Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis

Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.

Validation and Scenario Analysis of a Soil Organic Carbon Model

A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general a-greed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291* * * (n= 48) and 0.6431* * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg, 0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.

Scenario analysis on abating industrial process greenhouse gas emissions from adipic acid production in China

Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate greenhouse gas control roadmaps.The forecasting method of this paper is consistent with the published national inventory in terms of caliber.Based on the N_2 O abatement technical parameters of adipic acid and the production trend,this paper combines the scenario analysis and provides a measurement of comprehensive N_2 O abatement effect of the entire industry in China.Four future scenarios are assumed.The baseline scenario(BAUS) is a frozen scenario.Three emission abatement scenarios(ANAS,SNAS,and ENAS) are assumed under different strength of abatement driving parameters.The results show that China's adipic acid production process can achieve increasingly significant N_2 O emission abatement effects.Compared to the baseline scenario,by 2030,the N_2 O emission abatements of the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 207-399 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 32.5%-62.6%.By 2050,the N_2 O emission abatements for the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 387-540 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 71.4%-99.6%.

Scenario analysis of water pollution control in the typical peri-urban river using a coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model

The water quality pollution and ecological deterioration in peri-urban rivers are usually serious under rapid urbanization and economic growth.In the study,a typical peri-urban river,Nansha River,was selected as a case study to discuss the scheme of peri-urban river rehabilitation.Located in the north part of the Beijing central region,the Nansha River watershed has been designated as an ecologically friendly garden-style area with high-tech industry parks and upscale residential zones.However,the Nansha River is currently seriously contaminated by urban and rural pollutants from both nonpoint sources(NPS)and point sources(PS).In this study,the pollutant loads from point sources and nonpoint sources in the Nansha River watershed were first assessed.A coupled model,derived from the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code and Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program,was developed to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality in the Nansha River.According to the characteristics of the typical peri-urban river,three different PS and NPS control scenarios were designed and examined by modeling analyses.Based on the results of the scenario analysis,a river rehabilitation scheme was recommended for implementation.

Vanadium metabolism investigation using substance flow and scenario analysis

Vanadium is a vital strategic resource, and vanadium metabolism is an important part of the national socio-economic system of China. This study conducts accounting and scenario analysis on the life cycle of vanadium metabolism in China. Based on the character- istics of vanadium life cycle and substance flow analysis （SFA） framework, we present a quantitative evaluation of a static anthropogenic vanadium life cycle for the year 2010. Results show that anthropogenic vanadium consumption, stocks, and new domestic scrap are at 98.2, 21.2, and 4.1 kt, respectively; new scrap is usually discarded. The overall utilization ratio of vanadium is 32.2%. A large amount of vanadium is stockpiled into tailings, debris, slags, and other spent solids. A scenario analysis was conducted to analyze the future developmental trend of vanadium metabolism in China based on the SFA frame- work and the qualitative analysis of technology advance- ment and socio-economic development. The baseline year was set as 2010. Several indicators were proposed to simulate different scenarios from 2010 to 2030. The scenario analysis indicates that the next 20 years is a critical period for the vanadium industry in China. This paper discusses relevant policies that contribute to the improvement of sustainable vanadium utilization in China.

A scenario-based clean diesel production strategy for China National Petroleum Corporation

Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels, China National Petroleum Corporation （CNPC）, the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China, needs to upgrade its transportation fuels. Using the scenario-based analysis method, this paper analyzes how the output and emission related properties, including cetane number, and sulfur and aromatics contents of diesel produced by CNPC, will vary with changes in the configuration of diesel production units in the next 5-10 years. The results showed that, to upgrade its diesel, CNPC needs to adjust its diesel pool by decreasing the share of fluid catalytic cracking （FCC） diesel and increasing the shares of hydrocracking （HDC） and hydrotreating （HDT） diesel. Furthermore, to produce ultra-low-sulfur diesel, straight-run diesel as well as poor diesel blendstocks such as FCC diesel and coker diesel should be hydrotreated before being blended into finished diesel. Developing highly efficient HDC and HDT catalysts and corresponding processes is the key to CNPC economically producing more and cleaner diesel.

