Probabilistic analysis of tunnel face seismic stability in layered rock masses using Polynomial Chaos Kriging metamodel

Face stability is an essential issue in tunnel design and construction.Layered rock masses are typical and ubiquitous;uncertainties in rock properties always exist.In view of this,a comprehensive method,which combines the Upper bound Limit analysis of Tunnel face stability,the Polynomial Chaos Kriging,the Monte-Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Covariance method(ULT-PCK-MA),is proposed to investigate the seismic stability of tunnel faces.A two-dimensional analytical model of ULT is developed to evaluate the virtual support force based on the upper bound limit analysis.An efficient probabilistic analysis method PCK-MA based on the adaptive Polynomial Chaos Kriging metamodel is then implemented to investigate the parameter uncertainty effects.Ten input parameters,including geological strength indices,uniaxial compressive strengths and constants for three rock formations,and the horizontal seismic coefficients,are treated as random variables.The effects of these parameter uncertainties on the failure probability and sensitivity indices are discussed.In addition,the effects of weak layer position,the middle layer thickness and quality,the tunnel diameter,the parameters correlation,and the seismic loadings are investigated,respectively.The results show that the layer distributions significantly influence the tunnel face probabilistic stability,particularly when the weak rock is present in the bottom layer.The efficiency of the proposed ULT-PCK-MA is validated,which is expected to facilitate the engineering design and construction.

Introduction to a recently released dataset entitled CSNCD:A Comprehensive Dataset of Chinese Seismic Network

China and its adjacent regions are heavily affected by earthquake disasters,which has led to strong demand and vigorous development of the Chinese Seismic Network(CSN).Since 2004,China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)has been authorized by China Earthquake Administration(CEA)to take charge of CSN management,mainly observing product output and quality control.

An adaptive physics-informed deep learning method for pore pressure prediction using seismic data

Accurate prediction of formation pore pressure is essential to predict fluid flow and manage hydrocarbon production in petroleum engineering.Recent deep learning technique has been receiving more interest due to the great potential to deal with pore pressure prediction.However,most of the traditional deep learning models are less efficient to address generalization problems.To fill this technical gap,in this work,we developed a new adaptive physics-informed deep learning model with high generalization capability to predict pore pressure values directly from seismic data.Specifically,the new model,named CGP-NN,consists of a novel parametric features extraction approach(1DCPP),a stacked multilayer gated recurrent model(multilayer GRU),and an adaptive physics-informed loss function.Through machine training,the developed model can automatically select the optimal physical model to constrain the results for each pore pressure prediction.The CGP-NN model has the best generalization when the physicsrelated metricλ=0.5.A hybrid approach combining Eaton and Bowers methods is also proposed to build machine-learnable labels for solving the problem of few labels.To validate the developed model and methodology,a case study on a complex reservoir in Tarim Basin was further performed to demonstrate the high accuracy on the pore pressure prediction of new wells along with the strong generalization ability.The adaptive physics-informed deep learning approach presented here has potential application in the prediction of pore pressures coupled with multiple genesis mechanisms using seismic data.

Time-domain dynamic constitutive model suitable for mucky soil site seismic response

Soil nonlinear behavior displays noticeable effects on the site seismic response.This study proposes a new functional expression of the skeleton curve to replace the hyperbolic skeleton curve.By integrating shear modulus and combining the dynamic skeleton curve and the damping degradation coefficient,the constitutive equation of the logarithmic dynamic skeleton can be obtained,which considers the damping effect in a soil dynamics problem.Based on the finite difference method and the multi-transmitting boundary condition,a 1D site seismic response analysis program called Soilresp1D has been developed herein and used to analyze the time-domain seismic response in three types of sites.At the same time,this study also provides numerical simulation results based on the hyperbolic constitutive model and the equivalent linear method.The results verify the rationality of the new soil dynamic constitutive model.It can analyze the mucky soil site nonlinear seismic response,reflecting the deformation characteristics and damping effect of the silty soil.The hysteresis loop area is more extensive,and the residual strain is evident.

