Assessment of the macro-economic impacts of low-carbon road transportation policies in Chongqing,China

Reductions in the transportation sector's carbon dioxide emissions are increasingly of global concern.As one of the first low-carbon pilot and carbon trading pilot cities,and as one of the largest automobile production bases in China,Chongqing has multiple low-carbon transportation policies that are coupled.In this study,three policy scenarios are set,including:1)improving the fuel economy of newly sold gasoline passenger cars to 5.71 per 100 km by 2020,2)promoting pure electric private cars to increase the share to 7% of private car sales by 2020,and 3)the policy mix scenario of the above two policies.Simulations are undertaken with the Chinese Academy of Sciences general equilibrium(CAS-GE)model,a type of computable GE model,to assess the macro-economic impact and the industrial impact of the three policy scenarios.Through the policy impact mechanism analysis and data-mapping process,the micro-economic impact analysis results,including costs and fuel savings,for the two policies from the bottom-up model are taken as the shock variables and inputs for the CAS-GE model.The results show that:1)the two policies will both have a slightly negative impact(-0.09% and -0.30%)on Chongqing's GDP in 2020;2)the employment rate will decrease by 0.12% and 0.47%,but the inflation rate will be restrained to a certain extent(-0.21% and -0.17%);and 3)the complementarity of the mixed policy can weaken the negative impact of the two policies when implemented separately.The mixed policy will reduce the GDP slightly by 0.37%,compared with the cumulative effect of the two policies implemented separately,resulting in cost-effective synergies at the macroeconomic impact level;and 4)the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has an uncertain impact on the results.The method and results can provide a reference for the formulation and adjustment of low-carbon transportation policies in other large cities.