Crustal velocity, density structure, and seismogenic environment in the southern segment of the North- South Seismic Belt, China

The southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt in China is a critical region for earthquake preparedness and risk reduction efforts.However,limited by the low density of seismic stations and the use of single-parameter physical structural models,the deep tectonic features and seismogenic environment in this area remain controversial.Thus,a comprehensive analysis based on high-resolution crustal structures and multiple physical parameters is required.In this study,we applied the ambient noise tomography method to obtain the three-dimensional(3D)crustal S-wave velocity structure using continuous waveform data from 112 permanent stations and 350 densely distributed temporary stations in the southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt.Then,we obtained the high-resolution 3D density structure through wavenumber-domain 3D gravity imaging constrained by the velocity structure.The low-velocity and low-density anomalies in the upper crust of the study area were mainly distributed in the Sichuan Basin and around Dali and Simao,while the high-velocity and high-density anomalies were primarily distributed in the Panxi region,corresponding to the surface geological features.Two prominent low-velocity and low-density anomalies were observed in the middle and lower crust:one to the west of the Songpan-Garzêblock and Sichuan-Yunnan diamond-shaped block,and the other near the Anninghe-Xiaojiang fault.Combined with the spatial distribution of seismic events in the study area,we found that previous earthquakes predominantly occurred in the transition zones between high and low anomaly regions and in the low-velocity and low-density zones in the upper crust.In contrast,moderate-to-strong earthquakes mainly occurred within the transition zones between high and low anomaly regions and close to the high-velocity and high-density regions,often with low-velocity and low-density layers below their hypocenters.Fluids play a critical role in the seismogenic process by reducing fault strength and destabilizing the stress state,which may be a triggering factor for earthquakes in the study area.Additionally,the upwelling of molten materials from the mantle may lead to energy accumulation and stress conce-ntration,providing an important seismogenic background for moderate-to-strong earthquakes in this area.

Quantitative Seismicity Analysis for the Risk of Historical Large Earthquake Rupture Zone:Application to the Mid-North Segment of the North-South Seismic Belt

Although seismic gap theory plays an important role in the med-and long-term earthquake prediction,the potential risk of the non-seismic gap in historical earthquake rupture areas will need to be simultaneously taken into account in the study of med-and long-term earthquake prediction,due to the temporally clustering or non-linear behavior of large earthquake recurrence.In order to explore technical methods which can be based on observational data,and identify historical earthquake rupture zones( including the seismic gap in historical and prehistoric earthquake rupture zones),we select eight historical large earthquake rupture zones with different elapsed times on the mid-north segment of the North-South Seismic Belt to make quantitative analysis on the characteristics of modern seismicity of these zones and preliminarily explore the seismicity method for determining the urgency degree of potential earthquake hazards.The results mainly show that the pvalue,which reflects the attenuation of earthquake sequence,and the a-value,which reflects the seismicity rate,are strongly related to the elapsed time of the latest earthquake in the rupture zone.However,the corresponding relationships in some rupture areas are not clear perhaps due to the complex fault structure and faulting behavior.The b-value,which represents the state of tectonic stress accumulation,does not easily reflect the elapsed time information of different evolution stages.The b-value temporal scanning shows a steady evolution over time in most of the rupture zones,but in the rupture zone of the Wudu M8.0 earthquake of 1879,the b-value shows significant fluctuations with a decreasing trend for 20 years.By comparative analysis,we conclude that the rupture zones of the 1933 M7.5 Maoxian earthquake and the 1976 M7.2 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake are still in the decaying period of earthquake sequences,and thus do not have the background for recurrence of M7.0 earthquakes.The low b-value Maqu segment,which is located at the north margin of the rupture zone of the 842A.D.M7.0 Diebu earthquake,is more dangerous than the Diebu segment.The continuous decline of the b-value in the 1879 M8.0 Wudu earthquake rupture zone may also indicate a new round of seismogenic process.