Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Using the data of regional seismic network, this paper analyzes the current faulting behaviors of different segments of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone, western Sichuan, and identifies the likely risky segments for potential large earthquakes. The authors map the probable asperities from the abnormally low b-value distribution, develop and employ a method for identifying current faulting behaviors of individual fault segment from the combinations of multiple seismicity parameter values, and make an effort to estimate the average recurrence intervals of character-istic earthquakes by using the parameters of magnitude-frequency relationship of the asperity segment. The result suggests that the studied fault zone contains 5 segments of different current faulting behaviors. Among them, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault has been locked under high stress, its central part is probably an asperity with a relatively large scale. The Xichang-Puge segment of the Zemuhe fault displays very low seismicity under low stress. Both the locked segment and the low-seismicity segment can be outlined on the across-profile of relocated hypocenter depths. The Mianning-Xichang segment is identified to be the one with potential large earth-quake risk, for which the average recurrence interval between the latest M = 6.7 earthquake in 1952 and the next characteristic event is estimated to be 55 to 67 years, and the magnitude of the potential earthquake between 7.0 and 7.5. Also, it has been preliminarily suggested that for a certain fault segment, its faulting behaviors may change and evolve with time gradually.

Mathematical basis,correlativity and selection of seismicity parameters

Using the analytic expression of seismicity parameters, the dependency and correlativity between the statisticalparameters and seismic frequency or seismic intensity are discussed. The statistical parameters are divided into twokinds. One kind is the regional seismicity parameter, 17 parameters are analyzed in this paper. The other kind isthe seismicity distribution parameter. They are the distribution parameters of time, space and magnitude. The existent base and rationality of distribution parameters depend on the application of distribution model. We analyzeand draw an analogy between the natural probability, Poisson, Weibull distributions and multi-f racial analyticformula in time, space and magnitude. And some examples are given in this paper. The P value and H value of aftershock sequence attenuation, the U value and F value of eanhquake swarm sequence and the entropy of information are discussed preliminarily. Another method about analyzing relationships among time-series curves aregiven. The resemblance relativity degree R,.,, and the relativity degree G,.,, of relative change slope can be usedas the determining values. At last, some preliminary ideas about sifting and using for seismicity parameters are advanced in this paper.

Interrelation between seismicity parameters and delimiting potential seismic sources in a seismic statistical region and its influence on seismic risk estimation

In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 100°-120°E, 29°-42°N for the purpose to solve the problem that abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainties emerge in a certain cities and towns caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region in an inhomogeneous distribution model that considers tempo-spatial nonuniformity of seismic activity. And we have also approached the interrelation between the risk estimation uncertainty of a site caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region and the delimitation of potential sources, as well as the reasons for forming abnormal areas. The results from the research indicate that the seismicity parameter uncertainty has unequal influence on the uncertainty of risk estimation at each site in a statistical region in the inhomogeneous distribution model, which relates to the scheme for delimiting potential sources. Abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty often emerge in the potential sources of Mu greater than or equal 8 (Mu is upper limit of a potential source) and their vicinity. However, this kind of influence is equal in the homogeneous distribution model. The uncertainty of risk estimation of each site depends on its seat. Generally speaking, the sites located in the middle part of a statistical region are only related to the seismicity parameter uncertainty of the region, while the sites situated in or near the juncture of two or three statistical regions might be subject to the synthetic influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of several statistical regions.