Potential of the Arkhangelsk seismic network for European Arctic monitoring

The Arkhangelsk Seismic Network(ASN)of the N.Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences,founded in 2003,includes 10 permanent seismic stations located on the coasts of the White,Barents,and Kara Seas and on the Arctic archipelagos of Novaya Zemlya,Franz Josef Land,and Severnaya Zemlya.The network is registered with the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks and the International Seismological Center.We used not only ASN data to process earthquakes but also the waveforms of various international seismic stations.The 13,000 seismic events were registered using ASN data for 2012-2022,and for 5,500 of them,we determined the parameters of the earthquake epicenters from the European Arctic.The spatial distribution of epicenters shows that the ASN monitors not only the main seismically active zones but also weak seismicity on the shelf of the Barents and Kara Seas.The representative magnitude of ASN was ML,rep=3.5.The level of microseismic noise has seasonal variations that affect the registration capabilities of each station included in the ASN and the overall sensitivity of the network as a whole.In summer,the sensitivity of the ASN decreased owing to the increasing microseismic and ambient noises,whereas in winter,the sensitivity of the ASN increased significantly because of the decrease.

Resilience-incorporated seismic risk assessment of precast concrete frames with“dry”connections

A resilience-incorporated risk assessment framework is proposed and demonstrated in this study to manifest the advantageous seismic resilience of precast concrete frame(PCF)structures with“dry”connections in terms of their low damage and rapid recovery.The framework integrates various uncertainties in the seismic hazard,fragility,capacity,demand,loss functions,and post-earthquake recovery.In this study,the PCF structures are distinguished from ordinary reinforced concrete frame(RCF)structures by characterizing multiple limit states for the PCF based on its unique damage mechanisms.Accordingly,probabilistic story-wise pushover analyses are performed to yield story-wise capacities for the predefined limit states.In the seismic resilience analysis,a step-wise recovery model is proposed to idealize the functionality recovery process,with separate considerations of the repair and non-repair events.The recovery model leverages the economic loss and downtime to delineate the stochastic post-earthquake recovery curves for the resilience loss estimation.As such,contingencies in the probabilistic post-earthquake repairs are incorporated and the empirical judgments on the recovery parameters are largely circumvented.The proposed framework is demonstrated through a comparative study between two“dry”connected PCFs and one RCF designed as alternative structural systems for a prototype building.The results from the risk quantification indicate that the PCFs show reduced loss hazards and lower expected losses relative to the RCF.Particularly,the PCF equipped with energy dissipation devices at the“dry”connections largely reduces the expected economic loss,downtime,and resilience loss by 29%,56%,and 60%,respectively,compared to the RCF.

The 2023 Turkey earthquake doublet: Earthquake relocation, seismic tomography, and stress field inversion

On February 6,2023,two earthquakes with magnitudes of M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 struck southeastern Turkey,causing significant casualties and economic losses.These seismic events occurred along the East Anatolian Fault Zone,a convergent boundary between the Arabian Plate and the Anatolian Subplate.In this study,we analyze the M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes by comparing their aftershock relocations,tomographic images,and stress field inversions.The earthquakes were localized in the upper crust and exhibited steep dip angles.Furthermore,the aftershocks occurred either close to the boundaries of low and high P-wave velocity anomaly zones or within the low P-wave velocity anomaly zones.The East Anatolia Fault,associated with the M_(W) 7.8 earthquake,and the SürgüFault,related to the M_(W) 7.5 earthquake,predominantly experienced shear stress.However,their western sections experienced a combination of strike-slip and tensile stresses in addition to shear stress.The ruptures of the M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes appear to have bridged a seismic gap that had seen sparse seismicity over the past 200 years prior to the 2023 Turkey earthquake sequence.

A reweighted damped singular spectrum analysis method for robust seismic noise suppression

(Multichannel)Singular spectrum analysis is considered as one of the most effective methods for seismic incoherent noise suppression.It utilizes the low-rank feature of seismic signal and regards the noise suppression as a low-rank reconstruction problem.However,in some cases the seismic geophones receive some erratic disturbances and the amplitudes are dramatically larger than other receivers.The presence of this kind of noise,called erratic noise,makes singular spectrum analysis(SSA)reconstruction unstable and has undesirable effects on the final results.We robustify the low-rank reconstruction of seismic data by a reweighted damped SSA(RD-SSA)method.It incorporates the damped SSA,an improved version of SSA,into a reweighted framework.The damping operator is used to weaken the artificial disturbance introduced by the low-rank projection of both erratic and random noise.The central idea of the RD-SSA method is to iteratively approximate the observed data with the quadratic norm for the first iteration and the Tukeys bisquare norm for the rest iterations.The RD-SSA method can suppress seismic incoherent noise and keep the reconstruction process robust to the erratic disturbance.The feasibility of RD-SSA is validated via both synthetic and field data examples.

