The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and indust...The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research.展开更多
A precise energy conversion factor is required to define the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by gasoline-powered vehi-cles and policies that will guide the application of future eco-innovations.The current energy c...A precise energy conversion factor is required to define the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by gasoline-powered vehi-cles and policies that will guide the application of future eco-innovations.The current energy conversion factor adopted by many countries is based on the Willans line approach,initially proposed in 1888 for steam engines,later adapted for internal combustion engines.The actual energy conversion factor,which defines the energy conversion for drivers in real traffic,is missing.In this article,eight world-class engines are tested in an engine bench for the acquisition of specific fuel consumption 3D maps.Then,their energy conversion factors,calculated by dividing the energy output by the energy input,are simulated in real and urban traffic,acquired according to the real driving emissions(RDE)cycle.In addition,a reference vehicle is instrumented to measure the energy input(fuel flow)and the energy output(mechanical energy in the half axles)under the same RDE cycle standards.The results of both procedures are very similar,respectively,0.405±0.04 L/kWh for the simulation based on eight benchmark engines,and 0.392±0.04 L/kWh for the reference vehicle driven in RDE traffic conditions,with a 95%confidence interval.For turbocharged engines,the factor attained by the simulation is 0.395±0.04 L/kWh.The values of the energy conversion factor for gasoline engines got in this research are higher than those obtained through the Willans line approach,suggesting a new standard value of 0.405 L/kWh,replacing the current 0.264 L/kWh.It could substantially change the greenhouse gas emissions in a tank-to-wheel approach for the entire vehicle and add-on eco-innovations.展开更多
文摘The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research.
基金The authors thank Brazilian Development BNDES for the economic support,the Joint Research Centre JRC for the technical assistance to this project and to Mr.Adam Aslam/Gabriel Santos for the grammar revision.
文摘A precise energy conversion factor is required to define the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by gasoline-powered vehi-cles and policies that will guide the application of future eco-innovations.The current energy conversion factor adopted by many countries is based on the Willans line approach,initially proposed in 1888 for steam engines,later adapted for internal combustion engines.The actual energy conversion factor,which defines the energy conversion for drivers in real traffic,is missing.In this article,eight world-class engines are tested in an engine bench for the acquisition of specific fuel consumption 3D maps.Then,their energy conversion factors,calculated by dividing the energy output by the energy input,are simulated in real and urban traffic,acquired according to the real driving emissions(RDE)cycle.In addition,a reference vehicle is instrumented to measure the energy input(fuel flow)and the energy output(mechanical energy in the half axles)under the same RDE cycle standards.The results of both procedures are very similar,respectively,0.405±0.04 L/kWh for the simulation based on eight benchmark engines,and 0.392±0.04 L/kWh for the reference vehicle driven in RDE traffic conditions,with a 95%confidence interval.For turbocharged engines,the factor attained by the simulation is 0.395±0.04 L/kWh.The values of the energy conversion factor for gasoline engines got in this research are higher than those obtained through the Willans line approach,suggesting a new standard value of 0.405 L/kWh,replacing the current 0.264 L/kWh.It could substantially change the greenhouse gas emissions in a tank-to-wheel approach for the entire vehicle and add-on eco-innovations.