Analysis of Seismic Activity in the Middle Part of the North-South Seismic Belt——Joint Study on Deep Seismic Sounding Profile and Seismicity Parameters

Using the rich deep seismic sounding data recorded in the middle part of the NorthSouth Seismic Belt in China,the horizontal and vertical profiles are constructed to obtain the seismic velocity structure,analyze the seismic distribution and calculate the seismic energy and the thickness of the seismogenic layer at the same time.On this basis,the seismicity parameters are calculated using the earthquake catalogue of the study area for the past 40 years,and the relationship between the b-value distribution and the velocity structure is analyzed.The results show an uneven b-value distribution in the study area and a segmented feature along the Longmenshan fault zone.Most of the earthquakes occur in the transition zone anomalies from the positive to the negative.In addition,the thickness of the crust drops from ~60 km to ~48 km from the Southeastern to the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,but the thickness of the seismogenic layer increases gradually.It is speculated that the crustal composition of the Northeastern margin contains more felsic materials and has relatively stronger seismic activities than the Southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,possibly associated with the subduction and compression of the Indian Ocean Plate.

Seismic Acquisition Parameters Analysis for Deep Weak Reflectors in the South Yellow Sea

The Mesozoic-Paleozoic marine residual basin in the South Yellow Sea(SYS) is a significant deep potential hydrocarbon reservoir. However, the imaging of the deep prospecting target is quite challenging due to the specific seismic-geological conditions. In the Central and Wunansha Uplifts, the penetration of the seismic wavefield is limited by the shallow high-velocity layers(HVLs) and the weak reflections in the deep carbonate rocks. With the conventional marine seismic acquisition technique, the deep weak reflection is difficult to image and identify. In this paper, we could confirm through numerical simulation that the combination of multi-level air-gun array and extended cable used in the seismic acquisition is crucial for improving the imaging quality. Based on the velocity model derived from the geological interpretation, we performed two-dimensional finite difference forward modeling. The numerical simulation results show that the use of the multi-level air-gun array can enhance low-frequency energy and that the wide-angle reflection received at far offsets of the extended cable has a higher signal-to-noise ratio(SNR) and higher energy. Therefore, we have demonstrated that the unconventional wide-angle seismic acquisition technique mentioned above could overcome the difficulty in imaging the deep weak reflectors of the SYS, and it may be useful for the design of practical seismic acquisition schemes in this region.

Identification of expected seismic activity areas by forecasting complex seismic-mode parameters in Uzbekistan

In this paper, the author proposed a methodology to reveal expected seismic activation places for coming years by a complex of forecasting parameters of a seismic mode. Areas in Uzbekistan where currently observed anomalies in various parameters of a seismic mode has been revealed. By number of displayed abnormal signs the areas has been ranked based on probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes there. It has prepared schemes of the synoptic forecast of expected seismic activation places in case of occurrence of strong earthquakes in the Central-Asian region.

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Evaluation of Uncertainty of Earthquake Parameters for the Purpose of Seismic Zoning of Iran

An efficient procedure is used for explicit description and evaluation of uncertainty of earthquake parameters in the uniform catalog of earthquakes in Iran and neighboring regions.An inadequate number of local and regional seismographic stations,poor station distribution,and Inadequacy of velocity models have resulted in conspicuous uncertainty in different parameters of recorded events.In a comprehensive seismic hazard analysis such uncertainties should be considered.Uncertainty of magnitude and location of events are evaluated for three different time periods,namely,historical,early instrumental,and modern instrumental time periods,for which existing seismological information differ widely in quantity,quality,and type.It is concluded that an uncertainty of 0.2-0.3 units of magnitude and 10-15 km in epicenter determinations should be considered in the most favorable conditions.None of the hypocenters of earthquakes in Iran can be considered as reliable,unless supported by other information such as