Detailed seismic zoning of the East Kazakhstan region in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,developed by our Institute of Seismology using a new methodological approach for Kazakhstan.The article is about creating the first normative map of the Detailed Seismic Zoning on a probabilistic foundation for the Republic of Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region.We carried out the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard using a methodology consistent with the main provisions of Eurocode 8and updated compared with that used in developing maps of Kazakhstan’s General Seismic Zoning and seismic microzoning of Almaty.The most thorough and current data accessible for the area under consideration were combined with contemporary analytical techniques.Updates have been done to not only the databases being used but also the way seismic sources were shown,including active faults now.On a scale of 1:1000000,precise seismic zoning maps of the East Kazakhstan region were created for two probabilities of exceedance:10%and 2%in 50 years in terms of peak ground accelerations and macroseismic intensities.The obtained seismic hazard distribution is generally consistent with the General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan’s previous findings.However,because active faults were included and a thoroughly revised catalog was used,there are more pronounced zones of increased danger along the fault in the western part of the region.In the west of the territory,acceleration values also increased due to a more accurate consideration of seismotectonic conditions.Zoning maps are the basis for developing new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Hcable for Time-Lapse Seismic Monitoring of Marine Carbon Capture and Storage

To ensure project safety and secure public support, an integrated and comprehensive monitoring program is needed within a carbon capture and storage(CCS) project. Monitoring can be done using many well-established techniques from various fields, and the seismic method proves to be the crucial one. This method is widely used to determine the CO_(2) distribution, image the plume development, and quantitatively estimate the concentration. Because both the CO_(2) distribution and the potential migration pathway can be spatially small scale, high resolution for seismic imaging is demanded. However, obtaining a high-resolution image of a subsurface structure in marine settings is difficult. Herein, we introduce the novel Hcable(Harrow-like cable system) technique, which may be applied to offshore CCS monitoring. This technique uses a highfrequency source(the dominant frequency>100 Hz) to generate seismic waves and a combination of a long cable and several short streamers to receive seismic waves. Ultrahigh-frequency seismic images are achieved through the processing of Hcable seismic data. Hcable is then applied in a case study to demonstrate its detailed characterization for small-scale structures. This work reveals that Hcable is a promising tool for timelapse seismic monitoring of oceanic CCS.

On electro-acoustic characteristics of a marine broadband sparker for seismic exploration

The construction of major marine infrastructure projects and the exploration and development of deep-sea mineral resources require fine imaging of seabed strata and structures.The highresolution marine seismic exploration based on a high broadband sparker source is an important approach to reveal seabed stratum and reservoir structure,and identify geohazard.To optimize the performance of sparker seismic source,we investigated the electro-acoustic characteristics of spark discharge under conditions of different charging voltages and electrode numbers.Results show that the sound source level increased with the increase of the charging voltage,whereas the main frequency decreased when the charging voltage increases.In addition,it was found that the charging capacitance had more obvious influence on the main frequency than the sound source level did.Although the load energy decreased with increasing electrode number,the sound source level still increased but the main frequency decreased.Meanwhile,the primary to bubble(P/B)ratio increased with the increase of the electrode number.To gain a deeper insight into the electro-acoustic characteristics,we investigate the relationship between sound source level and power peak,from which a good correlation was observed.A more practical statistical analysis on the rise rate of current was processed,and a perfect logarithmic function was derived.Furthermore,we found that the main frequency was most possibly subjected to the electrical energy,especially the charging energy per electrode.The results indicate that the charging energy per electrode less than 10 J could increase the main frequency to above 300 Hz.At last,the main frequency could be reduced to 20 Hz when the charging energy of a single-electrode discharge was enhanced to over 4 kJ.This study shall be helpful in developing a sparker seismic source and improving the performance for marine engineering exploration and geohazard assessment.

The seismicity in the middle section of the Altyn Tagh Fault system revealed by a dense nodal seismic array

The left-lateral Altyn Tagh Fault(ATF) system is the northern boundary of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, separating the Tarim Basin and the Qaidam Basin. The middle section of ATF has not recorded any large earthquakes since1598 AD, so the potential seismic hazard is unclear. We develope an earthquake catalog using continuous waveform data recorded by the Tarim-Altyn-Qaidam dense nodal seismic array from September 17 to November23, 2021 in the middle section of ATF. With the machine learning-based picker, phase association, location, match and locate workflow, we detecte 233 earthquakes with M_L-1–3, far more than 6 earthquakes in the routine catalog. Combining with focal mechanism solutions and the local fault structure, we find that seismic events are clustered along the ATF with strike-slip focal mechanisms and on the southern secondary faults with thrusting focal mechanisms. This overall seismic activity in the middle section of the ATF might be due to the northeastward transpressional motion of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau block at the western margin of the Qaidam Basin.

