The forecasting efficiency under different selected regions by Pattern Informatics Method and seismic potential estimation in the North-South Seismic Zone

In 2022,four earthquakes with M_(S)≥6.0 including the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone(NSSZ),which demonstrated high and strong seismicity.Pattern Informatics(PI)method,as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method,has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance.The earthquake catalog with magnitude above M_(S)3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically.Based on this,we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes.A“forward”forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk.The study shows the following.1)PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller.2)In areas with smaller differences of seismicity,the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map.3)The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes,which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future.This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity,such as Japan,Californi,Turkey,and Indonesia.

A 15-year-Long catalog of seismicity in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone(ETSZ)using matched filter detection

We present a detailed catalog of 13671 earthquakes in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone(ETSZ)that spans January 1,2005 to July 31,2020.We apply a matched filter detection technique on over 15 years of continuous data,resulting in arguably the most complete catalog of seismicity in the ETSZ yet.The magnitudes of newly detected events are determined by computing the amplitude ratio between the detections and templates using a principal component fit.We also compute the b-value for the new catalog and comparatively relocate a subset of newly detected events using XCORLOC and hypoDD,which shows a more defined structure at depth.We find the greatest concentration along and to the east of the New York-Alabama Lineament,as defined by the magnetic anomaly,supporting the argument that this feature likely is related to the generation of seismicity in the ETSZ.We examine seismicity in the vicinity of the Watts Bar Reservoir,which is located about 5 km from the epicenter of the M_(W) 4.4 December 12,2018 Decatur,Tennessee earthquake,and find possible evidence for reservoir modulated seismicity in this region.We also examine seismicity in the entire ETSZ to search for a correlation between shallow earthquakes and seasonal hydrologic changes.Our results show limited evidence for hydrologicallydriven shallow seismicity due to seasonal groundwater levels in the ETSZ,which contradicts previous studies hypothesizing that most intraplate earthquakes are associated with the dynamics of hydrologic cycles.

Correlation between plate age and layer separation of double seismic zones

Global seismicity catalogs are sufficient for characterizing double seismic zones （DSZs） in subducting slab and facilitate to estimate layer separation without inconsistent uncertainties as local catalogs. Previous studies have shown the correlation between DSZs layer separation and plate age while correlation for those younger than -60 Ma is suspicious. The lacking of DSZs with layer separation less than 10 km further makes it difficult to precisely estimate such correlation. Thus, we incorporate eight DSZs data determined through local seismicity into globally-determined dataset and reexamine such correlation. The best fitting results show that both a linear model and a square root of plate age can mathematically fit the layer separation well. However, it is difficult to distinguish these two models when plate age is greater than -20 Ma since their difference is less than 2 km. However, if extrapolation is possible, both models should provide physical information that DSZs will not form if there is no subducting lithosphere. As a result, the DSZs cannot be produced until the oceanic lithospheric age becomes greater than 0.9 Ma in the square root model while the linear model gives a misleading result. As such the square root model demonstrates the relationship physically better than the linear one, it still needs further test in the future with more available data, nevertheless, our study might also provide evidence for the suggestion that the plate age is a primary control factor of the DSZs geometry as well as the subducting process which disregards any local tectonic stresses.

Effect of Aftershocks on Assessment of Seismic Hazard for Hebei Seismic Zone,China

In this paper, the earthquake hazard parameters (λ m,b and M max) from the maximum likelihood method for the raw catalogue and declustered catalogues have been used to discuss the effect of the aftershocks on the earthquake hazard estimation. The declustered catalogues have been compiled from the raw catalogues by deleting the aftershocks in different time interval after main shock according to the criteria for the aftershock activity period. As an example, Hebei seismic zone is taken to show the effect of the aftershock on the earthquake hazard assessment because three strong earthquakes with the aftershocks occurred from 1966 to 1976. The results have been shown that the effect of the aftershocks on the parameters λ m,b is significant. The difference between the clustered and declustered catalogues has reached in seismic activity rate and recurrence period, at most, 45% and 90%, respectively. But the difference in M max is smaller. Based on this, the suggestion that the aftershocks should be omitted in the estimation of the earthquake hazard could be made, but how long the aftershocks activity duration is still left to the future research.

