The trend on runoff variations in the Lhasa River Basin

Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.

Runoff of the upper Yellow River above Tangnag: characteristics, evolution and changing trends

Runoff and its evolution, based on hydrometeorological data from surface measurement stations, are analyzed for the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag. Some mathematical statistical models, for example, Period Extrapolation-Gradual Regression Model, Grey Topology Forecast Model and Box-Jinkins Model, are applied in predicting changing trends on the runoff. The analysis indicates that the runoff volume in the upper Yellow River above Tangnag is ending a period of extended minimum flows. Increasing runoff is expected in the coming years.

北方主要河流水沙变异及其成因

为研究我国北方河流的水沙变异及主要成因,本文利用M-K检验法和水文量累积曲线法,分析了1950—2020年我国北方河流代表站径流量和输沙量的变化特征,探讨了影响北方河流水沙变化的主要因素。结果表明,淮河代表站年径流量没有明显的变化趋势,其他北方河流的年径流量具有减小或显著减小趋势;松花江代表站年输沙量无趋势变化,其他北方河流代表站年输沙量都有显著减少趋势;影响北方河流水沙变化的主要因素包括水土保持、水库拦沙、流域降水变化、引水引沙与泥沙综合利用、工程建设等,其中水土保持是北方河流流域保水减沙的主要措施,水库拦沙在江河水沙态势变异中发挥重要作用,流域降水变化也是北方河流水沙变异的影响因素,引水引沙与泥沙综合利用也对北方平原河流水沙变化发挥一定的作用。

2000-2021年新疆植被覆盖度变化及驱动力

[目的]探讨2000—2021年新疆植被覆盖变化及其驱动力的分析,为新疆地区环境监测提供理论依据。[方法]借助GEE平台获取由NASA提供的NDVI数据,利用趋势分析、Hurst指数法对新疆地区2000—2021年植被覆盖变化进行动态分析,结合气象等数据,采用Mann-Kendall、偏相关分析法等对植被覆盖变化与气候、地表因素的响应进行分析。[结果](1)2000—2021年新疆地区NDVI年际变化总体以0.0014/a的速率波动式增长;年内变化总体呈倒U型,草甸植被的NDVI月均值波动最大。(2)2000—2021年新疆地区NDVI年均值77.9%在0~0.3波动,在空间分布表现为北部和西北部高,南部和东南部低。(3)2000—2021年新疆地区总体slope值在-0.036~0.052波动,主要变化趋势为基本不变和轻微改善,结合Hurst指数,新疆植被主要未来趋势变化为改善到退化。(4)22年间新疆地区的气温总体呈上升趋势,降水、土壤湿度和径流总体呈下降趋势。NDVI年均值与气温、降水、土壤湿度和径流呈显著负相关性的像元数占比均大于正相关性的像元数占比,且存在明显的空间地域特征。[结论]新疆植被覆盖变化总体呈上升趋势,但未来趋势不容乐观,需要重点关注新疆地区的环境监测等保护措施。

Runoff variations in the Luanhe River Basin during 1956-2002

The decrease of runoff in the Luanhe river basin, which caused water crisis in Tian-jin for several times, was investigated using discharge data covering the period 1956-2002. The data from the differential integral curves of the annual runoff indicate that the decreasing point began in 1979 in the six sub-basins. The decrease of runoff in the Luanhe river basin resulted from the combination of climate effects and human activities, in which the latter plays an important role. This can be illustrated by noting that after 1979 the runoff generated by similar precipitation decreased under the condition that the total precipitation did not decrease in the entire basin. As a result, the annual runoff of the Luanhe river basin after 1979 decreased by about 6.46×10^8 m^3 each year. To analyze the runoff characteristics, it is inadequate to seek the runoff trends only and the identification of cyclical component of the runoff as accurate as possible is necessary. From the natural annual runoff discharge time series, we can see the annual runoff fluctuates around the long-term average. Analyzed by VRL （Variable Record Length） method, the main periods of 3, 5-6, 7, 9, 16-20 and 37-39 years were found. The last decade causing water crisis was the driest period in the history, and this condition will last several years from trend analysis and power spectrum analysis. So finding new water sources is urgent to solve water crisis in Tianjin city, and the South-North Water Transfer is a feasible option.