Erratum to:A review of the wave gradiometry method for seismic imaging

Earthq Sci 2023(36):254-281 Doi:10.1016/j.eqs.2023.04.002 In the original version of this article,the important funding source was inadvertently omitted in Acknowledgement section.The corrected one is as follows.

Application of 9-component S-wave 3D seismic data to study sedimentary facies and reservoirs in a biogasbearing area:A case study on the Pleistocene Qigequan Formation in Taidong area,Sanhu Depression,Qaidam Basin,NW China

To solve the problems in restoring sedimentary facies and predicting reservoirs in loose gas-bearing sediment,based on seismic sedimentologic analysis of the first 9-component S-wave 3D seismic dataset of China,a fourth-order isochronous stratigraphic framework was set up and then sedimentary facies and reservoirs in the Pleistocene Qigequan Formation in Taidong area of Qaidam Basin were studied by seismic geomorphology and seismic lithology.The study method and thought are as following.Firstly,techniques of phase rotation,frequency decomposition and fusion,and stratal slicing were applied to the 9-component S-wave seismic data to restore sedimentary facies of major marker beds based on sedimentary models reflected by satellite images.Then,techniques of seismic attribute extraction,principal component analysis,and random fitting were applied to calculate the reservoir thickness and physical parameters of a key sandbody,and the results are satisfactory and confirmed by blind testing wells.Study results reveal that the dominant sedimentary facies in the Qigequan Formation within the study area are delta front and shallow lake.The RGB fused slices indicate that there are two cycles with three sets of underwater distributary channel systems in one period.Among them,sandstones in the distributary channels of middle-low Qigequan Formation are thick and broad with superior physical properties,which are favorable reservoirs.The reservoir permeability is also affected by diagenesis.Distributary channel sandstone reservoirs extend further to the west of Sebei-1 gas field,which provides a basis to expand exploration to the western peripheral area.

Quantifying the Effects of Near-Surface Viscosity on Seismic Acquisition Geometry: A case study from Chepaizi Exploration Area, Junggar Basin (NW China)

The Chepaizi Exploration Area,Junggar Basin(NW China)holds substantial importance for seismic exploration endeavors,yet it poses notable challenges due to the intricate nature of its subsurface and near-surface conditions.To address these challenges,we introduce a novel and comprehensive workflow tailored to evaluate and optimize seismic acquisition geometries while considering the impacts of near-surface viscosity.By integrating geological knowledge,historical seismic data,and subsurface modeling,we conduct simulations employing the visco-acoustic wave equation and reverse-time migration to produce detailed subsurface images.The quality of these images is quantitatively evaluated using a local similarity metric,a pivotal tool for evaluating the accuracy of seismic imaging.The culmination of this workflow results in an automated optimization strategy for acquisition geometries that enhances subsurface exploration.Our proposed methodology underscores the importance of incorporating near-surface viscosity effects in seismic imaging,offering a robust framework for improving the accuracy of subsurface imaging.Herein,we aim to contribute to the advancement of seismic imaging methodologies by providing valuable insights for achieving high-quality seismic exploration outcomes in regions characterized by complex subsurface and near-surface conditions.

Tracing the pace of an approaching‘seismic dragon king’:Additional evidence for the Noto earthquake swarm and the 2024 M_(W) 7.5 Noto earthquake

‘Dragon king’theory of extreme events has been systematically proposed and discussed since 2012,the last‘year of dragon’in the Chinese lunar calendar(Sornette and Ouillon,2012;Yukalov and Sornette,2012;Sachs et al.,2012),and has been under discussion till present(e.g.,Eliazar,2017;Lin et al.,2018;Glette-Iversen and Aven,2021;Premraj et al.,2021;Lei et al.,2023).In this theoretical framework based on the physics of complexity,a‘dragon king’is defined as an event so extreme that it lies outside a power-law distribution.What is of special interest is that,according to its theory,a‘dragon king’event should pose significant predictability(Sornette and Ouillon,2012).As the next‘year of dragon’approaches soon,it is worth revisiting this concept.