An Analysis on Correlativity between Large Earthquakes in the Hindu Kush-Pamir and Tienshan Seismic Zone

In this paper,we introduce the tectonic setting,historical earthquake focal mechanisms and geodynamic environment of Tienshan and its neighboring regions, and draw a conclusion that large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are governed mainly by the pushing from Hindu Kush-Pamir syntax. Secondly,the relationship of large earthquakes in the Hindu Kush-Pamir region and the Tienshan seismic zone is investigated,and synchronization features are found existing in the grouped large earthquakes between the large earthquakes in two regions. The relationship between intermediate-focus large earthquakes in Hindu Kush-Pamir and shallow large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone is also discussed. The same synchronization characteristics are found,and the intensity and frequency of intermediate-focus earthquakes are fiercer, while large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are more intense,with a wider distribution range. The above results confirm the geodynamic correlativity between Hindu Kush-Pamir and the Tienshan seismic zone from the viewpoint of seismicity.

Lattice-Preferred orientations of olivine in subducting oceanic lithosphere derived from the observed seismic anisotropies in double seismic zones

Subduction zones can generally be classified into Mariana type and Chilean type depending on plate ages, plate thicknesses, subduction angles, back-arc deformation patterns, etc. The double seismic zones （DSZs） in sub- duction zones are mainly divided into type I and type II which, respectively, correspond to the Mariana type and Chilean type in most cases. Seismic anisotropy is an important parameter characterizing the geophysical fea- tures of the lithosphere, including the subduction zones, and can be described by the two parameters of delay time ~t and fast wave polarization direction ~b. We totally col- lected 524 seismic anisotropy data records from 24 DSZs and analyzed the statistical correlations between seismic anisotropy and the related physical parameters of DSZs. Our statistical analysis demonstrated that the fast wave polarization directions are parallel to the trench strike with no more than 30~ for most type I DSZs, while being nearlyperpendicular to the trench strike for type II DSZs. We also calculated roughly linear correlations that the delay time 6t increases with dip angles but decreases with subduction rates. A linear equation was summarized to describe the strong correlation between DSZ＇s subduction angle DSZ and seismic anisotropy in subduction zones. These results suggest that the anisotropic structure of the subducting lithosphere can be described as a possible equivalent crystal similar to the olivine crystal with three mutually orthogonal polarization axes, of which the longest and the second axes are nearly along the trench-perpendicular and trench-parallel directions, respectively.

Seismic imaging of the double seismic zone in the subducting slab in Northern Chile

Double seismic zones are commonly observed in the subducting slabs in a global scale,serving as ideal examples for studying the seismogenetic mechanism of the intermediate-depth earthquakes.In this study,we relocate earthquakes and determine seismic velocity models using the double-difference seismic tomography method in the northern Chile subduction zone where a double seismic zone exists.The results suggest that the double seismic zone in northern Chile is located at about 50-140 km depth,with an interval of approximately 20 km between the two zones.The upper seismic zone is characterized by relatively low Vp(~7.8-8.0 km/s),low Vs(~4.4-4.5 km/s)and high Vp/Vs(~1.85)above the depth of~90 km,while the region below~90 km is distinguished by relatively high Vp(~8.2 km/s),high Vs(~4.8 km/s)and slightly high Vp/Vs(~1.75),which may be related to a series of dehydration reactions of hydrous minerals in the subducted oceanic crust.In comparison,the lower seismic zone is featured by the anomaly of low Vp/Vs(~1.7),although some local areas may consist of relatively high Vp/Vs values(~1.8),possibly due to the dehydration reaction of serpentine.Based on the Vp,Vs,Vp/Vs anomalies combined with previous petrological experiments and thermodynamic models,it can be derived that intermediate-depth earthquakes are mainly related to the dehydration of various hydrous minerals in the subducting slab.The dehydration process of hydrous minerals releases water into the subducting slab and subsequently leads to the increase of pore fluid pressure and the decrease of effective normal stress,thus causing the occurrence of brittle failure and intermediate-depth earthquakes in subduction zones.The imaging results of the northern Chile subduction zone further indicate that the existence of the double seismic zone is related to the dehydration process of different hydrous minerals.

Analysis on Completeness of Small Earthquake Data in the Northeast Seismic Zone and Its Influence on Seismicity Parameters

Taking the northeast seismic zone as an example and based on the magnitude-frequency distribution principles of the G-R relationship and the study on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the minimum magnitude of completeness M C in each time interval,this paper makes a statistical analysis on the seismicity parameters of the research area and explores the influence of the completeness of small earthquake data on the seismicity parameters and seismic hazard analysis.It shows that the completeness analysis of the regional small earthquakes data provides a possible means for obtaining more accurate seismicity parameters that can better represent the actual regional seismicity level for areas of low seismicity.The research methods of this article and its conclusion can be used as a reference for the completeness analysis of earthquake data and seismic activity research.