Interrelation among several important links in seismic risk analysis

In order to further reveal the interrelation among division of seismic statistical regions, delimitation of potential seismic sources and estimation of seismicity parameters, we select 21 representative sites located in different places within the range of 100°-120°E, 29°-42°N to study the influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of statistical regions on seismic risk estimations of these sites in the inhomogeneous and homogeneous distribution models. Combining the results from this study and previous ones, we can see that different schemes for dividing seismic statistical regions can change the seismic data in a statistical region. The uncertain data and additional uncertainty in selecting time intervals for seismic statistics will result in uncertainty of seismicity parameters estimation in a statistical region. For the homogeneous model, the larger the variation of this uncertainty is, the greater the uncertain influence on the seismic risk estimation of a site will be, which means that the division of seismic statistical regions makes a major contribution. In a seismic statistical region, the delimitation of potential sources and variant weight assignment of spatial distribution functions can raise the estimated values of ground motion parameters in the place where great earthquake might occur and its vicinity. In these places, the influence of uncertainty in potential source delimitation is very obvious, especially on the absolute magnitude of ground motion parameters （e.g., intensity）, which means that the link of potential source delimitation makes a major effect. Generally speaking, the link of potential source delimitation affects mainly the sites located in the potential sources with the highest and second-high upper-limit earthquake magnitudes or in the vicinity of those with the highest upper-limit magnitude. While for the sites located in the potential sources with low upper-imit magnitudes, the uncertainty influence of statistical region division is larger than that of potential source delimitation.

Application of support vector machine to synthetic earthquake prediction

This paper introduces the method of support vector machine （SVM） into the field of synthetic earthquake prediction, which is a non-linear and complex seismogenic system. As an example, we apply this method to predict the largest annual magnitude for the North China area （30°E-42°E, 108°N-125°N） and the capital region （38°E-41.5°E, 114°N-120°N） on the basis of seismicity parameters and observed precursory data. The corresponding prediction rates for the North China area and the capital region are 64.1% and 75%, respectively, which shows that the method is feasible.

Stress triggering" between different rupture events in several earthquakes

Most strong earthquakes have complex rupture processes. As an approximation, each earthquake can be described as two or more subevents of rupture with time interval of several seconds to several days. In order to discuss the relationship between different subevents, we investigated the rupture process of the 1966 Xingtai, the 1976 Tangshan, the 1990 Gonghe and the 1996 Lijiang earthquake by calculating the static Coulomb failure stress changes produced by the first subevent. The calculation of static stress changes produced by fault slip is based on the formulation of Okada (1992). The result suggests that the static Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) produced by the first subevent have 'triggering' effect on the subsequent subevents which locate in the region where the Coulomb stress change produced by the first event is positive, with the order of magnitude 10-2 [similar to] 10-1 MPa.

Higher degree moment tensor inversion of Mani earthquake using far-field broadband recording

Breakthrough point source model, extended earthquake source model is used to calculate more seismic source parameters in this paper. We express seismic source using higher degree moment tensors, to reduce a Iarge number terms originally presenting in higher degree moment tensor representation, Haskell rupture model is used. We in verted the source parameters of Mani earthquake in Tibet using broad-band body wave of 32 stations of Global Seismograph Network (GSN), the results show that it is a strike-slip fault, rupture direction is 75°, rupture duration is 19 s, the fault plan is φ=77°， δ5=88°, A=0°, the auxiliare plane is φ=347°, δ=90°, k=178°, and the fault dimension is 47 km×28 km. These results will give new quantitative data for earth dynamics and have practical meaning for seismic source tomography research.

A SCR method for uncertainty estimation in geodesy non-linear error propagation: Comparisons and applications

We review three derivative-free methods developed for uncertainty estimation of non-linear error propagation, namely, MC(Monte Carlo), SUT(scaled unscented transformation), and SI(sterling interpolation). In order to avoid preset parameters like as these three methods need, we introduce a new method to uncertainty estimation for the first time, namely, SCR(spherical cubature rule), which is no need for setting parameters. By theoretical derivation, we prove that the precision of uncertainty obtained by SCR can reach second-order. We conduct four synthetic experiments, for the first two experiments, the results obtained by SCR are consistent with the other three methods with optimal setting parameters, but SCR is easier to operate than other three methods, which verifies the superiority of SCR in calculating the uncertainty. For the third experiment, real-time calculation is required, so the MC is hardly feasible. For the forth experiment, the SCR is applied to the inversion of seismic fault parameter which is a common problem in geophysics, and we study the sensitivity of surface displacements to fault parameters with errors. Our results show that the uncertainty of the surface displacements is the magnitude of ±10 mm when the fault length contains a variance of 0.01 km^(2).