N-th root slant stack for enhancing weak seismic signals

Seismic imaging of complicated underground structures with severe surface undulation(i.e.,double complex areas)is challenging owing to the difficulty of collecting the very weak reflected signal.Enhancing the weak signal is difficult even with state-of-the-art multi-domain and multidimensional prestack denoising techniques.This paper presents a time–space dip analysis of offset vector tile(OVT)domain data based on theτ-p transform.The proposed N-th root slant stack method enhances the signal in a three-dimensionalτ-p domain by establishing a zero-offset time-dip seismic attribute trace and calculating the coherence values of a given data sub-volume(i.e.,inline,crossline,time),which are then used to recalculate the data.After sorting,the new data provide a solid foundation for obtaining the optimal N value of the N-th root slant stack,which is used to enhance a weak signal.The proposed method was applied to denoising low signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)data from Western China.The optimal N value was determined for improving the SNR in deep strata,and the weak seismic signal was enhanced.The results showed that the proposed method effectively suppressed noise in low-SNR data.

ChatGPT in transforming communication in seismic engineering: Case studies, implications, key challenges and future directions

Seismic engineering,a critical field with significant societal implications,often presents communication challenges due to the complexity of its concepts.This paper explores the role of Artificial Intelligence(AI),specifically OpenAI’s ChatGPT,in bridging these communication gaps.The study delves into how AI can simplify intricate seismic engineering terminologies and concepts,fostering enhanced understanding among students,professionals,and policymakers.It also presents several intuitive case studies to demonstrate the practical application of ChatGPT in seismic engineering.Further,the study contemplates the potential implications of AI,highlighting its potential to transform decision-making processes,augment education,and increase public engagement.While acknowledging the promising future of AI in seismic engineering,the study also considers the inherent challenges and limitations,including data privacy and potential oversimplification of content.It advocates for the collaborative efforts of AI researchers and seismic experts in overcoming these obstacles and enhancing the utility of AI in the field.This exploration provides an insightful perspective on the future of seismic engineering,which could be closely intertwined with the evolution of AI.

Equivalent linear model for seismic damage evaluation of single-degree-of-freedom systems representing reinforced concrete structures considering cyclic degradation behavior

In this study,a novel equivalent damping ratio model that is suitable for reinforced concrete(RC)structures considering cyclic degradation behavior is developed,and a new equivalent linearization analysis method for implementing the proposed equivalent damping ratio model for use in seismic damage evaluation is presented.To this end,Ibarra’s peak-oriented model,which incorporates an energy-based degradation rule,is selected for representing hysteretic behavior of RC structure,and the optimized equivalent damping for predicting the maximum displacement response is presented by using the empirical method,in which the effect of cyclic degradation is considered.Moreover,the relationship between the hysteretic energy dissipation of the inelastic system and the elastic strain energy of the equivalent linear system is established so that the proposed equivalent linear system can be directly integrated with the Park-Ang seismic model to implement seismic damage evaluation.Due to the simplicity of the equivalent linearization method,the proposed method provides an efficient and reliable way of obtaining comprehensive insight into the seismic performance of RC structures.The verification demonstrates the validity of the proposed method.

Numerical Simulation of the Seismic Response of a Horizontal Storage Tank Based on a SPH-FEM Coupling Method

A coupled numerical calculation method combining smooth particle hydrodynamics(SPH)and the finite element method(FEM)was implemented to investigate the seismic response of horizontal storage tanks.Anumericalmodel of a horizontal storage tank featuring a free liquid surface under seismic action was constructed using the SPH–FEM coupling method.The stored liquid was discretized using SPH particles,while the tank and supports were discretized using the FEM.The interaction between the stored liquid and the tank was simulated by using the meshless particle contact method.Then,the numerical simulation results were compared and analyzed against seismic simulation shaking table test data to validate the method.Subsequently,a series of numerical models,considering different liquid storage volumes and seismic effects,were constructed to obtain time history data of base shear and top center displacement,which revealed the seismic performance of horizontal storage tanks.Numerical simulation results and experimental data showed good agreement,with an error rate of less than 18.85%.And this conformity signifies the rationality of the SPH-FEM coupling method.The base shear and top center displacement values obtained by the coupled SPH-FEM method were only 53.3% to 69.1% of those calculated by the equivalent mass method employed in the current code.As the stored liquid volume increased,the seismic response of the horizontal storage tank exhibited a gradual upward trend,with the seismic response increasing from 73% to 388% for every 35% increase in stored liquid volume.The maximum von Mises stress of the tank and the supports remained below the steel yield strength during the earthquake.The coupled SPH-FEM method holds certain advantages in studying the seismic problems of tanks with complex structural forms,particularly due to the representation of the flow field distribution during earthquakes by involving reservoir fluid participation.