A Statistical Analysis on Recent Tidal Triggering of the Earthquake in the Tianshan Seismic Zone

A statistical analysis is done to study the spatio-temporai features of earthquake activity in the Tianshan seismic belt triggered by tide, based on Schuster＇s test. The data we choose is the ML ≥2. 0 earthquakes from January 1, 2010 to August 31, 2012 in eastern Tianshan, and the calculation is on tidal body stress. The results show that the p-value based on the time window smoothing of Schuster＇s test corresponds better with the strong earthquakes in the Tianshan seismic belt, especially for a long time before the November 1, 2011 Nilka Ms6. 0 earthquake, when the p-value of the Schuster＇s test was always lower than the threshold of 0. 05 for tidal trigger of earthquake, but after the Niika Ms6. 0 earthquake, that value was quickly restored to a high level, which reflects a close relationship between the Nilka Ms6. 0 earthquake and the Earth tide. According to the p-value based on the spatial window smoothing of Schuster＇s test, the Nilka Ms6. 0 earthquake was at or near the tidal triggering area. Thus we can see from the spatio-temporal results that the Nilka Ms6. 0 earthquake was obviously triggered by Earth fide.

Research on the Seismic Activity of the Lower Yangtze River-South Yellow Sea Seismic Zone

The Lower Yangtze River-South Yellow Sea Seismic Zone,located at the southeast of the Northern China Seismic Zone, characterized by moderate-strong earthquakes, is an intensive earthquake zone,which is controlled by a series of faults within the Lower Yangtze River-South Yellow Sea Seismic Zone. This article counts and calculates the bvalue,V 4 and energy density value of medium-small earthquakes by taking full advantage of the latest data from regional seismic stations,reviews data of historical earthquakes and seismic structure,and discusses the relationship between spatial distribution of the b-value, historical strong earthquakes and spatial distribution of energy density of medium-small earthquakes,and further investigates the seismic activity of the Lower Yangtze River- South Yellow Sea Seismic Zone. This article obtains seismic activity parameters of the Lower Yangtze River-South Yellow Sea Seismic Zone as calculation parameters for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis,and discusses the trend of this seismic zone in the next one hundred years and deduces the potential seismic hazard region within this seismic zone,which provides references and methods for long-term prediction on seismic activity. The research results are significant to seismic zoning, seismic safety evaluation of engineering sites and long-term prediction of seismic activity.

A Computer Model for Cyclic Activity of Strong Earthquakes in Continental Seismic Zones

Based on the study of activity of earthquakes with M**********】7.0 in China's Mainland,we have found a dynamic pattern,i.e.,the cyclic characteristics in time and migration from one seismic zone to another in space.In order to understand the physical mechanism of this pattern,we use a nonlinear dynamic model to simulate the seismic activity in fault zones under a unified tectonic stress field.The basic elements in our model consist of a Maxwell body and a rigid sliding block.Basic elements in a column represent a fault,and coupling elements connecting different columns simulate the interaction among faults and fault segments.The results provide insights to the cyclic activity of strong earthquakes and to the feature of mutual influence between strong earthquakes in groups in the climax of seismic activity.

Preliminary report of coseismic surface rupture(part)of Türkiye's M_(W)7.8 earthquake by remote sensing interpretation

Both M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes occurred in southeastern Türkiye on February 6,2023,resulting in numerous buildings collapsing and serious casualties.Understanding the distribution of coseismic surface ruptures and secondary disasters surrounding the epicentral area is important for post-earthquake emergency and disaster assessments.High-resolution Maxar and GF-2 satellite data were used after the events to extract the location of the rupture surrounding the first epicentral area.The results show that the length of the interpreted surface rupture zone(part of)is approximately 75 km,with a coseismic sinistral dislocation of 2-3 m near the epicenter;however,this reduced to zero at the tip of the southwest section of the East Anatolia Fault Zone.Moreover,dense soil liquefaction pits were triggered along the rupture trace.These events are in the western region of the Eurasian Seismic Belt and result from the subduction and collision of the Arabian and African Plates toward the Eurasian Plate.The western region of the Chinese mainland and its adjacent areas are in the eastern section of the Eurasian Seismic Belt,where seismic activity is controlled by the collision of the Indian and Eurasian Plates.Both China and Türkiye have independent tectonic histories.

