A fast automatic identification method for seismic belts based on distance correlation and its earthquake case

Earthquake prediction practice and a large number of earthquake cases show that anomalous images of small earthquake belts may appear near the epicenter before strong earthquakes.Through the research of earthquake cases,researchers have a relatively consistent method to determine the clarity of an identified seismic belt,but there is still a lack of method on seismic belt identification from the distribution of scattered points.Due to the complexity of exhaustive algorithm,the rapid automatic identification technique of seismic belts has been progressing slowly.Visual recognition is still the basic method of seismic belt identification.Based on the algorithm of distance correlation,this paper presents a fast automatic identification method of seismic belts.The effectiveness of this method was proved by 100 random earthquakes and an example of seismic belts of magnitude 4.0 before the 2005 Jiujiang M5.7 earthquake.The results show that:①the automatic identification of seismic belts should first identify the"relational earthquake",then identify the"suspected seismic belt",and finally use the criterion of seismic belt clarity to determine;②random earthquakes and real earthquakes identification results show that the distance correlation method can realize the fast automatic identification of seismic belts by computer.

Discussion about the relationship between seismic belt and seismic statistical zone

This paper makes a summary of status of delimitation of seismic zones and belts of China firstly in aspects of studying history, purpose, usage, delimiting principles, various presenting forms and main specialties. Then the viewpoints are emphasized, making geographical divisions by seismicity is just the most important purpose of delimiting seismic belts and the concept of seismic belt is also quite different from that of seismic statistical zone used in CPSHA method. The concept of seismic statistical zone and its history of evolvement are introduced too. Large differences between these rwo concepts exist separately in their statistical property, actual meaning, gradation, required scale, and property of refusing to overlap each other, aim and usage of delimitation. But in current engineering practice, these two concepts are confused. On the one hand, it causes no fit theory for delimiting seismic statistical zone in PSHA to be set up; on the other hand, researches about delimitation of seismic belts with purposes of seismicity zoning and studying on structural environment, mechanism of earthquake generating also pause to go ahead. Major conclusions are given in the end of this paper, that seismic statistical zone bases on the result of seismic belt delimiting, it only arises in and can be used in the especial PSHA method of China with considering spatially and temporally inhomogeneous seismic activities, and its concept should be clearly differentiated from the concept of seismic belt.

Characteristics of satellite-gravity variations in the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake

To study the characteristics of gravity variations in and near the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake,we used the geopotential-field models based on monthly data of the RI.~5 GRACE satellite to calculate the gravity changes. Here we present the patterns of annually cumulative variation, differentiatial variation and secular trend, as well as the continuous time-series at 4 characteristic sites during 2004 -2012. The result shows that the anomalous positive-to-negative transition zone, in which the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was located, did not show any new gravity change before the Lushan earthquake, though located in the same zone.

Relationship between crustal magnetic anomalies and strong earthquake activity in the south segment of the China North-South Seismic Belt

The south segment of the China North-South Seismic Belt is located in the southeast margin of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau.This region is characterized by the frequent seismic activity in Chinese mainland.In this paper,the geomagnetic field model NGDC-720 and the data of terrestrial heat flow are used to investigate the distribution of crustal magnetic anomalies,the depth of Curie surface,and the characteristics of the crustal thermal structure in the south segment of the North-South Seismic Belt.The distribution characteristics of the vertical component AZ and the magnetic declination AD in the area with earthquakes over a magnitude of 6 and their aftershocks since 1970 are focused on.The results show that the earthquakes are mainly observed in the area of negative magnetic anomaly or the strong and weak transition zone.It especially shows in the AD.The Curie surface in the study area varies significantly,ranging from 20.8 to 31 km.The uplift area of the Curie surface is consistent with the high-value area of terrestrial heat flow.The high geothermal area corresponds to the strong earthquake activity area.The focal depth of most strong earthquakes is shallower than the depth of the Curie surface.The strong earthquakes mainly occur in the deep-shallow transition zones of the Curie surface.The results can be used as a reference for strong earthquake prediction in this area.

