海南核电Risk-Informed体系的开发规划

Risk-Informed体系是核电企业保障核安全与经济效益的重要工具,借鉴国内成熟核电厂的管理经验,分3步构建海南核电1、2号机组的Risk-Informed管理体系。

A Framework for Modern Risk-Informed Root Cause Analysis Process

The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creating tiers of analysis where the greater the risk,the more sophisticated the analysis.In a risk-informed root cause analysis process,a situation is normally not analyzed at a level less than what actually occurred.However,a situation may be investigated as though the consequence were greater than actually happened,especially if only slight differences in circumstances could result in a significantly higher consequence.While operational events or safety issues are normally expected to result only with negligible or marginal actual consequences,many of those would actually have certain potential to develop or propagate into catastrophic events.This potential can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively.Risk-informing of root cause analysis relies on mapping the event or safety issue into a risk matrix which,traditionally,is a two-dimensional probability-consequence matrix.A new concept employed in the risk matrix for root cause analysis is that,while the probability reflects the observed or expected range of values(retaining,thus,its“traditional”meaning),the consequence reflects not only the observed or materialized impact(such as failure of equipment)but,also,its potential to propagate or develop into highly undesirable final state.The paper presents main elements of risk-informed root cause analysis process and discusses qualitative and quantitative aspects and approaches to determination of risk significance of operational events or safety issues.

Simulation-Based and Risk-Informed Assessment of the Effectiveness of Tsunami Evacuation Routes Using Agent-Based Modeling:A Case Study of Seaside,Oregon

Typically,tsunami evacuation routes are marked using signs in the transportation network and the evacuation map is made to educate people on how to follow the evacuation route.However,tsunami evacuation routes are usually identified without the support of evacuation simulation,and the route effectiveness in the reduction of evacuation risk is typically unknown quantitatively.This study proposes a simulation-based and risk-informed framework for quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of evacuation routes in reducing evacuation risk.An agentbased model is used to simulate the tsunami evacuation,which is then used in a simulation-based risk assessment framework to evaluate the evacuation risk.The route effectiveness in reducing the evacuation risk is evaluated by investigating how the evacuation risk varies with the proportion of the evacuees that use the evacuation route.The impacts of critical risk factors such as evacuation mode(for example,on foot or by car)and population size and distribution on the route effectiveness are also investigated.The evacuation risks under different cases are efficiently calculated using the augmented sample-based approach.The proposed approach is applied to the riskinformed evaluation of the route effectiveness for tsunami evacuation in Seaside,Oregon.The evaluation results show that the route usage is overall effective in reducing the evacuation risk in the study area.The results can be used for evacuation preparedness education and hence effective evacuation.

秦山二期核电厂安全缓解系统的性能指标分析

简要介绍了美国核管会基于Risk-Informed的MSPI的定义和计算方法,并以秦山二期扩建工程的PSA模型对重要安全缓解系统中的辅助给水系统和冷却水系统进行了MSPI分析。结合采集的相关系统和设备的可靠性数据,计算了从2006年初至2007年底,该电厂的上述2个系统的MSPI指标。计算结果表明辅助给水系统和冷却水系统运行性能良好。