Inversion of source process and related studies of the Taiwan Strait earthquake using genetic algorithm

pplying genetic algorithm to inversion of seismic moment tensor solution and using the data of P waveform from digital network and initial motion directions of P waves of Taiwan network stations, we studied the moment tensor solutions and focal parameters of the earthquake of M=7.3 on 16 September of 1994 in Taiwan Strait and other four quakes of ML5.8 in the near region (21°～26°N, 115°～120°E). Among the five earthquakes, the quake of M=7.3 on September 16, 1994 in Taiwan Strait is the strongest one in the southeastern coast area since Nan′ao earthquake of M=7.3 in 1918. The results show that moment tensor solution of M=7.3 earthquake is mainly doublecouple component, and is normal fault whose fault plane is near NW. The strike of the fault plane resembles that of the distributive bands of earthquakes before the main event and fracture pattern shown by aftershocks. The tension stress axis of focal mechanism is about horizontal, near in NE strike, the compressive stress axis is approximately vertical, near in NWW strike. It seems that this quake is controlled by the force of Philippine plate′s pressing Eurasian plate in NW direction. But from the viewpoint of P axis of near vertical and T axis of near horizontal, it is a normal fault of strong tensibility. There are relatively big difference between focal mechanism solution of this quake and those of the four other strong quakes. The complexity of source mechanism solution of these quakes represents the complexity of the process of the strait earthquake sequences.

The space and time distribution characteristics of the shear stress field for the sequence of the Wuding earthquake

Follow Chen and Duda's model of spectral fall-off of ω~3, the dependence of peak parameters of ground motion, peak displacement d_m, peak velocity vin and peak acceleration a_m, upon the environment stress τ_o-values are studied using near source seismic digital recordings for the sequence of the Wuding, Yunnan, M = 6.5 earthquake, in which, as a new thought, the peak parameters are assumed to be related to the medium Q-value. Three formulae for estimating the environment stress τ_o-values by the peak parameters of three types of ground motions are derived. Using these formulae, the environment stress τ_o-values are calculated for the sequence of the Wuding earthquake. The result show that τ_o-values calculated by the three formulae are constant largely, the averages of τ_o are in the range of 5.0-35 MPa for most earthquakes. It belongs to the high-stress earthquakes sequence: the high-stress values are restricted to the relatively small area closely near to the epicenter of the main shock. The fine distribu tion structure for the contours of the environment stress τ_o-values is related closely to the strong aftershocks. The analysis of spatial and temporal feature of To-values suggests that the earthquakes sequence in a rupture process generated at the specific intersection zone of seismo-tectonics under high-stress background.

Seismic response of precast reinforced concrete wall subjected to cyclic in-plane and constant out-of-plane loading

This paper provides insight into the seismic behavior of a full-scale precast reinforced concrete wall under in-plane cyclic loading combined with out-of-plane loading replicated by sand backfill to simulate the actual condition of basement walls.The tested wall exhibited flexural cracks,owing to the high aspect ratio and considerable out-of-plane movement due to lateral pressure from the backfill.The wall performed satisfactorily by exhibiting competent seismic parameters and deformation characteristics governed by its ductile response in the nonlinear phase during the test with smaller residual drift.Numerical analysis was conducted to validate experimental findings,which complied with each other.The numerical model was used to conduct parametric studies to study the effect of backfill density and aspect ratio on seismic response of the proposed precast wall system.The in-plane capacity of walls reduced,while deformation characteristics were unaffected by the increase in backfill density.An increase in aspect ratio leads to a reduction in in-plane capacity and an increase in drift.Curves between the ratio of in-plane yield capacity and design shear load of walls are proposed for the backfill density,which may be adopted to determine the in-plane yield capacity of the basement walls based on their design shear.