Planetary health risks in urban agriculture

Urban agriculture is gaining recognition for its potential contributions to environmental resilience and climate change adaptation,providing advantages such as urban greening,reduced heat island effects,and decreased air pollution.Moreover,it indirectly supports communities during weather events and natural disasters,ensuring food security and fostering community cohesion.However,concerns about planetary health risks persist in highly urbanized and climate-affected areas.Employing electronic databases such as Web of Science and PubMed and adhering to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines,we identified 55 relevant papers to comprehend the planetary health risks associated with urban agriculture,The literature review identified five distinct health risks related to urban agriculture:(1)trace metal risks in urban farms;(2)health risks associated with wastewater irrigation;(3)zoonotic risks;(4)other health risks;and(5)social and economic risks.The study highlights that urban agriculture,while emphasizing environmental benefits,particularly raises concerns about trace metal bioaccumulation in soil and vegetables,posing health risks for populations.Other well studied risks included wastewater irrigation and backyard livestock farming.The main limitations in the available literature were in studying infectious diseases and antibiotic resistance associated with urban agriculture.

Application of Fuzzy Cluster Analysis Method in Evaluating Relevant Index and Recognizing Risks of Coronary Heart Disease in the Aged

The risk recognition model for preventing and monitoring the Coronary Heart Diseases (CHD) in the aged is proposed, which is based on the testing results of four indexes and includes Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL), Total Cholesterol (TC), Triglyceridemia (TG)and age. Some people who took the health checkup in Shanghai Xinhua Hospital are classified into 3 groups,and each group is associated with prevalence risk of contracting CHD. Then the fuzzy recognition method is applied to evaluate the risk of CHD. The accuracy rate is up to 85%. The model is applicable to not only analysis of risk in medical but also analysis of risk in finance, insurance and some other fields.

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis:A comprehensive analysis from a decade-long study

BACKGROUND Cirrhosis is a significant risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Variability in HCC risk among patients with cirrhosis is notable,particularly when considering the diverse etiologies of cirrhosis.AIM To identify specific risk factors contributing to HCC development in patients with cirrhosis.METHODS This retrospective study analyzed data from cirrhotic patients at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 1,2012 to September 30,2022 with at least 6 mo of followup.Patient demographics,medical histories,etiologies,and clinical characteristics were examined.Cox regression analysis was used to analyze correlations of the above parameters with hepatocarcinogenesis,while competing risk regression was used to estimate their adjusted hazard ratios accounting for death.The cumulative incidence was plotted over time.RESULTS Overall,5417 patients with cirrhosis(median age:54 years;65.8%males)were analyzed.Hepatitis B virus(HBV)was the most common etiology(23.3%),with 25%(n=1352)developing HCC over a 2.9-year follow-up period.Patients with multiple etiologies had the HCC highest incidence(30.3%),followed by those with HBV-related cirrhosis(29.5%).Significant risk factors included male sex,advanced age,hepatitis C virus(HCV)infection,elevated blood ammonia,and low platelet count.Men had a higher 5-year HCC risk than women(37.0%vs 31.5%).HBV,HCV,and HBV/HCV co-infected patients had 5-year risks of HCC of 45.8%,42.9%,and 48.1%,respectively,compared to 29.5%in nonviral hepatitis cases,highlighting the significant HCC risk from viral hepatitis,especially HBV,and underscores the importance of monitoring these high-risk groups.CONCLUSION In conclusion,HBV-related cirrhosis strongly correlates with HCC,with male sex,older age,viral hepatitis,elevated blood ammonia,and lower albumin and platelet levels increasing the risk of HCC.

Modeling,Simulation,and Risk Analysis of Battery Energy Storage Systems in New Energy Grid Integration Scenarios

