Analysis on Ecological Risk in Northwest China

Based on scenario analysis method, assuming different economic develop- ment policies, and AHP method, the ecological indicators and risk prediction models were established. The trends of ecological risk in the northwest region were ana- lyzed. The results showed that： in the northwest, the potential ecological risks of the population economy, water resources, and land resources and natural disasters still existed. However, the environment and respond to ecological risks were decreasing. Therefore, a regional balanced development measures had been taken to curb the western trend of ecological deterioration. So that socio-economic development, re- sources, environment, and economy were expected to a virtuous cycle, and the eco- logical risks would be reduced. This study provides the basis for land and water use planning and environmental protection of government decision-making and management.

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND SCENARIOS OF URBANIZATION IN ARID AREA——A Case Study in Wuwei City of Gansu Province

Based on data of questionnaire and field survey and two developing models of Business As Usual (BAU) and the Intensive Urbanization (IU), this article, taking Wuwei City, a medium size city and typical oasis arid area in Gansu Province with very vulnerable and sensitive natural environment but long history of oasis economy, as an example, evaluated the sustainability of its environment and analyzed the scenarios of Wuwei’s household energy consumption, waste discharge in transportation industry, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, by the integration of the systematical dynamics model Stella and Polestar language to simulate the future development of the research area. The results showed that, first, the developing model of IU was propitious to Wuwei City named for oasis economy and vulnerable natural environment. The strategy of "Intensive Urbanization" can change the structure of energy utilization, and improve the efficiency of energy utilization. Second, the proportion of domestic energy consumption will decrease with industrialization and economic development, while that of tertiary industry, secondary industry and transportation will gradually grow up according to strategy of "Intensive Urbanization". Third, the Wuwei City is facing a severe eco-environmental crisis under the conventional patterns of development and a better future under a sustainable urbanization scenario, in the next 10 to 20 years. The different developing trends were clarified and the relative countermeasures were put forward for the policy makers according to the driving forces.

Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis

Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.

Validation and Scenario Analysis of a Soil Organic Carbon Model

A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general a-greed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291* * * (n= 48) and 0.6431* * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg, 0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.

Technical Analysis of Energy Saving and Emission Reducing in China's Cement Industry Based on LEAP Model

[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the ability to save energy and reduce CO2 emission in China＇s cement industry. [Method] Based on long-term energy alternative planning system software （LEAP）, ＂LEAP of China＇s cement industry＂ model was established to simulate energy conservation and emission reduction in China＇s cement industry from 2010 to 2040 in different technologic situations. E ResultJ To save ener- gy and reduce CO2 emissions, new dry process kiln has priority over other technologies or measures, followed by equipment enlargement, mechani- cal shaft kiln, power generation system based on waste heat, as well as high-efficiency and energy-saving grinding technology, and new prepara- tion technology. If all the advanced technologies and measures are adopted, energy consumption and C02 emissions can be reduced by about 40.76% and 42.97% respectively. [ Condusion] LEAP of model is suitable for analyzing energy saving and emission reducing in China＇s cement industry and other industrial fields.

Scenario analysis on abating industrial process greenhouse gas emissions from adipic acid production in China

Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate greenhouse gas control roadmaps.The forecasting method of this paper is consistent with the published national inventory in terms of caliber.Based on the N_2 O abatement technical parameters of adipic acid and the production trend,this paper combines the scenario analysis and provides a measurement of comprehensive N_2 O abatement effect of the entire industry in China.Four future scenarios are assumed.The baseline scenario(BAUS) is a frozen scenario.Three emission abatement scenarios(ANAS,SNAS,and ENAS) are assumed under different strength of abatement driving parameters.The results show that China's adipic acid production process can achieve increasingly significant N_2 O emission abatement effects.Compared to the baseline scenario,by 2030,the N_2 O emission abatements of the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 207-399 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 32.5%-62.6%.By 2050,the N_2 O emission abatements for the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 387-540 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 71.4%-99.6%.