1960—2020年黄河、长江、珠江入海水沙通量演变特征

[目的]基于动态更新数据综合对比中国三大河流入海水沙通量的特征,为流域开发和管理提供依据。[方法]收集黄河(利津站)、长江(大通站)、珠江(高要站、石角站、博罗站)5个水文控制站1960—2020年实测数据,采用滑动平均法、Pettitt检验法、双累积曲线法以及小波变换分别对水沙通量的趋势性、变异性、周期性特征进行分析,采用交叉小波变换和小波相干谱探究径流量和泥沙量的共振周期与相干性。[结果]近60a黄河、长江、珠江入海水沙通量均发生了明显变化,黄河径流量和泥沙量在1986年突变减少,泥沙量在1997年二次突变减少;长江和珠江入海径流量未发生变异,泥沙量分别于1992,1999年突变减少。这三大河流入海水沙具有显著的年际和年代际周期特征,年代际共同演化周期分别集中于1980年以前、1990年以前和2000年以前。年际共同演化周期为5a,“丰—枯”转换频繁。交叉小波分析结果显示,黄河、长江和珠江的入海径流量和泥沙量在1965—1975年具有显著的1~3a的共振周期,以正相位演变为主。[结论]中国三大河流入海水沙具有显著的趋势性、变异性和周期性特征,可以据此进行的流域开发和管理更有效。

基于BCC-CSM2-MR模式的开都河流域未来气温降水趋势分析及径流模拟

径流的趋势变化影响着流域居民的生产生活,在全球变暖的背景下分析流域未来气候变化和径流演变趋势对指导流域生产生活有着重要意义。为此,以国家气候中心研发的BCC-CSM2-MR模式作为气象数据,分析了开都河流域未来不同排放情景下降水和气温的变化情况,并以此数据驱动SWAT模型模拟了不同气候情景下径流变化情况。结果表明,在4种气候情景下流域平均气温均有所上升,其中SSP5-8.5情景下气温上升最为明显,降水则会出现一定波动,流域未来径流在枯水期差异较小,径流受气候变化影响的差异主要体现在汛期。

邯郸多个水文站近60年径流量变化特征分析

漳卫河水系和子牙河水系是邯郸河流的重要组成部分,为探究其径流量的变化特征,选取刘家庄、观台、东武仕、木鼻四个水文站近60 a实测径流量为研究对象,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall检验法、Morlet小波分析法从趋势性、突变性、周期性的角度分别对其变化特征进行分析,结果表明:(1)在1956-2016年间,刘家庄、观台、东武仕三站的年径流量均呈现出下降的趋势,而木鼻站的年径流量呈现出上升趋势。(2)刘家庄、观台、木鼻站年径流量序列的突变年份分别为1972年、1978年、1956年和2002年,东武仕站年径流量序列不存在突变年份。(3)刘家庄站和东武仕站年径流量序列周期大致为14 a,观台站和木鼻站年径流量序列周期大致为13年。(4)流域的年径流量总体呈现出下降的趋势,突变多发生在70年代,径流周期为14 a左右。

水库运用对金沙江下游水沙变化的影响

大型水库运用后,金沙江下游水沙时空分布发生重大变化。本文基于金沙江下游干支流水沙观测资料,分析了下游流域水沙时空分布特性。1954-2021年,金沙江下游径流主要来源为金沙江中游及雅砻江,两者年均径流量为1150.73亿m^(3),占总来水量的80.75%;年输沙量主要来自下游区间,其年均来沙量为9943.17万t,占总输沙量的48.12%。运用Mann-Kendall突变检验、R/S分析以及双累积曲线法,分析水库运用对金沙江下游水沙变化趋势的影响。结果表明:1954-2021年金沙江下游水库运用对年径流量变化趋势无明显影响,而对流域年输沙量影响显著。金沙江下游出口水沙关系在1998、2010及2012年发生突变,主要原因为雅砻江、金沙江中游、下游干流上大型水库的拦沙运用,导致下游出口含沙量由1.82 kg/m^(3)逐步降低为1.31、0.86、0.01 kg/m^(3)。利用金沙江下游干支流水沙关系及沙量平衡原理,分别计算局部区间水库拦沙对流域总减沙量的贡献度。1998-2009年二滩水电站建成运行,金沙江下游出口总减沙率为35.16%,雅砻江水库拦沙对下游总减沙贡献度为32.88%;2010-2012年金安桥等中游水电站运行后,下游出口总减沙率为51.43%,金沙江中游、雅砻江、三堆子至白鹤滩区间和白鹤滩至向家坝区间对下游总减沙贡献度分别为21.54%、23.10%、30.67%、24.69%;2013-2021年金沙江下游梯级水库运行后,下游出口总减沙率为99.37%,4个区间对来沙量减少的贡献度分别为19.64%、14.72%、12.34%、53.30%。