Energy storage batteries can smooth the volatility of renewable energy sources.The operating conditions during power grid integration of renewable energy can affect the performance and failure risk of battery energy storage system(BESS).However,the current modeling of grid-connected BESS is overly simplistic,typically only considering state of charge(SOC)and power constraints.Detailed lithium(Li)-ion battery cell models are computationally intensive and impractical for real-time applications and may not be suitable for power grid operating conditions.Additionally,there is a lack of real-time batteries risk assessment frameworks.To address these issues,in this study,we establish a thermal-electric-performance(TEP)coupling model based on a multitime scale BESS model,incorporating the electrical and thermal characteristics of Li-ion batteries along with their performance degradation to achieve detailed simulation of grid-connected BESS.Additionally,considering the operating characteristics of energy storage batteries and electrical and thermal abuse factors,we developed a battery pack operational riskmodel,which takes into account SOCand charge-discharge rate(Cr),using amodified failure rate to represent the BESS risk.By integrating detailed simulation of energy storage with predictive failure risk analysis,we obtained a detailed model for BESS risk analysis.This model offers a multi-time scale integrated simulation that spans month-level energy storage simulation times,day-level performance degradation,minutescale failure rate,and second-level BESS characteristics.It offers a critical tool for the study of BESS.Finally,the performance and risk of energy storage batteries under three scenarios—microgrid energy storage,wind power smoothing,and power grid failure response—are simulated,achieving a real-time state-dependent operational risk analysis of the BESS.

Risk Analysis of Passalora sequoiae Invasion to China with Imported Coniferous Wood

According to international standard plant quarantine measures and principle risk analysis(ISPM No.11),a risk assessment was carried out for Passalora sequoiae through geographical distribution,possibility of colonization,probability of diffusion,economic importance and difficulty in risk management.Results show that P.sequoiae has a greater risk of introduction and diffusion,and it has distributed in parts of China.It is suggested that P.sequoiae should be added to the list of forest dangerous pests in China.Besides,porting departments should focus on the pathogen on imported host seedlings like Cryptomeria.

Analysis of the Tragedy of Vila Socóin Cubatão (São Paulo, Brazil) Using the Haddon Matrix: A Comprehensive Examination of Socio-Environmental Factors and Risk Mitigation Strategies

The tragedy of Vila Socó epitomizes the socio-environmental repercussions of rapid industrialization in Cubatão. Beginning in the 1940s with the construction of the Anchieta highway, the city experienced an influx of migrants drawn by burgeoning industries, leading to unplanned urban growth and the emergence of vulnerable communities like Vila Socó. This article examines the interconnected factors—such as demographic shifts, inadequate planning, and regulatory oversight—that culminated in the devastating fire of 1984, claiming numerous lives and highlighting systemic failures. Utilizing the Haddon Matrix, this study dissects the Vila Socó incident, emphasizing the roles of human error, infrastructure integrity, and socio-economic disparities in disaster causation. By contextualizing the tragedy within Cubatão’s industrial trajectory, it underscores the urgent need for comprehensive risk assessment and proactive mitigation strategies in rapidly developing regions globally. Beyond its immediate focus, this work offers broader insights into the dynamics of industrial disasters and their socio-economic implications. As pipelines continue to play a vital role in global energy infrastructure, the lessons drawn from Vila Socó’s tragedy resonate deeply, emphasizing the imperative of robust safety protocols and accountable governance to prevent similar catastrophes in the future.

Application of Hazard Vulnerability Analysis Based on Kaiser Model in Neonatal Breast Milk Management

Objective:To analyze the existing risks in breast milk management at the neonatal department and provide corresponding countermeasures.Methods:22 risk events were identified in 7 risk links in the process of bottle-feeding of breast milk.Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model was applied to investigate and evaluate the risk events.Results:High-risk events include breast milk quality inspection,hand hygiene during collection,disinfection of collectors,cold chain management,hand hygiene during the reception,breast milk closed-loop management,and post-collection disposal.Root cause analysis of high-risk events was conducted and breast milk management strategies outside the hospital and within the neonatal department were proposed.Conclusion:Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model can identify and assess neonatal breast milk management risks effectively,which helps improve the management of neonatal breast milk.It is conducive to the safe development and promotion of bottle feeding of breast milk for neonates,ensuring the quality of medical services and the safety of children.

Cusp Model for Risk Analysis

Aim To assess simultaneously various risk states of a system. Methods\ Using the catastrophe and fuzzy theory, the energy and uncertainty in a system are set as two control variables and the function of the system is used as the state variable for analysis. Results and Conclusion\ A risk analysis model named the cusp model is presented. Various states regarding the safety of the system such as the accident state, no accident state and miss state can be represented at will on the cusp model.

Risk Assessment and Analysis of Bursaphelenchus Species in the Coniferous Forest in Yuyao, Ningbo

The method for pest risk analysis was used to make the potential risk analysis and assessment to the 8 Bursaphelenchus species found in the pines in Yuyao, Ningbao, and the corresponding risk management strategies were put forward.