Crustal velocity, density structure, and seismogenic environment in the southern segment of the North- South Seismic Belt, China

The southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt in China is a critical region for earthquake preparedness and risk reduction efforts.However,limited by the low density of seismic stations and the use of single-parameter physical structural models,the deep tectonic features and seismogenic environment in this area remain controversial.Thus,a comprehensive analysis based on high-resolution crustal structures and multiple physical parameters is required.In this study,we applied the ambient noise tomography method to obtain the three-dimensional(3D)crustal S-wave velocity structure using continuous waveform data from 112 permanent stations and 350 densely distributed temporary stations in the southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt.Then,we obtained the high-resolution 3D density structure through wavenumber-domain 3D gravity imaging constrained by the velocity structure.The low-velocity and low-density anomalies in the upper crust of the study area were mainly distributed in the Sichuan Basin and around Dali and Simao,while the high-velocity and high-density anomalies were primarily distributed in the Panxi region,corresponding to the surface geological features.Two prominent low-velocity and low-density anomalies were observed in the middle and lower crust:one to the west of the Songpan-Garzêblock and Sichuan-Yunnan diamond-shaped block,and the other near the Anninghe-Xiaojiang fault.Combined with the spatial distribution of seismic events in the study area,we found that previous earthquakes predominantly occurred in the transition zones between high and low anomaly regions and in the low-velocity and low-density zones in the upper crust.In contrast,moderate-to-strong earthquakes mainly occurred within the transition zones between high and low anomaly regions and close to the high-velocity and high-density regions,often with low-velocity and low-density layers below their hypocenters.Fluids play a critical role in the seismogenic process by reducing fault strength and destabilizing the stress state,which may be a triggering factor for earthquakes in the study area.Additionally,the upwelling of molten materials from the mantle may lead to energy accumulation and stress conce-ntration,providing an important seismogenic background for moderate-to-strong earthquakes in this area.

Analysis of Seismic Activity in the Middle Part of the North-South Seismic Belt——Joint Study on Deep Seismic Sounding Profile and Seismicity Parameters

Using the rich deep seismic sounding data recorded in the middle part of the NorthSouth Seismic Belt in China,the horizontal and vertical profiles are constructed to obtain the seismic velocity structure,analyze the seismic distribution and calculate the seismic energy and the thickness of the seismogenic layer at the same time.On this basis,the seismicity parameters are calculated using the earthquake catalogue of the study area for the past 40 years,and the relationship between the b-value distribution and the velocity structure is analyzed.The results show an uneven b-value distribution in the study area and a segmented feature along the Longmenshan fault zone.Most of the earthquakes occur in the transition zone anomalies from the positive to the negative.In addition,the thickness of the crust drops from ~60 km to ~48 km from the Southeastern to the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,but the thickness of the seismogenic layer increases gradually.It is speculated that the crustal composition of the Northeastern margin contains more felsic materials and has relatively stronger seismic activities than the Southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,possibly associated with the subduction and compression of the Indian Ocean Plate.

Comparative Study of Global Seismicity on the Hot Engine Belt and the Cooling Seismic Belt—Improvement on Research Ideas of Earthquake Prediction

The study in this paper analyzes and compares the distribution on the global engine active seismic zone and cooling seismic belt basing on the ANSS earthquake catalog from Northern California Earthquake Data Center. An idea of the seismogenesis and earthquake prediction research is achieved by showing the stratigraphic structure in the hot engine belt. The results show that the main engine and its seismic cones are the global seismic activity area, as well as the subject of global geological disaster. Based on the conjecture of other stratum structure, the energy of crustal strong earthquake and volcano activities probably originates from the deep upper mantle. It is suggested that the research on earthquake and volcano prediction should focus on the monitor and analysis on the sub-crustal earthquake activities.

Study on Evolution of Gravity Fieldand Earthquake Prediction in theNorth-south Seismic Belt and theEastern Qinghai-Xizang Block

The relation between the dynamic evolution feature of gravity field and strong seismicity is studied. The result shows that the regional gravity field variation enjoys inhomogeneity of spatial and temporal distribution and gravity change in different regions. It may be resulted from active faults and seismogenic process, and may be due to microdynamic activity of regional strain energy, which might be accumulated or released in different stages, and there exists transformation process of stress.