基于SSA-BP神经网络模型的全球入海径流量未来变化趋势

入海径流是水循环的重要环节,探究气候变化背景下全球入海径流量的时空变化特征,可为水资源合理利用提供依据。基于全球376条外流河逐月流量、ERA5-LAND再分析资料和10个全球气候模式,构建基于SSA-BP神经网络的降水径流关系模型,分析全球入海径流量在历史时期(1961—2020年)和未来(2021—2100年)3种情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下的时空变化特征。研究发现:(1)全球尺度上,1961—2020年,多年平均入海年径流量为37423 km^(3)。2021—2100年,全球入海年径流量在未来3种情景下均呈增加趋势,SSP1-2.6情景下趋势显著。与基准期相比,21世纪末期增幅最大。(2)洲际尺度上,历史时期,非洲入海径流量呈显著减少趋势,北美洲呈显著增加趋势。2021—2100年,亚洲、北美洲在3种情景下呈增加趋势,大洋洲呈减少趋势,其余各大洲情景间差异明显。(3)纬向分布上,历史时期,南北半球低纬度变化趋势不显著;北半球中纬度呈弱减少趋势,南半球中纬度呈显著减少趋势;北半球高纬度呈显著增加趋势。2021—2100年,从低到高排放情景,入海径流在北半球低纬度的增加趋势和在南半球低纬度的减少趋势愈发显著;北半球中高纬由低排放情景的显著增加转变为中高排放情景的显著减少;南半球中纬度在低排放情景下呈显著增加趋势,在中高排放情景下趋势不显著。

近67年大通河流域径流量时序变化特征及演变趋势研究

为有效掌握大通河流域径流量的变化特征及演变趋势,精准服务水资源管理,本文采用流域控制站的实测径流资料,采用不均匀系数分析法、完全调节系数法、一元线性回归法、5年滑动平均法、Maan-Kendall非参数检验法对大通河流域径流量从年内分配、年际变化、变异年份及演变趋势多角度进行研究,结果表明:大通河径流量年内分配极不均匀,极值比相差较大,径流主要集中在7、8、9月份,随着年份的延长,年内分配越来越均匀,集中程度越来越弱;年际变化较稳定,出现显著性减小趋势;近67年来,径流量共减少了4.08亿m^(3),减小率为0.061亿m^(3)/a,跨流域调水是造成径流量减少的主要原因;径流量在1961年、2003年、2010年出现变异。研究可为流域水资源合理配置、河湖管理、工农业生产用水提供参考依据。

乐昌峡水利枢纽年径流变化特征及趋势分析

为优化乐昌峡水利枢纽调度工作,利用变差系数、径流水文频率、Spearman秩次相关检验、Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法对坝址处年径流变化特征和长期趋势性开展相关分析,结果表明,枢纽建库前后不同长度序列的水文年径流特征变化不大;年径流大小分级可利用水文频率划分为丰水(含特丰)、偏丰、平水、偏枯、枯水(含特枯)等5个等级;在1958—2022年年径流序列中,特枯年均发生在20世纪60年代,特丰年均发生在1997年之后,2004年后连续18 a未发生过枯水年;坝址处1958—2022年逐年径流长期趋势不显著,但是构造6 a以上滑动平均新的序列有长期上升的趋势;利用Mann-Kendall突变检验发现6 a滑动平均新序列在1972年标签处开始发生突变。

