A back-propagation neural network （BPNN） was used to establish relationships between the shortrange （0-3-h） rainfall and the predictors ranging from extrapolative forecasts of radar reflectivity, satelliteestimate...A back-propagation neural network （BPNN） was used to establish relationships between the shortrange （0-3-h） rainfall and the predictors ranging from extrapolative forecasts of radar reflectivity, satelliteestimated cloud-top temperature, lightning strike rates, and Nested Grid Model （NGM） outputs. Quan- titative precipitation forecasts （QPF） and the probabilities of categorical precipitation were obtained. Results of the BPNN algorithm were compared to the results obtained from the multiple linear regression algorithm for an independent dataset from the 1999 warm season over the continental United States. A sample forecast was made over the southeastern United States. Results showed that the BPNN categorical rainfall forecasts agreed well with Stage Ⅲ observations in terms of the size and shape of the area of rainfall. The BPNN tended to over-forecast the spatial extent of heavier rainfall amounts, but the positioning of the areas with rainfall ≥25.4 mm was still generally accurate. It appeared that the BPNN and linear regression approaches produce forecasts of very similar quality, although in some respects BPNN slightly outperformed the regression.展开更多
Atmospheric Rivers(ARs) are narrow and elongated water vapor belts in troposphere with meridional transport across the mid-latitudes towards high-latitudes. Compared with ARs occurred over the northeastern Pacific, th...Atmospheric Rivers(ARs) are narrow and elongated water vapor belts in troposphere with meridional transport across the mid-latitudes towards high-latitudes. Compared with ARs occurred over the northeastern Pacific, the western coast of North America and Europe, the ARs over the East Asia have received less attention. In this paper, the characteristics of ARs which affected China in the area 20?–60?N, 95?–165?E in the middle summer season from 2001 to 2016 were investigated by using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data and Multi-functional Transport Satellites-1 R(MTSAT-1 R) infrared data. Totally, 134 ARs occurred during that period, and averagely 8.4 ARs occurred per year. Statistically, 101 ARs were in east-west orientation, and 33 ARs were in north-south orientation, which accounts for about 75% and 25%, respectively. Herein we report the occurrence number, duration time, intensity, length, width, ratio of length to width, and extension orientation of these ARs, which provide the basic information for those who have interest in ARs over the East Asia.展开更多
文摘A back-propagation neural network （BPNN） was used to establish relationships between the shortrange （0-3-h） rainfall and the predictors ranging from extrapolative forecasts of radar reflectivity, satelliteestimated cloud-top temperature, lightning strike rates, and Nested Grid Model （NGM） outputs. Quan- titative precipitation forecasts （QPF） and the probabilities of categorical precipitation were obtained. Results of the BPNN algorithm were compared to the results obtained from the multiple linear regression algorithm for an independent dataset from the 1999 warm season over the continental United States. A sample forecast was made over the southeastern United States. Results showed that the BPNN categorical rainfall forecasts agreed well with Stage Ⅲ observations in terms of the size and shape of the area of rainfall. The BPNN tended to over-forecast the spatial extent of heavier rainfall amounts, but the positioning of the areas with rainfall ≥25.4 mm was still generally accurate. It appeared that the BPNN and linear regression approaches produce forecasts of very similar quality, although in some respects BPNN slightly outperformed the regression.
基金supported by the National Na-tural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41775042 and 41275049)。
文摘Atmospheric Rivers(ARs) are narrow and elongated water vapor belts in troposphere with meridional transport across the mid-latitudes towards high-latitudes. Compared with ARs occurred over the northeastern Pacific, the western coast of North America and Europe, the ARs over the East Asia have received less attention. In this paper, the characteristics of ARs which affected China in the area 20?–60?N, 95?–165?E in the middle summer season from 2001 to 2016 were investigated by using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data and Multi-functional Transport Satellites-1 R(MTSAT-1 R) infrared data. Totally, 134 ARs occurred during that period, and averagely 8.4 ARs occurred per year. Statistically, 101 ARs were in east-west orientation, and 33 ARs were in north-south orientation, which accounts for about 75% and 25%, respectively. Herein we report the occurrence number, duration time, intensity, length, width, ratio of length to width, and extension orientation of these ARs, which provide the basic information for those who have interest in ARs over the East Asia.