An integrated analysis approach to LUCC at regional scale:A case study in the Ganzhou District of Zhangye City,China

Land use/cover change （LUCC） models are helpful tools for analyzing driving forces and processes of land use changes, assessing ecological impacts of land use change and decision-making for land use planning. However, no single model is able to capture all the essential key processes to explore land use change at different spatial-temporal scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and macro-ecological impacts. Taken Ganzhou District as a case study, this paper describes an integrated analysis （IA） ap- proach by combining with system dynamics （SD） model, the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） model and landscape indices method to analyze land use dynamics at different spatial-temporal scales. The SD model was used to calculate and predict demands for different land use types at the macro-scale as a whole during 2000-2035. The LUCC process was simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply by using the CLUE-S model, and Kappa values of the map simulation are 0.86 and 0.81 in 2000 and 2005, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the macro-ecological effect of LUCC and optimized sce- nario managements of land use by using landscape indices method. The IA approach could be used for better understanding the complexity of land use change and provide scientific support for land use planning and management, and the simulation results also could be used as a source data for scenario analysis of different hydrological and ecological processes based on different un- derlying surface of LUCC.

The cause of human fatigue and scenario analysisin the process of marine transportation

The framework of fatigue factors is constructed to reduce the number of maritime accidents caused by human fatigue.Based on the study of maritime human fatigue,by screening and classifying it,there are 15 fatigue factors,which can be classified into 4 types:sleep,rest and rhythm;work factors;personal conditions;environmental factors.These factors are regarded as the variables for constructing scenarios.The importance,uncertainty,influence and dependence of variables and variable pairs were assessed by using morphological analysis,quantitative scales and correlation matrices.Ship movement and workload are selected as the two key variables,which are regarded as the axes of generating scenarios.One of the scenarios is selected as the typical scenario to illustrate the relationship between the causes of fatigue.Then,the analysis framework is constructed according to the fatigue factors relationship,and several potential solutions are proposed,which include the development of foresighted and flexible work plans,and the application of wearable facilities to improve monitoring and assessment systems.The proposed framework lays a theoretical foundation for studying maritime human fatigue,and scenario analysis can provide an effective strategy for reducing crews'fatigue.

3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario(floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity(100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

Policy Options for Sustainable Development in Urban Transport:Analysis of Energy Consumption and Environmental Benefit Influenced by Different Transport Policies in Beijing

Transportation is a sector with high energy consumption as well as high emissions.Generally speaking,economic growth will inevitably lead to the increase of travel demand and vehicle population,which in turn results into the augmentation of environmental and social costs.For metropolis like Beijing under rapid development,there exist various possibilities and options for transport development policy instruments.But there is no guarantee that they will be suitable for Beijing,although they are effective in their local places.This article assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic conditions in Beijing in the future.After literature reviews on the practices of foreign policy and we established several feasible scenarios.Then,we used the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LREAP) analyzed their corresponding results of reduced energy consumption and emissions.Finally,by simulating and computing the realistic Beijing transportation scenarios,this paper scientifically assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic condition in Beijing in the coming decade.

Current status and future trends for material flow analysis applications at CSC

Material Flow Analysis(MFA) is a crucial instrument for sustainable development and creating industrial ecology system.MFA studies could balance and analyze the sources,flows,and consumes of specific materials or substances.The results of MFA studies could support the strategies or decisions making for energy, resource,and waste management,especially achieving sustainable resource management.At CSC,the dynamic simulating software,STELLA,is used to develop a MFA model for scenario analysis.CSC also uses the freeware STAN 2.0 as a tool for visualizing and simulating material flows and stocks.Case studies of greenhouse gases MFA for integrated steel works are conducted.The results showed that the carbon content of hot-metal is an important hidden flow for balance analysis,and the different GHG emission scenarios and mitigation action scenarios are assessed.In addition,the Iron-making GHG I/O MFA Model,based on worldsteel Global Steel Sector Approach(GSSA),is developed for calculating the CO_2 and energy intensity of coke making,sintering,and BF processes.This MFA model was used to analyze the CO_2 reduction potential for iron-making process.The cases conducted for MFA applications at CSC were such as greenhouse gas,zinc,etc.In the future,CSC is going to develop a 'CSC Environment Management and Decision Supporting System' which combine MFA,LCA(life cycle assessment),and environment risk assessment.This supporting system expects to promoting energy efficiency and best resource use,supporting environment policymaking,creating environmental information value,etc.

Land use scenarios simulation in ecological conservation area:A case study of Miyun district,Beijing

Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve future land use efficiency and environmental protection.In this paper,we took the Miyun district as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for land use simulation,based on land use data in 2001 and 2010.Eight key driving factors were selected,including elevation,slope,distance,population density and others.Based on the adjusted model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 in Miyun district were simulated respectively for rapid growth scenario,land use planning scenario and ecological protection scenario and then identify the area needed extraordinary supervision in land planning implementation.The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached 85%considerably,implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in Miyun district.Construction land increases and cultivated land decreases dramatically by 2020 in rapid growth and land use planning scenarios.The potential land use change tends to occur near Miyun reservoir,while the sensitive area for ecological protection and land planning implementation are distributed around urban area,Fengjiayu and Jugezhuang town.Some opencast mine areas,which would be converted to forest land in planning,will be hard to execute in the actual situation,so these areas should be paid more attention in land management.The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the future ecological protection and land use planning implementation in Miyun district,which could also be useful for other similar cities.

