An adaptive physics-informed deep learning method for pore pressure prediction using seismic data

Accurate prediction of formation pore pressure is essential to predict fluid flow and manage hydrocarbon production in petroleum engineering.Recent deep learning technique has been receiving more interest due to the great potential to deal with pore pressure prediction.However,most of the traditional deep learning models are less efficient to address generalization problems.To fill this technical gap,in this work,we developed a new adaptive physics-informed deep learning model with high generalization capability to predict pore pressure values directly from seismic data.Specifically,the new model,named CGP-NN,consists of a novel parametric features extraction approach(1DCPP),a stacked multilayer gated recurrent model(multilayer GRU),and an adaptive physics-informed loss function.Through machine training,the developed model can automatically select the optimal physical model to constrain the results for each pore pressure prediction.The CGP-NN model has the best generalization when the physicsrelated metricλ=0.5.A hybrid approach combining Eaton and Bowers methods is also proposed to build machine-learnable labels for solving the problem of few labels.To validate the developed model and methodology,a case study on a complex reservoir in Tarim Basin was further performed to demonstrate the high accuracy on the pore pressure prediction of new wells along with the strong generalization ability.The adaptive physics-informed deep learning approach presented here has potential application in the prediction of pore pressures coupled with multiple genesis mechanisms using seismic data.

The prediction of projectile-target intersection for moving tank based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis

To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.

AFSTGCN:Prediction for multivariate time series using an adaptive fused spatial-temporal graph convolutional network

The prediction for Multivariate Time Series(MTS)explores the interrelationships among variables at historical moments,extracts their relevant characteristics,and is widely used in finance,weather,complex industries and other fields.Furthermore,it is important to construct a digital twin system.However,existing methods do not take full advantage of the potential properties of variables,which results in poor predicted accuracy.In this paper,we propose the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network(AFSTGCN).First,to address the problem of the unknown spatial-temporal structure,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph(AFSTG)layer.Specifically,we fuse the spatial-temporal graph based on the interrelationship of spatial graphs.Simultaneously,we construct the adaptive adjacency matrix of the spatial-temporal graph using node embedding methods.Subsequently,to overcome the insufficient extraction of disordered correlation features,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional(AFSTGC)module.The module forces the reordering of disordered temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal dependencies into rule-like data.AFSTGCN dynamically and synchronously acquires potential temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal correlations,thereby fully extracting rich hierarchical feature information to enhance the predicted accuracy.Experiments on different types of MTS datasets demonstrate that the model achieves state-of-the-art single-step and multi-step performance compared with eight other deep learning models.

Research on the Control Strategy of Micro Wind-Hydrogen Coupled System Based on Wind Power Prediction and Hydrogen Storage System Charging/Discharging Regulation

This paper addresses the micro wind-hydrogen coupled system,aiming to improve the power tracking capability of micro wind farms,the regulation capability of hydrogen storage systems,and to mitigate the volatility of wind power generation.A predictive control strategy for the micro wind-hydrogen coupled system is proposed based on the ultra-short-term wind power prediction,the hydrogen storage state division interval,and the daily scheduled output of wind power generation.The control strategy maximizes the power tracking capability,the regulation capability of the hydrogen storage system,and the fluctuation of the joint output of the wind-hydrogen coupled system as the objective functions,and adaptively optimizes the control coefficients of the hydrogen storage interval and the output parameters of the system by the combined sigmoid function and particle swarm algorithm(sigmoid-PSO).Compared with the real-time control strategy,the proposed predictive control strategy can significantly improve the output tracking capability of the wind-hydrogen coupling system,minimize the gap between the actual output and the predicted output,significantly enhance the regulation capability of the hydrogen storage system,and mitigate the power output fluctuation of the wind-hydrogen integrated system,which has a broad practical application prospect.

