Analysis of the relationship between water level fluctuation and seismicity in the Three Gorges Reservoir(China)

The Three Gorges Reservoir is a good site for the further researches on reservoir induced seismicity due to decades＇ seismic monitoring. After the first water impounding in 2003, seismic activity becomes more frequent than that before water impoundment. In order to quantitatively study, the relationship between the water level fluctuation and earthquakes in TGR, we introduced statistical methods to attain the goal. First of all, we relocated the earthquakes in TGR region with double difference method and divided the earthquakes into 5 clusters with clustering analysis method. Secondly, to examine the impacts of water level fluctuation in different water filling stages on the seismic activity in the 5 clusters, a series of statistical analyses are applied. Pearson correlation results show that only the 175 m water level fluc- tuation has significantly positive impacts on the seismic activity in clusters I, II, III and V with correlation coefficients of 0.44, 0.38, 0.66 and 0.63. Cross-correlation analysis demonstrates that 0, ], 0 and 0 month time delay separately for the clusters I, II, III and V exists. It illustrated the influences of the water loading and pore pressure diffusion on induced earthquakes. Cointegration tests and impulse response analysis denoted that the 175 m water level only had long term and significant effects just on the seismic events in the intersection region of the Fairy Mount Fault and Nine-brook Fault. One standard deviation shock to 175 m water level increased the seismic activity in cluster V for the first 3 months, and then the negative influence was shown. After 7 months, the negative impulse response becomes stable. The long-term effect of the 175 m water impoundment also proved the important role of pore pressure diffusion in RIS with time.

Simulation by Dislocation Model and Anomaly Property Determination of Huge Leveling Deformation at Linfen Seismic Station

In this study,under the assumption that the two huge leveling deformation anomalies at Linfen seismic station were caused by the Luoyunshan fault( Tumen-Yuli section)movement, we computed the vertical deformation field distribution based on the rectangular fault dislocation model and measured the ground deformation field of the study area using D-InS AR technology. The results are as follows:( 1) Theoretically,the ground vertical deformation field caused by fault movement could be within the elliptical deformation area with the long axis parallel to the fault strike. The largest deformation region is located in the center of the area in the hanging wall of the fault,and the deformation gradually decreases to zero toward the periphery; the impact range induced by the two deformations is respectively as follows: The long axes are about 18 km and26km,the short axes are about 12 km and 17 km and the obvious deformation amplitude is about 1- 3mm and 4- 14 mm.( 2) The measured deformation field by D-InS AR shows that there is no continuous deformation area consistent with the fault strike,and only the presence of land subsidence possibly caused by groundwater excessive exploitation,with the deformation amplitude about 10- 12 mm and 1- 5mm.( 3) The measured deformation field is not consistent with the theoretical result on deformation area and amplitude,which indicates that the fault movement is not the main cause of Linfen huge leveling deformation,but may rather be because of local deformation of the soil layers in the hanging wall of the fault.( 4) By combining the fault dislocation model simulation with the D-InS AR technology measurement,we can determine effectively the nature of the anomalyof the huge cross-fault leveling deformation,thus provide scientific basis for verification of significant leveling anomalies.

A preliminary study on seismic design criteria of offshore platforms in Bohai Sea of China

This paper analyzes the seismicity in Bohai Sea,introducing a shape factor K to characterize the seismic risk distribution in sub-regions of the sea. Based on the seismic design ground motions for 46 platforms located in the Bohai Sea,a statistical analysis was performed for different peak ground acceleration (PGA) ratios at two different probability levels. In accordance with the two-stage design method,a scheme of two seismic design levels is proposed,and two seismic design objectives are established respectively for the strength level earthquake and the ductility level earthquake. By analogy with and comparison to the Chinese seismic design code for buildings,it is proposed that the probability level for the strength level earthquake and ductility level earthquake have a return period of 200 and 1000 - 2500 years,respectively. The validity of these proposed values is discussed. Finally,the PGAs corresponding to these two probability levels are calculated for different sub-regions of the Bohai Sea.