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of the bvalue in the Hetao Seismic Belt

Focusing on the b-value as the research target and under the theoretical framework that the b-value is determined by stress state and medium properties, the variation characteristics of the b-value in the Hetao seismic belt are analyzed. Earthquakes with ML≥1. 5,which have occurred in the Hetao seismic belt since 1970 are selected to conduct the quantitative detection of the non-uniform temporal change of Mcusing the EMR method. Based on the actual situation of seismic activity,the lower limit magnitude is set as ML2. 0 to calculate the b-value. The temporal variation of the b-value is calculated and scanned using the least square method. The results show that there is a good corresponding relationship between the temporal variation of the b-value,strong earthquake activity,network distribution and aftershock deletion. We also calculate and scan the spatial variation of the b-value by using maximum likelihood. The results show that the spatial difference is possibly caused by stress state and crustal medium properties. The tectonic dependence of the b-value is obvious. In addition,the sufficient earthquakes samples in each magnitude interval are still a key step to improve the calculation accuracy of the b-value.

The North-South Seismic Belt： Vertical Deformation Velocity Gradient Research

The vertical deformation gradient can reflect the rate of vertical change in unit distance,and the vertical deformation velocity gradient can reflect the strength of the earth's crust tectonic activities. In this paper,using long period leveling data combined with GPS data,the vertical deformation gradient values are calculated. Leveling data and GPS data are two different means of monitoring deformation,but the result is approximately the same vertical deformation gradient. The results show that the spatial distribution of the vertical deformation velocity gradient and tectonic distribution has an obvious correlation. The most significant gradient anomalies along the North-South Seismic Belt are Xianshuihe fault, Longmenshan fault and Xiaojiang-Zemuhe fault, while the second gradient anomalies in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan plateau are Zhuanglanghe fault and Lenglongling fault. The Menyuan M_S6. 4 earthquake in 2016 occurred in this abnormal area. However,according to the vertical deformation high gradient area distribution,there is also the possibility of an earthquake occurrence in the Tianzhu and Jingtai area.The area of convergence of three major fault zones is the strongest tectonically active region of the North-South Seismic Belt.

Slip Rates of the Major Faults on the Mid-southern Section of the North-South Seismic Belt Calculated from the Block Theory

In this paper,using the 1999 ~ 2007 GPS velocity field data,and by choosing the optimal block model,we obtained the deformation models applicable to the boundary zones of major blocks and the slip rates of block boundary faults on the mid-southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt. The results show that: on the Longmenshan fault zone,the tensional and compressive slip rate is small on the Baoxing-Wenchuan segment,about 0. 5 ~ 1. 8mm·a- 1, and the rate is relatively significant on the segment of the Wenchuan-Maoxian,as 1. 8 ~ 3. 8mm·a- 1; on the Xianshuihe fault belt,there is a certain difference in spatial distribution between the tensional slip rate and strike-slip rate: the tensional slip rate( 8. 1mm·a- 1) is bigger than the sinistral strike-slip rate( 4. 8mm·a- 1) at the north of the Luhuo region; the tension and compression slip rate is basically the same as the strike-slip rate at Luhuo-Dawu; the Dawu-Kangding section presents a trend of decreased strike-slip rate and increased tensional slip rate; the Kangding-Shimian segment shows a strike-slip nature; the strike-slip rate is significantly greater than the tension /compression rate on the Xiaojiang fault zone; the slip rate on the Red River fault zone shows obvious spatial segmentation,the slip rate is smaller in its northwest part,but with a certain amount of tensional /compression component,4. 7mm·a- 1on the Jingdong segment. The segment east of Jingdong( western Gejiu) is mainly of strike-slip,with a slip rate of 4. 5mm·a- 1.

Research on the Distribution Features of the Benioff Strain Ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt after the Two Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquakes

In view of the correlation between tectonic activity and seismicity,the strong earthquake risk in the North-South Seismic Belt aroused wide concern after the 2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake. Using the seismic catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center,the Benioff strain ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt is calculated in 30 days before and after the March 21,2008 and February 12,2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquakes. Results show that in a year after the 2008 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,M > 5. 0 earthquakes all occurred near the high strain ratio area or the junction between the low and high strain ratio areas,the activity of strong earthquakes obviously coincides with the high strain ratio area,which indicates that these areas have a higher stress level. The Yutian earthquakes promoted the release of small earthquakes in the high stress areas. This research is of certain indicating significance to the study of subsequent strong earthquakes of this region.