Adaptive Momentum-Backpropagation Algorithm for Flood Prediction and Management in the Internet of Things

Flooding is a hazardous natural calamity that causes significant damage to lives and infrastructure in the real world.Therefore,timely and accurate decision-making is essential for mitigating flood-related damages.The traditional flood prediction techniques often encounter challenges in accuracy,timeliness,complexity in handling dynamic flood patterns and leading to substandard flood management strategies.To address these challenges,there is a need for advanced machine learning models that can effectively analyze Internet of Things(IoT)-generated flood data and provide timely and accurate flood predictions.This paper proposes a novel approach-the Adaptive Momentum and Backpropagation(AM-BP)algorithm-for flood prediction and management in IoT networks.The AM-BP model combines the advantages of an adaptive momentum technique with the backpropagation algorithm to enhance flood prediction accuracy and efficiency.Real-world flood data is used for validation,demonstrating the superior performance of the AM-BP algorithm compared to traditional methods.In addition,multilayer high-end computing architecture(MLCA)is used to handle weather data such as rainfall,river water level,soil moisture,etc.The AM-BP’s real-time abilities enable proactive flood management,facilitating timely responses and effective disaster mitigation.Furthermore,the AM-BP algorithm can analyze large and complex datasets,integrating environmental and climatic factors for more accurate flood prediction.The evaluation result shows that the AM-BP algorithm outperforms traditional approaches with an accuracy rate of 96%,96.4%F1-Measure,97%Precision,and 95.9%Recall.The proposed AM-BP model presents a promising solution for flood prediction and management in IoT networks,contributing to more resilient and efficient flood control strategies,and ensuring the safety and well-being of communities at risk of flooding.

Prediction of film ratings based on domain adaptive transfer learning

This paper examines the prediction of film ratings.Firstly,in the data feature engineering,feature construction is performed based on the original features of the film dataset.Secondly,the clustering algorithm is utilized to remove singular film samples,and feature selections are carried out.When solving the problem that film samples of the target domain are unlabelled,it is impossible to train a model and address the inconsistency in the feature dimension for film samples from the source domain.Therefore,the domain adaptive transfer learning model combined with dimensionality reduction algorithms is adopted in this paper.At the same time,in order to reduce the prediction error of models,the stacking ensemble learning model for regression is also used.Finally,through comparative experiments,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified,which proves to be better predicting film ratings in the target domain.

Prediction-based Manufacturing Center Self-adaptive Demand Side Energy Optimization in Cyber Physical Systems

Cyber physical systems（CPS） recently emerge as a new technology which can provide promising approaches to demand side management（DSM）, an important capability in industrial power systems. Meanwhile, the manufacturing center is a typical industrial power subsystem with dozens of high energy consumption devices which have complex physical dynamics. DSM, integrated with CPS, is an effective methodology for solving energy optimization problems in manufacturing center. This paper presents a prediction-based manufacturing center self-adaptive energy optimization method for demand side management in cyber physical systems. To gain prior knowledge of DSM operating results, a sparse Bayesian learning based componential forecasting method is introduced to predict 24-hour electric load levels for specific industrial areas in China. From this data, a pricing strategy is designed based on short-term load forecasting results. To minimize total energy costs while guaranteeing manufacturing center service quality, an adaptive demand side energy optimization algorithm is presented. The proposed scheme is tested in a machining center energy optimization experiment. An AMI sensing system is then used to measure the demand side energy consumption of the manufacturing center. Based on the data collected from the sensing system, the load prediction-based energy optimization scheme is implemented. By employing both the PSO and the CPSO method, the problem of DSM in the manufac^ring center is solved. The results of the experiment show the self-adaptive CPSO energy optimization method enhances optimization by 5% compared with the traditional PSO optimization method.

Characteristics Prediction Method of Electro-hydraulic Servo Valve Based on Rough Set and Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System

Synthesis characteristics of the electro-hydraulic servo valve are key factors to determine eligibility of the hydraulic production. Testing all synthesis characteristics of the electro-hydraulic servo valve after assembling leads to high repair rate and reject rate, so accurate prediction for the synthesis characteristics in the industrial production is particular important in decreasing the repair rate and the reject rate of the product. However, the research in forecasting synthesis characteristics of the electro-hydraulic servo valve is rare. In this work, a hybrid prediction method was proposed based on rough set（RS） and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system（ANFIS） in order to predict synthesis characteristics of electro-hydraulic servo valve. Since the geometric factors affecting the synthesis characteristics of the electro-hydraulic servo valve are from workers＇ experience, the inputs of the prediction method are uncertain. RS-based attributes reduction was used as the preprocessor, and then the exact geometric factors affecting the synthesis characteristics of the electro-hydraulic servo valve were obtained. On the basis of the exact geometric factors, ANFIS was used to build the final prediction model. A typical electro-hydraulic servo valve production was used to demonstrate the proposed prediction method. The prediction results showed that the proposed prediction method was more applicable than the artificial neural networks（ANN） in predicting the synthesis characteristics of electro-hydraulic servo valve, and the proposed prediction method was a powerful tool to predict synthesis characteristics of the electro-hydraulic servo valve. Moreover, with the use of the advantages of RS and ANFIS, the highly effective forecasting framework in this study can also be applied to other problems involving synthesis characteristics forecasting.

