The plasma optical boundary reconstruction technique based on Hommen's theory is promising for future tokamaks with high parameters. In this work, we conduct detailed analysis and simulation verification to estima...The plasma optical boundary reconstruction technique based on Hommen's theory is promising for future tokamaks with high parameters. In this work, we conduct detailed analysis and simulation verification to estimate the ‘logic loophole' of this technique. The finite-width effect and unpredictable errors reduce the technique's reliability, which leads to this loophole. Based on imaging theory, the photos of a virtual camera are simulated by integrating the assumed luminous intensity of plasma. Based on Hommen's theory, the plasma optical boundary is reconstructed from the photos. Comparing the reconstructed boundary with the one assumed, the logic loophole and its two effects are quantitatively estimated. The finite-width effect is related to the equivalent thickness of the luminous layer, which is generally about 2-4 cm but sometimes larger. The level of unpredictable errors is around 0.65 cm. The technique based on Hommen's theory is generally reliable, but finite-width effect and unpredictable errors have to be taken into consideration in some scenarios. The parameters of HL-2M are applied in this work.展开更多
Persistent Heavy Rainfall(PHR)is the most influential extreme weather event in Asia in summer,and thus it has attracted intensive interests of many scientists.In this study,operational global ensemble forecasts from C...Persistent Heavy Rainfall(PHR)is the most influential extreme weather event in Asia in summer,and thus it has attracted intensive interests of many scientists.In this study,operational global ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration(CMA)are used,and a new verification method applied to evaluate the predictability of PHR is investigated.A metrics called Index of Composite Predictability(ICP)established on basic verification indicators,i.e.,Equitable Threat Score(ETS)of 24 h accumulated precipitation and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of Height at 500 h Pa,are selected in this study to distinguish"good"and"poor"prediction from all ensemble members.With the use of the metrics of ICP,the predictability of two typical PHR events in June 2010 and June 2011 is estimated.The results show that the"good member"and"poor member"can be identified by ICP and there is an obvious discrepancy in their ability to predict the key weather system that affects PHR."Good member"shows a higher predictability both in synoptic scale and mesoscale weather system in their location,duration and the movement.The growth errors for"poor"members is mainly due to errors of initial conditions in northern polar region.The growth of perturbation errors and the reason for better or worse performance of ensemble member also have great value for future model improvement and further research.展开更多
In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.Thi...In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.This technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon dissipates.Using a contingency table,skill scores,chance,and probabilities are computed.It is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts,while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h forecasting.For both the 2008 and 2009 seasons,the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error(6 m s-1) tended to decrease steadily.Some of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores,but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors > 15 m s-1 were not the highest.展开更多
利用加密自动气象观测站资料、ERA5再分析资料和欧洲中心ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)模式、中国气象局CMA-MESO(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model)模式产品,对2020年7月17—18日江...利用加密自动气象观测站资料、ERA5再分析资料和欧洲中心ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)模式、中国气象局CMA-MESO(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model)模式产品,对2020年7月17—18日江淮地区一次特大暴雨过程的预报效果进行检验与分析,并对数值模式降水预报出现偏差的可能原因进行了讨论。结果表明:低涡切变和低层急流的共同影响,为强降水提供了充沛的水汽和有利的动力条件。高空干冷空气叠加在低层暖区之上形成的位势不稳定层结和垂直风切变为强降水的发生提供了不稳定条件。17日20时—19日08时CMA-MESO模式逐12 h暴雨、大暴雨以及暴雨以上量级降水的TS评分均优于ECMWF模式,但2种模式对18日08—20时暖区降水的预报结果均较差。CMA-MESO模式预报的降水区域和实况区域重叠面积的比例均显著高于ECMWF模式,预报形态也与实况更为接近。模式对冷空气强度预报偏弱造成了冷切辐合偏北,对中层湿舌的位置预报偏北,水汽强度预报偏弱,与强降水落区预报偏北相对应,可能是降水预报出现明显偏差的原因。展开更多
基金supported by the Tsinghua University 2021 Doctoral Summer Projectsupported by the National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2018YFE0301102)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11875020 and 11875023)。
文摘The plasma optical boundary reconstruction technique based on Hommen's theory is promising for future tokamaks with high parameters. In this work, we conduct detailed analysis and simulation verification to estimate the ‘logic loophole' of this technique. The finite-width effect and unpredictable errors reduce the technique's reliability, which leads to this loophole. Based on imaging theory, the photos of a virtual camera are simulated by integrating the assumed luminous intensity of plasma. Based on Hommen's theory, the plasma optical boundary is reconstructed from the photos. Comparing the reconstructed boundary with the one assumed, the logic loophole and its two effects are quantitatively estimated. The finite-width effect is related to the equivalent thickness of the luminous layer, which is generally about 2-4 cm but sometimes larger. The level of unpredictable errors is around 0.65 cm. The technique based on Hommen's theory is generally reliable, but finite-width effect and unpredictable errors have to be taken into consideration in some scenarios. The parameters of HL-2M are applied in this work.
基金National 973 Program of China(2012CB417204)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41075035,41475044)Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest(GYHY201006015)
文摘Persistent Heavy Rainfall(PHR)is the most influential extreme weather event in Asia in summer,and thus it has attracted intensive interests of many scientists.In this study,operational global ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration(CMA)are used,and a new verification method applied to evaluate the predictability of PHR is investigated.A metrics called Index of Composite Predictability(ICP)established on basic verification indicators,i.e.,Equitable Threat Score(ETS)of 24 h accumulated precipitation and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of Height at 500 h Pa,are selected in this study to distinguish"good"and"poor"prediction from all ensemble members.With the use of the metrics of ICP,the predictability of two typical PHR events in June 2010 and June 2011 is estimated.The results show that the"good member"and"poor member"can be identified by ICP and there is an obvious discrepancy in their ability to predict the key weather system that affects PHR."Good member"shows a higher predictability both in synoptic scale and mesoscale weather system in their location,duration and the movement.The growth errors for"poor"members is mainly due to errors of initial conditions in northern polar region.The growth of perturbation errors and the reason for better or worse performance of ensemble member also have great value for future model improvement and further research.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421505)the Shanghai Typhoon Foundation (2009ST09)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40775060)the Program of China Mete-orological Administration (GYHY201006008 and GYHY200906002)
文摘In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.This technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon dissipates.Using a contingency table,skill scores,chance,and probabilities are computed.It is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts,while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h forecasting.For both the 2008 and 2009 seasons,the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error(6 m s-1) tended to decrease steadily.Some of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores,but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors > 15 m s-1 were not the highest.
