Probabilistic seismic loss estimation via endurance time method

Probabilistic Seismic Loss Estimation is a methodology used as a quantitative and explicit expression of the performance of buildings using terms that address the interests of both owners and insurance companies. Applying the ATC 58 approach for seismic loss assessment of buildings requires using Incremental Dynamic Analysis （IDA）, which needs hundreds of time-consuming analyses, which in turn hinders its wide application. The Endurance Time Method （ETM） is proposed herein as part of a demand propagation prediction procedure and is shown to be an economical alternative to IDA. Various scenarios were considered to achieve this purpose and their appropriateness has been evaluated using statistical methods. The most precise and efficient scenario was validated through comparison against IDA driven response predictions of 34 code conforming benchmark structures and was proven to be sufficiently precise while offering a great deal of efficiency. The loss values were estimated by replacing IDA with the proposed ETM-based procedure in the ATC 58 procedure and it was fotmd that these values suffer from varying inaccuracies, which were attributed to the discretized nature of damage and loss prediction functions provided by ATC 58.

Seismic loss assessment of RC high-rise buildings designed according to Eurocode 8

A probabilistic seismic loss assessment of RC high-rise(RCHR)buildings designed according to Eurocode 8 and located in the Southern Euro-Mediterranean zone is presented herein.The loss assessment methodology is based on a comprehensive simulation approach which takes into account ground motion(GM)uncertainty,and the random effects in seismic demand,as well as in predicting the damage states(DSs).The methodology is implemented on three RCHR buildings of 20-story,30-story and 40-story with a core wall structural system.The loss functions described by a cumulative lognormal probability distribution are obtained for two intensity levels for a large set of simulations(NLTHAs)based on 60 GM records with a wide range of magnitude(M),distance to source(R)and different site soil conditions(SS).The losses expressed in percent of building replacement cost for RCHR buildings are obtained.In the estimation of losses,both structural(S)and nonstructural(NS)damage for four DSs are considered.The effect of different GM characteristics(M,R and SS)on the obtained losses are investigated.Finally,the estimated performance of the RCHR buildings are checked to ensure that they fulfill limit state requirements according to Eurocode 8.

Assessment of Seismic Indirect Losses Based on Utility Curves

In the process of quantifying optimum seismic design parameters, the losses implying the failure of the system must be assessed. Intangibles such as human lives may lie among indirect losses. In this paper, we propose a model to calculate the value of the investment that society should be willing to make for saving lives. In order to do this, we analyze both individual and social problems. However, special treatment is given to the individual problem where the value of the life of a human being is inferred by what the person should be willing to pay or willing to accept to reduce the risk of dying. Due to the use of utility curves in the calculation of this kind of intangible, we pay special attention to shape and requirement conditions of these curves. We also pay attention when personal impact and legacies or bequests are considered in utility curves. The results are shown through some applications, especially in the computation of optimum seismic design coefficients at a low seismicity site.

Assessment of Intangible Losses in Earthquake Engineering

In order to find optimum design parameters in earthquake engineering, an objective function is optimized. This function comprises the initial cost of a structure and the cost due to the damage of earthquakes. Intangible losses may be included in the latter, such as how much society is willing to invest to preserve a human life. In this paper, the expression of the objective function is developed in terms of the seismic design coefficient, and the aforementioned intangible loss is calculated from both the individual point of view and that of society. The calculation of the intangible is based on utility curves. Finally, optimum seismic design coefficients are calculated for a firm ground site.

Study on the Determination of the Significant National Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions

The paper describes firstly the principles and scientific train of thought involved in determining the significant seismic monitoring and protection regions (SSMPR) in China. The principles include the gradation principle, i.e. the national level SSMPR and the provincial level SSMPR, the principle of highlighting priorities, namely, the area of an SSMPR should be a fraction of the total area of the country or of the respective province, but the earthquake losses incurred in SSMPR should be a major proportion of the national or provincial ones. The scientific train of thought adopted is to determine the SSMPR on the basis of seismic hazard assessment and loss estimation. Secondly, it reviews the achievements in determining the SSMPRs for the period from 1996 to 2005. The result shows that 10 strong earthquakes occurred during that period in the areas with earthquake monitoring and prediction capability available on the Chinese continent, 8 of which occurred in SSMPRs with the economic loss and death toll accounting for 67% and 92% of the total loss on the Chinese mainland. Lastly, the paper introduces preparatory research for determining the SSMPR for the period from 2006 to 2020, including decade-scale mid-and long-range seismic risk assessment based on seismology, seismogeology, geodesy, earthquake engineering, sociology and stochastics and so on, and the national seismic risk probability map, the seismic hazard (intensity) map, earthquake disaster losses map and the comprehensive seismic risk index, etc. obtained for the period of 2006 to 2020.