Research on the seismic fortification level of offshore platform in Bohai Sea and adjacent areas

API code is introduced at first, and then a comparison of seismic character and seismic hazard between Bohai and Southern California is carried out. The analysis indicates both the seismic frequency and intensity and the seismic hazard of Bohai are much weaker than that of Southern California. API code states the strength level and deformation level of permanent structures in Southern California takes 200 a and several hundred to a few thousand years respectively. But in the reference codes in China, the seismic levels take 500 a and 10000 a for strength design and deformation design, and it seems too conservative. In China, the deformation level of class A structure takes 2%-3% probabilities of exceedance in reference period 100 a, and that of class B and C often takes 2%-3% in 50 a. Now that offshore platforms may cause server subsequent risk, it is safe to take 1% in 30 a as its deformation design level. On the basis of the above analyses and social economic level and the consistency with present codes, the strength design level and deformation design level of Chinese offshore platforms is suggested to take 200 a and 3000 a respectively.

Study on the Seismic Fortification Criteria of Offshore Platforms in the Bohai Sea

This paper analyzes the seismicity and seismic risk distribution in the Bohai Sea. Based on the seismic design parameters of 46 platforms in the Bohai Sea, a statistic analysis is made on the ratios of the peak accelerations for different probability levels. In accordance with the two-stage design method, a scheme of two design seismic levels is proposed, and two fortification goals are established respectively for strength level earthquakes and ductility level earthquakes. Through analogy and comparison to the Chinese seismic code for buildings, it is proposed that the probability level for the strength and ductility level earthquakes takes return periods of 200a and 1000～2500a respectively, and we further expounded on its rationality. Finally, the fortification parameters in the sub-regions of Bohai Sea area are given in the light of seismic risk zonation and ground motion division. This article is a summary of experiences from many years of offshore platform seismic fortification work, and an exploratory study on the seismic fortification standards of offshore platforms in China, which may provide some references for the establishment of the standard.

Using Ambient Noise to Study the Seismic Velocity Changes Caused by the Rise and Fall of the Water Level in the Zipingpu Reservoir Region

We study the feature of media changes beneath the Zipingpu reservoir and discuss the process of permeation with the water level rise and fall of the reservoir from January 2005 to January 2008 from ambient noise cross correlation by using continuous seismic data recorded by the stations of Zipingpu seismic network and YZP station. A moving-window cross-spectrum technique has been used to calculate the relative seismic velocity changes between station pairs. Results revealed an obvious relationship between relative seismic velocity, and the water level changes with a time delay that may be caused by permeation during three main impoundments and two large scale disemboguements. Impoundment generates a fast and large impact on the superficial layer, and the changes of seismic velocity is the result of increased pressure and permeation during the impoundment. At the first impoundment, the main effect factor is pressure. During the next two process of impoundment, permeation becomes the main effect factor, affecting the fault at a depth of about 8kin.

Region-time-length algorithm and its application to the study of intermediate-short term earthquake precursor in North China

The Region-Time-Length Algorithm (RTL algorithm) is introduced and improved in the paper. Compared with the original definition, the influence of rupture length on RTL function is emphasized and the weights of epicentral distance function, time function, and rupture length function are ensured to be equal. The retrospective examinations of RTL algorithm in North China have indicated that the anomalies obtained by the improved RTL algorithm show the short or intermediate-short term precursory features in most cases. There are two types of RTL anomalous patterns before the main shock. For the I-type, the variation pattern of the VRTL, numerical values of the VRTL(x, y, z, t) function, is complete and most of them have shown the changing pattern of rising from 0 turning dropping or dropping from 0 turning rising. For the II-type, the variation pattern of VRTL is not complete, which increases or decreases quickly from 0 and there is no evident turning, the main shock generally occurs in the short period around the peak VRTL. The rising of VRTL indicates an increase of seismic activity relative to the background level, which means the enhancement of seismic activity, while the dropping of VRTL indicates the decrease of seismic activity relative to the background level, which represents the seismic quiescence to a certain extent. According to statistical examination results of RTL algorithm in North China, the methods to distinguish the intermediate and short-term anomalies and to estimate the occurrence time of the coming main shock are given in the paper. For both I and II-type RTL anomalies, the R-value, i.e., the forecasting score, is about 0.6 and 0.3 for the 3 months forecasting period and about 0.7 and 0.4 for the 6 months forecasting period. The preliminary discussion is also made for the influences of characteristic time-span t0, characteristic distance r0, and threshold magnitude M0 on computation of VRTL, as well as some other significant problems in application.