Scenario analysis of low carbon development in Tianjin, China

Low-carbon economic development has become a.fundamental approach to coordinating economic development and carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financial center of North China. Tianjin＇s energy demand and CO2 emissions are mushrooming, with per capita CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion exceeding 20 t in 2020, which much exceeds current level of USA. In the background of global responding to climate change, China will likely be requested to commit peaking its GHG emissions during 2020-2030, which will inevitable reduce the room of development in Tianjin enormously. Tianjin should make deployment ahead, realizing win-win of addressing climate change and sustainable development, with low-carbon economic development as important strategic mission. First of all, Tianjin should devote more efforts to reducing energy intensity and realizing relative emission reduction. Scenario analysis shows that Tianjin＇s future CO2 emissions will continue to increase rapidly, but they can be significantly reduced by taking measures. Second, Tianjin should get ready for achieving absolute reduction of CO2 emissions as soon as possible, preparing system, technology and talent in advance, making great efforts to establish institutional meehanisms conducive to low-carbon development from now on. starting from energy conservation and emission reduction, actively carrying out low-carbon technology research and development, vigorously developing the tertiary industry with low emissions, developing new and renewable energy resources, actively promote low-carbon consumption.

Development potential of the Northeast Passage based on a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium model

We developed a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(MNL SUE)model incorporating time value of cargo to investigate future proportions of cargo flow through the Northeast Passage(NEP)and the Suez Canal Route between representative ports.We studied navigation during the ice-free and ice-covered seasons using sea ice projections for 2070 based on 1991–2021 NEP ice data.Sailing distance and time between selected ports are lower via the NEP than the Suez Canal Route.Under the scenario of year-round operation of the NEP,the proportion of cargo flow through the NEP is estimated to be 68.5%,which represents considerable commercial potential.Proportions are higher for the ice-free season and for ports at high latitudes.We also assessed flow under different scenarios.Under the scenario of fuel price increase,proportion of flow through the NEP in the ice-covered season is expected to increase.If time value is ignored,flow through the NEP is expected to increase all year round.If shippers become more cost-conscious,flow through the NEP is also expected to increase.

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Different Structural Systems on Carbon Emissions of Prefabricated Buildings Based on SimaPro

In the context of global emission reduction, the low-carbon sustainable development of the construction industry has become an important research content. With the vigorous development of new industrial technologies, the application of prefabrication technology to buildings had become a mainstream. However, the research on the role of prefabricated technology in reducing building carbon emissions was not yet comprehensive, and the research on the relationship between prefabricated structure types and carbon emissions in the construction stage was not yet thorough. Guided by life cycle assessment (LCA), this paper used the scenario analysis method to set different working conditions for five different structural systems, and used SimaPro software to evaluate the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings in order to clarify the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings under different structural systems, and explore their impact mechanisms in depth. Finally, take the existing buildings in China as an empirical study, the results showed that: 1) The carbon emissions produced by the four common prefabricated structural systems were almost the same. Different structures had different requirements for the combination of components. The carbon emissions of individual buildings would be superimposed according to the carbon emission characteristics of various individual components to form the final total carbon emissions. 2) When the building structure system requires more combinations of components, the greater the amount of transportation invested in the transportation process, the more carbon emissions would be caused. In the calculation of all individual building construction stages, the carbon emissions generated by tower cranes almost exceed the sum of the carbon emissions of all mobile machinery. 3) Prefabricated shear wall structures and prefabricated frame-shear wall structures require a large amount of hoisting of prefabricated shear walls, so the carbon emissions of their mechanical equipment were also the highest.

Research on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Technological Pathways in the Chinese Papermaking Industry

Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China.Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China,and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared.The study used an accounting method based on the industry’s overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios.The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality.The results indicated that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons.(2)Under low-demand,high-demand,and baseline scenarios,the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.(3)In 2060,under the three scenarios,CO_(2)emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31%compared to the baseline year.However,there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons,requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source,increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality.