A scenario-based clean gasoline production strategy for China National Petroleum Corporation

Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels, China National Petroleum Corp. （CNPC）, the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China, needs to upgrade its transportation fuels. Using the scenario-based analysis method, this paper analyzes how the emission related properties, including antiknock index, and sulfur, olefin, benzene and aromatics contents of gasoline produced by CNPC, vary with the change in the configuration of gasoline production units in the future 5-15 years. The results showed that for CNPC to upgrade its gasoline, the share of fluid catalytic cracking （FCC） naphtha must be reduced, but just increasing reformate or alkylate and isomerate will result in excessive increase in benzene and aromatics contents or a great loss of gasoline octane number. Therefore, CNPC should suitably control the capacity of its FCC units and increase the capacity of reformer, alkylation and isomerization units. Most importantly, CNPC should dramatically expand the capacity of its hydrotreating or non-hydrotreating gasoline upgrading units to decrease the olefin and sulfur contents in FCC gasoline that takes a dominant share of about 80% in the gasoline pool of China.

Technical Analysis of Energy Saving and Emission Reducing in China's Cement Industry Based on LEAP Model

[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the ability to save energy and reduce CO2 emission in China＇s cement industry. [Method] Based on long-term energy alternative planning system software （LEAP）, ＂LEAP of China＇s cement industry＂ model was established to simulate energy conservation and emission reduction in China＇s cement industry from 2010 to 2040 in different technologic situations. E ResultJ To save ener- gy and reduce CO2 emissions, new dry process kiln has priority over other technologies or measures, followed by equipment enlargement, mechani- cal shaft kiln, power generation system based on waste heat, as well as high-efficiency and energy-saving grinding technology, and new prepara- tion technology. If all the advanced technologies and measures are adopted, energy consumption and C02 emissions can be reduced by about 40.76% and 42.97% respectively. [ Condusion] LEAP of model is suitable for analyzing energy saving and emission reducing in China＇s cement industry and other industrial fields.

An integrated analysis approach to LUCC at regional scale:A case study in the Ganzhou District of Zhangye City,China

Land use/cover change （LUCC） models are helpful tools for analyzing driving forces and processes of land use changes, assessing ecological impacts of land use change and decision-making for land use planning. However, no single model is able to capture all the essential key processes to explore land use change at different spatial-temporal scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and macro-ecological impacts. Taken Ganzhou District as a case study, this paper describes an integrated analysis （IA） ap- proach by combining with system dynamics （SD） model, the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） model and landscape indices method to analyze land use dynamics at different spatial-temporal scales. The SD model was used to calculate and predict demands for different land use types at the macro-scale as a whole during 2000-2035. The LUCC process was simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply by using the CLUE-S model, and Kappa values of the map simulation are 0.86 and 0.81 in 2000 and 2005, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the macro-ecological effect of LUCC and optimized sce- nario managements of land use by using landscape indices method. The IA approach could be used for better understanding the complexity of land use change and provide scientific support for land use planning and management, and the simulation results also could be used as a source data for scenario analysis of different hydrological and ecological processes based on different un- derlying surface of LUCC.

Policy Options for Sustainable Development in Urban Transport:Analysis of Energy Consumption and Environmental Benefit Influenced by Different Transport Policies in Beijing

Transportation is a sector with high energy consumption as well as high emissions.Generally speaking,economic growth will inevitably lead to the increase of travel demand and vehicle population,which in turn results into the augmentation of environmental and social costs.For metropolis like Beijing under rapid development,there exist various possibilities and options for transport development policy instruments.But there is no guarantee that they will be suitable for Beijing,although they are effective in their local places.This article assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic conditions in Beijing in the future.After literature reviews on the practices of foreign policy and we established several feasible scenarios.Then,we used the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LREAP) analyzed their corresponding results of reduced energy consumption and emissions.Finally,by simulating and computing the realistic Beijing transportation scenarios,this paper scientifically assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic condition in Beijing in the coming decade.

