二是针对海面上升和海岸侵蚀对红树林生态空间的挤压,确定科学可行的修复目标。三是加强泥质沿海低地地区的生态化海堤建设。

构造运动与中国沿岸平原的地质灾害

中国海岸穿过构造沉降带和隆起带，沉降带及隆起带断陷盆地的持续下降吸引了源远流长的大河在此人海，而隆起带内入海的河流多为近源小河，从而引起河流泥沙沿岸分配的不均和海岸沉积物的差异。沉降带内每公里海岸线接受的沉积物是隆起带的数十倍，且以砂质沉积物为主．隆起带河流泥沙来量少．而且砂质沉积物占了压倒的优势．河流泥沙沿岸分配的不均决定了中国沙质和淤泥质海岸的基本类型和分布格局、沉降带和隆起带松散沉积层的厚度和结构，山此产生了中国沿岸与第四纪沉积层有关的灾害和环境问题的有规律的分布。地面沉降主要分布于沉降带内，而地下海水入侵多出现在依赖地下水的隆起带内，底辟构造、浅层天然气往往在大河三角洲构成灾害和潜在的地质灾害．沉降带和隆起带断陷盆地内的海岸低地通常是海平面上升的主要脆弱地区．此外，丰富的河流泥沙使中国海岸对全球海平面上升的响应也不相同，如海岸湿地的再生和海岸侵蚀原因的复杂性等．

海平面上升的风险评估研究进展与展望

海岸带是海陆交互作用的集中区域,人类活动密集,面对未来海平面上升带来的影响具有敏感性和脆弱性。评估未来海平面上升对海岸带的风险,具有理论与实际意义。根据海平面上升风险评估研究框架,总结了海平面上升、海岸侵蚀、风暴潮淹没、海水入侵、湿地丧失等方面的研究现状,在此基础上,分析了目前研究存在的不足,并提出了海平面上升风险评估未来研究的关键问题。