Risk analysis system of geo-hazard based on GIS technique

The socio-economic attribute of geo-hazard made us distinguish it from the traditional engineering geology study. It will get more social benefit from the analysis of the geo-hazard in the socio-economic attribute. The hazard and the vulnerability of the element controls the risk level of the regional geo-hazard. The risk analysis supported by GIS in geo-hazard study is one of the most important directions. Based on the author’s studies in recent years, a risk analysis system of regional geo-hazard (RiskAnly) has been developed on the basis of software MAPGIS. The paper introduces the train of system design, the structure and the workflow of RiskAnly. As a case study, the paper also deals with the risk zonation of the regional landslide hazard of China.

Rough Outlier Detection Based Security Risk Analysis Methodology

Security is a nonfunctional information system attribute that plays a crucial role in wide sensor network application domains. Security risk can be quantified as the combination of the probability that a sensor network system may fail and the evaluation of the severity of the damage caused by the failure. In this paper, we devise a methodology of Rough Outlier Detection (ROD) for the detection of security-based risk factor, which originates from violations of attack requirements (namely, attack risks). The methodology elaborates dimension reduction method to analyze the attack risk probability from high dimensional and nonlinear data set, and combines it with rough redundancy reduction and the distance measurement of kernel function which is obtained using the ROD. In this way, it is possible to determine the risky scenarios, and the analysis feedback can be used to improve the sensor network system design. We illustrate the methodology in the DARPA case set study using step-by-step approach and then prove that the method is effective in lowering the rate of false alarm.

Risk analysis of extended reach wells in the Liuhua Oilfield,South China Sea,based on comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method

Drilling engineering has great uncertainty and it always involves huge investment and high risk. Risk analysis of extended reach drilling （ERD） is very important to prevent complex failures and to improve drilling efficiency. Nowadays there are few reports on how to analyze quantitatively the drilling risk for extended reach wells （ERWs）. Based on the fuzzy set theory, a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model for analyzing risks of ERD is proposed in this paper. Well B6ERW07 is a planned 8,000-meter ERW with a high ratio of horizontal displacement （HD） to vertical depth （VD） in the Liuhua Oilfield, the South China Sea, China. On the basis of the evaluation model developed in this study, the risk for drilling Well B6ERW07 was evaluated before drilling. The evaluation result shows that the success rate of drilling this well is predicted to be 51.9%, providing important rational and scientific information for the decisionmakers.

Fuzzy Risk Analysis of Harbour Engineering Investment by Hierarchy System Approach

The present risk analysis model of engineering investment is built by fuzzy hierarchy approach under the assumption of maximizing the revenues of the project during its whole life cycle of operation. It can reasonably be expressed by a system evaluation analysis. As a matter of fact, the system, aimed by its system goal can be modelled by a set of factors, constitutively structured by certain links between them, to form a factorial network chart, which represents the essentials of the system behaviours, the nodes of which represent the factors concerned. The weight distribution between factors located at the same level can be determined by the eigen-value problem of a 'pair comparison' relation matrix. The weight distribution of factors at each level is successively manipulated until the fuzzy synthetic risk assessment. As an example of risk analysis of engineering investment, a harbour construction project is presented for illustration.

Preoperative risk factor analysis in orthotopic liver transplantation with pretransplant artificial liver support therapy

AIM： To assess the value of pre-transplant artificial liver support in reducing the pre-operative risk factors relating to early mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation （OLT）. METHODS： Fifty adult patients with various stages and various etiologies undergoing OLT procedures were treated with molecular adsorbent recycling system （MARS） as preoperative liver support therapy. The study included two parts, the first one is to evaluate the medical effectiveness of single MARS treatment with some clinical and laboratory parameters, which were supposed to be the therapeutical pre-transplant risk factors, the second part is to study the patients undergoing OLT using the regression analysis on preoperative risk factors relating to early mortality （30 d） after OLT. RESULTS： In the 50 patients, the statistically significant improvement in the biochemical parameters was observed （pre-treatment and post-treatment）. Eight patients avoided the scheduled Ltx due to significant relief of clinical condition or recovery of failing liver function, 8 patients died, 34 patients were successfully bridged to Ltx, the immediate outcome of this 34 patients within 30d observation was： 28 kept alive and 6 patients died. CONCLUSION： Pre-operative SOFA, level of creatinine, INR, TNF-α, IL-10 are the main preoperative risk factors that cause early death after operation, MARS treatment before transplantion can relieve these factors significantly.

Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10-6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

Debris Flows Risk Analysis and Direct Loss Estimation:the Case Study of Valtellina di Tirano,Italy

andslide risk analysis is one of the primary studies providing essential instructions to the subsequent risk management process. The quantification of tangible and intangible potential losses is a critical step because it provides essential data upon which judgments can be made and policy can be formulated. This study aims at quantifying direct economic losses from debris flows at a medium scale in the study area in Italian Central Alps. Available hazard maps were the main inputs of this study. These maps were overlaid with information concerning elements at risk and their economic value. Then, a combination of both market and construction values was used to obtain estimates of future economic losses. As a result, two direct economic risk maps were prepared together with risk curves, useful to summarize expected monetary damage against the respective hazard probability. Afterwards, a qualitative risk map derived using a risk matrix officially provided by the set of laws issued by the regional government, was prepared. The results delimit areas of high economic as well as strategic importance which might be affected by debris flows in the future. Aside from limitations and inaccuracies inherently included in risk analysis process, identification of high risk areas allows local authorities to focus their attention on the “hot-spots”, where important consequences may arise and local （large） scale analysis needs to be performed with more precise cost-effectiveness ratio. The risk maps can be also used by the local authorities to increase population’s adaptive capacity in the disaster prevention process.

A Bayesian Network Approach for Offshore Risk Analysis Through Linguistic Variables

This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks （ BNs）. In this paper, linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations. In order to use fuzzy information, an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors. The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge, and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation, modifying and maintaining a BN model. The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking, or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made. The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness, vagueness and ignorance. This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts. Specifically, the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values, but also the a-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods. A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production, Storage and Off-loading （FPSO） unit and the anthorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

Risk Analysis and Assessment of Overtopping Concerning Sea Dikes in the Case of Storm Surge

Risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike failure rate and dike continuous risk prevention respectively, three new risk analysis methods concerning overtopping of sea dikes are developed. It is worth noting that the factors of storm surge which leads to overtopping are also considered in the three methods. In order to verify and estimate the effectiveness and reliability of the newly developed methods, quantified mutual information is adopted. By means of case testing, it can be found that different prior variables might be selected dividedly, according to the requirement of special engineering application or the dominance of loads. Based on the selection of prior variables, the correlating risk analysis method can be successfully applied to practical engineering.

Risk Analysis on Groundwater Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Blind Number Theory

Blind numbers of evaluation indices about groundwater resources carrying capacity are defined from the concomitancy of randomness, fuzziness, grey property and unascertainment of groundwater system. Based on fuzzy theory, a comprehensive evaluation model on groundwater resources carrying capacity is constructed with blind information. Then a risk assessment model of surcharge about groundwater resources carrying capacity is established on blind reliability theory. The probable value ＂＊＂ matrix of fuzzy membership degree about carrying capacity corresponding to each judgment level can be obtained with the aid of blind algorithm as well as the subjective reliability ＂×＂ matrix. And then a graph of ＂groundwater carrying capacity v.s. accumulative reliability＂ can be gained Based on the graph, fuzzy membership degree of groundwater resources carrying capacity to each judgment level under different risk probability can be got. Thus, a comparatively reasonable judgment to groundwater resources carrying capacity might be obtained, with comprehensive analysis to the state of society, economy technology and ecology.

Risk analysis of slope instability of levees under river sand mining conditions

Levees are affected by over-exploitation of river sand and river adjustments after the formation of sand pits. The slope stability is seriously threatened, drawing wide concern among experts and scholars in the area of water conservancy. This study analyzed the uncertainties of slope stability of levees under river sand mining conditions, including uncertainty caused by interest- driven over-exploitation by sand mining contractors, and uncertainty of the distance from the slope or sand pit to the bottom of the levee under the action of cross-flow force after the sand pit forms. Based on the results of uncertainty analysis, the distribution and related parameters of these uncertainties were estimated according to the Yangtze River sand mining practice. A risk model of the slope instability of a levee under river sand mining conditions was built, and the possibility of slope instability under different slope gradients in a certain reach of the Yangtze River was calculated with the Monte Carlo method and probability combination method. The results indicated that the probability of instability risk rose from 2.38% to 4.74% as the pits came into being.