A Review of the Study on the Uncertainty of Earthquake Loss Estimation

In this paper,the types of research methods that contain uncertainty are first introduced,and then the description is concentrated on the progress of study on different types of uncertainties in seismic disaster and loss estimation. The main methods applied to uncertainty study are reviewed. Preliminary discussion of the problems currently existing in estimation is also made.

Ethical Principles Underlying the Assessment of Indirect Losses Due to Earthquakes

The reliability optimization process in earthquake engineering requires that the expected present value of the total cost is minimized, including the initial cost as well as the damage costs caused by earthquakes, which include indirect costs. One of these costs is concerned with how much society is willing to invest for preserving human life. Ethical principles, on which to base the assessment of this cost, are presented and discussed in this work. Individual and social values are analyzed. Finally, an optimal seismic design coefficient with the results obtained is calculated for a site with low seismicity.

Seismic Risk Assessment of Buildings in the Extended Urban Region of Athens and Comparison with the Repair Cost

A complete research of seismic risk assessment is presented herein focused on the existing build- ings of the extended urban region of Athens in Greece. The seismic risk assessment is fulfilled by discriminating the current study in two approaches, probable and actual, conducting afterwards between them a comparison analysis. In the first part, a pilot methodology is developed for the seismic loss assessment in monetary terms regarding the buildings damages, consistent with the National Programme for Earthquake Management of Existing Buildings (NPEMEB). The building stock consists of typical building types of Southern Europe and refers to 750,085 buildings (18.80% of buildings in Greece) situated in the entire region of Athens according to the results of the 2000-1 statistical census. A wider research of seismic risk assessment could include direct losses of infrastructures and indirect economic losses. The evaluation of loss due to building damage in a certain region requires an assessment of both seismic hazard and vulnerability of the building stock in the study area. Four different existing damage scenarios are applied for the vulnerability assessment. The results of the seismic risk assessment for the four different aspects of the es- timated damage and the different soil conditions are presented in a map of the study region. The existing vulnerability curves corresponding to defined types of buildings have been derived from the National Technical Chamber of Greece and also from recently developed DPMs. The last DPMs were obtained in a previous research (Eleftheriadou, 2009) from the process of a created damage database after the 7th of September 1999 Parnitha’s earthquake and comprised 180,945 buildings which developed damage of varying degree, type and extent. In the second part of the research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/ strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the same (1999 Parnitha’s) seismic event. Data regarding the compatible (budget approved according to the ministry’s provisions) repair cost has been collected. The structural losses in monetary terms for the 180,427 buildings damaged structures are evaluated equal to 2450.0 Μ€, 1887.8 Μ€ and 2118.9 Μ€ based on the previously mentioned statistical seismic risk data. The statistically derived repair cost for Attica is compared with the results of the economic loss esti- mation for buildings using the aforementioned risk assessment methodology. From the analysis results, the seismic scenario based on the recently developed DPMs (Eleftheriadou, 2009) pre- sented the better correlation (2627.77 M€) with the total statistically evaluated repair cost (2450.02 M€). It is important to stress that the inclusion of the coefficient parameter S overes- timates significantly the seismic losses. The last result should be taken into consideration in future risk researches. The comparison of the estimated economic loss with the statistical repair cost calibrates the reliability of the commonly used risk assessment method and serves in the im- provement of seismic security prioritizing the criteria for seismic rehabilitation programmes of existing buildings.

基于粗-细网络模型分步训练的地震数据重建方法

由于地形等复杂条件的限制,叠前地震数据在空间上存在不完整或不规则分布的情况,导致数据出现缺失或混淆等现象。近年来,基于卷积神经网络的方法已经广泛应用于缺失地震数据重建工作。然而一步训练过程的网络模型不足以重建具有宽振幅范围的缺失地震数据,低振幅缺失部分的重建结果仍需改进。因此本文提出一种具有分步训练过程的粗-细网络模型。该模型由粗网络和细网络组成,分步恢复宽振幅范围内的缺失地震数据。在细网络中引入离散小波变换代替池化操作,其可逆性在上采样阶段有利于保留细节特征。模型采用混合损失函数重建缺失信号的真实细节。粗网络的初步恢复结果经过掩码操作处理后输入到细网络,细网络进一步精确恢复缺失部分的低振幅信号。实验结果表明,与残差网络(ResNet)、U型网络(U-Net)和多级小波卷积神经网络(MWCNN)的重建方法相比,本文方法在合成数据和真实数据上展现出更卓越的重建性能:在缺失75%的合成数据上,信噪比为18.818 5 dB;在缺失50%的真实数据上,信噪比为12.2551 dB。在消融研究中,本文模型重建的均方误差为1.689 3×10^(-4),信噪比为19.284 6 dB,峰值信噪比为43.743 5 dB,结构相似性为0.984 1,均优于其他三组对照实验。

