A “Dressed” Ensemble Kalman Filter Using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model in the Pacific

The computational cost required by the Ensemble Kalman Filter （EnKF） is much larger than that of some simpler assimilation schemes, such as Optimal Interpolation （OI） or three-dimension variational as- similation （3DVAR）. Ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI）, a crudely simplified implementation of EnKF, is sometimes used as a substitute in some oceanic applications and requires much less computational time than EnKF. In this paper, to compromise between computational cost and dynamic covariance, we use the idea of ＂dressing＂ a small size dynamical ensemble with a larger number of static ensembles in order to form an approximate dynamic covariance. The term ＂dressing＂ means that a dynamical ensemble seed from model runs is perturbed by adding the anomalies of some static ensembles. This dressing EnKF （DrEnKF for short） scheme is tested in assimilation of real altimetry data in the Pacific using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model （HYCOM） over a four-year period. Ten dynamical ensemble seeds are each dressed by 10 static ensemble members selected from a 100-member static ensemble. Results are compared to two EnKF assimilation runs that use 10 and 100 dynamical ensemble members. Both temperature and salinity fields from the DrEnKF and the EnKF are compared to observations from Argo floats and an OI SST dataset. The results show that the DrEnKF and the 100-member EnKF yield similar root mean square errors （RMSE） at every model level. Error covariance matrices from the DrEnKF and the 100-member EnKF are also compared and show good agreement.

Estimating the spatial distribution of organic carbon density for the soils of Ohio, USA

Historical database of National Soil Survey Center containing 1424 geo-referenced soil profiles was used in this study for estimating the organic carbon （SOC） for the soils of Ohio, USA. Specific objective of the study was to estimate the spatial distribution of SOC density （C stock per unit area） to 1.0-m depth for soils of Ohio using geographically weighted regression （GWR）, and compare the results with that obtained from multiple linear regression （MLR）. About 80% of the analytical data were used for calibration and 20% for validation. A total of 20 variables including terrain attributes, climate data, bedrock geology, and land use data were used for mapping the SOC density. Results showed that the GWR provided better estimations with the lowest （3.81 kg m-2） root mean square error （RMSE） than MLR approach Total estimated SOC pool for soils in Ohio ranged from 727 to 742 Tg. This study demon strates that, the local spatial statistical technique, the GWR can perform better in capturing the spatial distribution of SOC across the study region as compared to other global spatial statistical techniques such as MLR. Thus, GWR enhances the accuracy for mapping SOC density.

Regional Temperature Forecast for the Next Day in Hong Kong

For a century or so, the Hong Kong Observatory （HKO） has been providing temperature forecast for the whole of Hong Kong with the HKO Headquarters as the reference location. In recent decades, due to spreading of population from the main urban center to satellite towns, there is an increasing demand for regional temperature forecasts. To support such provision, the HKO has developed a regression model to provide objective guidance to forecasters in formulating forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for the next day at various locations in Hong Kong. In this paper, the regression model is presented, together with the assessment of its performance. Based on the verification of one year of forecasts, it is found that the root mean square errors （RMSEs） of maximum （minimum） temperature forecasts are from about 1.3 to 2.1 （1.1 to 1.4） degrees, respectively. The regression model is shown to have generally out-performed the operational regional spectral model then operated by HKO. Regional temperature forecast methods of other meteorological or research centers are also surveyed. Equipped with the regression model, the HKO has launched an online regional temperature forecast service for the next day in Hong Kong since March 2008.