A precise tidal prediction mechanism based on the combination of harmonic analysis and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system model

An efficient and accurate prediction of a precise tidal level in estuaries and coastal areas is indispensable for the management and decision-making of human activity in the field wok of marine engineering. The variation of the tidal level is a time-varying process. The time-varying factors including interference from the external environment that cause the change of tides are fairly complicated. Furthermore, tidal variations are affected not only by periodic movement of celestial bodies but also by time-varying interference from the external environment. Consequently, for the efficient and precise tidal level prediction, a neuro-fuzzy hybrid technology based on the combination of harmonic analysis and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system（ANFIS）model is utilized to construct a precise tidal level prediction system, which takes both advantages of the harmonic analysis method and the ANFIS network. The proposed prediction model is composed of two modules： the astronomical tide module caused by celestial bodies’ movement and the non-astronomical tide module caused by various meteorological and other environmental factors. To generate a fuzzy inference system（FIS） structure,three approaches which include grid partition（GP）, fuzzy c-means（FCM） and sub-clustering（SC） are used in the ANFIS network constructing process. Furthermore, to obtain the optimal ANFIS based prediction model, large numbers of simulation experiments are implemented for each FIS generating approach. In this tidal prediction study, the optimal ANFIS model is used to predict the non-astronomical tide module, while the conventional harmonic analysis model is used to predict the astronomical tide module. The final prediction result is performed by combining the estimation outputs of the harmonious analysis model and the optimal ANFIS model. To demonstrate the applicability and capability of the proposed novel prediction model, measured tidal level samples of Fort Pulaski tidal station are selected as the testing database. Simulation and experimental results confirm that the proposed prediction approach can achieve precise predictions for the tidal level with high accuracy, satisfactory convergence and stability.

CSI Feedback-based CS for Underwater Acoustic Adaptive Modulation OFDM System with Channel Prediction

In this paper, we investigate the performance of adaptive modulation （AM） orthogonal frequency division multiplexing （OFDM） system in underwater acoustic （UWA） communications. The aim is to solve the problem of large feedback overhead for channel state information （CSI） in every subcarrier. A novel CSI feedback scheme is proposed based on the theory of compressed sensing （CS）. We propose a feedback from the receiver that only feedback the sparse channel parameters. Additionally, prediction of the channel state is proposed every several symbols to realize the AM in practice. We describe a linear channel prediction algorithm which is used in adaptive transmission. This system has been tested in the real underwater acoustic channel. The linear channel prediction makes the AM transmission techniques more feasible for acoustic channel communications. The simulation and experiment show that significant improvements can be obtained both in bit error rate （BER） and throughput in the AM scheme compared with the fixed Quadrature Phase Shift Keying （QPSK） modulation scheme. Moreover, the performance with standard CS outperforms the Discrete Cosine Transform （DCT） method.

Bottleneck Prediction Method Based on Improved Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in Semiconductor Manufacturing System

Semiconductor manufacturing (SM) system is one of the most complicated hybrid processes involved continuously variable dynamical systems and discrete event dynamical systems. The optimization and scheduling of semiconductor fabrication has long been a hot research direction in automation. Bottleneck is the key factor to a SM system, which seriously influences the throughput rate, cycle time, time-delivery rate, etc. Efficient prediction for the bottleneck of a SM system provides the best support for the consequent scheduling. Because categorical data (product types, releasing strategies) and numerical data (work in process, processing time, utilization rate, buffer length, etc.) have significant effect on bottleneck, an improved adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was adopted in this study to predict bottleneck since conventional neural network-based methods accommodate only numerical inputs. In this improved ANFIS, the contribution of categorical inputs to firing strength is reflected through a transformation matrix. In order to tackle high-dimensional inputs, reduce the number of fuzzy rules and obtain high prediction accuracy, a fuzzy c-means method combining binary tree linear division method was applied to identify the initial structure of fuzzy inference system. According to the experimental results, the main-bottleneck and sub-bottleneck of SM system can be predicted accurately with the proposed method.