The Migration Characteristics of Strong Earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt and Its Relation with the South Asia Seismic Belt

Migration of strong earthquakes (M≥7.0) along the North-South Seismic Belt of China since 1500 AD shows three patterns: Approximately equal time and distance interval migration from N to S, varied patterns of migration from S to N and grouped strong earthquake activity in a certain period over the entire seismic belt. Analysis of strong earthquakes in the past hundred years shows that the seismicity on the North-South Seismic Belt is also associated with strong earthquake activities on the South Asia Seismic Belt which extends from Myanmar to Sumatra, Indonesia. Strong earthquakes on the former belt often lag several months or years behind the quakes occurring on the later belt. So, after the occurrence of the December 26, 2004 M_S8.7 great earthquake off the western coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, the possibility of occurrence of strong earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt of China cannot be ignored. The above-mentioned migration characteristics of strong earthquakes are related to the northeastward collision and subduction of the India Plate as well as the interaction between the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and the stable and hard Ordos and Alashan Massifs at its northeastern margin.

On Shear Wave Splitting in the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea Seismic Belt

The Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea seismic belt is an important seismic zone in North China. The direction of principal compressive stress is near EW in this region. According to digital seismic data from the Capital Region from September 2005 to September 2010,and using the SAM method,the spatial distribution of the crust anisotropy characteristics are studied and discussed in the middle-eastern part of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea seismic belt. The principal polarization direction,which is near EW direction,is obvious in the middleeastern Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea seismic belt. The spatial distribution of polarization direction crossing the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea seismic belt shows that there is little difference among the Yanshan uplift area,inside of the seismic zone and North China basin,and the principal polarization direction is near EW.

Quantitative Seismicity Analysis for the Risk of Historical Large Earthquake Rupture Zone:Application to the Mid-North Segment of the North-South Seismic Belt

Although seismic gap theory plays an important role in the med-and long-term earthquake prediction,the potential risk of the non-seismic gap in historical earthquake rupture areas will need to be simultaneously taken into account in the study of med-and long-term earthquake prediction,due to the temporally clustering or non-linear behavior of large earthquake recurrence.In order to explore technical methods which can be based on observational data,and identify historical earthquake rupture zones( including the seismic gap in historical and prehistoric earthquake rupture zones),we select eight historical large earthquake rupture zones with different elapsed times on the mid-north segment of the North-South Seismic Belt to make quantitative analysis on the characteristics of modern seismicity of these zones and preliminarily explore the seismicity method for determining the urgency degree of potential earthquake hazards.The results mainly show that the pvalue,which reflects the attenuation of earthquake sequence,and the a-value,which reflects the seismicity rate,are strongly related to the elapsed time of the latest earthquake in the rupture zone.However,the corresponding relationships in some rupture areas are not clear perhaps due to the complex fault structure and faulting behavior.The b-value,which represents the state of tectonic stress accumulation,does not easily reflect the elapsed time information of different evolution stages.The b-value temporal scanning shows a steady evolution over time in most of the rupture zones,but in the rupture zone of the Wudu M8.0 earthquake of 1879,the b-value shows significant fluctuations with a decreasing trend for 20 years.By comparative analysis,we conclude that the rupture zones of the 1933 M7.5 Maoxian earthquake and the 1976 M7.2 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake are still in the decaying period of earthquake sequences,and thus do not have the background for recurrence of M7.0 earthquakes.The low b-value Maqu segment,which is located at the north margin of the rupture zone of the 842A.D.M7.0 Diebu earthquake,is more dangerous than the Diebu segment.The continuous decline of the b-value in the 1879 M8.0 Wudu earthquake rupture zone may also indicate a new round of seismogenic process.

Evaluation of the Relative Tectonic Activity from the Faults in the Gengma-Lancang-Menghai Seismic Belt(Southwestern China)

The Gengma-Lancang-Menghai seismic belt,the southernmost part of the North-South seismic belt,is controlled by four active faults:the Nantinghe fault(NTHF),the Sanjianshan fault(SJSF),the Hanmuba-Lancang fault(HMB-LCF),and the Heihe fault(HHF),from northwest to southeast.However,the tectonic activity of the faults in the Gengma-Lancang-Menghai seismic belt has not been fully studied yet.In the present work,we conducted tectonic geomorphic indices to analyze the relative tectonic activity along the faults in the seismic belt based on the digital elevation model.We interpreted asymmetric factor,index of drainage basin shape,hypsometric integral,normalized streamlength gradient,valley floor-to-width to height ratio,and longitudinal profiles to show that the relative tectonic activity is higher in the north and lower in the south,and is strong in the region from Shanjia to Huimin in the center of the seismic belt.

