<div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-family:Verdana;">Sensitivity analysis of neural networks to input variation is an important research area as it goes some way to addr...<div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-family:Verdana;">Sensitivity analysis of neural networks to input variation is an important research area as it goes some way to addressing the criticisms of their black-box behaviour. Such analysis of RBFNs for hydrological modelling has previously been limited to exploring perturbations to both inputs and connecting weights. In this paper, the backward chaining rule that has been used for sensitivity analysis of MLPs, is applied to RBFNs and it is shown how such analysis can provide insight into physical relationships. A trigonometric example is first presented to show the effectiveness and accuracy of this approach for first order derivatives alongside a comparison of the results with an equivalent MLP. The paper presents a real-world application in the modelling of river stage shows the importance of such approaches helping to justify and select such models.</span> </div>展开更多
There are abundant water power resources in the Yalong River which are suitable for the large hydroelectric engineering. But a reliability study should be made for the valley which liable to frequent earthquakes. The ...There are abundant water power resources in the Yalong River which are suitable for the large hydroelectric engineering. But a reliability study should be made for the valley which liable to frequent earthquakes. The color infrared aerophotos, multi-spectral photography and thermal infrared scanning had been specially done besides MSS image, processing. Researches on remote sensing applications to engineering geology, hydrogeology, deformation of neo-tectonics, Iandslide, mud-rock flow, ecological environment and geographical information system had been carried out by more than 20 research units.展开更多
Following the basin wide heavy flood on Changjiang River in 1998, a significant flood occurred in 1999. Comparative analysis of both floods in terms of flows and flooding situations shows that both floods had one comm...Following the basin wide heavy flood on Changjiang River in 1998, a significant flood occurred in 1999. Comparative analysis of both floods in terms of flows and flooding situations shows that both floods had one common feature, that is, the flood stages were fairly high. But they differed greatly at the same time, that is, the 1998 flood was a basin wide heavy one while the 1999 flood was a significant local one. At Yichang station there occurred eight flood peaks in 1998, while in 1999 only three peaks took place. The maximum peak discharge at this station in 1999 was 57 600 cubic meters per second, which was smaller than that in 1998. The maximum flood-volume in 30 d of the 1998 flood at this station equaled that in 1954, when an extraordinary heavy flood happened on the River, while the maximum flood-volume in 30 d in 1999 was 25.8 billion cubic meters per second smaller than the 1998 one. It is seen that inflow floods from the upstream Changjiang River (above Yichang) in 1999 were not so big. Comparison of flood volumes in longer period shows that the 1999 flood was relatively concentrated while the 1998 one had lasted longer duration. Analysis shows that flooding situations in both years differed significantly in terms of the flood volumes diverted from river channels due to dyke breaches and collapses, the cases of polder embankment collapses, the areas of inundated cultivated land and the numbers of dangerous events for hydraulic structures. These differences had been resulted from the different properties of both floods and the dyke strengthening efforts made after the 1998 flood. It is seen that flood control engineering constructions initiated in the days following the 1998 flood have played an important role in fighting the 1999 flood.展开更多
Accurate and reliable river flow information is critical to planning and management for sustainable water resources utilization. Most of engineering activities related to hydrologic designs, flood, drought, reservoirs...Accurate and reliable river flow information is critical to planning and management for sustainable water resources utilization. Most of engineering activities related to hydrologic designs, flood, drought, reservoirs and their operations are heavily dependent on the river flow information derived from river rating curve. The rating curve for a given river section is normally developed from a set of direct stage-discharge measurements for different periods. This involves considerable labour, risk and resources, and presupposes a complex and extensive measuring survey. Extrapolating the rating curve beyond the measured range, as common in many cases, is fraught with errors and uncertainties, due to the complex hydraulic behaviour of the surface water profile in transition from section, channel, downstream and flood plain controls which are often poorly understood with direct measurements. Hydraulic modeling has recently emerged as one of the more promising