An Intelligent Neural Networks System for Adaptive Learning and Prediction of a Bioreactor Benchmark Process

The adaptive learning and prediction of a highly nonlinear and time-varying bioreactor benchmark process is studied using Neur-On-Line, a graphical tool kit for developing and deploying neural networks in the G2 real time intelligent environment,and a new modified Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb, and Shanno （BFGS） quasi-Newton algorithm. The modified BFGS algorithm for the adaptive learning of back propagation （BP） neural networks is developed and embedded into NeurOn-Line by introducing a new search method of learning rate to the full memory BFGS algorithm. Simulation results show that the adaptive learning and prediction neural network system can quicklv track the time-varving and nonlinear behavior of the bioreactor.

Prediction of Compressive Strength of Self-Compacting Concrete Using Intelligent Computational Modeling

In the present scenario,computational modeling has gained much importance for the prediction of the properties of concrete.This paper depicts that how computational intelligence can be applied for the prediction of compressive strength of Self Compacting Concrete(SCC).Three models,namely,Extreme Learning Machine(ELM),Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System(ANFIS)and Multi Adaptive Regression Spline(MARS)have been employed in the present study for the prediction of compressive strength of self compacting concrete.The contents of cement(c),sand(s),coarse aggregate(a),fly ash(f),water/powder(w/p)ratio and superplasticizer(sp)dosage have been taken as inputs and 28 days compressive strength(fck)as output for ELM,ANFIS and MARS models.A relatively large set of data including 80 normalized data available in the literature has been taken for the study.A comparison is made between the results obtained from all the above-mentioned models and the model which provides best fit is established.The experimental results demonstrate that proposed models are robust for determination of compressive strength of self-compacting concrete.

EXPERT SYSTEM FOR SINTER CHEMICAL COMPOSITION CONTROL BASED ON ADAPTIVE PREDICTION

In order to stabilize the sinter chemical composition,the expert system for composition control based on adaptive prediction has been developed on the basis of modern control theory and artificial intelligence.It has been verified by using real data at No.3 Sintering Plant of Anshan Iron and Steel Co.,and satisfactory results have been obtained.

Prediction of seawater pH by bidirectional gated recurrent neural network with attention under phase space reconstruction:case study of the coastal waters of Beihai,China

Marine life is very sensitive to changes in pH.Even slight changes can cause ecosystems to collapse.Therefore,understanding the future pH of seawater is of great significance for the protection of the marine environment.At present,the monitoring method of seawater pH has been matured.However,how to accurately predict future changes has been lacking effective solutions.Based on this,the model of bidirectional gated recurrent neural network with multi-headed self-attention based on improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise combined with phase space reconstruction(ICPBGA)is proposed to achieve seawater pH prediction.To verify the validity of this model,pH data of two monitoring sites in the coastal sea area of Beihai,China are selected to verify the effect.At the same time,the ICPBGA model is compared with other excellent models for predicting chaotic time series,and root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),and coefficient of determination(R2)are used as performance evaluation indicators.The R2 of the ICPBGA model at Sites 1 and 2 are above 0.9,and the prediction errors are also the smallest.The results show that the ICPBGA model has a wide range of applicability and the most satisfactory prediction effect.The prediction method in this paper can be further expanded and used to predict other marine environmental indicators.

Unsupervised Domain Adaptation Based on Discriminative Subspace Learning for Cross-Project Defect Prediction

:Cross-project defect prediction(CPDP)aims to predict the defects on target project by using a prediction model built on source projects.The main problem in CPDP is the huge distribution gap between the source project and the target project,which prevents the prediction model from performing well.Most existing methods overlook the class discrimination of the learned features.Seeking an effective transferable model from the source project to the target project for CPDP is challenging.In this paper,we propose an unsupervised domain adaptation based on the discriminative subspace learning(DSL)approach for CPDP.DSL treats the data from two projects as being from two domains and maps the data into a common feature space.It employs crossdomain alignment with discriminative information from different projects to reduce the distribution difference of the data between different projects and incorporates the class discriminative information.Specifically,DSL first utilizes subspace learning based domain adaptation to reduce the distribution gap of data between different projects.Then,it makes full use of the class label information of the source project and transfers the discrimination ability of the source project to the target project in the common space.Comprehensive experiments on five projects verify that DSL can build an effective prediction model and improve the performance over the related competing methods by at least 7.10%and 11.08%in terms of G-measure and AUC.