Water quality changing trends of the Miyun Reservoir

In order to simulate changes in the water quality of the Miyun Reservoir dueto continuous descent of surface water level, a 3-D ecological hydrodynamic model was developedthrough coupling the water quality analysis simulation program (WASP) with the environmental fluiddynamics code (EFDC). The model was then calibrated and verified. Four scenarios (S1, S21, S22 andS23) were simulated using the model. Results show that the water quality of the Miyun Reservoirunder conditions of low surface water level is apparently affected by different amounts of inflowand different total phosphorus (TP) loadings. The chlorophyll-a concentration might exceed 10 μg/Lin many areas of the Miyun Reservoir (This limitative value is seen as a critical value ofeutrophication) when large loadings of TP enter due to the amount of inflow increasing. Results ofscenario S23 indicate that control of TP loadings can decrease chlorophyll-a concentrationeffectively, and the water quality of the Miyun Reservoir will improve or retain its status quo.

上海市全科医生供需整合预测模型构建及响应策略模拟

目的构建上海全科医生供需整合的预测模型,进行政策的情景模拟,为解决上海全科医生供需失衡问题提供建议与策略。方法基于供给和需求的预测结果,计算上海全科医生的供需缺口,对增加供给和合理引导需求后全科医生的供需情况进行情景分析。结果根据供需整合预测结果,扩大全科规范化培训招生规模后,当需求参数保持不变时,2030年上海全科医生供需差值将达到578人,每万常住人口的全科医生供需差值将达到0.2人;扩大全科规范化培训招生规模后,当需求参数基于既往趋势变化时,2030年上海全科医生供需差值将达到2929人,每万常住人口的全科医生供需差值为1.1人。上海全科医生供需面临的风险主要为供不应求,通过增加全科医生的培养数量与扩大区域外招聘规模,可以缓解部分供需缺口;高龄化、首诊在社区等人口与政策的变化会增加全科医生的需求,从而扩大供需缺口。结论基于供需整合视角进行全科医生数量预测能够为更加系统、前瞻性地解决供需失衡问题提供综合、有力的证据支持。供需整合的系统动力学模型可以为模拟响应策略提供技术支持,其预测结果可以为上海全科医生的规划提供决策参考。

Effect of species composition on ecosystem services in European boreal forest

Forest management in several boreal countries is strongly focused on conifers because they are more productive,the technical quality of their stems is better,and their wood fibers are longer as compared to broadleaves.Favoring conifers in forest management leads to simple forest structures with low resilience and diversity.Such forests are risky in the face of climate change and fluctuating timber prices.Climate change increases the vitality of many forest pests and pathogens such as Heterobasidion spp.and Ips typographus L.which attack mainly spruce.Wind damages are also increasing because of a shorter period of frozen soil to provide a firm anchorage against storms.Wind-thrown trees serve as starting points for bark beetle outbreaks.Increasing the proportion of broadleaved species might alleviate some of these problems.This study predicts the long-term(150 years) consequences of current conifer-oriented forest management in two forest areas,and compared this management with silvicultural strategies that promote mixed forests and broadleaved species.The results show that,in the absence of damages,conifer-oriented forestry would lead to 5–10% higher timber yields and carbon sequestration.The somewhat lower carbon sequestration of broadleaved forests was counteracted by their higher albedo(reflectance).Mixed and broadleafforests were better providers of recreational amenities.Species diversity was much higher in mixed stand and broadleaf-oriented silviculture at stand and forest levels.The analysis indicates that conifer-oriented forest management produces rather small and uncertain economic benefits at a high cost in resilience and diversity.

A Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model for Analyzing Impacts of Land Cover Change on Flow Regimes

The Miyun Reservoir is the most important water source for Beijing Municipality, the capital of China with a population of more than 12 million. In recent decades, the inflow to the reservoir has shown a decreasing trend, which has seriously threatened water use in Beijing. In order to analyze the influents of land use and cover change (LUCC) upon inflow to Miyun Reservoir, terrain and land use information from remote sensing were utilized with a revised evapotranspiration estimation formula; a water loss model under conditions of human impacts was introduced; and a distributed monthly water balance model was established and applied to the Chaobai River Basin controlled by the Miyun Reservoir. The model simulation suggested that not only the impact of land cover change on evapotranspiration, but also the extra water loss caused by human activities, such as the water and soil conservation development projects should be considered. Although these development projects were of great benefit to human and ecological protection, they could reallocate water resources in time and space, and in a sense thereby influence the stream flow.