Current status and future trends for material flow analysis applications at CSC

Material Flow Analysis(MFA) is a crucial instrument for sustainable development and creating industrial ecology system.MFA studies could balance and analyze the sources,flows,and consumes of specific materials or substances.The results of MFA studies could support the strategies or decisions making for energy, resource,and waste management,especially achieving sustainable resource management.At CSC,the dynamic simulating software,STELLA,is used to develop a MFA model for scenario analysis.CSC also uses the freeware STAN 2.0 as a tool for visualizing and simulating material flows and stocks.Case studies of greenhouse gases MFA for integrated steel works are conducted.The results showed that the carbon content of hot-metal is an important hidden flow for balance analysis,and the different GHG emission scenarios and mitigation action scenarios are assessed.In addition,the Iron-making GHG I/O MFA Model,based on worldsteel Global Steel Sector Approach(GSSA),is developed for calculating the CO_2 and energy intensity of coke making,sintering,and BF processes.This MFA model was used to analyze the CO_2 reduction potential for iron-making process.The cases conducted for MFA applications at CSC were such as greenhouse gas,zinc,etc.In the future,CSC is going to develop a 'CSC Environment Management and Decision Supporting System' which combine MFA,LCA(life cycle assessment),and environment risk assessment.This supporting system expects to promoting energy efficiency and best resource use,supporting environment policymaking,creating environmental information value,etc.

Land use scenarios simulation in ecological conservation area:A case study of Miyun district,Beijing

Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve future land use efficiency and environmental protection.In this paper,we took the Miyun district as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for land use simulation,based on land use data in 2001 and 2010.Eight key driving factors were selected,including elevation,slope,distance,population density and others.Based on the adjusted model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 in Miyun district were simulated respectively for rapid growth scenario,land use planning scenario and ecological protection scenario and then identify the area needed extraordinary supervision in land planning implementation.The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached 85%considerably,implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in Miyun district.Construction land increases and cultivated land decreases dramatically by 2020 in rapid growth and land use planning scenarios.The potential land use change tends to occur near Miyun reservoir,while the sensitive area for ecological protection and land planning implementation are distributed around urban area,Fengjiayu and Jugezhuang town.Some opencast mine areas,which would be converted to forest land in planning,will be hard to execute in the actual situation,so these areas should be paid more attention in land management.The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the future ecological protection and land use planning implementation in Miyun district,which could also be useful for other similar cities.

Development potential of the Northeast Passage based on a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium model

We developed a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(MNL SUE)model incorporating time value of cargo to investigate future proportions of cargo flow through the Northeast Passage(NEP)and the Suez Canal Route between representative ports.We studied navigation during the ice-free and ice-covered seasons using sea ice projections for 2070 based on 1991–2021 NEP ice data.Sailing distance and time between selected ports are lower via the NEP than the Suez Canal Route.Under the scenario of year-round operation of the NEP,the proportion of cargo flow through the NEP is estimated to be 68.5%,which represents considerable commercial potential.Proportions are higher for the ice-free season and for ports at high latitudes.We also assessed flow under different scenarios.Under the scenario of fuel price increase,proportion of flow through the NEP in the ice-covered season is expected to increase.If time value is ignored,flow through the NEP is expected to increase all year round.If shippers become more cost-conscious,flow through the NEP is also expected to increase.