Prediction of Rural Residents’ Consumption Expenditure Based on Lasso and Adaptive Lasso Methods

When the variable of model is large, the Lasso method and the Adaptive Lasso method can effectively select variables. This paper prediction the rural residents’ consumption expenditure in China, based on respectively using the Lasso method and the Adaptive Lasso method. The results showed that both can effectively and accurately choose the appropriate variable, but the Adaptive Lasso method is better than the Lasso method in prediction accuracy and prediction error. It shows that in variable selection and parameter estimation, Adaptive Lasso method is better than the Lasso method.

Traffic prediction using a self-adjusted evolutionary neural network

Short-term prediction of traffic flow is one of the most essential elements of all proactive traffic control systems.The aim of this paper is to provide a model based on neural networks(NNs)for multi-step-ahead traffic prediction.NNs'dependency on parameter setting is the major challenge in using them as a predictor.Given the fact that the best combination of NN parameters results in the minimum error of predicted output,the main problem is NN optimization.So,it is viable to set the best combination of the parameters according to a specific traffic behavior.On the other hand,an automatic method—which is applicable in general cases—is strongly desired to set appropriate parameters for neural networks.This paper defines a self-adjusted NN using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II(NSGA-II)as a multi-objective optimizer for short-term prediction.NSGA-II is used to optimize the number of neurons in the first and second layers of the NN,learning ratio and slope of the activation function.This model addresses the challenge of optimizing a multi-output NN in a self-adjusted way.Performance of the developed network is evaluated by application to both univariate and multivariate traffic flow data from an urban highway.Results are analyzed based on the performance measures,showing that the genetic algorithm tunes the NN as well without any manually pre-adjustment.The achieved prediction accuracy is calculated with multiple measures such as the root mean square error(RMSE),and the RMSE value is 10 and 12 in the best configuration of the proposed model for single and multi-step-ahead traffic flow prediction,respectively.

Supply Chain Finance Credit Risk Evaluation Method Based on Self-Adaption Weight

Credit risk is the core issue of supply chain finance. In the supply chain, problems happened in different enterprises can influent the whole to different degrees through transferring, thus statuses of all enterprises and their different influences should be considered when evaluating the supply chain’s credit risk. We examine the characters of supply chain network and complex network, use the local growing complex network to simulate the real supply chain, use cluster analysis to classify the company into several levels;Introducing each level’s self-adaption weight formula according to the company’s quantity and degrees of this level and use the weight to improve the credit evaluation method. The research results indicate that complex network can be used to simulate the supply chain. The credit risk evaluation (CRE) of an enterprise level with bigger note degrees has a greater weight in the supply chain system’s CRE, thus has greater effect on the whole chain. Considering different influences of different enterprise levels can improve credit risk evaluation method’s sensitivity.

Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller for Compensations of Single Line-to-ground Fault in Resonant Grounded Power Distribution Networks

An nonlinear model predictive controller(NMPC)is proposed in this paper for compensations of single line-to-ground(SLG)faults in resonant grounded power distribution networks(RGPDNs),which reduces the likelihood of power line bushfire due to electric faults.Residual current compensation(RCC)inverters with arc suppression coils(ASCs)in RGPDNs are controlled using the proposed NMPC to provide appropri-ate compensations during SLG faults.The proposed NMPC is incorporated with the estimation of ASC inductance,where the estimation is carried out based on voltage and current measure-ments from the neutral point of the power distribution net-work.The compensation scheme is developed in the discrete time using the equivalent circuit of RGPDNs.The proposed NMPC for RCC inverters ensures that the desired current is in-jected into the neutral point during SLG faults,which is veri-fied through both simulations and control hardware-in-the-loop(CHIL)validations.Comparative results are also presented against an integral sliding mode controller(ISMC)by demon-strating the capability of power line bushfire mitigation.