Grassland ecosystems support well-being with food,shelter,income,and culture of herdsmen.While the associa-tion between ecosystem services and human well-being has been widely studied,such association is understudied ...Grassland ecosystems support well-being with food,shelter,income,and culture of herdsmen.While the associa-tion between ecosystem services and human well-being has been widely studied,such association is understudied in grassland ecosystems.This study aims to fill this gap through a case study of Xilinhot City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China.We examined the association between grassland provisioning services and herds-men’s well-being between 1985 and 2015 through participatory observations,interviews,surveys,and Bayesian belief network modeling.Considering the uncertainties of weather and sheep prices,we developed four scenarios to examine the future well-being of herdsmen.Our results show that the most important factor for herdsmen’s well-being was income,which is highly sensitive to the market price of sheep and precipitation.Considering the uncertainties of sheep prices and precipitation,scenario analysis revealed a divergence between income and well-being.While herdsmen’s income is most likely to increase with low precipitation and increased sheep prices,their well-being is most likely to improve with abundant precipitation and increased sheep prices.Based on our find-ings,we argue that developing alternative income sources(e.g.,tourism),reducing dependence on government subsidies through commercial insurance,and branding lamb with grassland ecosystem to alleviate the impact of price fluctuations would help improve herdsmen’s well-being in all scenarios.展开更多
Assembly line balancing involves assigning a series of task elements to uniform sequential stations with certain restrictions. Decision makers often discover that a task assignment which is optimal with respect to a d...Assembly line balancing involves assigning a series of task elements to uniform sequential stations with certain restrictions. Decision makers often discover that a task assignment which is optimal with respect to a deterministic or stochastic/fuzzy model yields quite poor performance in reality. In real environments, assembly line balancing robustness is a more appropriate decision selection guide. A robust model based on the α worst case scenario is developed to compensate for the drawbacks of traditional robust criteria. A robust genetic algorithm is used to solve the problem. Comprehensive computational experiments to study the effect of the solution procedure show that the model generates more flexible robust solutions. Careful tuning the value of α allows the decision maker to balance robustness and conservativeness of as- sembly line task element assignments.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to examine present librarian skills in academic libraries and to propose possible directions of future libraries on skill requirements. This study provides a valuable methodology to unders...The purpose of this paper is to examine present librarian skills in academic libraries and to propose possible directions of future libraries on skill requirements. This study provides a valuable methodology to understand the current demands of employers for library staff. It also begins to highlight trends in how the skill set and outlook for future employees are currently being viewed. There has been a combination of these understandings with the scenario planning technique to draw threads anticipating skill requirements in three to five years. These approaches create a powerful analysis. An examination of recent library position advertisements and job descriptions in five countries and regions showed broad communication and technology skills required in academic libraries. The key terms of skills were ranked according to the frequencies used in the advertisements and descriptions. Original research based on data from the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Hong Kong, SAR, China. The results are harmonized with predicted future trends from scenario planning exercises.展开更多
Low impact development type of best management practices （LID-BMPs） aims to mitigate urban stormwater runoffand lessen pollutant loads in an economical and eco-friendly way and has become a global concern in modem u...Low impact development type of best management practices （LID-BMPs） aims to mitigate urban stormwater runoffand lessen pollutant loads in an economical and eco-friendly way and has become a global concern in modem urban stormwater management. A new methodology based on stormwater management model （SWMM） for block-scale LID-BMPs planning was developed. This method integrated LID-BMP chain layout optimization in site-scale parcels with scenario analysis in the entire block-scale urban area. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm （NSGA-II） was successfully coupled to SWMM through Python to complete the site-scale optimization process. Different LID scenarios of the research area were designed on the basis of the optimized LID-BMP chain layout. A multi-index evaluation that considered runoff quantity indices, pollutant loads, and construction costs simultaneously helped select the cost-effective scenario as the final planning scheme. A case study in Tianjin, China, was conducted to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Results showed that more than 75% control rate of total runoff volume, 22%-46% peak flow reduction efficiency, and more than 32% pollutant removal rate were achieved. The robustness analysis indicated that the selected final planning scheme was considerably robust with varied weight values.展开更多
In the wake of the September 11,2001 terrorist attacks, there is a growing sense of insecurity felt by many citizens around the world. Sustainable security, with roots in the sustainable development and human security...In the wake of the September 11,2001 terrorist attacks, there is a growing sense of insecurity felt by many citizens around the world. Sustainable security, with roots in the sustainable development and human security literature, seeks positive transformations for the co-evolving and mutually dependent human-environmental condition by integrating （and subsuming） national, human, environmental, and energy security concems and capitalizing on opportunities provided by human creativity, diplomatic openings, modernization and environmental change. The field of Sustainable Security Systems Engineering is proposed for protecting, restoring, designing, and implementing a set of integrated natural and man-made processes that equitably and responsibly meet the biophysical needs of human communities, while maintaining long-term security, respecting financial constraints, meeting ecological limits, and improving institutional arrangements for transparent and effective governance. Scenario planning is shown to help promote sustainable security by identifying the preconditions of instability and helping to proactively address them in an increasingly complex and uncertain world. The six papers published in this featured collection cross policy domains, geographic, political, and sectoral boundaries and were discussed at forums sponsored by the Systems Engineering and Global Policy group. Collectively, they demonstrate the quality, breadth and depth of systems engineering methodologies that are used to promote sustainable security.展开更多