Regional characteristics of stress field in the southern part of the north－south seismic belt in China and its relation with plate movement

The regional characteristics of stress field in the southern part of the northusouth seismic belt (NSB) have beenanalyzed in detail based on the mechanism solutions of 134 medium and large earthquakes from 1933 to 1991.The results show that the southern part of the NSB is a shallow earthquake zone where most earthquakes arecaused by the strike-slip faulting. There is a systematic distribution of the directions of P-and T-axes in thewestern and the eastern regions of the southern part of the NSB. P-and T-axes in the western region are in theNE-SW direction and in the NW-SE direction. P-and T-axes in the eastern region are oriented in NW-SE andNE-SW, respectively. The directions of p-axes in the western and the eastern regions show a pattern of a reversal 'V' as a whole. The boundary between the eastern and western regions coincides with that between the Tibetan Plateau and the Yangtze crustal block. Based on a lot of mechanism solutions, the result indicates that thedirection of P-axes roughly shows the consistent distributions from the Himalayan collision zone to the easternregion and from the eastern coast collision zone in Taiwan to the eastern region of southern part of the NSB, respectively. It is suggested that the tectonic force due to relative movement between the indo-Australian and theEurasian plates is transmitted from the Himalayan collision zone to the western region of the southern part ofNSB, simultaneously, the tectonic force due to the relative movement between the Philippine Sea and theEurasian plates is transmitted from the eastern region coast in Taiwan to the eastern region of the southern partof NSB, and control the stress field there, respectively.

Long－ and intermediate－termseismic poten－tial of Fen－Wei seismic belt：active fault data application

Recurrence model for strong earthquakes on Fen Wei seismic belt is proposed on the basis of the collection and analysis of fault slip rate, paleoearthquake sequence, maximum displacement of each event etc. on 21 fault segments of the belt, which are active since late Late Pleistocene. And the long and intermediate term seismic potential of the belt has been evaluated through four approaches.

Structural features of crust-mantle assemblage in the lithosphere along the Longitudinal Seismic Belt of China and their tectonic effect

The 1°×1° distribution map of crustmantle structural ratio R for the lithosphere along the Longitudinal Seismic Belt of China has been compiled using computer based on the results of geophysical prospecting by previous researchers, and the latest results by the present authors. Based on this map, an insight into the structural features of the crustmantle assemblage along the Longitudinal Seismic Belt has been gained, while their relation to seismic activity and the distributions of geothermal flux and intracrustal high conductivitylow velocity layers, as well as their tectonic effect to seismicity have been discussed.

Expulsion of geopressured hydrothermal system along active faults and its relation to the occurrence of earthquakes in the Shinanogawa seismic belt, Japan

The 1995 Northern Niigata Earthquake (M 6.0) occurred at a shallow depth in the Niigata seismic gap. The anomaly areas in temperature, electrical conductivity and Cl- concentration of groundwater trend northeast as linear distribution in the epicentral area and are approximately coincident with the area of the seismic intensity 6 (JMA scale). The distributions of seismic intensity 6 and groundwater anomalies convincingly imaged the presence of a buried active fault beneath the epicentral area. The occurrence of this earthquake and the anomalies of groundwater were related to the expulsion of geopressured hydrothermal system (GHS). All epicenters of the destructive earthquakes along the Shinanogawa seismic belt are actually located in the buried active fault zones characterized by the areas of temperature and geochemical anomalies of groundwater. These earthquakes might have been triggered by the activity of GHS. The expulsion of GHS along an active fault in combination with the thermal softening of fault zone attributed to high rock temperature may reduce fracture strength of the rock, and trigger earthquake occurrence. The dimension of the anomaly area of groundwater temperature at the epicentral area reflected the scale of the earthquake fault. The linear anomaly areas of groundwater resulting from the expulsion of GHS and having no historical destructive earthquake are of the predicated areas of future destructive earthquakes. Monitoring of groundwater conditions in these areas may provide useful information regarding the future occurrence of earthquakes.