The idea and project of the “Medium－Scale Experiment Field for Earthquake Prediction”──Research on observations and applications of mining earthquake in Mentougou Coal Mine

A brief account of the development of the research on mining earthquakes and the general situation of the Mentougou Coal Mine medium scale experiment field for earthquake prediction and the project of monitor and prediction is given. The differences of waveforms between mining earthquakes and natural earthquakes is discussed. The magnitude frequency distribution of the 79 000 mining earthquakes of over M L1.0 from 1984 to 1995 is summarized . Finally, taking PH and PV, the principal compressive stress components of the focal mechanism of the mining earthquakes, as the criteria, analyses the stress background of the 12 large mining earthquakes.

Chaotic phenomenon and the maximum predictable time scale of observation series of urban hourly water consumption

The chaotic characteristics and maximum predictable time scale of the observation series of hourly water consumption in Hangzhou were investigated using the advanced algorithm presented here is based on the conventional Wolf's algorithm for the largest Lyapunov exponent. For comparison, the largest Lyapunov exponents of water consumption series with one-hour and 24-hour intervals were calculated respectively. The results indicated that chaotic characteristics obviously exist in the hourly water consumption system; and that observation series with 24-hour interval have longer maximum predictable scale than hourly series. These findings could have significant practical application for better prediction of urban hourly water consumption.

Research on Prediction of the Scale of OTC Drug Market in China Based on Quantitative Analysis

Objective To analyze the scale of domestic OTC drug market and its influencing factors,so as to predict its future market and provide a scientific basis for pharmaceutical enterprises to grasp the opportunities in the market.Methods The scale of OTC drug market from 1999 to 2018 in China and its influencing factors were analyzed by unit root test,Granger causality test and co-integration test.Results and Conclusion From the perspective of the global pharmaceutical market,OTC drug market has broad prospects and great development potential.Since the influence of GDP and the number of elderly populations on the scale of OTC drug market is positive,the predicted growth rate of OTC market in the next three years is 5.82%,5.86%and 5.90%,respectively.

Comparative Study of Response Surface Designs with Errors-in-Variables Model

This paper investigates the scaled prediction variances in the errors-in-variables model and compares the performance with those in classic model of response surface designs for three factors.The ordinary least squares estimators of regression coefficients are derived from a second-order response surface model with errors in variables.Three performance criteria are proposed.The first is the difference between the empirical mean of maximum value of scaled prediction variance with errors and the maximum value of scaled prediction variance without errors.The second is the mean squared deviation from the mean of simulated maximum scaled prediction variance with errors.The last performance measure is the mean squared scaled prediction variance change with and without errors.In the simulations,1 000 random samples were performed following three factors with 20 experimental runs for central composite designs and 15 for Box-Behnken design.The independent variables are coded variables in these designs.Comparative results show that for the low level errors in variables,central composite face-centered design is optimal;otherwise,Box-Behnken design has a relatively better performance.

Seasonal Variation Features of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks with Their Predictability

Analysis is done of monthly and seasonal variations as climatic features of the tracks from 1196 tropical cyclones originating in the western North Pacific over the period 1949 to 1980, followed by the investigation of 301 onland cyclone tracks over China mainland in terms of methodology for nonlinear system. Obtained by computing the accumulated distance distribution function of the tracks Cm (l) is the characteristic chaos quantity for the related dynamic systems and then the fractual dimensionality d = 4.86 and Kolmogorov entropy approximation K2 = 0.0164, thereby leading to the predictability time scale = 2.54 days. It is found that the reference path among the onland typhoon No.23 of 1971, or Bess in the international nomenclature. Our results could be of operational use as a kind of reference.