This research aims to improve the forecasting precision of electric quantity. It is discovered that the total electricity consumption considerably increased during the Spring Festival by the analysis of the electric q...This research aims to improve the forecasting precision of electric quantity. It is discovered that the total electricity consumption considerably increased during the Spring Festival by the analysis of the electric quantity time series from 2002 to 2007 in Shandong province. The festival factor is ascertained to be one of the important seasonal factors affecting the electric quantity fluctuations, and the multiplication model for forecasting is improved by introducing corresponding variables and parameters. The computational results indicate that the average relative error of the new model decreases from 4.31% to 1.93% and the maximum relative error from 14.05% to 6.52% compared with those of the model when the festival factor is not considered. It shows that introducing the festival factor into the multiplication model for electric quantity forecasting evidently improves the precision.展开更多
Sewage introduction into rivers has altered the physical and chemical properties of waters and also the microbial metabolism. This study aimed to evaluate the Escherichia coli and nutrient concentrations in the Maratu...Sewage introduction into rivers has altered the physical and chemical properties of waters and also the microbial metabolism. This study aimed to evaluate the Escherichia coli and nutrient concentrations in the Maratuãand Crumaú rivers (Santos Estuary, Brazil) during two periods with distinct magnitudes of freshwater runoff, verifying possible relation of abiotic changes with the microbial metabolism. Water sampling was performed in October/2012 (dry season) and January/2013 (rainy season) at two points in the Crumaú river (upstream and downstream zone) and one in the Maratuãriver (downstream zone). The water subsamples were obtained for E. coli and nutrient analyses while the velocity of water flow, water level, temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen were measured in situ. The E. coli concentrations were under the detection limit in the Maratuãdownstream during the dry season reaching a maximum value (1.47 × 10<sup>4</sup> CFU/100mL) in the Crumaú upstream during the rainy season. E. coli presented strong positive correlation with nutrients (ammoniacal-N and phosphate), evidencing the sewage source in the Crumaú upstream shown by this association. In both periods, the low oxygen saturation (100 μmol·L<sup>-1</sup>) indicated considerable predominance of heterotrophic metabolism in the Crumaú upstream. The low dissolved oxygen values in Crumaú River are corroborated to show a low self-depuration capacity in the rainy period due to maintenance of high nutrient and E. coli at two points in the Crumaú river (upstream and downstream zone) and one in the Maratuãriver (downstream zone). Besides, these results evidenced that the tendency of the metabolism changed from autotrophic to heterotrophic under high river flow events at this studied estuarine sector located at Santos estuarine complex.展开更多
基金The Forecasting Research Base of Chinese Academy of Sciences in Xi an Jiaotong University,the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.70773091)
文摘This research aims to improve the forecasting precision of electric quantity. It is discovered that the total electricity consumption considerably increased during the Spring Festival by the analysis of the electric quantity time series from 2002 to 2007 in Shandong province. The festival factor is ascertained to be one of the important seasonal factors affecting the electric quantity fluctuations, and the multiplication model for forecasting is improved by introducing corresponding variables and parameters. The computational results indicate that the average relative error of the new model decreases from 4.31% to 1.93% and the maximum relative error from 14.05% to 6.52% compared with those of the model when the festival factor is not considered. It shows that introducing the festival factor into the multiplication model for electric quantity forecasting evidently improves the precision.
文摘Sewage introduction into rivers has altered the physical and chemical properties of waters and also the microbial metabolism. This study aimed to evaluate the Escherichia coli and nutrient concentrations in the Maratuãand Crumaú rivers (Santos Estuary, Brazil) during two periods with distinct magnitudes of freshwater runoff, verifying possible relation of abiotic changes with the microbial metabolism. Water sampling was performed in October/2012 (dry season) and January/2013 (rainy season) at two points in the Crumaú river (upstream and downstream zone) and one in the Maratuãriver (downstream zone). The water subsamples were obtained for E. coli and nutrient analyses while the velocity of water flow, water level, temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen were measured in situ. The E. coli concentrations were under the detection limit in the Maratuãdownstream during the dry season reaching a maximum value (1.47 × 10<sup>4</sup> CFU/100mL) in the Crumaú upstream during the rainy season. E. coli presented strong positive correlation with nutrients (ammoniacal-N and phosphate), evidencing the sewage source in the Crumaú upstream shown by this association. In both periods, the low oxygen saturation (100 μmol·L<sup>-1</sup>) indicated considerable predominance of heterotrophic metabolism in the Crumaú upstream. The low dissolved oxygen values in Crumaú River are corroborated to show a low self-depuration capacity in the rainy period due to maintenance of high nutrient and E. coli at two points in the Crumaú river (upstream and downstream zone) and one in the Maratuãriver (downstream zone). Besides, these results evidenced that the tendency of the metabolism changed from autotrophic to heterotrophic under high river flow events at this studied estuarine sector located at Santos estuarine complex.
