Climate change influences both ecosystems and ecosystem services.The impacts of climate change on ecosystems and ecosystem services have been separately documented.However,it is less well known how ecosystem changes d...Climate change influences both ecosystems and ecosystem services.The impacts of climate change on ecosystems and ecosystem services have been separately documented.However,it is less well known how ecosystem changes driven by climate change will influence ecosystem services,especially in climate-sensitive regions.Here,we analyzed future climate trends between 2040 and 2100 under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP) scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6).We quantified their impacts on ecosystems patterns and on the ecosystem service of sandstorm prevention on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world,using Random Forest model(RF) and Revised Wind Erosion Equation(RWEQ).Strong warming(0.04℃/yr) and wetting(0.65 mm/yr) trends were projected from 2015 to 2100.Under these trends,there will be increased interspersion in the pattern of grassland and sparse vegetation with meadow and swamp vegetation,although their overall area will remain similar,while the areas of shrub and needleleaved forest classes will increase and move toward higher altitudes.Driven by the changes in ecosystem patterns caused by climate change indirectly,grassland will play an irreplaceable role in providing sandstorm prevention services,and sandstorm prevention services will increase gradually from 2040 to 2100(1.059-1.070 billion tons) on the QTP.However,some areas show a risk of deterioration in the future and these should be the focus of ecological rehabilitation.Our research helps to understand the cascading relationship among climate change,ecosystem patterns and ecosystem services,which provides important spatio-temporal information for future ecosystem service management.展开更多
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) (Grant No.2019QZKK0307)。
文摘Climate change influences both ecosystems and ecosystem services.The impacts of climate change on ecosystems and ecosystem services have been separately documented.However,it is less well known how ecosystem changes driven by climate change will influence ecosystem services,especially in climate-sensitive regions.Here,we analyzed future climate trends between 2040 and 2100 under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP) scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6).We quantified their impacts on ecosystems patterns and on the ecosystem service of sandstorm prevention on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world,using Random Forest model(RF) and Revised Wind Erosion Equation(RWEQ).Strong warming(0.04℃/yr) and wetting(0.65 mm/yr) trends were projected from 2015 to 2100.Under these trends,there will be increased interspersion in the pattern of grassland and sparse vegetation with meadow and swamp vegetation,although their overall area will remain similar,while the areas of shrub and needleleaved forest classes will increase and move toward higher altitudes.Driven by the changes in ecosystem patterns caused by climate change indirectly,grassland will play an irreplaceable role in providing sandstorm prevention services,and sandstorm prevention services will increase gradually from 2040 to 2100(1.059-1.070 billion tons) on the QTP.However,some areas show a risk of deterioration in the future and these should be the focus of ecological rehabilitation.Our research helps to understand the cascading relationship among climate change,ecosystem patterns and ecosystem services,which provides important spatio-temporal information for future ecosystem service management.
