Prediction of 10-year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk among Adults Aged 40-79 Years in China:a Nationally Representative Survey

Objective To establish the distribution of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease （ASCVD） risk among Chinese adults. Methods We estimated the 10-year ASCVD risk by applying the 2013 American College of Cardiology/ American Heart Association pooled cohort equations （PCEs） to the data obtained from the 2010 China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance that involved 61,541 participants （representing 520,158,652 Chinese adults） aged 40-79 years. We also compared the ASCVD risk with the 10-year ischemic cardiovascular disease （ICVD） risk, which was calculated using the simplified scoring tables recommended by the Chinese Guidelines for Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases （Chinese model）. Results Based on the PCEs, the average 10-year ASCVD risk among adults without self-reported stroke or myocardial infraction was 12.5%. Approximately 247 million （47.4%） and 107 million （20.6%） adults had 〉 7.5% and 〉 20% 10-year ASCVD risks, respectively. The 10-year ASCVD risk 〉 20% was higher among men, less educated individuals, smokers, drinkers, and physically inactive individuals than among their counterparts. Overall, 29.0% of adults categorized using the Chinese model were overclassified with the PCEs. Conclusion Our results define the distribution of 10-year ASCVD risk among Chinese adults. The 10-year ASCVD risk predicted by the PCEs was higher than the ICVD risk predicted by the Chinese model.

Toxicological effects involved in risk assessment of rare earth lanthanum on roots of Vicia faba L.seedlings

Combined chemical analyses and biological measurements were utilized to investigate potential toxicological effects and possible mechanisms involved in risk assessment of rare earth elements （REEs） on Viciafaba L. seedlings, which were hydroponically cultivated and exposed to various concentrations of lanthanum （La） for 15 days. The results showed that La contents in both the solution and roots increased with the increase of extraneous La, contributing to hormetic dose responses of superoxide dismutase （SOD）, catalase （CAT）, guaiacol peroxidase （GPX）, ascorbate peroxidase （APX） and endoprotease （EP） isozymes activities, and HSP 70 production enhanced at low doses but suppressed at higher doses of La. These physiological responses constituted antioxidant and detoxification systems against La-induced oxidative stress. The elevated La levels also contributed to oxidatively modified proteins, which were most responsible for subsequent cell death and growth retardation of the roots. By combination of hormetic and traditional threshold dose levels, the threshold dose range was deduced to be 108-195 μg La/g dry weight in the roots, corresponding to 0.90-3.12 mg/L of soluble La in the culture solution. It suggests that persistent applications of REEs may lead to potential ecological risk in the environment.

Informing management of rare species with an approach combining scenario modeling and spatially explicit risk assessment

Wildlife managers are tasked with identifying and managing stressors that threaten persistence of populations.We demonstrate an approach to land-use planning that combines scenario modeling and ecological risk assessment to map and quantify risk to population persistence for three rare prairie species in Washington State,USA.Following corroboration of model output,we found that of the management scenarios considered,only a scenario with year-round restrictions on use of off-road vehicles,digging,and camping enforced in all potential habitat reduces risk to the species.Decreased risk is focused primarily in two patches of prairie habitat in our study area,indicating stringent restrictions need not be applied broadly.However,one area is not easily accessed by two of the three species considered,suggesting reintroductions to suitable but inaccessible habitat may play an important role in management of these species.Our analyses suggest changes in land use and management that might improve habitat for rare species,with options for minimizing monetary and social costs.Because the proposed approach relies on hypothetical management scenarios and uses a model flexible in data requirements to provide spatially explicit output,it can be used to inform adaptive management of rare species in diverse land-planning processes and will be especially useful when management decisions must be made under time or cost constraints.

Comparative assessment of primary and secondary infection risks in a norovirus outbreak using a household model simulation

Diarrheal diseases can be transmitted via both primary infection due to exposures to contaminated materials from the environment and secondary infection due to person- to-person contacts. Usually, the importance of secondary infection is empirically assessed by fitting mathematical models to the epidemic curves. However, these empirical models may not be applicable to other epidemic cases because they are developed only for the target epidemics and they don＇t consider the detail routes of infection. In our previous study, we developed a theoretical model taking into account the various routes of infection that commonly occur in households （e.g., shaking hands, food handling, and changing diapers）. This model was made flexible and applicable to any epidemics by means of adjusting model parameters. In this study, we proposed a new index ＂Vulnerability indicator to secondary infection （VISI）＂, which expressed a ratio of secondary infection to primary infection risks and calculated this index in a simulated norouirus （NOV） epidemic that involved I0,000 households. The results demonstrated that households composed of more than three members including infant（s） had much higher levels of VlSl （5-45） than two-member-households with VlSI （0.1-4）. These results concluded that the infants were likely to be a hub of secondary infections in highly dense families and therefore careful handling of diapers was deemed indispensible in such families to effectively control the secondary infections.