methods to efficiently develop accurate rating curves for a river section with simple or complex hydraulic structures and conditions. This paper explores the use of a Hydraulic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model to review and develop river rating curves for three hydrometric stations on two rivers in Kwale, coastal Kenya. The HEC-RAS models were set up based on topographical (cross section and longitudinal) survey data for the reaches and engineering drawings for the hydraulic structures commonly used as section controls for flow measurement. The model was calibrated under unsteady state conditions against measured stage-discharge data which were captured using a Velocity Current Meter (Valeport) and an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) for both low and high flow. The rating curves were extracted from model results and the uncertainty associated with each rating curve analyzed. The results obtained by the HEC-RAS model were satisfactory and deemed acceptable for predicting discharge across the stage range at each river section.展开更多
The Hanjiang Formation of Langhian age （middle Miocene） in the Pearl River Mouth Basin （PRMB）, South China Sea consists of deltaic siliciclastic and neritic shelf carbonate rhythmic alternations, which form one of...The Hanjiang Formation of Langhian age （middle Miocene） in the Pearl River Mouth Basin （PRMB）, South China Sea consists of deltaic siliciclastic and neritic shelf carbonate rhythmic alternations, which form one of the potential reservoirs of the basin. To improve stratigraphic resolutions for hydrocarbon prospecting and exploration in the basin, the present study undertakes spectral analysis of high-resolution natural gamma-ray （NGR） well-logging record to determine the dominant frequency components and test whether Milankovitch orbital signals are recorded in rhythmic successions. Analytical results indicate the orbital cycles of precession （~19 ka and ~23 ka）, obliquity （-41 ka）, and eccentricity （~100 ka and --405 ka）, which provide the strong evidence for astronomically driven climate changes in the rhythmic alternation successions. Within biochronological constraint, a high-resolution astronomical timescale was constructed through the astronomical tuning of the NGR record to recent astronomically calculated variation of Earth＇s orbit. The astronomically tuned timescale can be applied to calculate astronomical ages for the geological events and bioevents recognized throughout the period. The first downhole occurrences of foraminifers Globorotalia peripheroronda and Globigerinoides sicanus are dated at 14.546 Ma and 14.919 Ma, respectively, which are slightly different from earlier estimates in the South China Sea. When compared with the global sea-level change chart, the astronomical estimate for the sequences recognized based on microfossil distributions have the same end time but the different initiation time. This is probably due to the local or regional tectonic activities superimposed on eustatic rise which postponed the effect of global sea-level rising. Astronomical timescale also resolves the depositional evolution history for the Langhian Stage （middle Miocene） with a variation that strongly resembles that of Earth＇s orbital eccentricity predicted from 13.65 Ma to 15.97 Ma. We infer that the main factor controlling the variability of the sedimentation rate in the Hanjiang Formation is related to the ^-405-ka-period eccentricity.展开更多
A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time err...A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.展开更多
文摘<div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-family:Verdana;">Sensitivity analysis of neural networks to input variation is an important research area as it goes some way to addressing the criticisms of their black-box behaviour. Such analysis of RBFNs for hydrological modelling has previously been limited to exploring perturbations to both inputs and connecting weights. In this paper, the backward chaining rule that has been used for sensitivity analysis of MLPs, is applied to RBFNs and it is shown how such analysis can provide insight into physical relationships. A trigonometric example is first presented to show the effectiveness and accuracy of this approach for first order derivatives alongside a comparison of the results with an equivalent MLP. The paper presents a real-world application in the modelling of river stage shows the importance of such approaches helping to justify and select such models.</span> </div>
文摘There are abundant water power resources in the Yalong River which are suitable for the large hydroelectric engineering. But a reliability study should be made for the valley which liable to frequent earthquakes. The color infrared aerophotos, multi-spectral photography and thermal infrared scanning had been specially done besides MSS image, processing. Researches on remote sensing applications to engineering geology, hydrogeology, deformation of neo-tectonics, Iandslide, mud-rock flow, ecological environment and geographical information system had been carried out by more than 20 research units.