Detailed seismic zoning of the East Kazakhstan region in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,developed by our Institute of Seismology using a new methodological approach for Kazakhstan.The article is about creating the first normative map of the Detailed Seismic Zoning on a probabilistic foundation for the Republic of Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region.We carried out the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard using a methodology consistent with the main provisions of Eurocode 8and updated compared with that used in developing maps of Kazakhstan’s General Seismic Zoning and seismic microzoning of Almaty.The most thorough and current data accessible for the area under consideration were combined with contemporary analytical techniques.Updates have been done to not only the databases being used but also the way seismic sources were shown,including active faults now.On a scale of 1:1000000,precise seismic zoning maps of the East Kazakhstan region were created for two probabilities of exceedance:10%and 2%in 50 years in terms of peak ground accelerations and macroseismic intensities.The obtained seismic hazard distribution is generally consistent with the General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan’s previous findings.However,because active faults were included and a thoroughly revised catalog was used,there are more pronounced zones of increased danger along the fault in the western part of the region.In the west of the territory,acceleration values also increased due to a more accurate consideration of seismotectonic conditions.Zoning maps are the basis for developing new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Using the data of regional seismic network, this paper analyzes the current faulting behaviors of different segments of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone, western Sichuan, and identifies the likely risky segments for potential large earthquakes. The authors map the probable asperities from the abnormally low b-value distribution, develop and employ a method for identifying current faulting behaviors of individual fault segment from the combinations of multiple seismicity parameter values, and make an effort to estimate the average recurrence intervals of character-istic earthquakes by using the parameters of magnitude-frequency relationship of the asperity segment. The result suggests that the studied fault zone contains 5 segments of different current faulting behaviors. Among them, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault has been locked under high stress, its central part is probably an asperity with a relatively large scale. The Xichang-Puge segment of the Zemuhe fault displays very low seismicity under low stress. Both the locked segment and the low-seismicity segment can be outlined on the across-profile of relocated hypocenter depths. The Mianning-Xichang segment is identified to be the one with potential large earth-quake risk, for which the average recurrence interval between the latest M = 6.7 earthquake in 1952 and the next characteristic event is estimated to be 55 to 67 years, and the magnitude of the potential earthquake between 7.0 and 7.5. Also, it has been preliminarily suggested that for a certain fault segment, its faulting behaviors may change and evolve with time gradually.

Analysis of future seismicity of Jing－Jin－Tang region and seven major seismic zones with the extreme－value theory

ＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｆｕｔｕｒｅｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙｏｆＪｉｎｇ－Ｊｉｎ－Ｔａｎｇｒｅｇｉｏｎａｎｄｓｅｖｅｎｍａｊｏｒｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｚｏｎｅｓ ｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｅｘｔｒｅｍｅ－ｖａｌｕｅｔｈｅｏｒｙＲａｎＺＨＯＵ（周冉）ａｎｄＢａｎｇ－ＨｕｔＬＩＮ（...

Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Using the data of regional seismic network, this paper analyzes the current faulting behaviors of different segments of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone, western Sichuan, and identifies the likely risky segments for potential large earthquakes. The authors map the probable asperities from the abnormally low b-value distribution, develop and employ a method for identifying current faulting behaviors of individual fault segment from the combinations of multiple seismicity parameter values, and make an effort to estimate the average recurrence intervals of character-istic earthquakes by using the parameters of magnitude-frequency relationship of the asperity segment. The result suggests that the studied fault zone contains 5 segments of different current faulting behaviors. Among them, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault has been locked under high stress, its central part is probably an asperity with a relatively large scale. The Xichang-Puge segment of the Zemuhe fault displays very low seismicity under low stress. Both the locked segment and the low-seismicity segment can be outlined on the across-profile of relocated hypocenter depths. The Mianning-Xichang segment is identified to be the one with potential large earth-quake risk, for which the average recurrence interval between the latest M = 6.7 earthquake in 1952 and the next characteristic event is estimated to be 55 to 67 years, and the magnitude of the potential earthquake between 7.0 and 7.5. Also, it has been preliminarily suggested that for a certain fault segment, its faulting behaviors may change and evolve with time gradually.

Deformation of the Most Recent Co-seismic Surface Ruptures Along the Garzê–Yushu Fault Zone(Dangjiang Segment)and Tectonic Implications For the Tibetan Plateau