基金the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2014CB954302)。
文摘Grassland ecosystems support well-being with food,shelter,income,and culture of herdsmen.While the associa-tion between ecosystem services and human well-being has been widely studied,such association is understudied in grassland ecosystems.This study aims to fill this gap through a case study of Xilinhot City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China.We examined the association between grassland provisioning services and herds-men’s well-being between 1985 and 2015 through participatory observations,interviews,surveys,and Bayesian belief network modeling.Considering the uncertainties of weather and sheep prices,we developed four scenarios to examine the future well-being of herdsmen.Our results show that the most important factor for herdsmen’s well-being was income,which is highly sensitive to the market price of sheep and precipitation.Considering the uncertainties of sheep prices and precipitation,scenario analysis revealed a divergence between income and well-being.While herdsmen’s income is most likely to increase with low precipitation and increased sheep prices,their well-being is most likely to improve with abundant precipitation and increased sheep prices.Based on our find-ings,we argue that developing alternative income sources(e.g.,tourism),reducing dependence on government subsidies through commercial insurance,and branding lamb with grassland ecosystem to alleviate the impact of price fluctuations would help improve herdsmen’s well-being in all scenarios.
基金Supported by the National High-Tech Research Development (863) Program of China (No.2006AA04Z160)
文摘Assembly line balancing involves assigning a series of task elements to uniform sequential stations with certain restrictions. Decision makers often discover that a task assignment which is optimal with respect to a deterministic or stochastic/fuzzy model yields quite poor performance in reality. In real environments, assembly line balancing robustness is a more appropriate decision selection guide. A robust model based on the α worst case scenario is developed to compensate for the drawbacks of traditional robust criteria. A robust genetic algorithm is used to solve the problem. Comprehensive computational experiments to study the effect of the solution procedure show that the model generates more flexible robust solutions. Careful tuning the value of α allows the decision maker to balance robustness and conservativeness of as- sembly line task element assignments.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to examine present librarian skills in academic libraries and to propose possible directions of future libraries on skill requirements. This study provides a valuable methodology to understand the current demands of employers for library staff. It also begins to highlight trends in how the skill set and outlook for future employees are currently being viewed. There has been a combination of these understandings with the scenario planning technique to draw threads anticipating skill requirements in three to five years. These approaches create a powerful analysis. An examination of recent library position advertisements and job descriptions in five countries and regions showed broad communication and technology skills required in academic libraries. The key terms of skills were ranked according to the frequencies used in the advertisements and descriptions. Original research based on data from the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Hong Kong, SAR, China. The results are harmonized with predicted future trends from scenario planning exercises.
文摘Low impact development type of best management practices （LID-BMPs） aims to mitigate urban stormwater runoffand lessen pollutant loads in an economical and eco-friendly way and has become a global concern in modem urban stormwater management. A new methodology based on stormwater management model （SWMM） for block-scale LID-BMPs planning was developed. This method integrated LID-BMP chain layout optimization in site-scale parcels with scenario analysis in the entire block-scale urban area. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm （NSGA-II） was successfully coupled to SWMM through Python to complete the site-scale optimization process. Different LID scenarios of the research area were designed on the basis of the optimized LID-BMP chain layout. A multi-index evaluation that considered runoff quantity indices, pollutant loads, and construction costs simultaneously helped select the cost-effective scenario as the final planning scheme. A case study in Tianjin, China, was conducted to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Results showed that more than 75% control rate of total runoff volume, 22%-46% peak flow reduction efficiency, and more than 32% pollutant removal rate were achieved. The robustness analysis indicated that the selected final planning scheme was considerably robust with varied weight values.
文摘In the wake of the September 11,2001 terrorist attacks, there is a growing sense of insecurity felt by many citizens around the world. Sustainable security, with roots in the sustainable development and human security literature, seeks positive transformations for the co-evolving and mutually dependent human-environmental condition by integrating （and subsuming） national, human, environmental, and energy security concems and capitalizing on opportunities provided by human creativity, diplomatic openings, modernization and environmental change. The field of Sustainable Security Systems Engineering is proposed for protecting, restoring, designing, and implementing a set of integrated natural and man-made processes that equitably and responsibly meet the biophysical needs of human communities, while maintaining long-term security, respecting financial constraints, meeting ecological limits, and improving institutional arrangements for transparent and effective governance. Scenario planning is shown to help promote sustainable security by identifying the preconditions of instability and helping to proactively address them in an increasingly complex and uncertain world. The six papers published in this featured collection cross policy domains, geographic, political, and sectoral boundaries and were discussed at forums sponsored by the Systems Engineering and Global Policy group. Collectively, they demonstrate the quality, breadth and depth of systems engineering methodologies that are used to promote sustainable security.