基于循环特征推理的大间距缺失地震数据重建方法

【目的】由于急流、裂谷、高山等自然环境的限制,采集的地震数据会出现大间距缺失的现象,影响后续的地震数据处理和地质分析工作,需要对缺失数据进行插值重建。【方法】为解决大间距地震数据缺失问题,提出一种基于循环特征推理的重建方法。首先缺失的地震数据经过部分卷积运算,在计算过程中根据感受野内有效特征图数据的占比,自适应地调整卷积运算结果的权重,避免在连续缺失的地震道上执行无效的卷积操作。然后采用循环特征推理的方式,逐步对缺失部分进行渐进式重建。部分卷积运算和循环特征推理交替进行,直至所有缺失数据重建完成。最后特征融合每次迭代产生的重建特征,以保证推理的准确性。为增强模型对大间距缺失区域纹理细节的学习能力,结合纹理损失和均方误差函数作为复合损失函数,进一步提高重建精度。【结果和结论】结果显示:(1)基于循环特征推理的方法可以有效重建大间距缺失的地震数据,信噪比在原缺失数据的14.89 dB的基础上提升至28.15 dB。(2)连续缺失30道至80道的多次重建实验中,本方法的重建结果信噪比、结构相似性、均方误差等评价指标均优于U-Net方法。采用6种不同公开数据集测试了本方法的重建效果,进一步证明了本方法的有效性。(3)对比实验探究部分卷积核大小对重建结果的影响表明,当部分卷积核大小为3×3时重建结果信噪比更高并且迭代时间更短。研究成果为大间距缺失地震数据的重建方法提供了新的解决思路。

确定全国地震重点监视防御区的研究

首先阐述确定地震重点监视防御区的分级原则（分为国家级和省级），突出重点原则（重点监视防御区面积占全国或省辖面积的较小部分，而其地震损失占总和的大部分）和科学技术思路（以地震危险性预测为基础，以灾害损失的预测为依据确定地震重点监视防御区）。其次，回顾了确定1996～2005年全国地震重点监视防御区的研究成果。回顾表明，在1996～2005年间，发生在我国大陆有监测能力地区的10次强震中，有8次发生在防御区内及其邻近地区，其经济和生命损失已分别占大陆的67％和92％。最后，简要介绍为确定2006-2020年全国地震重点监视防御区而开展的研究工作，包括基于地震学、地震地质学、大地测量学、地震工程学、社会学和预测学而进行的10年尺度的中长期地震危险预测研究，以及所得到的2006-2020年全国地震危险概率预测图、地震危险性（烈度）预测图、地震灾害损失预测图和地震危险性综合指数预测图等。

震灾经济损失评估的遗传神经网络模型

地震灾害造成的直接经济损失与很多因素有关:致灾因子强度,主要包括地震震级、发震时间及地点、震源深度和地震动输入参数等;受灾体密度,主要包括衡量城市经济和社会发展水平的人口密度、城市密度、建筑物密度和财产密度等;城市抵抗地震灾害的能力。这里选取震级、地震动输入参数、人均国内生产总值GDP、受灾面积和灾区人口密度作为网络的输入节点,用直接经济损失率作为网络的输出节点,建立了基于遗传神经网络的震灾经济损失评估模型,对地震灾害所造成的经济损失进行评估,实例验证了该方法的有效性。

中国大陆地震风险分析模型研究(Ⅱ):生命易损性模型

通过比较研究前人的工作成果,采用陈颙等人提出的宏观易损性分析思路,完善了该分析方法的人口和GDP分配方案,同时考虑了前人忽略了的人员死亡率为0时的特殊情况,在收集大量灾害性地震资料的基础上,拟合出了新的地震生命易损性模型.通过和云南省县级尺度上建筑物易损性分类清单法预测结果相对比,证明本文建立的地震生命易损性模型是合理可行的,在地震灾害损失预测和地震应急工作中都具有实际应用价值.