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Different Structural Systems on Carbon Emissions of Prefabricated Buildings Based on SimaPro

In the context of global emission reduction, the low-carbon sustainable development of the construction industry has become an important research content. With the vigorous development of new industrial technologies, the application of prefabrication technology to buildings had become a mainstream. However, the research on the role of prefabricated technology in reducing building carbon emissions was not yet comprehensive, and the research on the relationship between prefabricated structure types and carbon emissions in the construction stage was not yet thorough. Guided by life cycle assessment (LCA), this paper used the scenario analysis method to set different working conditions for five different structural systems, and used SimaPro software to evaluate the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings in order to clarify the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings under different structural systems, and explore their impact mechanisms in depth. Finally, take the existing buildings in China as an empirical study, the results showed that: 1) The carbon emissions produced by the four common prefabricated structural systems were almost the same. Different structures had different requirements for the combination of components. The carbon emissions of individual buildings would be superimposed according to the carbon emission characteristics of various individual components to form the final total carbon emissions. 2) When the building structure system requires more combinations of components, the greater the amount of transportation invested in the transportation process, the more carbon emissions would be caused. In the calculation of all individual building construction stages, the carbon emissions generated by tower cranes almost exceed the sum of the carbon emissions of all mobile machinery. 3) Prefabricated shear wall structures and prefabricated frame-shear wall structures require a large amount of hoisting of prefabricated shear walls, so the carbon emissions of their mechanical equipment were also the highest.

Research on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Technological Pathways in the Chinese Papermaking Industry

Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China.Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China,and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared.The study used an accounting method based on the industry’s overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios.The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality.The results indicated that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons.(2)Under low-demand,high-demand,and baseline scenarios,the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.(3)In 2060,under the three scenarios,CO_(2)emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31%compared to the baseline year.However,there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons,requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source,increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality.

上海市全科医生供需整合预测模型构建及响应策略模拟

目的构建上海全科医生供需整合的预测模型,进行政策的情景模拟,为解决上海全科医生供需失衡问题提供建议与策略。方法基于供给和需求的预测结果,计算上海全科医生的供需缺口,对增加供给和合理引导需求后全科医生的供需情况进行情景分析。结果根据供需整合预测结果,扩大全科规范化培训招生规模后,当需求参数保持不变时,2030年上海全科医生供需差值将达到578人,每万常住人口的全科医生供需差值将达到0.2人;扩大全科规范化培训招生规模后,当需求参数基于既往趋势变化时,2030年上海全科医生供需差值将达到2929人,每万常住人口的全科医生供需差值为1.1人。上海全科医生供需面临的风险主要为供不应求,通过增加全科医生的培养数量与扩大区域外招聘规模,可以缓解部分供需缺口;高龄化、首诊在社区等人口与政策的变化会增加全科医生的需求,从而扩大供需缺口。结论基于供需整合视角进行全科医生数量预测能够为更加系统、前瞻性地解决供需失衡问题提供综合、有力的证据支持。供需整合的系统动力学模型可以为模拟响应策略提供技术支持,其预测结果可以为上海全科医生的规划提供决策参考。

Effect of species composition on ecosystem services in European boreal forest

Forest management in several boreal countries is strongly focused on conifers because they are more productive,the technical quality of their stems is better,and their wood fibers are longer as compared to broadleaves.Favoring conifers in forest management leads to simple forest structures with low resilience and diversity.Such forests are risky in the face of climate change and fluctuating timber prices.Climate change increases the vitality of many forest pests and pathogens such as Heterobasidion spp.and Ips typographus L.which attack mainly spruce.Wind damages are also increasing because of a shorter period of frozen soil to provide a firm anchorage against storms.Wind-thrown trees serve as starting points for bark beetle outbreaks.Increasing the proportion of broadleaved species might alleviate some of these problems.This study predicts the long-term(150 years) consequences of current conifer-oriented forest management in two forest areas,and compared this management with silvicultural strategies that promote mixed forests and broadleaved species.The results show that,in the absence of damages,conifer-oriented forestry would lead to 5–10% higher timber yields and carbon sequestration.The somewhat lower carbon sequestration of broadleaved forests was counteracted by their higher albedo(reflectance).Mixed and broadleafforests were better providers of recreational amenities.Species diversity was much higher in mixed stand and broadleaf-oriented silviculture at stand and forest levels.The analysis indicates that conifer-oriented forest management produces rather small and uncertain economic benefits at a high cost in resilience and diversity.