文摘Following the basin wide heavy flood on Changjiang River in 1998, a significant flood occurred in 1999. Comparative analysis of both floods in terms of flows and flooding situations shows that both floods had one common feature, that is, the flood stages were fairly high. But they differed greatly at the same time, that is, the 1998 flood was a basin wide heavy one while the 1999 flood was a significant local one. At Yichang station there occurred eight flood peaks in 1998, while in 1999 only three peaks took place. The maximum peak discharge at this station in 1999 was 57 600 cubic meters per second, which was smaller than that in 1998. The maximum flood-volume in 30 d of the 1998 flood at this station equaled that in 1954, when an extraordinary heavy flood happened on the River, while the maximum flood-volume in 30 d in 1999 was 25.8 billion cubic meters per second smaller than the 1998 one. It is seen that inflow floods from the upstream Changjiang River (above Yichang) in 1999 were not so big. Comparison of flood volumes in longer period shows that the 1999 flood was relatively concentrated while the 1998 one had lasted longer duration. Analysis shows that flooding situations in both years differed significantly in terms of the flood volumes diverted from river channels due to dyke breaches and collapses, the cases of polder embankment collapses, the areas of inundated cultivated land and the numbers of dangerous events for hydraulic structures. These differences had been resulted from the different properties of both floods and the dyke strengthening efforts made after the 1998 flood. It is seen that flood control engineering constructions initiated in the days following the 1998 flood have played an important role in fighting the 1999 flood.
文摘Accurate and reliable river flow information is critical to planning and management for sustainable water resources utilization. Most of engineering activities related to hydrologic designs, flood, drought, reservoirs and their operations are heavily dependent on the river flow information derived from river rating curve. The rating curve for a given river section is normally developed from a set of direct stage-discharge measurements for different periods. This involves considerable labour, risk and resources, and presupposes a complex and extensive measuring survey. Extrapolating the rating curve beyond the measured range, as common in many cases, is fraught with errors and uncertainties, due to the complex hydraulic behaviour of the surface water profile in transition from section, channel, downstream and flood plain controls which are often poorly understood with direct measurements. Hydraulic modeling has recently emerged as one of the more promising methods to efficiently develop accurate rating curves for a river section with simple or complex hydraulic structures and conditions. This paper explores the use of a Hydraulic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model to review and develop river rating curves for three hydrometric stations on two rivers in Kwale, coastal Kenya. The HEC-RAS models were set up based on topographical (cross section and longitudinal) survey data for the reaches and engineering drawings for the hydraulic structures commonly used as section controls for flow measurement. The model was calibrated under unsteady state conditions against measured stage-discharge data which were captured using a Velocity Current Meter (Valeport) and an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) for both low and high flow. The rating curves were extracted from model results and the uncertainty associated with each rating curve analyzed. The results obtained by the HEC-RAS model were satisfactory and deemed acceptable for predicting discharge across the stage range at each river section.
基金supported by Australian Research Council discovery grant(DP0770938 to ZQC)National Science and Technology Major Project (2011ZX05001-001-006)
文摘The Hanjiang Formation of Langhian age （middle Miocene） in the Pearl River Mouth Basin （PRMB）, South China Sea consists of deltaic siliciclastic and neritic shelf carbonate rhythmic alternations, which form one of the potential reservoirs of the basin. To improve stratigraphic resolutions for hydrocarbon prospecting and exploration in the basin, the present study undertakes spectral analysis of high-resolution natural gamma-ray （NGR） well-logging record to determine the dominant frequency components and test whether Milankovitch orbital signals are recorded in rhythmic successions. Analytical results indicate the orbital cycles of precession （~19 ka and ~23 ka）, obliquity （-41 ka）, and eccentricity （~100 ka and --405 ka）, which provide the strong evidence for astronomically driven climate changes in the rhythmic alternation successions. Within biochronological constraint, a high-resolution astronomical timescale was constructed through the astronomical tuning of the NGR record to recent astronomically calculated variation of Earth＇s orbit. The astronomically tuned timescale can be applied to calculate astronomical ages for the geological events and bioevents recognized throughout the period. The first downhole occurrences of foraminifers Globorotalia peripheroronda and Globigerinoides sicanus are dated at 14.546 Ma and 14.919 Ma, respectively, which are slightly different from earlier estimates in the South China Sea. When compared with the global sea-level change chart, the astronomical estimate for the sequences recognized based on microfossil distributions have the same end time but the different initiation time. This is probably due to the local or regional tectonic activities superimposed on eustatic rise which postponed the effect of global sea-level rising. Astronomical timescale also resolves the depositional evolution history for the Langhian Stage （middle Miocene） with a variation that strongly resembles that of Earth＇s orbital eccentricity predicted from 13.65 Ma to 15.97 Ma. We infer that the main factor controlling the variability of the sedimentation rate in the Hanjiang Formation is related to the ^-405-ka-period eccentricity.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 50479017)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Teams in Universities (Grant No IRT071)
文摘A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.