The Garzê–Yushu strike-slip fault in central Tibet is the locus of strong earthquakes（M 〉 7）. The deformation and geometry of the co-seismic surface ruptures are reflected in the surface morphology of the fault and depend on the structure of the upper crust as well as the pre-existing tectonics. Therefore, the most recent co-seismic surface ruptures along the Garzê–Yushu fault zone（Dangjiang segment） reveal the surface deformation of the central Tibetan Plateau. Remote sensing images and field investigations suggest a 85 km long surface rupture zone（striking NW-NWW）, less than 50 m wide, defined by discontinuous fault scarps, right-stepping en echelon tensional cracks and left-stepping mole tracks that point to a left-lateral strike-slip fault. The gullies that cross fault scarps record systematic left-lateral offsets of 1.8 m to 5.0 m owing to the most recent earthquake, with moment magnitude of about M 7.5, in the Dangjiang segment. Geological and geomorphological features suggest that the spatial distribution of the 1738 co-seismic surface rupture zone was controlled by the pre-existing active Garzê–Yushu fault zone（Dangjiang segment）. We confirm that the Garzê–Yushu fault zone, a boundary between the Bayan Har Block to the north and the Qiangtang Block to the south, accommodates the eastward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau and generates strong earthquakes that release the strain energy owing to the relative motion between the Bayan Har and Qiangtang Blocks.

Characteristics of Late-Quaternary Activity and Seismic Risk of the Northeastern Section of the Longmenshan Fault Zone

Following the 2008 Wenchuan M8 earthquake,the seismic risk of the northeastern section of the Longmenshan fault zone and the adjacent Hanzhong basin has become an issue that receives much concern.It is facing,however,the problem of a lack of sufficient data because of little previous work in these regions.The northeastern section of the Longmenshan fault zone includes three major faults：the Qingchuan fault,Chaba-Lin＇ansi fault,and Liangshan south margin fault,with the Hanzhong basin at the northern end.This paper presents investigations of the geometry,motion nature,and activity ages of these three faults,and reveals that they are strike slip with normal faulting,with latest activity in the Late Pleistocene.It implies that this section of the Longmenshan fault zone has been in an extensional setting,probably associated with the influence of the Hanzhong basin.Through analysis of the tectonic relationship between the Longmenshan fault zone and the Hanzhong basin,this work verifies that the Qingchuan fault played an important role in the evolution of the Hanzhong basin,and further studies the evolution model of this basin.Finally,with consideration of the tectonic setting of the Longmenshan fault zone and the Hanzhong basin as well as seismicity of surrounding areas,this work suggests that this region has no tectonic conditions for great earthquakes and only potential strong events in the future.

Influence of uncertainty in delimitation of seismic statistical zone on results of PSHA

The seismic hazard of research area is evaluated by probabilistic analysis method for three different seismic statis-tical zone scenarios. The influence of uncertainty in seismic statistical zone delimiting on the evaluation result is discussed too. It can be seen that for those local sites along zone's border or within areas with vast change of upper bound magnitude among different scenarios the influence on seismic hazard result should not be neglected.

Crustal structure beneath the Qilian Orogen Zone from multiscale seismic tomography

The Qilian Orogen Zone(QOZ), located in the north margin of the Tibetan Plateau, is the key area for understanding the deformation and dynamics process of Tibet. Numerous geological and geophysical studies have been carried out on the mechanics of the Tibetan Plateau deformation and uplift; however, the detailed structure and deformation style of the Qilian Orogen Zone have remained uncertain due to poor geophysical data coverage and limited resolution power of inversion algorithms. In this study, we analyze the P-wave velocity structure beneath the Qilian Orogen Zone, obtained by applying multi-scale seismic tomography technique to P-wave arrival time data recorded by regional seismic networks. The seismic tomography algorithm used in this study employs sparsity constraints on the wavelet representation of the velocity model via L1-norm regularization. This algorithm can deal efficiently with uneven-sampled volumes, and can obtain multi-scale images of the velocity model. Our results can be summarized as follows:(1) The crustal velocity structure is strongly inhomogeneous and consistent with the surface geological setting. Significant low-velocity anomalies exist in the crust of northeastern Tibet, and slight high-velocity anomalies exist beneath the Qaidam Basin and Alxa terrane.(2)The Qilian Orogen Zone can be divided into two main parts by the Laji Shan Faults: the northwestern part with a low-velocity feature, and the southeastern part with a high-velocity feature at the upper and middle crust.(3) Our tomographic images suggest that northwestern and southeastern Qilian Orogen Zones have undergone different tectonic processes. In the northwest Qilian Orogen Zone, the deformation and growth of the Northern Tibetan Plateau has extended to the Heli Shan and Beida Shan region by northward overthrusting at the upper crust and thickening in the lower crust. We speculate that in the southeast Qilian Orogen Zone the deformation and growth of the Northern Tibet Plateau were of strike-slip style at the upper crust; in the lower crust, the evidence suggests ductile shear extrusion style and active frontage extension to the Alxa terrane.(4) The multi-scale seismic tomography technique provides multiscale analysis and sparse constraints, which has allowed to us obtain stable, high-resolution results.