福州市区地震灾害损失预测研究

基于福州市区地震危险性分析、地震地质灾害区划、建筑物和生命线易损性分析及防震减灾信息管理系统,本文介绍了在设定地震、历史地震、盲估地震和实时地震等4种不同地震参数输入下福州市区可能遭遇的地震灾害损失预测成果,提出了依据地面数据精度和设施类型划分的大城市地震灾害损失预测城市核心区、城乡结合部和乡村三个层次方案,并在此基础上确定了地震灾害损失的预测评估单元,即在城市核心区,地震灾害的损失评估单元可以是建筑物、居委会或区;在城乡结合部,地震灾害的损失评估以居委会或区为单元;在乡村地震灾害损失评估以乡镇和自然村为单元。根据系统模块,本文预测了8度地震烈度下福州市区地震灾害的总损失及其空间分布,其中全市区人员死亡约123人,重伤约654人,无家可归者约417100人,直接经济损失156.1亿元,并分析了地震灾害损失空间分布不均匀性的主要原因。

关于地震人员伤亡因素的探讨

地震灾害对人类生命安全的威胁十分巨大，本文对地震造成人员伤亡的因素进行了探讨。首先，分析了地震造成人员伤亡的原因及人员死亡的主要形式；接着，详细研究了影响人员伤亡数量的因素；最后，提出了减少人员伤亡应当采取的几种措施，为减轻地震灾害损失提供了依据。

高速铁路连续梁桥全寿命周期概率地震损失分析

在全概率PBEE方法(PEER-PBEE Methodology)的基础上,建立桥梁结构全寿命周期地震损失计算方法和分析流程。以一座高速铁路连续梁桥为背景,通过地震易损性和地震危险性的卷积确定结构的地震风险概率,最终得到桥梁结构全寿命周期地震损失。研究结果表明:该高速铁路连续梁桥在寿命周期内发生轻微损伤和中等损伤的概率较大,其造成的损失约占全部地震损失的70%;桥梁系统寿命周期震害损失与资金折现率有关,占结构初始成本的1.91%~4.38%;本文研究结果对高速铁路桥梁结构的地震经济损失计算方法和地震巨灾保险的未来推广具有借鉴意义。

基于GIS的地震现场灾害损失评估系统

地震现场灾害损失评估地理信息系统(MapEDLES2001forWindows)是通过组件技术实现的GIS应用系统。系统实现了数据库管理、地图创建、浏览查询、地震破坏抽样统计与灾害损失评估具有集地图、统计图、表格、文字于一体的评估报告自动快速生成、空间数据远程交换、现场视频图像管理与播放等功能。介绍了该系统的灾害损失评估原理、设计思路和系统功能等。

土木工程结构全寿命期地震损失成本进展研究

近年来在西太平洋地区发生的一系列重大自然灾害如地震、飓风等给人类社会敲响了警钟,为了应对重大自然灾害的不利影响,世界各国政府都在研究或已经出台了防灾减灾保险法律如地震保险法加以应对,这应该说是防灾减灾研究的一个必然的趋势。而完善的地震保险政策的出台必须建立在工程结构全寿命期地震损失成本研究的基础上。由于我国目前工程结构全寿命期地震损失成本研究等基础应用研究的缺乏导致我国巨灾保险政策迟迟难以推出,基于此,总结和回顾了工程结构全寿命期地震损失成本研究的理论内涵和研究现状,分析了以往工程结构地震易损性研究和全寿命期地震损失成本研究所面临的理论缺陷和应用局限,重点阐述了基于组合的地震易损性研究的理论优势、具体实施步骤和关键技术特点,最后展望了基于此建立我国工程结构全寿命期地震损失成本研究框架体系的重大意义。

基于格网的全国尺度地震灾害损失预测系统设计与实现

空间格网数据相比于矢量数据具有运算速度快、处理简单的特点,适合地震灾害损失震前预测或震后快速评估。但地震损失评估涉及地震危险性及人口、房屋建筑及其地震易损性等不同类型数据在全国范围内的千米格网分布,数据量大,数据变化时形成新的格网数据的工作量较大,使用常规震害预测算法会影响评估效率。依据地震损失评估原理,采取前置确定性损失评估策略和算法优化,结合GIS功能设计并编程实现了具有风险评估相关数据千米格网化处理、地震损失预测与震后快速评估等核心功能的软件系统。利用该系统进行了2016~2025年中国大陆千米格网地震损失预测,结果表明评估效率显著提高,该系统为我国新一代地震重点监视防御区的确定提供了实用化的震害损失预测工具,同时,在地震损失快速评估中亦得到较好应用。