1998-2022年黄河中游水沙变化趋势分析

黄河中游是黄河泥沙来源的主要产区,为明确近二十多年来该区域水沙变化特征,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析黄河中游头道拐、龙门、潼关、三门峡和花园口5个水文站的1998-2022年径流量和输沙量的变化特征。结果表明:在研究时段内,除龙门水文站外,其余4个水文站的径流量都呈现出极显著增加趋势,输沙量除头道拐外,其余4个水文站均呈现下降趋势;5个水文站径流量的突变年份主要集中在2005-2008年,输沙量的突变年份无明显规律性,且部分水文站在该研究时段内并未出现突变;小波变换得到研究区径流量和输沙量存在多尺度的周期性变化,径流量的第一主周期集中在27~28a的时间尺度,输沙量的第一主周期集中在10a及31a时间尺度,周期震荡最为剧烈。

1986-2018年黄土丘陵区典型小流域不同水文年水沙变化

[目的]探讨黄土丘陵区罗玉沟典型小流域水沙变化趋势以及不同水文年径流输沙对水土流失治理的响应差异,量化降水和人类活动对流域水沙影响的相对贡献,以期为黄土丘陵第三副区流域水土流失治理和水资源管理提供参考。[方法]基于罗玉沟流域1986—2018年的降雨、径流、输沙等数据,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、累积距平法及双累积曲线法分析流域水沙变化趋势及驱动因素。[结果]1986—2018年罗玉沟流域河流由常流河转变为季节性河流,干河日数显著上升(p<0.01),2000年以来干河日数多在300 d以上;同期,罗玉沟流域径流输沙显著下降(p<0.05),与基准期1986—1993年相比,1994—2007年减水减沙率分别为61.9%,44.3%,2008—2018年径流输沙分别减少67.5%,76.4%;在2008—2018年平水年和枯水年间罗玉沟流域输沙模数分别为(1 080.0±107.5) t/km^(2),(167.8±111.4) t/km^(2),而在暴雨频发丰水年,输沙模数仍接近4 000 t/km^(2);流域产流产沙能力降低,水沙关系发生改变,相同径流条件下输沙量减少,即流域径流含沙量水平降低,开始变清;相比降雨变化而言,人类活动是流域水沙变化的主导因素,1994—2007年人类活动对减水减沙的贡献率分别为83.3%和79.5%,而2008—2018年人类活动的贡献率分别为91.8%,94.4%,表明流域水沙变化受人类活动影响越来越大,其中,坡改梯及退耕还林还草工程是主要影响因素。[结论]因沟道治理工程建设不足,罗玉沟流域在丰水年因沟道重力侵蚀导致流域输沙仍然剧烈,因此,需要加强沟道治理进一步减少流域水土流失。

中洲河流域降水径流变化趋势特征分析

以中洲河流域1970—2021年长系列年径流、逐月降水量等资料为基础数据,分析流域降水径流年际变化和年内分配规律,并应用Mann-Kendall法对流域降水、径流变化特征进行分析,结果表明:①中洲河流域多年平均降水量为2222 mm,多年平均径流量为11.92亿m^(3),多年平均径流深为1356 mm;年降水量及年径流量年际变化很大,年内分配不均匀;②流域全年、汛期、枯水期径流量总体呈下降趋势,其中枯水期下降趋势显著;③流域全年及枯水期降水量总体呈上升趋势,其中枯水期上升趋势显著;④20世纪90年代以后,流域枯水期降水量和径流量突变特征差异明显,枯水期水文规律受人类活动影响明显。

南太子河流域降雨-径流特征分析

本文采用南太子河流域南甸站1958-2022年的年降雨径流数据,通过Mann-Kendall趋势分析法分析近65年来流域降雨径流的趋势及突变点,应用EEMD分析方法进行多时间尺度分析,提取出该流域降雨、径流的年际频率特征,为该流域防汛、抗旱、水利规划提供依据。

Surface runoff processes and sustainable utilization of water resources in Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China