A review of China's energy consumption structure and outlook based on a long-range energy alternatives modeling tool

China＇s energy consumption experienced rapid growth over the past three decades, raising great concerns for the future adjustment of China＇s energy consumption structure. This paper first presents the historical evidence on China＇s energy consumption by the fuel types and sectors. Then, by establishing a bottom-up accounting framework and using long-range energy alternatives plan- ning energy modeling tool, the future of China＇s energy consumption structure under three scenarios is forecast. According to the estimates, China＇s total energy con- sumption will increase from 3014 million tonnes oil equivalent （Mtoe） in 2015 to 4470 Mtoe in 2040 under the current policies scenario, 4040 Mtoe in 2040 under the moderate policies scenario and 3320 Mtoe in 2040 under the strong policies scenario, respectively, lower than those of the IEA＇s estimations. In addition, the clean fuels （gas, nuclear and renewables） could be an effective alternative to the conventional fossil fuels （coal and oil） and offer much more potential. Furthermore, the industry sector has much strong reduction potentials than the other sectors. Finally, this paper suggests that the Chinese government should incorporate consideration of adjustment of the energy consumption structure into existing energy policies and measures in the future.

An economic evaluation method of coalbed methane resources during the target selection phase of exploration

Because forecasting a development program during the target selection phase of exploration for coalbed methane （CBM） is impossible, the conventional method that relies on a conceptual （or detailed） development pro- gram cannot be used during the economic evaluation of CBM resources. Hence, this study focuses on establishing an economic evaluation model based on the characteristics of the target selection phase. The discounted cashflow method is applied to the construction of the model with the assumption that there is a uniform distribution of produc- tion wells. The computational error generated by the assumption is corrected by introducing a correction factor based on the production profile of single CBM wells. The case study demonstrates that the blocks lacking economic value can be screened out, and the most advantageous targets can be found by computing the resource values in the best- and worst-case scenarios. This technique can help to reduce wasted investments and improve the quality of decision-making in selecting targets for exploration.

Application of the InVEST model for assessing water yield and its response to precipitation and land use in the Weihe River Basin, China

With realizing the importance of ecosystem services to society, the efforts to evaluate the ecosystem services have increased. As the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Weihe River has been endowed with many ecological service functions. Among which, water yield can be a measure of local availability of water and an index for evaluating the conservation function of the region. This study aimed to explore the temporal and spatial variation of water yield and its influencing factors in the Weihe River Basin(WRB), and provide basis for formulating reasonable water resources utilization schemes. Based on the InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs) model, this study simulated the water yield in the WRB from 1985 to 2019, and discussed the impacts of climatic factors and land use change on water yield by spatial autocorrelation analysis and scenario analysis methods. The results showed that there was a slight increasing trend in water yield in the WRB over the study period with the increasing rate of 4.84 mm/10a and an average depth of 83.14 mm. The main water-producing areas were concentrated along the mainstream of the Weihe River and in the southern basin. Changes in water yield were comprehensively affected by climate and underlying surface factors. Precipitation was the main factor affecting water yield, which was consistent with water yield in time. And there existed significant spatial agglomeration between water yield and precipitation. Land use had little impact on the amount of water yield, but had an impact on its spatial distribution. Water yield was higher in areas with wide distribution of construction land and grassland. Water yield of different land use types were different. Unused land showed the largest water yield capacity, whereas grassland and farmland contributed most to the total water yield. The increasing water yield in the basin indicates an enhanced water supply service function of the ecosystem. These results are of great significance to the water resources management of the WRB.