Water is the important resource to guarantee the existence and development of oases in arid areas. To improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in Manas River Basin, this paper investigated the trends and periods of runoff based on the runoff and climate data for the past 50 years. Subsequently, with the socioeconomic and water resources data, we studied a comprehensive evaluation on the water security in this area. The results indicated that the stream flows in the three hydrological stations of Hongshanzui, Kensiwat and Bajiahu have sig- nificantly increased and undergone abrupt changes, with periods of 18 and 20 years. According to assessment, water security in the Manas River Basin was at an unsafe level in 2008. In criterion layer, the ecological security index and the index of supply-demand situation are both at the relatively secure level; the quantity index and so- cioeconomic index of water resources are at the unsafe level and basic security level, respectively. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development within the Manas River Basin, it is vital to take a series of effective measures to improve the status of water security.

Impacts of precipitation variation and soil and water conservation measures on runoff and sediment yield in the Loess Plateau Gully Region, China

The Loess Plateau of China has experienced a lengthy drought and severe soil erosion.Changes in precipitation and land use largely determine the dynamics of runoff and sediment yield in this region. Trend and mutation analyses were performed on hydrological data(1981–2012) from the Yanwachuan watershed in the Loess Plateau Gully Region to study the evolution characteristics of runoff and sediment yield. A time-series contrasting method also was used to evaluate the effects of precipitation and soil and water conservation(SWC) on runoff and sediment yield. Annual sediment yield declined markedly from 1981 to 2012 although there was no significant change in annual precipitation and annual runoff. Change points of annual runoff and annual sediment yield occurred in 1996 and 1997,respectively. Compared with that in the baseline period(1981–1996), annual runoff and annual sediment yield in the change period(1997–2012)decreased by 17.0% and 76.0%, respectively, but annual precipitation increased by 6.3%. Runoff decreased in the flood season and normal season, but increased in the dry season, while sediment yield significantly declined in the whole study period. The SWC measures contributed significantly to the reduction of annual runoff(137.9%) and annual sediment yield(135%) and were more important than precipitation. Biological measures(forestland and grassland) accounted for 61.04% of total runoff reduction, while engineering measures(terraces and dams) accounted for 102.84% of total sediment yield reduction. Furthermore, SWC measures had positive ecological effects. This study provides a scientific basis for soil erosion control on the Loess Plateau.

Effects of land-use pattern change on rainfall-runoff and runoff-sediment relations:a case study in Zichang watershed of the Loess Plateau of China

The purpose of this article is to identify the effect of land use pattern on rainfall runoff and runoff sediment relations in Zichang Watershed of the Loess Plateau. From 1986 to 1997, many farmlands changed into grassland or woodland, especially the farmland in steep slope positions or far away from the river. The change of land use pattern altered the rainfall runoff and runoff sediment relationships, and led to higher slope of trend curves(STCs) of annual rainfall runoff mass curve and runoff sediment mass curve in 1990s than that in 1980s. It is implied that more soil and water loss yielded in 1990s. In order to reduce soil loss, more attentions should be paid to land use pattern and some grass or other herbaceous filter strips should be built along rivers.

Analysis of Runoff into Reservoir Change Pattern and Causes in Fenhe Reservoir

Based on the 58 years monthly flow data (from 1956 to 2013) editing by Jingle hydrological station of Fen River and Shangjinyou station, data resources are used to analyze the annual and inter-annual changes from spatial and temporal scale by statistical methods, mainly annual spatial and temporal distribution, trend of inter-annual changes, cycle and mutation changes. The reasons of runoff into reservoir changes are deeply analyzed by annual precipitation data of catchments above Fenhe Reservoir 1956 to 2013 and the land and water reservation methods which are implemented recently. It shows that there is a significant decrease of the inter-annual run-off with main and second cycle periods, 23a and 13a respectively. Furthermore, it exists mutation point between 1970 and 1971 through runoff series. As for further analysis of the causes of Fenhe Reservoir runoff changes, it illustrates that the change of precipitation is the main reason the facilitate runoff changes. Also, the land and water reservation methods which are implemented in upstream of Fenhe Reservoir increase water storage capacity of soil, showing it non-ignorable effect to runoff changes.